What do you think of my NASDAQ 100 rebalancing strategy?

I'm planning to invest all my surplus cash in NASDAQ 100 for maximum return at acceptable risk. I realize this is not the best time to enter; there's still a lot of uncertainty surrounding AI, expectations already seem to be priced in, and the oil price is surging while there's an upcoming FOMC. That said, I'm willing to bet on the index's track record, and I do believe that AI is the future just like the internet was back in the day regardless of the stock market bubble.

I did some backtesting over the weekend, and when given enough time horizon, the biggest variable seems to be how early you entered and how long you stayed invested. My current position is 50% QQQ and 50% cash waiting for an entry point.

I also came up with these rules based on my tests:

1. If 'closing price > moving average 175' and 'historical volatility 20< 30%,' switch to QLD
2. If 'closing price > moving average 175' and 'historical volatility 20 >= 30%,' switch to QQQ
3. If 'closing price <= moving average 175,' switch to cash

For comparison,

So in theory, the strategy offers better return than QQQ for smaller drawdown. FYI, the results include transaction fees and taxes based on my own circumstances, so they may not apply to everyone.

Of course, those numbers are overfitted and past performance doesn't guarantee future success. But mechanically following a predefined rule is probably still better than my own irrational judgement.

It would also free up my time and attention to study finance, so I can eventually properly manage my portfolio when my asset size grows.

What do you think? Is there anything I'm missing?