Almost every articles I have read suggests roughly same thing for LEAPS.
– Take profit when options or underlying grows above certain % , say 50% or 100%
– Roll up and out when DTE < 150-180 days
– Roll down when DTE goes below certain threshold.
I have done multiple backtests and the first one which seems the most straightforward has given counter intuitive results. Taking profit and then rolling performed worse in all combinations. I have simulated with over 100 combinations. Consulting chatGPT and Claude confirmed this behaviour.
This is specifically for mega cap, solid tickers. Not sure about swing trades. I am talking specifically as a long term stock replacement. So why does every article suggest this approach.
Counter intuitive LEAPS backtest results
byu/mongopark98 inoptions
Posted by mongopark98