Kerry Lutz and David Erfle discussed the dynamics of the gold and silver market, highlighting the challenges faced by mining shares and the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s policies on the economy and precious metals. They expressed optimism about the long-term prospects of the gold sector while acknowledging the current negative sentiment and bearish outlook. Additionally, they emphasized the importance of strategic investment in the mining sector and the significance of financing for early-stage exploration companies.
The conversation also touched on the potential for significant gains during market downturns, drawing parallels between the current market bubble and the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. The speakers discussed their experiences with investing in gold and silver, emphasizing the enduring value of physical ownership of precious metals. They also delved into the world of investing in junior mining companies, highlighting the importance of thorough research and personal connections with management teams. The conversation concluded with a discussion about the challenges faced by U.S. investors in private placements, reflecting a sense of disillusionment with the current state of affairs for U.S. investors.
Subscribe to David’s site https://JuniorMinerJunky.com
It’s like if you could say the same thing about gold right I mean what do the central banks see that your average retail investor that that buys uh ETFs doesn’t see because that’s what we’re seeing right we’re seeing central banks continue to buy gold and keeping the gold price above $2,000 while your
Generalist investor continues to buy wildly overvalued stocks you’re listening to Carri Lutz’s Financial survival Network where you get valuable information you just can’t find anywhere else to thrive in today’s trying times you need the financial survival Network now more than ever go to financial survival network.com and get your free
Newsletter and gift Financial survival Network now more than ever and welcome you are listening to watching the financial survival Network I’m your host Carrie Lutz he we’re the third week of January here and well gold staying up over 2,000 so you got to give it some credit there but silver not so
Good the Mining share is definitely not so good but let’s talk with the head of Junior minor junkie David earthley David it’s great to have you back on so uh Hey insane times we’re living through here huh yes hey great great to see you Karen thank thanks for having me on again yeah
Really really uh crazy times the stock market keep going higher um the silver price and the gold miners continue to lead the gold price lower after the gold price made a what a a monthly quarterly yearly all-time high uh but that lucive $2,100 level which is where we need that
That that monthly close above before we can really get excited as yet to take place while the stock market continues to go higher and zaps any enthusiasm whatsoever out of even if you’re considering getting into minor which is which is really a good thing if you’re
Playing the long you know the long game here and accumulating shares because uh you know you’re able to take your time and focus and and focus on the best of the best and you don’t have to worry about the rest and uh continue to accumulate and wait for that uh that
Flip of the switch which we know is coming you know uh the the FED basically caved on inflation right I mean toward the end of the year last year their last you know the last fed meeting in the middle of December they basically cave they they issued a road map for for rate
Cuts while inflation is still uh twice as high as their two% target yeah so and then they come out and and and and hop talk and say it’s it’s and continue to say that uh the rates are going to stay higher for longer but they know they can’t stay higher for longer because
They know that the economy cannot perform with under a higher under a long-term High interest rate environment and that’s why they issued that road map and you know they’re they’re basically going to keep doing what they’re doing until they break something and then that’s their motus operandi right I mean
The FED is reactive not proactive right sure they’ve been proactive in saying that they’re going to cut rates but they’re always reactive when they finally do yeah hey and it’s if insult injury uh site got hacked and they got Ransom weed I guess and now I look at
The site I don’t know where anything is anymore even though it was not the most attractive website at least you knew where to look now it’s like nothing is the same anymore I know it’s crazy and you know all my all my articles you know I’ve been I’ve been writing a weekly
Article for for KidCo for you know since uh 2016 and they’re all in their database and now all the links to all those articles are different so I have to go on my website and basically find all the links that the correct links now that they’re that they’re in the process
Of fixing this problem and put them back up on my website uh that’s that that that’s a job for another day but I digress here you know it’s it’s really interesting the way the gold price continues to hold up above $2,000 an ounce yeah if you look at the chart it
Looks very bullish and then you look at the charts of the gold stocks the gold sector and you have to turn it upside turn upside down to for it to look the same um which you know it creates the opportunity which you know half of me is
Very you know very happy that you know I’ve got a lot of subscribers recently that feel the same way I do and they’re accumulating stock at these really really depressed ridiculously low prices and but the other half of me if is you know frustrated because you know we know
This is this is going to happen we just don’t know when and gonna happen meaning the stock market needs to roll over for for for investors to to basically start looking for Hedges again and uh get back into the gold space I because you look at the volumes of especially these
Juniors they’re basically at at I don’t give a L right I mean don’t care about Juniors they’re they’re like almost completely a liquid yes there’s a lot of them that are yes and you know let’s face it you know most of them need to go away and um there’s just too many
Of them there’s only so many checks that these that these uh that these Banks can write for these projects you know a lot of these companies are fooling themselves um and they’re basically lifestyle C but is that that that they that they’re fooling themselves into thinking that a major is going to come
Along and buy theming their investors uh exactly exactly I mean let’s B it like 80 85% of Lifestyle companies and it’s it’s up to somebody yeah it’s up to somebody like me to pick out the the best of the best and get into the best of the best at at prices like this
Because let’s face it you know I mean the money you’re going to make in this sector you know in the future is when you’re buying in times like this I mean uh you don’t buy these things when they’re Rising you buy them when they’re
Sinking and it it’s up to it’s up to me and uh uh you know and and your savy investor that is that that that knows this sector to buy the right companies and hold the right companies for when that switch does get flipped which it inevitably will have you ever seen
Sentiment as negative and bearish and really just downright depressed as it is now no in relation to a strong gold price I haven’t no I mean I’ve seen I’ve seen sentiment this bad yes in late 2015 uh absolutely sentiment was actually worse than this and at the same time um
Projects weren’t getting financed you know um the good projects are getting financed now but it’s but it’s you know it’s it’s the the early stage exploration companies you know that have marginal projects that if they do finally get a finance finally you know find somebody to write
Them a check it’s basically just uh money to keep the lights on because you need you know you need at least a million bucks in the bank to keep the lights on for a year sure so yeah so um so it is better in that respect as far
As companies are getting financed but late 2015 they weren’t I mean I mean the sector had gone down 85% in the end of 2015 from from uh from its peak in 2011 so I mean that took bet that basically took all the generalist investors out of the sector and it took
A lot of of of resource speculators out of the sector but it’s it’s it’s funny that uh uh in 2015 also that um it’s kind of similar to what’s happening right now now cuz in the end into the end of 2015 you had the the mining sector finally start to carve out on
Bottom after that just brutal for 3.5e Bare market right it started to carve out that bottom and a lot of you know uh uh contrarian speculators which you have to be one to make money in the sector sure were were accumulating you know uh the quality Juniors heading into the end
Of 2015 and of course I was one of them and we just said to ourselves hey this is just an incredible opportunity everybody thinks the gold price is going to go below $1,000 just like they thought gold was going to go above $2,000 in 2011 well it never happened in
2011 and it never happened in 2015 the gold price never got below $1,000 true and um but this but the share but but the uh the market basically had one more trick up its sleeve after the after the the calendar turned to 2016 after that after that base was being created after
Six months I think right like the middle of January there was a day where the where that bottom fell out and all these stops were hit of of these of these speculators accumulating these Juniors they thought okay here we go again we got to we we got to short the sector and
And basically we got stopped out of everything and wait for the bottom to come well that very same day it was an Inay reversal after stopping all these all these investors out and it just turned around and never looked back M six months it went up like over 200% I
Remember yeah me too like it was yesterday it was amazing my account you know was was you know which which which I started in in uh in late 2015 with with about close to half million bucks it was down to like uh 325 $340,000 in the beginning of January
Just like oh my God this is ridiculous and uh just got to wait because I know I bought the the right companies and all of a sudden by the by by uh the middle of 2016 it was over a million bucks so you know and I was able to bank you know
99% uh capital gains in in in 2016 after the year started off so dreadfully so that’s you know that’s kind of reminiscent I think of what’s happening right now because you know in into the end of 2023 the gold stocks were creating a six-month base and now to
Begin uh 2024 they’re the bed again and it looks like they’re at least going to test their October lows and we could have a sharp move or below those October lows but that will be an incredible buying opportunity if it happens you think they’ll test I think
It’s going to test the October low we’re only 6% away from right now and there’s there’s gaps in in the GDX and gdxj where they’ve sold down to the tops those daily gaps right now so I expect those gaps to to fill here this probably this week heading into to the you know
The FED meeting at the end of the month um but because if you take a look at what’s happening with with the miners and silver they’ve been leading they they they’ve been showing relative weakness ever since the end of January so they’re B basically screaming hey this correction is the 2024 is going
To start off with a correction and that’s what’s happened all right well he people I talk to the people in the good companies that actually have real projects there uh like you say they are able to raise money they have majors and they have institutions sinking money into them and
I ask kind of every Mining Company executive I speak with I say what do the institutions and the majors see that the individual and the retail Market are missing it’s like you could say the same thing about gold right I mean what do the central banks see that your average
Retail investor that that buys uh ETFs doesn’t see because that’s what we’re seeing right we’re seeing central banks continue to buy gold and keeping the gold price above $2,000 while your generalist investor continues to buy wildly overvalued stocks in as opposed to starting to hedge because of what’s
Coming I mean if you take a look at what happened what’s kind of similarly shaping out right now is we got we got a huge bubble right I mean everybody knows it um it’s just the timing of what it’s going to pop people people continue to
Rite it until until it pops right so we had the same thing happen at the turn of the century right we had the dot bubble into into 2000 and the bubble started to burst and uh the fed you know the rates were high the FED everybody knew the Fed
Was going to lower rates they just didn’t know when and what did they do the very first week of 2001 Alan Greenspan comes out and they they announce an a urgency meeting and cut 50 basis points remember that basically ushered in the gold bll market that
Lasted a decade in goldwood from 250 to 1925 I remember it well me too I mean I didn’t get in until 2003 uh but you know I was accumulating stocks from gold stocks from 2003 to 2005 you know I you know I did something crazy and looking
Back on it very stupid and selling my house and putting all the pro seeds into juniors but at the time you know I I wasn’t married I didn’t have a family you know it was just me saw an opportunity I’m like this is this is this is an incredible
Opportunity that can change my life and and lucky luckily for me it was the right call because six months after I did it the gold price it finally got over to that $500 level which was which was the basically what the 2,000 to $2100 level is right now 500 back then
Was the level that it couldn’t get above and once it did the price doubled in a few years so and my and and I did really really well and I became financially independent I mean I got I mean sure I got I got lucky but but I put myself in
The position to be lucky I did a lot of research I did a lot of work and it paid off for me you know I definitely don’t cond don’t invest investors do that you know don’t don’t do something like crazy like I did but I mean that’s the
Opportunity I see right now like I saw back then agreed I started buying gold my first a few ounces of it in 1999 and I think it was $280 the ounce and uh kind of never looked back and yeah we’ve had our ups and downs for sure but uh hey it’s basically ninefold
Uh investment there so uh you know with a very holding on to as much as I possibly could we had taxes divorces weddings and uh stuff like that so at some point life happens in between right yeah but that’s why you have it you know exactly ultimate savings you hope to you
Hope to keep it to pass it on to your kids you hope you don’t have to use it hey you have to use some you got to use some but I kept all my silver I have a friend who thanked me because in
2009 10 and 11 we I got him to buy gold and he bought a lot more than me and then his business went down the tubes and the divorce and a whole bunch of other stuff and H on that gold he had to he had to sell
Off a portion of it oh substantial portion still know it was a life boat for him he said if I hadn’t listened to you if I hadn’t bought that gold uh I would have never saved that much money in the bank and be able to float my way
Through the couple of bad years that I had right so the ultim big difference having something physical that could that could save you and not being able to click a button to get rid of it exactly exactly and uh really important and that’s the way it worked for me too
I mean you know had some uh a couple of rough years but I had the metal there I always knew I had it I still have it and when I had to dispose of some to pay some bills I did I didn’t feel good about it it was like gut-wrenching to me
David cuz I knew where it was heading but I bed it 7 and 800 so it’s still selling at a substantial profit you know 100% or so but you know it hurt no question about it so yeah I mean same thing with me you know I’ve had that
Rock and fortunate fortunately for me i’ I’ve never had to to sell any uh you know and uh I I haven’t bought any in quite a while I haven’t bought any for for for over 10 years I know for longer than that I think 15 years I haven’t
Bought any it just sits there and you know hopefully I can pass it along to my son but it’s the it’s the silver that I bought most of and I bought it you know less than five bucks an ounce and I don’t even think about it I just like
That’s that’s something I hope I never have to use and I could just pass it along to my saw yeah I bought a lot of it in that $67 range in when silver crashed after the uh great financial collapse that’s when I bought it I was in there with two
Hands the post office was the bringing a hand truck into my office with the bags of of silver that’s what you have to do in this sector right you have to buy those fishing lines and sell those right right ORS I mean it’s especially in the stocks
For sure hey so I think now and I think it’ll agree it’s much easier to pick out those really good Juniors oh yeah than it’s ever been before because all the other ones are literally on care and maintenance they’re in like coma set centers right yep yep absolutely
Absolutely and you’ve got all this time to do all the proper research to get into the right ones if you don’t have the time you you can subscribe to a new newsletter like mine that has basically um started his I basically started my own mutual fund right I have 20 stocks
Of 20 Juniors that I you know researched the hell out of I have a I have a 20 stock watch list also in case you know one of them does something I don’t like and I can replace it with something and I know these management really really well many of them made me
A lot of money in the past with previous projects and I I I keep up to date with them um you know I go to Beaver Creek and I go to the the the pedak conference they’re six months apart so I get to speak with pretty much everybody face to
Face that I need to speak with every six months and if something happens you know they’re they’re always available for me to to talk to them on a zoom meeting anytime I want um and um you know these companies are doing the right things at the the right time they’re raising money
At the right time they’re they’re weathering the storm they know they have fantastic projects they have the the access to Capital and they’re just doing the right things in a really really bad Market um you know and in really really in a in a bad Market you know it’s the
Good projects always get financed yeah so true especially these exploration companies you know that you know they really need to start merging some of them are starting to sell off some projects but they need to start merg we’re seeing some of it but we need to
See a lot more yeah well I like when uh they sell off a project they take shares back in another company that can then consolidate that project so they’re sitting on a really nice you know potential return on investment so the optionality in these shares really increases and right you know there’s a
Number right and the really good thing right now is you don’t need to be a high net worth in investor to take place in a in a finance to get a warrant to have huge upside right because these juniors are trading at Perpetual warrant prices right now you don’t have to you don’t
Have to deal with uh having to you know get into a private placement worry about having to sell them four months later or if you’re a US investor like me I mean I pretty much stopped participating in private placement because they don’t make any sense for you us investors
Anymore no no especially when the Canadians don’t have the hold at all now right just head for the exits and then when there’s a new financing they sell the shares they had and they go into the new one and they get a warrant and you know right while us investors have to
Deal with a Draconian Legend removal process which is ridiculous which is irrational and has no place in The Current financial markets the way that businesses transacted it’s a paper process when we’re using digital markets makes no sense exactly yep makes no sense at the very least the hold should automatically
Dissolve okay if you got a hold yes and these fees they charge us these fees they they continue to charge us yeah us investors have to pay so many fees it’s it just doesn’t make any sense it’s enough to make you want to give up your citizenship move to
Canada well Canada is no solution but it because you’re not an American you’re not subject to uh to 144 right right exactly only Americans had penalized so right but we could rant and Rave about tax wherever we go you can’t escape it tax on global earnings and then they
Want an exit tax if you have too much money and you leave so but more and more people are uh becoming expats and renouncing their US citizenship and that should be a uh warning call just like the price of gold you know yep so all
Right I don’t want to be a wet towel here bummer I think the opportunity is there if it’s uh if we don’t you know it would make sense uh that we’ll see another low maybe in March you know maybe in March well yeah I mean it’s you
Watch silver and the shares when they start to outperform Gold then you know it’s a bottom basically yeah good point all right hey Junior minor junkie.com link is in the show notes to this interview on financials survival network.com question for David myself shoot me an email KL carlotz.com
And hey sign up for a free newsletter David always a pleasure thanks for stopping by thank you car always great to talk to you thanks for listening to Carrie Lutz’s Financial survival Network Your solution to today’s trying times for the latest go to financials survival network.com Financial survival Network now more than Ever