Over the last few months, the BLS has noted consecutive net job losses in the information and financial sectors, while industries requiring physical labor (notably healthcare and social assistance) have seen consistent job gains.

    Looking ahead to 2028, we will have roughly 128 million Gen X and Baby Boomer individuals requiring increased medical and social assistance. It seems AI is pushing labor out of the knowledge sector just as a massive demographic wave increases demand for physical human care.

    I have a few macroeconomic questions regarding where this leads:

    1. Regarding Wage Dynamics: Because of this massive demand spike and the shift of human labor into care roles, could the labor-wage market for healthcare and social assistance workers see explosive increases similar to what we saw in the information sector during the internet boom? Or does the inability to scale physical care prevent this?
    2. Regarding the Automation Lifecycle & Recursive Capital: If technological gains eventually allow us to physically automate these care and physical labor industries, what is the transitional lifecycle of the workforce? As the human labor pool decreases, does it initially spawn a new subcategory of human "automation service laborers" to maintain the systems? Furthermore, if those human roles are eventually replaced, do we see the creation of a recursive loop of non-human service machines maintaining other machines? Does the growth of this non-human capital layer expand into infinity to sustain the economy?
    3. Regarding Total Productivity & The Resource Frontier: Assuming this infinite loop of non-human automation is achieved, does GDP growth scale infinitely until it is entirely constrained by physical resources (energy, raw materials, land)? If earthly resources become the primary bottleneck, does this inherently direct massive capital investment toward frontier technologies (like space exploration for off-world resource extraction or advanced material sciences) to continuously push the boundary of physical limits?
    4. Regarding Wealth Distribution & The Labor Force: Do the productivity gains of mass physical automation benefit all participants of the economy equally over time, or are those gains strictly limited to the owners of the capital (those closest to the creation, distribution, and implementation of the technology)? If the gains are entirely concentrated and formal employment shrinks drastically, what happens to the displaced workforce? Does this structural shift force policymakers to explore mass-scale universal basic income (UBI) simply to maintain consumer demand and a functioning system? Alternatively, without policy intervention, do we risk mass starvation, or would a large subset of the population figure out a way to survive by building parallel, hyper-local economies completely separate from an automated system controlled by a few market participants?

    I'd love to hear some economic perspectives on how these intersecting trends might play out long-term, and what historical precedents or models best apply to this scenario.

    Will AI labor disruptions and aging demographics force a shift toward a highly-valued "care economy"? And what happens if physical labor is automated too?
    byu/Significant_Pay_3462 inAskEconomics



    Posted by Significant_Pay_3462

    Leave A Reply