BTC daily – back above the mid-band after the $62K flush, but the ribbon still says be careful

Been watching BTC grind sideways on the daily for a couple weeks now and wanted to put my read out there, curious where other people are at.

The setup for me is this. We broke the uptrend late last year, capitulated into the low-$60s in February, and bounced. Price is now sitting at around $75.7K, which puts us back above the Bollinger mid-band near $74K for the first time in a while. That's the part that's actually interesting – the mid-band reclaim is the first thing bulls have done right since the flush. Whether it holds on the first retest is the question I can't answer yet.

Problem is the EMAs are still stacked badly overhead. The 10/20 are flattening and starting to curl up toward price, which is fine, that's what you'd expect on a bounce. But the 50 is sitting right in the $78-80K zone, and the 200 is much higher up near the old distribution block around $90-92K. Until we get a daily close back through the 50, I don't think the "reclaim" narrative really holds water. It's just a dead-cat bounce argument until proven otherwise.

Bands-wise, they expanded hard on the flush (obviously) and are now contracting again. RSI crawled out of oversold and is hanging around the 50s – not overbought, not stretched, just kind of neutral. Feels like the chart is genuinely undecided, which matches how the price action reads.

The levels I actually care about: $74K is where we are, that's the mid-band. $68K below that is the last proper pivot low before the flush. $62K underneath is the line I don't want to see revisited because that would basically break the whole bounce thesis. On the upside, $78-80K is the first wall (EMA 50 and prior structure both sit there), and then not much until $90-92K.

Honestly leaning cautiously constructive while we hold the mid-band, but it's a weak "constructive" – I'd want to see a $74K retest hold cleanly with RSI staying above 50 before I got more interested. If we lose $68K on a daily close, I'd stop looking at longs entirely and let it find a bottom.