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Goldman Sachs said rising oil prices and other impacts from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will reduce U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, and added the probability of a recession in 2023 is now at 20% to 30%.
Economists at the bank cut their estimate for 2022 GDP growth to 1.7% from 2% on a fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis. They wrote in a note to clients the prediction implies economic expansion will be down in the first and second quarters, as well as the full year, noting higher oil and food prices will shrink Americans’ disposable income.
XPO Logistics CEO Brad Jacobs has seen a few recessions in his many decades building and leading industrial companies.
And while he acknowledges recessions are scary stuff, the dealmaking exec isn’t yet ready to predict a U.S. recession this year amid soaring energy prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
“I have seen a few recessions over my career and they aren’t fun,” Jacobs said on Yahoo Finance Live. “I don’t know that we are close to a recession. Right now the consumer is very, very strong and the industrial economy is in its early beginnings of growth. We do have to watch the effect of the European war and how that affects the world economy. We do have to look at how oil prices affect the world. And we do have to see how the Fed lands the plane in terms of raising interest rates in a careful way. But we are not close to a recession, absent some big geopolitical jolt. There is too much strength in the economy right now.
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Thanks for watching the video [ RECESSION COMING?……THE TRUTH ]