Does selling OTM put and put spread tend to have negative EV?

Does selling OTM put and put spread tend to have negative EV? For EV to be positive, the probability of ITM has to be very small. 

I sell OTM put and put spread. Today I surprisingly realized that all of my positions have negative EV using delta as a proxy of prob. ITM.  For EV to be positive, the real probability of ITM has to be insanely small. 

Here is one position on my book as an illustration. Was I stupid trading these? Or is it generally the case for OTM puts? 

TQQQ 66/69 put spread, expiring 2026-05-22: based on TQQQ at $78.95 as of 2026-05-14, position size short 40 put spreads, short leg 69 put, premium $864, gross exposure $12,000, max loss $11,136, EV = 0.90 × 864 – 0.10 × 11,136 = 777.60 – 1,113.60 = -$336.00; positive EV requires real-world loss probability below 864 / 12,000 = 7.20%.