Trying to separate signal from noise in speculative setups

Been following a small company where there’s a lot of discussion online, but very little new information.
What’s real:
Official filings exist
Some strategic direction has been communicated
What’s not clear:
Timeline on execution
Whether key deals actually close
When/if major catalysts happen
Yet most of the conversation seems driven by speculation rather than updates.
How do you guys filter:
Actual developments
vs
Narrative momentum?