Duration matters more than peak price and the market is starting to price that in

There’s a big difference between oil briefly touching $120 and averaging close to it over a quarter or more. The recent tone from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal suggests the market is starting to think in terms of duration, not just peaks.

If Brent averages even $100–110 over multiple quarters, that likely keeps retail fuel in the $4.30–4.60 range. For NXXT, that translates into annual revenue somewhere around $120–130M, compared to $80M baseline levels.

But if disruption persists longer and pushes averages closer to $115–120, then you’re looking at retail closer to $4.60–4.80, which pushes revenue toward $130M+ territory.

So the difference between scenarios isn’t small. It’s tens of millions in revenue depending on how long pricing stays elevated.

That’s why the “Hormuz duration” narrative matters so much. It’s not about the spike, it’s about how long the system stays under stress.

Not Advice