I am working on a project trying to operationalize Shiller's narrative economics by tracking which economic stories spread through online discussion, scoring attention as a z-score against rolling baseline, and running an SIR-style epidemic model per narrative to see where each sits in its lifecycle. Emotion z-scores (fear, greed, hope, skepticism, euphoria) run alongside.
Shiller's point is that the contagious stories often look obvious in hindsight but quietly built for years ("new economy", "houses always go up"). This resonates with my own observations and therefore i build a model and dashboard to monitor this. The model tracks a given set of narratives (see below)
What economically meaningful narratives do you think are moving capital that wouldn't fit any of tthe labels below? More interested in structural ones than headline noise.
Current set: stagflation, fed_pivot, geopolitical_risk, energy_insecurity, crypto_adoption, AI_boom, commodities_supercycle, housing affordability, deglobalization, debt_sustainability, inflation, crypto_adoption, trade protectionism
Am I missing any narratives in a Shiller-style tracking model?
byu/atc2017 inAskEconomics
Posted by atc2017