Hims & Hers (HIMS) What Moves Hims From Here?

Q1 2026 looked ugly on the headline and entirely different on the substance: this is the trough quarter of a deliberate strategic pivot, and Q1 captured roughly one week of full branded Ozempic and Wegovy sales after the late-March launch. The transition’s costs are all in the print. Almost none of the new revenue is.

The numbers. Revenue: $608.1M, +4% YoY, missing $616.85M consensus. GAAP EPS: -$0.40 vs Street +$0.03. Net loss: $92.1M, swinging from +$49.5M last year.

Gross margin: 65%, down 800 bps and including $33.5M of restructuring charges for the compounded-GLP-1 write-down. Adjusted EBITDA: $44.3M, -51% YoY. ARPU: $80, down from $85. U.S. revenue: -8% YoY as compounded GLP-1s were phased out. Subscribers grew 9% to 2.584M, a sharp deceleration from the 111% top-line growth in this same quarter last year.

The parts that recalibrate the picture. Rest-of-world revenue: $78.2M from $7.3M, +969% YoY, validating the international diversification thesis. FY2026 revenue raised to $2.8B-$3.0B (+$100M on both ends) and Q2 guide: $680-$700M, well above consensus and implying ~16-19% sequential acceleration. The Q2 raise is the most important number in the report. It reflects branded GLP-1s flowing through plus the new $39-$149/month weight-loss membership program (med pricing as low as $149/month) plus the absence of the lawsuit overhang. The Eucalyptus acquisition closes in roughly three weeks, bringing $700-$900M of incremental revenue (post-close GAAP recognition only). Adjusted EBITDA was cut $25M to $275M-$350M, but the margin guide was raised to 10-12% from 6-9%. H1 trough, H2 recovery, 2027 inflection.

The forward catalyst stack is where this position earns its keep. First, the peptide and longevity vertical. The July 2026 FDA meeting on lifting restrictions on 12 peptides plus the RFK Jr. administrative push creates a credible path for HIMS’ longevity specialty (peptides, coenzymes, GLP/GIP combos). HIMS already acquired a peptide manufacturing facility in California in 2025: capacity is built, waiting for the regulatory window. High-margin, sticky, no compounded-pharma overhang.

Second, broader GLP-1 expansion beyond Novo Nordisk: LLY’s Zepbound and Mounjaro plus future branded partnerships, with oral GLP-1 formulations removing the injection stigma and unlocking mass-market adoption.

Third, ARPU re-acceleration as more FDA-approved GLP-1 products and doses flow through. CEO Andrew Dudum has been consistent that the “tremendous growth opportunities” sit precisely here.

Fourth, the reaffirmed 2030 targets of $6.5B+ revenue and $1.3B+ Adjusted EBITDA, implying 2.2x revenue growth over four years and a return to ~20% EBITDA margins. None of this is unreasonable. None of it shows up in Q1 either.

Institutional accumulation through Q1 was large and concentrated:

Meanwhile, short interest remained elevated, but below peak levels:

We are not adding yet, but we don’t discard improving our cost average with a new buy below $25 levels. The position is held because the 2030 targets are credible, the international flywheel is real, Eucalyptus closes in three weeks with $700-$900M of incremental revenue, the peptide vertical has a July regulatory catalyst, and Q1 captured almost none of the branded GLP-1 economics. If Q2 hits the top of $680-$700M with stable 65% gross margins and visible Eucalyptus contribution, we already know how this stock can swing by year-end. If Q2 misses again or gross margin slips below 64%, volatility is guaranteed. The thesis is on probation, not broken. Best-in-class telehealth platforms with 2.6M paying subscribers, a $3B revenue run-rate accelerating into Q2, peptide capacity ready for a regulatory tailwind, and a credible path to 5x scale by 2030 do not trade at $24 for very long. “Not very long” still means “could trade at $20 first” too.

Imho, the market hasn't connected the dots yet. Worth revisiting our original thesis and Financial & Valuation models.