SPY 710.80 premarket. my system literally reads STAY OUT / SCALP ONLY 16% conf. kings stacked tight at 710 and 715, forces fighting each other. thats the whole setup
net gex flipped negative (-9.38M) but spot is above zgl. mixed signals. the kings are roughly equal so this is range-bound until one side breaks clean
yeah i know net gex red usually means trend day. not today. the magnets are too evenly matched and sitting right where spot is. when kings cancel out you get chop, not trend. at least until one side breaks
the map top down:
* 725 CW far cap
* 720 CW $9.51M = hard ceiling
* 715 king▲ + sentry $13.85M = primary resistance
* 713 sentry
* 712 sentry
* 711 CW flip (interesting $11M stack on day 2)
* 710.80 spot
* 710 king▼ $15.96M = THE floor
* 707 sentry -$4.66M (air pocket starts here)
* 705 -$8.54M (no support)
* 702 sentry
* 700 PW -$10.91M = primary magnet below
* 693 PW -$7.05M = stretch target
monday plays:
chop (my primary, 50%) pins 710-715 all session. kings equal = range bound. scalp the rails, dont chase. long 710.25 stop <710. short 714.75 stop >715. small size tight stops. the signal literally says scalp only, gotta respect it
bear break (30%) loses 710 on vol >1.3x avg. air pocket underneath means NO support til 705. this is where it gets fun. entry: short <710 on close confirm w/ vol. TP 705, stretch 700 PW. stop above 711. if VIX pops thru 20 the stretch to 700 becomes base case
bull break (20%) reclaims 715 w/ conviction. clears the sentry wall + king ceiling in one move. dealers chase higher. entry: long >715 on vol. TP 718, stretch 720 CW. stop <713
first 15 min tells you everything:
opens and pins 711-714 = chop mode. scalp the rails no size
opens and dumps thru 710 on vol = short gamm amp path. ride to 705/700
opens and rips thru 715 on vol = bulls have it. ride to 720 CW
the override variable:
net gex is mildly negative which means IF either king breaks, it goes further than normal. dealers amplify the break. chop is my primary today but the tails are fatter than they look. the air pocket below 710 is where the real money is if you catch the break
bottom line:
mixed signals dont trade em. when the system says stay out it means scalp it or skip it. kings equal = pin. break below 710 = fast slide to 700. break above 715 = grind to 720
710 is THE floor
above = 715 pin zone then 720 CW cap
below = air pocket to 705 then 700 PW magnet
Posted by Background-Success90