LIVE Stocks, Options & Futures Trading with Pros! (Market Open, Last Call & More) April 24th, 2024
to talk about Market it’s early but not
too come on wake up now pour that Cofe
down your throat hole it’s hot now you
got a hole in your throat Oh no just
call your boss take a CR from out your
eyes so
tast good morning you Knuckleheads happy
Wednesday to you both
hello how how’s my team it feels like a
Monday
got Monday Vibes it’s so cold it’s so it
got cold again it did get cold what
happened when did that happen what
happened I don’t know it’s just it’s not
supposed to be yeah this weather not
cold in here though no it is not not
even a little bit uhuh uhuh
hot I haven’t turned my heat off yet are
you serious
yeah that’s a CH turn your heat off I’ve
had the air conditioning on a couple of
times oh I don’t even know now I’m in
that zone in Chicago where
on the nest you can have the oh the Dual
mode yeah the Dual mode it makes like a
cloud you don’t know anything about this
cuz you have you have gen one and yours
is a very sophisticated system but us
peons and common folk um you can put it
on Dual so if it get down to like let’s
say 68 the heat comes on if it gets up
to 72 the air conditioning comes on it’s
basically raining between although to be
fair The Nest sucks like it never figur
it’s just like oh it’s 70 degrees
outside you must want it to be 70
degrees heat like it just it’s not smart
at all it’s like oh I’m learning I’m
learn this has been learning for
two years and still can’t get my
temperature right I agree with I agree
with you there so it’s Google like you
would expect it to be so smart so
intuitive so then you just keep it on
one temperature yeah you know you just
lock down like a regular trying to force
you to do yeah so save mode yeah yeah
yeah for for the plan I need Carlos to
come to my house turn my air condition
out but that guy sucks too cuz he won’t
he he he can’t show up he hasn’t showing
up you r at Carlos what did Carlos do
hasn’t shown up all winter oh question
since Carlos has been on the payroll
you’ve had nonstop heat and air
conditioning prior to Carlos he didn’t
come this whole year CU he couldn’t make
it this but it worked but somehow it
worked maybe Carlos is in Arizona with
Scott did you think about that bet you
didn’t maybe he poached him scopi him
bet it’s an act of God I look at it as
an act of God this winter I got through
the entire winter with perfect heat ever
since you met Carlos everything’s been
good what temperature do you like to
have it for sleeping I’m curious for you
76 no way 76 74 74 in the winters in
Chicago yeah
74 69 for us baby 64 64 is freezing
that’s what blankets and quilts are for
I don’t like blankets and quilts you’re
supposed to your body wants it to be
cool I like to sleep
naked oh yeah
you just out here traumatizing
everybody and please send him the emails
don’t send them to me I don’t have the
pictures yeah I like to sleep the warm
naked you know old yeah baby you know
they’re making a line I saw it was here
on Madison there’s you didn’t say how
you like to sleep banana what she just
said un quilts under a like in a suit of
armor in one of those sweat blankets
what are those things C I have a
weighted blanket a weighted blanket yeah
yeah mhm I I don’t like weighted
blankets you’ve never slept with a
weighted blanket how do you know it
really I did I got divorced I don’t like
it but it feels like a hug it’s really
nice SLE with a dog sleeping on top of
me and see that’s nice that’s the worst
there the reason why they call it a
Three Dog Night dogs in a bed do not
belong they make a bed too hot horrible
dirty you say the same about men
horrible dirty make it too hot
Spartan smelling same thing dog Man true
I no no no argument interchangeable true
I mean I have to be honest I do not mind
a dog sleeping in the bed do you mind a
man sleeping in your
bed might as well come clean now judge
as well judge I’ve only done it once
that was Scott no it was Scott was your
head to toe or what you what do you do
what do you actually I don’t think we
were head to toe it was a water bed so I
was like you know it was a water bed oh
this story is from the 880s yeah oh
that’s amazing was this Idaho too good
it was in Galina oh yeah that’s even an
exotic destination that you guys were in
Gina Illinois with Five Guys in a house
hey what happens what happens in
Wisconsin stay and it’s Illinois oh
Illinois all right right right almost
Iowa almost Iowa you’re right across
Iowa it’s actually beautiful part I like
to ride my motorcycle it’s actually
really nice it’s really pretty I mean
you would like C rless area it’s
kalina’s got your Kina is my wheel it’s
like historical there’s chachki shops
it’s like it’s all little downtown two
or three blocks long though it’s like
nothing it’s like two three blocks long
all an st ulys S Grant was was born the
union general yeah no and then you go
two minutes further into debuk it’s
gross debuk is cute there’s like a
little Casino there you ride across went
to I can’t say anything B about cool on
the bike cuz I’ve done this like a bunch
of times I went to the river boat there
one night but you ride across the
Mississippi River like 3 four hours no
we were staying in Galina went to the
river what did you go to Galina for I
actually went to Galina during the
pandemic it was like the pandemic had
never Happ stop that’s why he went we
why did we go to Galina we would go
every year to for golf
tournament Eagle Ridge Eagle Ridge yeah
go to that Eagle Ridge Resort they have
like five courses and including the
general um General I played that course
I played it with my dad yeah they have a
they have like five different coures
yeah we would have this golf tournament
actually best dad organized it every
year a and and one year we like it was
it was like 30 40 Traders and uh must
must been the good traders that poor
those poor cart
girls
traumatized yeah one year we won it was
great straight up everybody else was so
happy for us I’m sure they were
congratulations on your wealth they
probably still talking about it yeah
they probably still talking about what
did you do last night watched hockey
watched hockey well did they win did we
who’s they we don’t have any
skin your did your team win um I was
just wanted to see a great game and it
was a great game who was playing there
was a couple games but I watched the
Tampa Bay um Florida game oh Florida’s
in it Florida 10 Florida is strong I
didn’t know that Florida was good I
thought they yeah the Panthers are good
wow Rangers won they’re they’re good too
there’s there’s there’s Rangers are
making DC look uh the capitals look uh a
little played pretty good last night
they played they played better but they
were never really in Itor but um yeah no
this is a great Sports time beginning of
the Stanley Cup is great and the
beginning of the NBA Playoffs is great
MH yeah I don’t care about any of this
but there’s breaking news how’s Taylor
Swift thank you there’s breaking news
that Travis is teaching Taylor how to
play golf oh my God you guys can you
imagine you do you ever try to teach
your significant other how to do
anything
only a couple
things she does by the way I’ve never
been able to listen
so I think we played
golf well we never played golf we went
out of the Golf Course once and I don’t
oh you found the 19th hole no I think we
just like I think what’s wrong with you
I think it might be one hole and it was
one hole we were done it’s a bar in
Brooklyn the did you ever try to teach
your wife to do anything like like I
don’t know like like no like a sport
something she already knows everything
like a SP like a sport all right our
wives went to the same school together
they already know everything are you
kidding me I’m here for it yeah they
they um I I actually my wife taught me a
couple of Tricks I’m
not dirty little girl I don’t like
people that like I hate it here play
golf with their spouses and stuff it’s
like you know you hate when couples find
Mutual hobbies to devation for other
relationship to quote the old Seinfeld
episode I don’t like when my Worlds
Collide church and state yeah I like
he’s not saying she’s going to have to
be out every time he goes out with the
round with the boys but like he’s
supporting her because just you know I
can safely say I’ve never played a sport
with my wife yeah I I never have I like
the fact that my world’s when we first
met but it just it’s some say then it I
don’t I don’t care no I like to do I
like to do a good
tribe like Golf and Vegas and things
like that with my friends like all my
friends they have mutual Hobbies like
they they’ll both like snow snowboard
together or ski together or they’ll the
snow there’s no doubt motorcycles
together or play golf together pickle
ball pickle ball is huge with we don’t
do anything no no not gonna happen we
have no Hobbies okay yeah yeah except
for hating people you two your hobbi
hating
things so did you do anything else last
night you just watch
hockey I mean is that not enough I what
do we have to do well we didn’t get out
of what was going on here we were here
really late and why I don’t remember
okay cool oh I know why I mean it was a
business thing but we had a meeting oh
okay it was so memorable you don’t even
remember why no no no I do know why I’m
just saying we had a meeting and we went
really late okay and so I didn’t get out
of here with traffic was brutal last
night yeah tonight I have to go out to
dinner oh yeah with the big boss we got
a big group going out to dinner tonight
I’m not excited about it but I have to
go out to dinner what kind of food where
are you how do you think they feel about
it it excited to have you there too yeah
it’s kind of like crappy Italian don’t
say that well I mean it’s mediocre
Italian at best so this is even less
than that you can get like you can get
like there are some decent Italian
restaurants but this place is very
mediocre so who piic who picked it then
only place marketing team
yeah the only place we get a reservation
with enough people nice what’s going to
be your go-to dish then you already know
cuz if you know this place the way you
I’ve been here 100 times right so you
already know what are you get do they
have like a chicken fio no no no no I
don’t like theirs
oh this is cuz they’re chickeni no this
is there’s only two things you can order
at this restaurant go ahead Chicken al
Jo no no they don’t CH this is
essentially their best thing is their ve
chop they do an Italian V chop it’s like
add a budget what’s the next
thing you order anything you want off
the menu except the ve guy what else you
want I get the lasagna yeah lasagna for
but you just get like a whole big tray
forever just cut I get it’s not great
but not everyone eats meat what’s that
not everyone eats meat you don’t eat you
have to I get bread on the table their
lasagna’s good not great yeah yeah
what’s the best lasagna you’ve ever had
oh at a restaurant yeah sure no no no no
the one lasagna your wife made on the
golf course that one you know I don’t
order lasagna that many places but the
last place I went to was that Mart
Anthony place there lasagna was great
yeah great you know I don’t think I’ve
ever little sneak had lasagna uh they
make vegetable lasagna yeah oh yeah we
had vegetable make white lasagna you
could vegetable lasagna yeah maybe we’ve
had vegetable Las vegetable lasagna tra
memorable to me I don’t know I don’t
like crave it like I understand I
understand I can get I can understand I
understand I I love lasagna okay
Garfield I do and you know what lasagna
I’ll tell you why I love lasagna because
lasagna is the kind of and I like
vegetable or meat I don’t really care
yeah but lasagna is something that I
never ever make at home well it’s hard
it’s it’s labor intensive no it’s labor
intensive come on for your loved
one okay I want to see you two
make pans of lasagna saying Las so easy
lasagna could actually lasagna could be
probably one of the easiest beyond the
1900s they even make pasta now you don’t
even have to cook the pasta first you
can put it in there beyond the after the
1900s you’ve made lasagna no okay that’s
what I thought I have numerous times
sold you’ve made lasagna sold you made
Las your wife no I’m texting your wife
right now you made Las in the last 24
years yeah I get my kid out here we have
it all the time I I want to bet we do it
for Christmas we do it for Thanksgiving
I want to bet $20 right now says we text
your wife she says you’ve never made the
L I mean I believe that your wife makes
it and like you open the oven door I
don’t think you’ve actually done
anything I will sell you at making
lasagna matter of fact she’s going to
tell you the last time I made the
lasagna I’m not going to tell I’m I’m
going to text I’m I’m going to prove
this to you I have it in a text last
time I made lasagna she going tell you
it was too s because I told her to add
too much parmesan cheese you want to bet
but if I’m going to bet $20 that you
haven’t made lasagna in the last 24
years I done I’m going to put it on your
list of money you made it what’s that
start yeah like not you walked in and go
hey make
lasagna bend
[Music]
over I hate it here get that pan out of
the oven oop bend
over lasagna is in this escal leads to a
true crime podcast real
quick um there’s no way there’s no way
oh my God I have to text it right now
there’s no freaking way you’ve made
lasagna last 25 years oh my God that’s
I’m with you Tom I’m there’s no way yeah
and and don’t say ask her to say how
would you like me to phrase the
question I will ask her yeah don’t let
how would you like how would you like me
have I ever made lasagna in the last 10
years is that that going give you years
24 years 24 years since 20 last 10 to 20
my love have I ever made lasagna in the
last don’t don’t that that’s
don’t my
love how dare you use a loving in term
of IND don’t like don’t that’s like
almost no that doesn’t count sent it I
sent it I have to ask the question all
right well we’re gonna just keep it
moving here let me ask the question has
the jerk has that jerk wait you have a
number
do you have his number everybody’s got a
number um oh no shots fired how it’s
been around for a long time he’s not
lying he’s not lying she hasn’t changed
that number has she no no no not in the
last 30 years you still got it see out
here catching straight only been around
20 if I ask her did the jerk go ahead
did the jerk ever make lasagna no go
ahead um okay uh we got a great show for
you today it’s a wonderful Wednesday
here on TC live little something we like
to call us assume the position Wednesday
starting off at the top of the 8:00 hour
we’re going to do an options Drive uh
mitigating downside risk with 21 DTE
that is the topic uh and it is assumed
the position Wednesday so we’re going to
do what’s your assumption so review is
right in with an underlying and a
directional bias Tom’s going to try to
do as many trades as possible in 20
minutes and we got the original geek in
the house Jacob skinny on options math
talking about fractal management um with
Jacob little fractal Rock get it fractal
Rock no okay uh Jacob also gonna be part
of the Geeks show uh coming this summer
so if you love Jacob and he tickles your
brain uh you can come see him person who
wouldn’t want a Jacob I love him we must
protect him at all costs yeah he is a
treasure he’s a treasure uh and then we
got live from the trade desk with big
boy Scotty s Scot shared and counting
down all the top trending tickers over
at tasty trade and we got Johnny trades
Nikki B coming in uh with his trade
ideas and of course because it’s
Wednesday we got truth or skepticism Tom
snoff Dylan rigan what are you talking
about with Dylan today we’re debating on
topics but we’re talking about some Fox
Trot you’re gonna talk about Fox Trot I
would like to talk about Fox Trot it
pisses me off but we’ll talk about I
have it for you but I don’t think Dylan
knows what that is and so he’s in DC
well he used to be didn’t he always and
Dy D’s not Fox TR guy no he’s not a fox
TR guy never made lasagna last years
Dylan made lasagna not a CH I bet I bet
Dylan hasn’t has open up a can of tomato
sauce Dylan lived in Italy no I love
this whole eat prey love thing for Dylan
where he’s just making tell he lived in
Italy he lives he’s in Italy right now I
will guarantee how can you live in Italy
and not be inspired to cook I will
guarantee you Italian I would bet I
would go another a step further and say
Dylan has never used his at the trvy
fountain look for the next victim theous
pasta for Dylan I will repeat that has
never used his stove in Italy we’ll find
out we’ll find out there’s not even a
forget about cooking lasagna he has
never opened his stove he’s like Carri
Bradshaw he keeps his shoes in there
would you be willing to take the other
side of that I would say he’s never open
to stove I say that he’s a renaissance
man I I’ll take the other side of that I
will take the he could pretend for a
little while I think she may be onest
something part of his act yeah yeah yeah
the other side that no but we’re going
to talk about um I mean we’re going to
talk about non-compete well I okay well
you’re going to have me first but okay
and we’re also going to talk a little
bit about the ti Tok we’ve already
talked about Tik Tok we’re we’re it is
law now so it’s okay but don’t
yell at me I’m just telling you that
it’s now I’m not yelling at you you’re
just like it’s okay well go to
your room and turn up your death metal
then and go pout I don’t know I’m just
telling you that it’s
law it is written uh but anyway that’s
the Run of show for today we got to get
this Boeing going you want your daily
dose sure hit me my theme music let’s go
our leading story breaking
newsing St St to’s
headin breaking
news it is so hot in here oh my God
stoping they literally rivulets of sweat
no they’re not running down my body you
want me to lift up my dress yeah baby is
that all it took it’s so hot it is a
wonderful I’ll bet you $20 you don’t
lift up your dress wonderful honey it’s
going to cost you more than 20 bucks is
a wonderful Wednesday it’s April the
24th here tasty live it’s part of the
show called The Daily Dose where we talk
about today’s financial news and
headlines my name is Vana are you ready
for the news sure earnings for today I
got you for earnings that happened last
night but what’s coming up for meta is
the big name along with IBM if you still
believe that and then there’s a small
little company I believe it starts with
an r ends with an L probably going
bankrupt but it’s a $ 35 billion doll
company near that’s Royal Caribbean
that’s correct oh that th said was going
out of business that’s correct that’s
correct
correct doing just the opposite proving
him wrong correct at alltime high yes
caterpillar love AAL Honeywell Ford
there’s a few others there’s a ple of
them that’s a lot what are you gonna do
what are you gonna do in uh
meta I have no idea I lose meta in
everything I do okay I lose money in
meta in everything I do you got the
Golden Touch hey getting to the first
headline of the day cuz I Hit It First
the FTC has voted to ban non-compete
clauses that bar employees from working
for competitors and sweeping legislation
is hailed as just I don’t know awesome
for all laborers uh there um is not
going to be any non-competes effective
immediately that’s according to the FTC
every single business group that exists
is like we are going to fight this we
are going to sue we are going to
litigate really because I I would I
think this is the greatest thing ever
yes but other Business Leaders and other
business groups you can see how they
would want to protect their you really
can’t you really you’re purposefully
being up to I’m not purp why would I say
that I support this 100% this is you
support this and I believe but I’m
saying you can’t really you can’t
believe why a JP Morgan or a Goldman I I
cannot believe employees to go work for
their competitor you don’t
believe work if you don’t want to work
here if you don’t want to work here you
have IP let the door hit you on the way
out you hav that’s right I got to tell
you something my emails have been
blowing up thank you everybody who’s
trying to hire me I really do appreciate
it um I will evaluate all of these I
would like to announce that I’ve entered
the transfer
portal I’m see you later I’m totally
fine with anybody I know but just just
first of all you know it’s also it’s
under
$150,000 under $150,000 okay I didn’t
know that actually yeah it’s not it’s
still a lot of work it’s not management
positions under $150,000 okay and and
but it’s still a lot of workers is the
most ridiculous thing we’ve had can I
tell you this though these the the there
were companies that were using this rule
like Jimmy John’s was trying to enforce
this rule saying that they Rous couldn’t
go work at a subway or Jersey mics
that’s how that’s how ridiculous this
rules I can tell you how it’s applied to
us over the years we’ve had people that
you know that are developers in the
fintech business and they’re like we
can’t work for you because you have you
know you’re at some my non-compete
doesn’t let me we’ve had people that are
on the trade desk I’ve had CEOs of other
online brokerages call me up and say hey
you can’t hire this person they have a
non-compete they’re on the trade desk
you know they’re they’re um they there’s
it’s
proprietary my response has always been
I just can’t believe that you don’t
think my response has always that would
want to keep the status quo my response
has always been the same to all these
CEOs and people that call us up and say
hey we’re going to sue you you know like
you can’t sue us you can sue the person
if you want we don’t have a not we don’t
have a deal with you we don’t have a
deal with anybody we can do anything we
want if you want to if you want to take
this you know you want to take some kid
to court for to try to you know to try
to go fight the non I go you’re going to
lose and we’re going to put our money
behind him but I go but I’m hiring them
anyway and if you want to fight it you
know go right ahead be you’re going to
look like such a jerk there’s not a
single nobody’s going you’re not going
to win this game can I ask you about
this so the other labor um sort of
benefit that was bundled into this and I
think you’re going to feel the opposite
about this is that they increase
protections uh they increase the
limitation for getting overtime but for
salaried employees because right now the
threshold was super low it was like in
30,000 now they’re going to raise it to
40,000 and then in 2025 let me get the
story out then raise it to
$56,000 so like middle management people
and it’s going to keep exped on that it
used to be a factor but because bat and
I are do some overtime no no no
it used to be a factor a weekend off it
used to be a factor but now with
everybody working from home and not
working for two or three days a week
it’s actually going to work the reverse
way you’re such a little cheery picker
man it’s actually going to work the
other way like I’m all for employees you
guys are going to it’s you’re it’s a
slavery contract Hey listen let me tell
something if if you want if everybody
wants to enforce that then everybody’s
gonna owe us money that’s how is okay
I’m just telling you how it’s work not a
single scrap of data that you can point
to there’s there’s there’s pages of data
that what is the data what are you
looking at there folders of data I’ll
show it to you but my point is there’s
rolodexes of data careful is Tom typing
emojis be careful be careful where you
go with that because you’ll end up owing
US
money all right go going check you tell
her Tom all right getting to the big
getting to the crazy move last night we
have to talk about Tesla let’s talk
about Tesla uh Tesla had their earnings
they missed on top and bottom lines and
they’re like yeah we’re not doing great
but they’re like we are going to move to
launch a cheaper EV sooner than expected
we’re also going to make a robot and
then the stock just soared uh after
hours I saw it up 19 no it’s up it’s up
about 16 yeah 15 I said I saw it up the
expected move the expected move was it’s
not a big deal it’s right in line okay
yeah and to the upside which it’s all
good for the bad told you it was going
to be okay and you did a a rare pre-
earning but you were sort of Neal yes
yeah I went neutral cuz he swayed me I I
it’s been so for the last three years
not getting swayed by him but he he
influenced me a little bit I played
Boeing to the upside other i’ have a
giant a lot of people though are saying
that really that the only way for Tesla
to move forward and to thrive is if they
get rid of Elon what are your
thoughts um well stupid people say
stupid things okay and I’m not even a
huge Elon fan but stupid why are you so
angry today like not angry at all you
just like want to scrap he’s War himself
up for later on no it’s not no they
didn’t no you’re wrong like I can’t get
saying I mean really I’m trying to have
an intellectual like well anyone who
thinks that is stupid well that’s not
adding to the discourse do you really
think Tesla is a better company without
Elon just like I’m just I’m ask was
Apple a better company without Steve
Jobs you don’t honestly think that he’s
a distraction though that he and it’s
Simon good without gar fun no but that
that like a Tipping Point that he’s now
more of a distraction than he think that
he is a distraction but you also he is
also he is Tesla you can’t get rid of
them sure okay I was just asking no you
can’t get rid of them okay well we’ll
see what happens but also he notoriously
overpromises and under delivers and so I
don’t know why the street keeps belie
him like I know why I keep believing him
one of like five richest people in the
world so I don’t I’m not too concerned
okay all right it’s gonna be that kind
of day uh Jack dorsey’s payment company
block is building its own Bitcoin mining
system uh he says the payment company
formerly known as square is explain is
expanding its Bitcoin mining Ambitions
from uh designing chips to developing a
full Bitcoin mining system um I’m I’m a
little sorry that we didn’t get into
Bitcoin
mining well it’s hot enough in here to
mine some Bitcoin yeah yeah yeah no
kidding I’m a little bummed that we
didn’t go that way uh Square SQ anybody
uh we don’t really have a POS we don’t
have a position okay all right yeah get
out of here anyway Square 69 Ivy rank
hanging out at 75 and change earnings
May 2nd uh what about just Bitcoin in
general other digital assets basically
change 66,000 and change uh flirting
with
67 okay had a tight range last night
what about coinbase you know what
coinbase let’s take a look I haven’t
this morning coinbase was trading 390
sorry 339 oh my goodness I was like 39 I
was like oh my God up around $3 sorry
okay uh want to talk about precious
metals Gold’s 3% dip may help fuel a run
to Fresh record high eyes gold posted
its biggest two-day percentage loss
since February of 2023 is this a time to
Scoopy
Scoopy um I don’t think so okay that Tom
said he doesn’t think so then he doesn’t
think so what are you asking me for okay
oil oil Rises nearly 2% to top $83 a
barrel as slowing manufacturing raises
interest rate cut hopes uh us crude oil
moved higher um oil prices turned higher
as Traders SE slowing manufacturing
activity I mean they found this kind of
range from around 80 to 85 they’re
hanging out at 83 the last month or so
Ivy rank of 22 is neither here nor there
what what are you doing in oil um I just
have a short strangle nothing much it’s
kind of a kind of crappy little position
an AI boom to fuel natural gas demand is
coming uh a new report says a spike
power usage from AI data centers could
significantly boost natural gas demand
in the second half of the decade I never
put the two of those things together but
let’s talk Natty gas Natty gas uh
trading
2.07 I’m rounding up by one tick that’s
uh it was flirting it was under two
about a week or so ago it’s had about a
five or seven day rally to the upside it
down small this morning but at the high
end of its range what are you doing in R
19 which um same thing as oil we have a
short strangle on in there and it’s I
mean natural gas has been at a pretty
tight range it’s been a very we’re
leaning just a hair long but it’s
nothing it’s been right here to under
two it’s 2.07 yeah uh Goldman Sachs
shares have uh um hit uh they’ve notched
a first record high since 2021 on
Goldman Sachs shares Rose to a record
eclipsing their previous closing High
set more than two years ago the
investment banking giant reported their
q1 earnings last week
that included a massive profit beat but
why is Goldman Sachs so strong that’s a
good question I have no idea Goldman
Sachs hanging out at 421 it is down
around a buck and a half two bucks this
morning but you are understand correct
had two three day rally bringing it to
New highs in other financial news Visa
had their earnings and profit surged
177% as consumer card spending climbs
adjusted net income for the fiscal
second quarter Rose 177% to $5.1 billion
do uh in the US where Visa gets more
than 40% of its Revenue card spending
grew
6.2% yeah Visa was on a meteoric run
from most of 2024 until about middle of
March killing it lately yeah it went
from 290 to 270 it’s oh that’s
interesting it’s 281 right now so it’s
back in the middle of that range yeah I
I was short to 280 puts and we were down
money on them but now I I sold some 77
and half calls I think that’s going to
be a nice trade we’ll see it’s the 8077
half strangle right here okay got to be
good oh after earnings look who’s
turning their attitude
around see how easy it is to make him
happy I know let’s talk about how much
more money you made now he was a happy
camper okay um China has acquired
recently banned Nvidia chips in super
micro and Dell servers according to new
research a review of tender documents
shows 10 Chinese entities acquired
Advanced Nvidia chips and Ed and server
products um made by smci uh let’s talk
smci remember when they would just like
be making you know DVDs and stuff like
that now they’re they gotc was down like
200 and something last week it’s red
back like 50 60 70 840 up another $16
Nvidia yeah huge mov y yeah let’s in
Nvidia too got you know kind of smoos I
Nidia 840 I loved it’s 800 but you
needed it higher though right not this
High okay well now it’s back into the
danger zone to balance anything in Dell
no Dell sucks okay and he’s
back hey Walmart sucks but it is up $5
Walmart has a new fintech it’s um the
it’s called one and it’s introducing buy
now pay later as the company’s preparing
a bigger push into lending Walmart’s
majority owned fintech startup 1 has
begun offering buy now pay later loans
for Big Ticket items at some of the
retailers more than 4,600 us stores what
are your thoughts of Walmart becoming
Like A lender I mean it looks like
they’re competing with what Clara or a
firm yes yeah I mean you know that’s
blood suckers that’s what Walmart does
yeah they’re blood suckers I mean but
it’s like people are having a harder
time paying for things now not according
to m not not at Walmart they’ll give you
the money yeah uh WMT what are you doing
in Walmart nothing okay WMT Ivy rank of
97 looks very good on paper it has
earnings May 16th I don’t know you may
done did something I don’t knowk Titan
there yeah yeah yeah hey uh speaking of
affirm buy now pay lader affirm is
expanding into financing elective
medical procedures uh they want to help
you finance your vet bills dental
services or even cosmetic surgery that’s
right get you some tig old bitties uh
and put them on a
firm get ready for summer put on titties
on layway put some tickle Bitties on lay
away that’s right time for summer you
could get your calf
implants May 8 has earnings I be rank of
46
but they stealing the the business model
the street corner uh Thug I don’t like
the street corner thug thug finances
implants yeah I don’t think buy anything
there right yeah I don’t think we want
the world to finance yeah yeah but
sometimes though you have like cripp you
have crippling vet bills though like you
were trying to save your best friend and
they’re like it’s going to cost $88,000
and you’re maybe we should do something
about the cost of vet bills well or
maybe you just go to pound and get
another one okay that’s not the answer
uh maybe you don’t get another one at
all then GNA move on hey Boeing uh and
spirit a not Aeros systems uh have
agreed to a $425 million deal to address
suppliers issues uh spirit Aeros system
said Boeing would give it Advanced
payments of 425 million and help it
address issues like higher levels of
inventory and lower cash flows
Boeing Boeing uh finally caught itself
an uptick it’s up about five or six
bucks this morning 175 after earnings
paid lows uh yesterday the day before
let’s get this Bing going do you have a
Boeing position I do I played it long oh
okay yeah that’s what I’m talking about
nice hey uh Roblox don’t talk about them
rblx they jumped yesterday after JP
Morgan upgraded the stock to over weight
uh shares gained over
5% um as they got that nice upgrade uh
Roblox we do not have a position now
it’s a $36 stock so you’re talking about
a dollish move in the stock I said what
I said it has probably has a dollish
expected move every day Boomers yeah it
has about a dollish top to bottom
expected move every day so let’s not you
know well is is there anything to do in
Roblox though sure if you like it yeah
if you like it okay all right people
like it people like it I like it people
like Roblox people you hang out with
people who like Roblox look at the
picture on the screen you’re not allowed
to be in your children people like
it people like it what you hang out with
people who have played Roblox what’s
happening I said if you she said there’s
something to do in Roblox I said if you
like it yeah he said if you like it
that’s what I said if you like it he did
he did you didn’t say people no I said
if you like it then I stand corrected
see I can admit when I’m wrong oh my God
no you really can’t no you can’t moving
um hey Apple has sent out new invites
for their May 7th launch event where
they’re expected to unveil a new line of
iPads the company expected to release
new iPads after no new models were
announced in 2023 millions of people
tune in to watch Apple launch events
live the company’s been under some
massive scrutiny for not really
innovating I finally have to break down
and get um new iPads for my house cuz my
house runs on iPads I have 2012 this is
the most iPad one Le rich guy problem
I’ve ever heard I have iPad 1 okay so I
have to get the new ones okay my my ones
are dying okay uh they’ve lasted 12 13
years what do you want a coronation like
what do you what do you want us to do
what’s the appropriate response
yeah what do you what do you want from
me I’m sweating that’s pretty good we
should have a corination for yeah yeah
we should like every time he comes out
of the studio walks in the studio that’
be I like that little theule the genu
flect that’s what it’s called a
genuflect yes what does that mean to to
to to bow to whatever oh I think that’s
a proper way to address me you can’t
spell genuflect but
yes uh breaking breaking news breaking
news uh my wife said um I asked if I’ve
ever made lasagna last 24 years because
that’s what you asked you heard me say
it she said yes with me but I’ve only
known you for 20 you’ll have to ask the
other administrations now you got
yourself in trouble so now I’m in
trouble I hope you’re happy everything
you do gets me in trouble at home just
so you know that’s funny I’m I’m here
for that what are you guys doing in
apple as a physician he did say never on
your own though see that’s that’s what
I’m saying I mean like the fact that you
open the here can you like she just does
to be nice to him she goes go to the
Butcher Store buy some sausages I’m
making lasagna can you open this jar I
can’t open it like you know like she
tightens it first and goes can you open
it just
make him feel better about himself um uh
um do you guys have a position in apple
choke choke do you guys have a there’s
no chance you ever let you to do not
resuscitate as do not do you guys have a
position in apple yeah I’m long it okay
Apple uh even the market a little bit
higher I guess the minps are n and
NASDAQ are higher Apple unchanged can’t
get out of its own way ear a little
long um there was it it was it was funny
to watch this un unravel um on on social
media yesterday my heart does truly go
out to to the employees that were
affected but I really don’t care about
rich people not being able to get 8
coffees but um out Fox Hospitality after
literally just merging just like in
January is announcing their closing all
Fox Trot and Dom’s Kitchen locations
nationwide Fox Trot had 33 locations in
Chicago DC Dallas and Austin and uh
abruptly like literally people were
working on the patio they were in line
they were shopping managers came out and
said y’all ain’t got to go home but you
got to get the hell up out of here and
and all the doors were shut one sign on
door that I did see said that the
company was in $180 million of debt I’m
not sure I thought this was tied to the
krog AL thing but it’s not it’s not and
so I okay so here’s but how come but if
they took the guy from Marianos and he
was on the board and if he looked at
that balance sheet why would he agree I
have no idea
steal I have no idea because that guy
$180 million let me CLE stealing
something the only thing it could be Tom
well whatever they just be expansion if
it was exp it was expansion they expand
Nikki lost $75 on his gift card no Nikki
didn’t daddy did it was a gift that I
gave him so Daddy lost $100 but he spent
25 bucks so net net he owes me 75 I’m
sorry Tom what do what do you think
happened what’s WR so I really like
foxtrot and I love Don
never been I’d never been to either
because they don’t serve my neighborhood
wonder they had the clothes I I was at
Dom’s last weekend and I was at foxtrot
last week and all I want to say where
will the paparazzi find you now yeah
what are you going to do those are Bond
scalps just so you know um
uh but the guy that started Doms here’s
interesting so he’s always there at that
store the the first one that opened and
so I become friendly with him not
friends but friendly the guy who who the
guy who actually runs their the car
parking area cuz it’s very tight uhhuh
he’s a tasty Trader oh okay trades on
our platform well he’s going to have to
trade a lot more now so we we talk all
the time right and the guy that built
the store it’s a really beautiful
Supermarket like beautiful Supermarket
sure and everything there is great I
can’t believe they’re like I can’t
believe they I’m upset cuz remember they
kicked Plum Market out of old town and
then that’s like cuz that was more
affordable and more accessible they
kicked them out to put a fox trat in and
like I don’t know how about this who do
you think did their first interview in
2015 who’s first use a noun whose first
interview Fox trots oh Fox trots oh you
this guy two two thums congratulations
that’s because our producer to the Stars
Jules brought them in here that’s right
and um look at the face on her I just I
don’t see he was able to scout Talent
before anybody do that ey for talent I
care about a store that only serves like
Rich bougie hipsters I do not wow
they’re all over DC liberal State all
over Illinois liberal State I don’t know
all I can say is all I can say is they
had breakfast tacos who had breakfast
tacos Fox so wait wait I I have to I
have to set I have to set I have to Fox
Dom sold Fox Trot breakfast tacos and
they sold breakfast tacos they were very
inexpensive like let’s say $3.50 or
something for breakfast expensive I
don’t think they were $350 inexpensive I
said oh he has no idea how much I don’t
think anything in they were very
reasonable he has no idea how much they
were I will sell
3 and they were already made so you just
go in you pick up a bunch of breakfast
tacos they were great uhhuh and and I
can confirm we were having this
conversation out there yesterday and my
son Nick goes yes I’m dating a girl
believe it or not found some well even
their websites down I went to go just
check out your you think it’s really a
girl your Burr story WR you know he’s
I’m trying I’m trying to be optimistic
here coming in
here it’s for Johny tra lat I’m trying
to be optimistic you think he really
dating her or did like he just meet her
somewhere like his elevator is a cousin
or something no he actually tell he
actually told me about her because I
asked I was like oh is she is she a
Swifty because that’s all I care about
and he was like she prefers Beyonce and
I was like yeah I love Beyonce cat bite
cat bite but he said that she said that
she loved the tacos but they they
changed she’s right that’s a very astute
woman right there that isn’t marry her
her that’s what we all her lock her up
lock her up
because they when they first came out
with these tacos they were unbelievable
she said they’re the best tacos she’s
ever eaten exactly breakfast tacos and
they were all made up so they tasted
great and then they something happened
they recently something happened and
they someone was skimming money a way to
do something else has to be I’m telling
you it has to be we we’ll find out
Corporation just say say I have there’s
a place right around the corner from
this in my neighborhood it’s it’s the um
donuta people the um you know the
empanadas
guys
um ones we have here yeah the TOA Cafe
TOA why are you looking at me I live on
the South Side restaurants in my hood so
so Cafe TOA has they have they have a
taco place too uhhuh and they make
breakfast tacos okay they are absolutely
amazing okay
uh hey I got to move on Ritz Ritz
crackers is giving away a 24 Karat bar
of gold worth
$100,000 in honor of their latest
butterer cracker new limited edition
butterer that’s how it’s spelled cracker
uh is coming out and to celebrate they
teamed up with a jewelry designer to
design the gold bar worth
$100,000 yay yay you get a gold bar you
get a gold bar hey this is crazy crazy
Tom and I don’t know if you’ve seen it
Gold by the way is down $9 and change
23 Gold is down $9 and change 23 30 or
so Tom I don’t know if you’ve seen this
on your Tik Tok for you page but I am
excited about this it’s not really in
our area that Ding was a Reload of bonds
he bought them bought them sold themy
them low sold tens bought twos you want
me to J flect again that’s right can you
please there you go um
Chick-fil-A now serves banana pudding
but only in Georgia oh they got me they
got me now they got me look how good
this looks so Tom all of the tick you
know I’m not a banana pudding you bought
me banana pudding once at that place
everybody says great I just don’t like
banana pudding some of the Tik Tok What
I just don’t like banana pudding but I
imagine you like bananas and you like
pudding yes no nuts you just don’t like
your bananas touching your pudding yes
no nuts in
it uh other reviews call it freaking
good they say y’all y’all this be a 10
out of 10
Mac and cheesee is great I’m going to
tell you something these goys they do it
right uh anyway it’s available it’s it’s
not just go you have to be born again is
that what it is yeah if you’re born
again they do it right they do the
chicken right they do the mac and cheese
right and I’m I haven’t had this but I’m
going to give it five stars just done
prior if you’re born again it almost
guarantees a great mac and cheese like
no that’s how it works like if you as
you ask a Jew to cook mac and mac and
Che is disgusting horrible horrible even
atalian they can’t cook mac and cheese
no people can cook mac Pepe your people
can cook mac and cheese your people do
yeah your people do Mac and Che do like
mac and cheese is
amazing it is you like breadcrumbs I do
put breadcrumbs but I make a I make a
rue for the M but I like it with
breadcrumbs on I use Pinko I use Pinko
bread good choice on my those new to
Tasty live there was a time when Vanetta
would cook for us every Friday yeah but
no more cuz you guys are
jerks every Friday she would cook for us
it was amazing yeah you guys are jerks
pinspiration it was wonderful yeah bring
back pinspiration no bring back
inspiration uh hey this is funny cuz Tom
is golfing again because it is now
spring you’ve already got a round in so
you’re going to just be hitting the
links this is the most brutal putt I
think I’ve ever seen in my life what
would you do if you were this guy watch
this I got a video swear all want like
this that is good that’s that’s going in
it might what kind of that’s the
stupidest thing I’ve ever seen come
[Applause]
what a dog
wait what oh my God yeah but that’s not
what do you do in that situation you’re
not allowed to do that you have to be at
least 6 feet away from the from the
French M I think it’s
just burn it’s actually in the middle of
yeah I think so too oh you think that’s
part of the green I do I do I I think
The Fringe actually starts at the end
yeah like where it’s scen because
because the rule is you have to be 6
feet in I know but that’s that’s
heartbreak it’s pretty fast though I’m
not going to lie pry fastens it’s a fast
well that was probably really you can’t
tell from there that yeah yeah but he
was so clo that was like he was so clo
that was a good read but then he just
got screwed anyway well his friends are
really upset about it all right uh well
that’s my time bat what’s coming up next
I’m gonna take a quick 90 second break
this was a very very good segment thank
you very much time we going take a quick
90c bring come back we got more tasty
after this I’ve entered the transfer
[Laughter]
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[Music]
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hi I’m Ryan Grace with tasty crypto and
today we’re going to talk about the
Bitcoin
having the having refers to a reduction
in the reward Bitcoin miners receed for
mining Bitcoin when a miner successfully
adds a new block to the blockchain The
Miner is rewarded in Bitcoin and today
this reward is 6 and A4 Bitcoin per
block after the having the mining reward
will be cut in half and miners will only
receive 3 and an e Bitcoin per
block this is not the first having the
having is programmed into the Bitcoin
source code and automatically occurs
after every 210,000 block period as new
blocks are added to the chain every 10
minutes habings occur roughly every 4
years and this is all by
Design the having process is a feature
of Bitcoin intended to control inflation
of the cryptocurrency and ensure
long-term security of the network the
having adds a degree of predictability
and stability to the supply of Bitcoin
compared to many Fiat currencies which
are susceptible to abrupt changes in
monetary policy and government
intervention there is no Central
Authority that can manipulate the supply
of Bitcoin it’s pre-programmed over
time this matters to investors as prior
having events have marked the start of
significant price increases for the
cryptocurrency think about it this way
if the rate at which the supply of
Bitcoin is growing gets cut in half and
demand stays the same or increases it
can be quite positive for prices
following prior having the price of
Bitcoin has risen 5,000% in 2012, 1400%
in 2016 and 650 in 20120 no one knows
what’s going to happen this time but if
it’s anything like the last having
Bitcoin investors could be in for a
bullish
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[Music]
genius toas Tomas we are back my friend
you know what that means time for a
little bit more um confirm and send but
let’s take a look at theet Market even
the snps up
$6.75 the middle of the range for the
night NASDAQ up 100 also around the
middle of its range maybe a little bit
higher than middle Russell the bucker
down $7 and change it was the leader in
the clubhouse yesterday and the Dow down
46 volatility in by 5 cents trading
1575 and bonds trading near their lows
1401 uh 24 tick range so far which is an
average is by implied volatility range
but it had some good two side action I
mean just about uh four minutes ago they
were trading about 78 ticks higher uh
than they are right now Bitcoin hanging
out at 66,000 and change oil down 10
cents with a tight range today almost a
point and gold down
$6.50 silver uh basically unchanged
let’s take a look at some of the movers
today uh Boeing for one is up around $6
Tesla for another is up around
$16 yes $16 trading 160 and change in I
know you didn’t do anything in EN pH
didn’t know what it’s doing I did oh you
did do a little something in there yeah
oh it’s only down around $6 or so so
yeah that stock usually kills me but I
have a expected move it was down lower
uh earlier yeah I have a very wide
strangle on in there which is the
85150 remember it owes me a lot of money
so I’m going to make a little tiny bit
back today on earnings I I’m going to
make money all the earning St today so a
little bit whatever meta IBM to name a
few Royal Caribbean caterpillar Ford
sure well yeah today the the bonds have
had a huge range I mean I’ve been I
bought them at 0102 and sold them at 10
just bought them back I’m trying to buy
some at 31 yeah just in the last five
minutes or so you right yeah yeah
they’ve been all over the place scalped
them yesterday so hopefully we get a
good scalping day the bonds are I’m I’m
for for some reason way more comfortable
scalping bonds right here than I am
scalping well you have a directional
bias in them you like buying you like
buying the dip in it sold s smps last
night but I scratched them um Johnny
yeah but they were back this morning I
could have sold them again I’m just yeah
there was nothing much there anyway
these are emails that came into US
overnight we got a pack show today um
Jacob will be on the show Scott will be
on the show and we’ve got um what’s your
assumption coming up as well so lots and
lots um it’s
7:56 central time we’re in Chicago what
is cost to carry these are emails that
came into US overnight from viewers all
over the world if you don’t know we get
about a crazy number of emails per day
five or 6,000 believe it or not um
between emails and chats and other
things like that um we answer them all
we are a very strange firm in that day
and night most times here you are buying
bonds under 114 31 why is my ding so
loud you’re you’re a little vois like
that I don’t know what so it was really
funny yesterday I was doing an interview
with somebody and um podcast interview
and it’ll be broadcast soon and and the
his class question was what are your
favorite he goes I ask he interviews a
lot of people in finance he goes I
always ask this question what are your
favorite um what’s your favorite
expression or what do you what do you
like to hear in finance more than
anything else like what’s your favorite
you know two three words but ding you
know what I said what you’re filled
you’re filled yeah cuz he goes everybody
else has something else like about risk
and whatever he go the first person ever
said you’re filled goes I’ve only done
like a 100 interviews yeah anyway good
that’s good um what is cost to carry
I’ve heard you talk about that before
but I’m not sure I understand it is it
for both stocks and
Futures sure yeah yeah cost to Carri is
just how much money something takes to
control an investment I mean you have
think of cost to carry you think about
if you own a home or you’ve ever
financed a car the cost to carry would
be the interest rate
versus the money that you’re putting up
for the car where you could use it
someplace else or the house something
yeah the easiest way to explain interest
expenses margins whatever you know the
easiest way to expend explain this
storage cost could be easiest way to
explain this is in the business we’re
in it’s not about how much money you
have to put up to buy something it’s
about how much money either opportunity
cost or or interest you pay to hold that
position so if you trade options there’s
no borrowing there’s no cost to carry
it’s all included there’s nothing there
if you trade um something like stock
just as an
example let’s say you buy $100 worth of
stock and you only have to put up $50 if
you want to you can put up the whole
hundred there’s no cost to carry except
your except except your opportunity cost
but there’s no cost to carry if you only
want to put up $50 then there’s a cost
to carry on the other $50 like you don’t
get to buy $100 worth of stock for $50
you have to actually pay for the other
$50 you just don’t put money sure in the
Futures world the cost of carry is built
into the Futures price so if you want to
buy for example one S&P future which is
a quarter million dollars worth of stock
you only have to put up like $155,000 to
buy it but you sounds like a great deal
like somebody’s giving sounds like a
great deal except that
$235,000 of carry cost minus the
dividends that those stocks pay is built
into the Futures price that’s cost to
carry let’s go to the next slide under
what circumstances would you prefer a
ratio spread over a
strangle a ratio spread over a strangle
if I’m directional if I have a
directional bias I’m going to probably
go with the ratio spread over the
strangle so a directional bias would be
my if I was bullish I’d be doing a put
ratio if I was bearish I’d be doing a
call ratio over a strangle um they both
like high implied volatility every
strategy we do likes High implied
volatility strangles more delta neutral
ratio has a lot more Delta um I would do
a ratio spread when just like Tony said
when implied volatility rank is super
high just like you would for a strangle
but when I was a little bit more
directional so if I was bullish and a
stock was beaten up a lot I would do a
put ratio spread if I was bearish and
the stock was you know hyperbolic or
something I might do a call ratio spread
I prefer put ratio spreads generally
speaking let’s go to the next slide I’m
slightly confused on how you decide to
size your trades are you using ivr as a
guide to
size no I use my account for the guide
uh to my to my size try to keep
everything you know under that let’s
just call it 3% threshold of uh buying
power you know it’s interesting but um
uh un naked when we size the amount of
money that we use we we tend to use like
different levels of the vix to help us
you know decide how much money we want
to pour in the market but when we talk
about actual TR trade size we really
don’t um I unless we feel super strongly
about certain underlying you know being
oversold or over whatever liquidity
would be a reason but we don’t use
generally speaking all my positions are
relatively close to the same size I
don’t really use ivr as a
guide um let’s go to the next slide so
something struck me quite clearly from
yesterday’s market measure sleeping in
on zero DTS that Jacob put together and
I want run it by you before
experimenting with real money is it
profitable to buy long zero DT straddles
at 12:00 p.m. central Time and let them
expire this would be a nice long-term
strategy based on yesterday’s market
measure right because we showed in
yesterday’s market measure that if you
put on straddles oh he’s doing the
opposite he’s doing the opposite we
showed that if you put on straddles
starting at noon in the zero DT that
over time okay not every day or anything
like that but over time the number if
you if you buy them was positive you
sell them was negative that’s right so
the question is can you wait this one
out because you got to take some big
Winners out of that group of course of
course and and if and if the market does
exactly what the research had shown the
prior year yeah yeah I guess the answer
would be
yes I mean I couldn’t do it I mean I
don’t think I’d be able to to with to
withhold or withstand the amount of
losses but I mean yeah yeah net net it
became positive I say yeah um this is
really interesting because I wrote back
to this person and said you know sure
you can try it if you want to try it go
ahead because the the over a long haul
if that means you’re you have to have
some big Winners because you’re going to
lose way more than you’re going to win
sure but over the long haul these
numbers came out to be negative if
you’re selling and positive if you’re
buying so you can try it but I I
wouldn’t do it but you can try it sure
but you’re going to have to do it for a
long time to make sure Works yep yep yep
you know um like it I don’t know if it
would have worked yesterday if you
started at noon probably not anyway um
let’s go to the next
slide in the past you said the Spy moves
based on what the es is doing that’s
correct but what if there’s no Futures
product what about something like K the
banking index does the ETF trade off
supply and demand or does it trade off
the underlying components
um it trades off of the products that
make up K ultimately gives you the price
of
K so exactly it it trades off the
underlying components of KR now of
course supply and demand plays a role
but supply and demand is only because
it’s the same with spy es moves faster
yeah it it it’s there’s a there’s
obviously going to be an ARB and if you
can buy all if you can you know supply
and demand will keep the components in
line but the reality is that who’s ever
making markets who’s ever putting
together the K you know the ETF for
carry and there’s lots of companies that
all that is what they do they keep those
components um they keep they they
basically keep a program going where the
components are trading here the ETF is
trading here and if they can buy the
components or sell the components and
then buy or sell the ETF and lock in the
money that’s what they’ll do that all
day long that’s what keeps everything in
line that’s called that’s called index
Arbitrage and there’s so much money
chasing index Arbitrage it’s very hard
to do but if you’re the leader and you
have the best technology and you have
the most money you know you can
essentially in some cases you know you
can specialize in different kinds of of
you know index ARB or banking ARB like
that y but that’s what keeps it in line
the underlying components let’s go to
next
slide and the last one does your trade
size change when you’re trading earnings
does it matter depending on if you’re
trading defined or undefined
risk no I I don’t I don’t think it
really does size really doesn’t change
no for earnings especially in the liquid
products like a Tesla last night or a
Boeing or maybe meta today I don’t think
the size uh changes it doesn’t for me
it’s it’s a it’s a we don’t do the daily
options now you know maybe if I was
doing the daily or the weekly options
that are going to expire for earnings I
might reduce my size I’m going out to
May or June I’m probably keeping the
same size well since we’re on earnings
here John I’m going to pull something up
in a second but does the trade size
change not really um sometimes we will
get a little you know frisky and we may
do something a little bit more sometimes
I’ll do something less because I just
don’t trust the underlying but for the
most part our trade size doesn’t change
very much whether it’s defined or
undefined whether it’s earnings or not
earnings I mean consistency is what
keeps us around and so yeah we tend to
not change that much now speaking of
earnings yesterday afternoon we didn’t
get to this but I wanted to uh yesterday
cherry pick came out this is something
that Nikki and Mike U Mike rcky and Dr
Data put together on a weekly basis this
is a free quantitative newsletter that
we have um it goes out every Tuesday and
what’s interesting here is um can you
scroll down a little bit
so we covered kind of like the waiting
in the NASDAQ because a lot of people
send us emails can you scroll down just
a little bit more John and what impacts
the NASDAQ the most those are kind of
the the top I think it’s seven stocks in
there and um and and so you can see kind
of the the the stocks have the most
impact on the NASDAQ and all the waiting
and everything like that and then if you
22 quarters I believe I’m just doing
from memory I can’t see it okay but then
if you go on the next slide we we kind
of can you scroll down a little bit just
a little bit so what we start to do here
is show all the earnings and like for
today you know we have all the symbols
whether it’s pre- or post you know
pre-market or postmarket all the
information but what’s interesting about
this is we also show on the last four
quarters that’s the middle column there
and we also highlight the ones that have
moved way outside kind of the expected
range like on here the on the slide
you’re looking right now I think it’s
EMP yeah EMP you can see it there it’s
highlighted in green the last earnings
it moved
19% now I’m not suggesting that that
means this EMP is going to move again
you have a huge move but that’s why I
said yesterday I hate EMP because I just
that one moved memory because I have a
memory yes um but everything’s on here
from so we do description earning States
earnings Time IV rank implied volatility
underlying what happened the last four
quarters and then um overnight price
moves and everything else there’s a ton
of information on here so if you wanted
everything into a simple
spreadsheet and boom yep and all the
earnings plays everything in there the
guys did an amazing job and again and
there’s also there’s also a downloadable
spreadsheet in here and you can go
through everything and like I said it’s
all free if you haven’t signed up for
Cherry picks yet uh no harm no foul you
know again all all our all our stuff is
free Cherry Bomb every single day I
write it on Sunday nights TP writes it
on um Monday through Thursday and the
Cherry picks uh Nikki and and Mike um
put that together um goes out every
Tuesday and there’s so much stuff in
here so if you want something
quantitative sign sign up for both of
them you can delete them obviously if
you don’t want them but um Cherry picks
is all our quantitative stuff and the
other ones kind of more of a you know
just me telling stories or TP finding
trade ideas very good so let’s hit a
quick 90 second break and come back we
got more option Jive got more tasty live
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[Music]
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[Music]
it’s
option J option J sof that is correct go
option J give S&P is up four yeah they
look a little well the NASDAQ doesn’t
look sick but the S&P is down and does
look great if I told you Tesla was going
to be up 16 or 15 it’s you know at the
NASDAQ Nvidia they’re pretty damn strong
but everything else looks like yeah on
look like crapola mhm um I bought some
notes today too that’s really all I’ve
done scalp some bonds and notes and
um uh that’s it anyway I’m Tom S St
Batista at day 12 in the morning like I
said we got a ton of stuff today the
boys on the research team put together
um something today that’s
it it’s it’s a little I I want to say
it’s a refresher but it’s not really
because it’s all brand new research
and where are how many days to
expiration in May how many days left
you’re right there 23 days 23 days right
so this week you’re rolling yeah Friday
Friday today Monday what was that that’s
you oh God Tom’s on a little scalping
roll this morning that you oh yeah your
scalping bonds
406 yeah seven ticks got some offered at
eight now and some offered at 10 see
this is what’s going to go horribly
wrong today things have gone this is
what this is what we do premarket Tony
see getting this what you call just
trading the ranges that trading ranges
premarket scalpy scalpy Scoopy scopy
scalpy scalpy got it got it um got it
like I said I’m offering some at eight
and some at 10 so we we want to hear
ding’s gol um mitigating downside risk
with 21 days to expiration we are going
to show a little bit different um we’re
going to look at mitigating downside
risk with 21 days coming up which is
this Friday as opposed to holding it
longer than this Friday a lot of
positions and um we’re going to show you
some really interesting stats okay you
ready yep let’s do
it so we’ve discussed the largest losses
and the loss to credit ratio of spy one
standard deviation strangles without
applying any management strategies in
this analysis today we’re going to
explore the impacts of exiting positions
at 21 DTE which is going to change some
of the
Dynamics next slide
please so the first one’s a visual we
found that managing positions before
exploration can significantly reduce the
magnitude of large losses if you look at
the gray bubbles here the gray dots M
all of the large losses or most of the
really large losses are all
gray well there’s going to you’re going
to scatter in a few red losses in 21
days cuz stuff happens sure sure but if
you look at this it is dominated the
majority of large losers and the
majority of losers are all gray those
are the positions we hold to expiration
the positions that we get out earlier um
which are the red positions hey at least
they’re you know when their losses
they’re wrapped around zero sure let’s
go to next slide the losses just a
really good visual y so by exiting at
positions at 21 DTE we can reduce the
and that’s this Friday again we can
reduce the largest losses by almost 50%
and we can decrease the average
long-term losses by 60% significantly
improving our control over downside risk
because what’s trading all about it is
controlling the outlier risk everything
we do is about controlling outlier risk
because you can’t control what the
Market’s going to do but we can control
the amount of risk where taking the
amount of outlier risk that we’re taking
so if we’re selling stuff naked you can
see here that if you sell 16 Delta
strangles at expiration the largest loss
this is going back whatever it is 19
years or something the largest loss 6500
if you’re doing it at 21 DT it’s 3300
and the median loss which is kind of
like the average loss is
621 um versus 255 so the savings is you
know over half MH right that’s a good
starting point let’s go next slide
but then we take it a step further and
say a similar pattern is observed in the
loss to credit ratio so managing
positions at 21 de DTE can help to cut
the figures in half so as you see here
this is loss to credit at um expiration
it’s one that’s the average and uh if
you do a 21 DT it’s a third of that and
then if you look at the high lost to
credit it’s 27 if 21 DT is the highest
14 so basically you’re reducing Risk by
half to 2/3 mhm okay and that’s just a
different way to look at it that’s loss
to credit ratio let’s go to the next
slide it’s a good way of putting it yeah
no it’s a good way so on this one we we
went further into the loss to credit
ratio and we found that for 90% of the
occurrences fall below two that’s the
kind of the the area that you know that
that’s let’s call that the wrapped
around zero area indicating that the
large losses rarely exceed twice the
original credit received if you’re doing
something at the 21dt Mark so we looked
at here was just kind of you know um
just a lot of Trades and when you start
to look at these trades you just start
to realize that hey if you manage if you
manage at 21 DTE you end up with a lot
of Trades they they flip-flop the colors
here but you end up with a lot of trades
in that 21dt area and if you go to hold
expiration o those were all the outliers
are sure and you can see them by the
gray bubbles that off the died line yep
exactly let’s go to the next
slide so finally we’re going to analyze
the loss to credit ratio and some of the
most challenging market conditions of
the last 20 years so we went and we
looked back at 2008 2018 2020 and 2022
those were kind of the big down moves
right so we wanted to pull the down
moves out and see hey is there something
here that we’re kind of missing or
something um or let’s just look at the
worst years in the market let’s go to
next
slide so we found here is even in the
worst years of the market the ratios
stayed basically the same notably
exiting positions at 21dt is even more
effective during significant Market down
downturns um cutting the largest risk up
by to up to 75% in certain instances so
we saw here is 2008 18 2020 and 2022 we
cut down the um holding it all the way
to expiration the largest losses and the
average loss by in many cases by around
75% between 67 and 75% 2/3 to 3/4 by
managing early and this is just
cherry-picking the worst losses so it
wasn’t something that was just spread
out over time this actually worked over
you know um it’s quite amazing I mean if
you’re looking from a risk stand point
of view yeah I mean no no it’s great
sure yeah yeah it’s a really really
thorough piece of research um let’s go
to the left slide I mean if you could
eliminate 75% of the issues you do it
with anything yeah if I was playing a
game of golf and I can eliminate 75% of
my my shots of my bad shots or 75% of my
lost balls I would do whatever it
took so does that mean you take a a a
lesser Club off the T I mean I’m just
trying to think whatever whatever it is
yeah um you know don’t tin cupet that’s
for sure right but
um yeah I think we would so the
takeaways exiting a position before
expiration can effectively minimize the
largest losses by better managing
volatility that’s essentially what it is
so this strategy proves even more
successful in mitigating losses under
the worst market
conditions strong piece very strong
piece good job good job starting right
in the middle of the week getting strong
we’ll be back in 90 seconds when it come
back we got the opening Bel even he
hasps only up two s we’ll back in 90
seconds take
live rock paper scissors he just played
paper he’ll do it again no Rock men
statistically play Rock but he played
paper and lost and the mind works in
patterns he’s going scissors he knows I
know he’ll go scissors but knowing I I
know he
knows Scissors Shoot thought we were
doing Rock Paper Scissors Shoot it’s
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[Music]
one of the things that that was most
intriguing about the financial space to
us is just that there wasn’t a lot of
vision there wasn’t a lot of innovation
after almost 20 years of open outcry
standing in the pit trading I felt like
all the markets were moving to
electronic trading I saw the writing on
the wall and I wanted to be first
building the best technology in the
world for Traders was one of the coolest
things anybody could ever do I loved
every second of it
thinker swim will always be my baby but
this one it’s different we built ours
literally from scratch it’s a much
thinner it’s a faster it’s a Slicker
application everything’s on one page so
you’re always looking at the core page
and then bouncing around from there to
get to whatever you want to get to we’re
here to support whatever you’re looking
to do we have the tools that you need to
be a successful
Trader I found very early on that I was
um comfortable with having risk and I
like the benefit of
it I I found trading in a unique way I
loved seeing Wall Street in New York
when I was a a young kid I would drive
down to the financial district and see
all those guys in suits very powerful
looking so to me that was a way of
having some sort of social status where
I bettered myself trading was just a way
a way out of
Brooklyn I go anywhere there’s action
really anything that has high implied
volatility and the ivx 5day change
that’s the volatility of the products
5-day change is green and I show that on
my option trads Today podcast you can
definitely get the thoughts on why I’m
making this trade am I leaning a little
bit longer am I leaning a little bit
shorter all the things that we talk
about on the show day in and day out
it’s not magic it’s just math you know
by the nature of the strategies I pick
I’m going to have a high high
probability of success and I think my
expertise comes from managing those
trades when to take them off how to
maximize the profit on them I think
that’s what sets me apart from from the
novice
Trader people are always asking where
can they find my podcast there it is s
look at that option trades today you can
listen here and everybody’s waiting for
my podcast tomorrow option trades today
every Tuesday and Thursday around noon
if you want to learn sir every Tuesdays
and Thursday option trades today you can
find me on YouTube or wherever you find
your podcast option trades today are you
listening to me option trades today
comes out every day around noon every
Tuesday and Thursday you too can stick
with the
bat got Traders block we’ve got the Cure
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newsletters all right Katie what is the
Widow Maker the Widowmaker can be any
spread that is volatile that might dink
you if you’re on the wrong side of it
but at Tasty live the Widowmaker
historically has referred to a spread in
natural gas Futures and the seasonality
of injection season and the storage
around that so it’s typically a calendar
spread that has the propensity to move
between the March and April natural gas
features contracts what does tendies
mean tendies refers to ordering chicken
nuggets at a restaurant when you’re out
watching the game with your boys or your
girls but tendies in the options trading
world or the trading World refers to
profits that you are taking on a
position what is an offer so the offer
price is the price at which you can buy
an option at uh the bid being the price
to sell at
[Music]
looking for a better broker and a bonus
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trade Tomas Tomas we are back my friend
you know what that means means even the
S&S are back too quoted them down sorry
down around five handles from here they
were up around three when we went to
that break just a few short 90 seconds
ago they’re now up eight NASDAQ is up
106 they were up around 80 just a moment
ago Russell down seven still the weakest
of the group and the Dow down 25
volatility hasn’t moved very tight range
in volatility s off down five cents
Tesla hanging out at the 60 number
that’s the 160 well now it’s so closer
to 62 up around 16 or 18 and Boeing was
up closer to around five it is now
closer to about eight uh en pH which was
down around 10 um is now down only
around five now they like them the
earnings now they like them and bonds
they like bonds too you just scalped
them at 10 they don’t like bonds they’re
down 17 yes but you bought him at 31
sold him at eight bought
him one sold him at six
I
mean what can’t you do that’s right so
how when you scalp like that Fields you
have a lot of confidence inside you 31’s
ones and twos 31’s ones and twos when
you when you scalp like this do you have
a lot of confidence inside a lot of an
yeah what do you want to go and do after
you scalp something like that like is
there anything I just want to run around
the
office like you sleep or or how you’re
in business ATT
just curious I just want to run around
just want to run around doesn’t matter
how doesn’t matter I got it I got it
just want to run around you know drink
the Kool-Aid pound the chest I
understand oil down
32 gold down
$860 silver uh which was making a little
bit of a run being a bucker now down 9
cents uh net gas down around five and CH
if we leave tonight we can make it to
Detroit in time for the draft tomorrow I
mean we leave tomorrow morning after the
show we can make it to Detroit in time
for the draft it’s only like 5 hours
sure we could I I’ll Gess up the uh the
RV for you and it has carrying cost to
it that’s beautiful because Jules wants
to go you and Jules are going you’re so
nice thank you thank you I don’t know if
Jules is talking to me anymore guess up
the RV if I guess up the RV we could
have five hours to work it out you work
it out I don’t know if he’s talking to
me anymore you think you could sleep in
the RV for the night with you and Jules
yeah there separate separate areas you
got a bedroom in the back and
got a guest quarters in the front guest
quarters got it meta has earnings uh
coming uh after the market closes today
or is it after the market Clos before
the Market opens I can only picture you
guys driving from Chicago to Detroit
taking the highway up there and stopping
at Red Lobster we both make it to
Detroit stopping at Red Lobster on the
way and fighting over you got wait in
line for Red Lobster like Olive Garden
or something like you know Olive Garden
we can get to or cracker barell cracker
barell you can get in there cra bro get
in there get in there yeah it’s just a
plate of white food it’s just everything
is just white I personally like white
food you do you love white yeah I like
white food I know you would love CRA
like I I like like chicken fried steak
and um they have that mashed potatoes
yeah chicken fried steak and mashed
potatoes or or turkey with mash and
gravy they got that they got that on
White Bread white beans white beans
beans yeah they have that for you I like
all white food I know I know there right
pancakes pancakes yeah with white bacon
I show it all the time yes yes biscuits
biscuits and gravy love biscuits and
gravy see yeah see I know I know yeah
you know I don’t order biscuits and
gravy anywhere because I don’t think
it’s good for me but anymore I do love
biscuits and gravy how could anybody not
like biscuits and gra the problem
biscuits and gravy is it’s it’s truly a
tell tell us northerner what is a
Southern dish and the people here to us
don’t make it that good what do you call
your your favorite joice yeah wish bom
yeah wish that’s the only place it
doesn’t really but it’s hard for me to
get to Wishbone now it’s hard for you to
get to Wishbone now
yeah cuz it’s downtown I I got my own
places up north all right all right you
got less than a minute here em I got I’m
working Tesla I’m working you mean
you’re working Tesla I’m working to
cover some stuff in Tesla EMP Boeing and
uh Tesla’s going to be up 181 19 right
now a little bit outside the expected
move I don’t think it’s going to hurt
me see how volatility can track started
out uh volatility in the well in June at
62 we’ll see where it goes to yeah and I
and I have a Visa position which I think
is going to be nice but I put all my
orders in way below the market like I’m
like at stupid prices so I’m not going
to be filling
anything and why would you do that so
you just cancel and replace and change
so they’re all loaded up what the hell
is that that’s EMP oh you put it that
stupid price you put in you just got
filled oh shoot I forgot about that one
yeah that was it’s okay you only got a
partial which means it’s it’s a really
good fill because you were buying
something you only got a partial so you
want you don’t want those no I’ll take
them now you
know cuz I put it in it
like oh he got filled he just got filled
what the hell price did I put that in 93
cents how much better are you going to
do on a 23-day option like where is it
going to go no no no I’m I’m I think I’m
happy with that I don’t know where I
sold it at but it wasn’t had to be
higher EMP you you sold like a like 240
or something like that and then you know
I don’t know why I put in 93 cents but I
did that was it was a good it was a good
place to put in because you only got a
partial until you finally got filled EMP
unchanged so enough unchanged after
being down 10 Tesla’s up almost 20
1991 right now and Boeing getting it
going up
$630 oh we’re going to take a little um
we’re going to take a Walk on the Wild
Side let’s see what else is moving the
market we go to the buckers Costco down
four and change UNH down four Goldman
Sachs Vanetta talked about down around
250 or three coin down around $4 Home
Depot down about a buck and change JP
Morgan down a bucking change on the
upside smci up 24 avgo up 21 Tesla up
just about 18 and a half meta going into
earnings s into earnings up 11 Nvidia up
another
10 arm up five and change I hate Nvidia
hate arm all right let’s take a look at
Tesla here um and these obviously Tesla
up
1840 Tesla right now is a very small
loser for us um yeah I put on an iron
conduit it’s a small loser too I think
uh Visa is a
winner I would have gotone my put ratio
spread is a winner Boeing is a big
winner and EMP is a big winner EMP is
the biggest winner of the group wow what
is EMP I know the one you didn’t want to
trade I
know see how that works out it’s
amazing what can’t you do I got to
adjust Boeing ba was up around $6 what’s
I got to adjust Tesla I’m
sorry don’t listen to what he says
listen to what he’s thinking Tesla
up 17 and a half yeah
so traded as high as 16460 it’s about $2
off of its
highs all right we’ll take a look in
Tesla here we’re going to do the first
one we are going to buy back our what is
this this is our May
position’s is May position yeah we’re
short the May 115 puts and the 185
calls we’re going to take the
May let’s cancel
[Music]
this
[Music]
um I filled in something in Tesla that
was me maybe no I had I had an iron
Condor oh um I did too but I just rolled
up the untested side 185s
um I have a feeling I’m pull a SAS off
and both today calls inputs what are you
gonna do I’m G to pull a s off today and
roll calls and puts in Tesla are you
really I just rolled the puts up it’s a
stock up 16 I have a feeling I’m be
rolling calls down with the stock up
like
seven two bucks these things are just
because
um I’m kind of just going to get a
little bit flat here oh are you
so I just rolled up my puts in Tesla
let’s take a look here for a second so
Tesla
TS
L we are actually up money in tes now it
actually worked out rolled up puts
rolled up puts and took off my iron
Condor that was a close actually in the
iron Condor beautiful now let’s get this
Boeing
going even the S&P is up five and change
NASDAQ up still triple digits
110 he did something in Visa too I
covered Visa nice so last night’s
earnings turned out to be good I see see
you poo pooed them you had nothing but
bad things to say and they worked out
good
um yeah hang on we’re going to roll up
some putties here putty PTY putty in
Boeing up 15 and change let’s get this
Boeing going done and let’s get rid of
these
bondin um you’re just rolling up
puts reducing your
Delta Bo
correct okay I got rid of all the NDA up
134 trading near its highs for our
session that we’ve been on the show okay
I got rid of all my working orders so um
Tesla was a winner Boeing was a winner
um so far I Haven enclosed them Boeing
up eight meta up seven and a half after
being up double digits uh prior
Visa was a
winner and the last one was enph winner
that’s good so your last trans trans of
bonds up yeah some just flat Bonds in
day now we’re going to look at all our
losers today losers who pick your head
up let’s see where the losers are
[Music]
meta uh
Nidia
hes spy AMD up four bucks catching a bid
AMD I hate
AMD so what are you doing in meta today
I’m working I’m working AMD also it’s a
worthy adversary has earnings by the way
on the
30th
AMD what do you think for Meta Meta Ivy
ranked 85 quite good um up
$850 trading uh I don’t know mid-range
but really at the high end of its range
I mean what are you going to do meta
probably a defined risk trade right I
don’t I know what to do in
meta do I do
another pre- earnings trade thatd
probably be going into June if I’m doing
anything in there Tesla was a wash
basically unchanged on my position yeah
I I think
Tesla I’m working in meta position right
now trying to get it into the back um
trying to widen out the strike so I
don’t have to deal with
it um
C LEL 14 and change yeah the biggest the
biggest trade that we had to come back
to haunt us was actually
Nvidia stupid Nvidia because of the
direction of Nvidia nvda up $111 and
change doesn’t tell you the whole story
Nvidia um just two days ago sou was
trading around 760 it’s just about 840 I
know that hurt that hurt the good kids
um
happens yeah other than that we’re in
pretty good shape today what else has
there anything to say IBM IBM Ford
AAL caterpillar are you doing anything
in IBM love IBM for earnings you really
have to have an opinion on it yeah last
the last couple times the last couple
times it has mve you like to sell puts
in IBM and it usually disappoints you
not the last two times though right the
last couple times it’s really moved
outside the expected move mhm in IBM
um I I don’t know what to do in there
how about love anything to do in there
Luv again you have usually have a bias
in here well the United Airlines had an
absolute freaking massive move
mhm and love really feels like to me it
hasn’t gone anywhere it’s heavy I mean I
know it’s had a good four or five days
going from 27 and change to 29 and
change but look at the chart here you
can see it really hasn’t gone anywhere I
mean do you sell some puts in there I
think I you rank a
54 I think you kind of got to sell the
markets are kind of crappy no the
markets are good they’re two cents wide
3 cents wide it’s just imply volatility
on a $30 stock is 41 so you got a $2
expected move for the whole month of
May doesn’t come very compelling for
selling premium unless you have a
directional okay so
IBM
love for meta Royal Caribbean
caterpillar uh caterpillar AAL if you
want to stay in that uh genre of Love
caterpillar we have a very small
position on it’s a death position forget
that okay what’s the other one a
a uh where’s it trading
$14 it’s kind of feels like it’s not
feels like it’s not a lot like love like
you know feels like it’s not as cheap as
love it looks just as cheap
used what else you see here for the
markets bonds haven’t moved they’re
still 67 no notes 7
moved um thep is quite a small bid
volatility uh down 20 cents near the low
end of its rain but a pretty tight range
uh in volatility a little bit of a
consolidation day a little bit of
sideways day digest Tesla good move for
the Chinese stocks today I don’t like
that that’s coming for the pigs Russell
just turned green up
two I’m ready for a little what’s your
assumption what’s your assumption is
next our viewers that’s you out there
came to bat for us we’re going to look
at trades or assumptions that you have
we come up with a couple of Trades we’ll
be back in 90 seconds take you
live morning Uncle Craig I really
appreciate all the investment advice you
bestowed upon me this holiday season
that opportunity Prince Harry emailed
you about sounds interesting but I think
I’ll just stick to watching tasty live
sometimes it feels good to get smart get
even smarter with live trading insights
and some life taunting I don’t kick the
cat or the dog or the small children
till the day of Christmas from the smart
mouths at Tasty
life success is a combination of lots of
noncorrelated or lightly correlated
underlyings to reduce
risk it’s better for your Investments to
trade volatility than it is to own S&P
index funds at Vanguard that’s what
you’re saying I can’t sleep at night as
a passive investor why not because I
think the risk is too great here I am
I’m a derivative Trader I have hundreds
if not thousands of positions on and I
sleep fine because I know what I’ve done
what we do it’s a mathematical equation
what asset other than fear is mean
reverting and it requires no additional
Capital to play both sides of the market
then why would you even be directional
in the first place the problem with what
you’re saying is it makes a little too
much sense it’s logical so it raises a
lot of skepticism
because it makes a little too much sense
[Music]
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if you don’t come from money working
with money sounds like the quickest
place to get to
money so this idea of allowing money to
work for you was fascinating with me and
then the more I get into it the more I
realized it was just a big competition
you it’s like a big poker game with
really smart people who know Game Theory
and nobody knows tomorrow but they’re
all just taking calculated risk and when
I figured out that’s what it was like it
wasn’t this weird world of like somebody
knows exactly what’s going to Happ
happen and this guy’s got great stock
picks it’s all just calculated risk that
that gave me inspiration that like well
I can do that so I think spending a lot
of time when I was young to learn
different option strategies and to learn
stocks options Futures Forex crypto to
be able to go where the opportunity is I
think is the most important getting
hooked in a strategy it’s cool I respect
it but I I tend to think I like to go
wherever the opportunity is
oh yeah tasty nation good
[Music]
morning know you need
[Music]
[Music]
[Applause]
it come on come on step music only one
thing it’s time for what’s your
assumption are you ready for a little
what’s your assumption I am ready for
what’s your assumption what’s your
assumption for today what’s my
assumption for today I I don’t I don’t
with the NASDAQ as strong as it
is almost 1% even though Russell and DOW
are unchanged and down I know and I I I
don’t know why I feel like the the led
by Tesla right Tesla 14 or 15 bucks 15
yeah I don’t know why feel like this is
going to be a tough battle for um I
don’t know why I feel like this is going
to be a really tough battle for the
Bears today just because um you know the
S&P are up
14 down 18 on the other side on down 18
on the other side other side the coins I
mean I’m a buyer of bonds not a buyer of
stocks here um our earnings trades were
great the rest of our positions are kind
of um I guess you could say a little bit
of crapola
um look what happened in
Boeing what’s going on in Boeing Well
they um oh only up $2 now yeah I should
have held out tra up to 177 and change
about $6 higher than where it is right
now yeah can’t keep a good Bo
up um falling from the sky just like
their doors yeah I know and um it was
too easy first I rolled up puts in there
then I rolled up calls see that’s I’s
going to happen to me Tesla I really
don’t want it to but I think that’s
what’s going to happen I think I’m going
to be snof in there you think so well I
mean still up 15 I was bullish in Tesla
I should have played this up 16 and
change should have played it to the
upside I my Tesla position right here is
pretty damn flat um I’m short a couple
of Deltas would you rather be short
Deltas here in Tesla or long Deltas I’m
pretty flat with a little bit of
shortish delta in Tesla but I’m flat I
have a tiny bit of short Delta roll up
puts yeah me too
question is do you roll up do I roll up
any more puts let me see where these
things are I can make myself 100% flat
if I want to all right I’ll do it talk
to me into
it done I’ll wait yeah Boeing was a big
turnaround I surprised it actually
surprised me yeah I’m surprised by it
too a little bit I agreed yep um gave up
a little bit of my p&l in there video
still up 10 meta up around seven uh
going going into earnings here let’s
take a look at some of those earning
stocks just real quick real quick stocks
that have earnings after the close today
meta is up seven or eight Ford’s
unchanged AAL unchanged I I don’t think
you can trade Ford okay Royal Caribbean
up
a124 no Google’s have to Market on the
25th mer down a dollar cmcsa SI of you
know it’s Comcast your provider for all
of your
um my Taiwanese sources are really
annoyed with you Tesla you made a nice
profit but all you did was talk crap
about it all day yesterday hey you got
to put the right positions on I mean
actually to be honest with you
us the other Albatross with myself I’m
talking about Mr Sheridan both liked
Tesla for earnings and you didn’t like
Tesla ferning so we’re a little bit
annoyed that you made money for Tesla
even though Tesla’s higher it’s not
about and your whole short interest you
know everybody’s everybody’s long Tesla
short has never been higher but
whatever it just so you know it it’s
about the positions you put on not about
that’s right it’s about that’s right
you’re good Tesla shortage at three year
high ahead of earnings
unbelievable ponds back down to two I’m
going to put some order to buy some
bonds here you’re going to have to pry
these out of my hands
um
okay all right you ready let’s go
assumption again I’m Tom he’s Tony let’s
do what’s your
assumption now we can we’ll go through
these fast so Richard from San Francisco
is looking at a firm one day to one year
that’s a big time frame rich rich a firm
he just likes it an iot long off their
uh 200 day with moving average with
strength I think long and shortterm is
in I got long for earnings and leaps
Monday morning in both uh did did a firm
have
earnings afrm I didn’t realize they did
no they haven’t they haven’t had
earnings yet um in a firm just so you
know earnings are May
8th May 8th okay well we have some
crappy little positions earning I have I
for a firm I have no problem in this
yeah I I’m I’m good with the side in in
airm how about let’s sell the 37 12
calls and the stocks been sliding lower
right 30 puts let’s do a little let’s do
a little 37 and a half calls 30 puts
strangle Okie doie probably have an
existing position that you’re going to
roll out into that yeah I’m G to push it
oh I’m sorry I want to roll this into
June that’s what I was trying to tell
you there my friend I want to put this
in June let me just do this save
yourself a step I me you’re going to do
it on Friday anyway yeah I’m save myself
a step more and more batlike you know
that I’m going to save myself a step
here go out to June I’m going to sell
the June 40 calls and feel to be a
mechanical
Johnny I’m going to sell for you 4030
that’s a little bit bullish Rich I’m
going your um I’m going your way oh he’s
team Tom too I know that’s why I’m going
his way I wouldn’t have done it if you
said you were team Tony no chance yeah
all dick from San Francisco thank you
man really appreciate that let’s go to
next slide thanks Rich
um John from the summer is here in The
Villages Tony you should be down there
that’s your place John’s my kind of
guy um you guys should get a room
Walmart Happy Passover
John Walmart Walmart Walmart WMT Si off
you ever been to one uh sure let go
there all the time I love Walmart Now
Stocks kind of going sideways bullish I
wow majority owned oh he’s talking about
one that been talked about this morning
buy now pay later same as a firm that we
just did John wants to get a little long
here the stock hasn’t done anything
Walmart up 18 cents you you’re right it
hasn’t really done anything except to go
higher okay well like I said we’re
moving out into the next month already
um St June right why are the calls so
cheap in
here um first thing you should probably
do why are the options so cheap in here
at all the options that’s insane
let’s take a look sorry insane Tony
what’s going on here um it only pays a
21 cent dividend later in May it’s only
2 $3 expected move into June that’s
nothing oh Meo
like me no like this is a short put
5667
puts
um John this is a short put play for me
I’m not even going to sell calls in here
way too cheap way way way too
cheap
um Walmart earnings May 16th you’re
going to attempt to sell
puts yeah I’m going to attempt to sell
puts um let’s see right now the puts are
the 67 puts are
7879 mhm here bang the bid we’ll get
filled here John take a Phill Phil let’s
go to next slide so the
67 I Nicholas from Buffalo New York uh
SN Nick I don’t know what stock that is
actually Sin City shark
ninja what rank a seven earnings May
16th those two factors okay what is
shark
ninja do you know I do not know but I
will find out for you shark ninja I like
it what was the movie oh shark yeah I
love shark
NATO shark ninja I wonder if it’s those
those like you know what’s what’s our
what’s Nick here he’s bullish and
shark ninja what is what is it Tony I
don’t know I’m trying to find out I’m
trying to find out stock hasn’t had a
down all year
Nick I should I gotta tell you here’s my
issue Nick the stock doesn’t really
trade shark ninja open Interest really
small this is a little outside of
our uh
volume it’s traded zero volume in June
options today it’s only traded 41,000
shares I just put it on my watch list is
an ivy rank of
seven yeah what are you going to do with
that I mean with very wide markets on
the call side I’m going to pass on this
Nick I just don’t it’s a little outside
of our wheelhouse okay their product
design and technology company yeah I’m
sure I just it doesn’t fit my
wheelhouse two primary Brands shark and
ninja yeah I think it’s like you know
like you probably have one of their
vacuum cleaners oh one of those things
oh it’s like uh what’s the other company
that’s in this
building Dyson like a yes like a Dyson
oh yeah I do I do I think I have a shark
ninja one of those yes yeah yeah yeah oh
okay yeah I know what it is now shark
ninja okay cool but no I’m not going to
do the trade let’s go next
slide
um contagious
that’s pretty funny contagious from New
York City I don’t think that’s your name
but contagious plld bullish 90 days I
think more Cold Storage is needed for
all the Costco Walmart and Amazon
shipments however I see the plld has
been going down I thought it would have
moved up with these stocks our dude here
another fundamental bull plld Tony you
ever trade this pris no a little bit
more stock has traded than the last one
yeah and that stock has been on its butt
too it’s gone down for 1 35 to 104 oh
they’ve absolutely crushed it m um I
don’t see any earnings coming but iy
rank is I don’t see any earnings either
they’ve absolutely mized this stock it’s
relatively it’s a slightly better volume
Choice than the last
one bond in July July 17th who Bond you
B Back At One
um what are we doing here
Tony how do the how do the markets look
in plld they’re Fair there’s no volume
there’s a little bit of open interest
you guys are killing me I want liquid
stuff there’s there’s some 95 puts
trading I think the key here is if
you’re bullish you sell the 95 puts for
a buck
10 and I think you got to reduce your
size cuz I don’t there you go when do we
reduce size you’re getting a you’re
getting a l fil 95 puts reduced size
sold them at a buck 10 okay I filled
them a buck 10 let’s go next
slide uh GDX Kon from um pick Pickering
Ontario GDX we will be going to Toronto
this
year
so join us if you’re in Canada we we are
making up for not getting there fast
enough GDX $32 St you know what you
would have to bring you’d have to buy
everybody dinner okay been so long I
have to I will GDX
maybe it’s time to take a breather the
stock has been on a nice run it’s come
back a little bit um really high IV rank
we currently have have 65 no earnings to
worry about yep let’s put a I I like
strangles in here they don’t work great
they’re a lot of work I should I
shouldn’t say they don’t work great I
should say they’re a lot of work I like
the June you’re up you’re up for the
challenge like up for the challenge I
you I like the June as I tend to agree
with you
I’m going to go
34
31 it’s really all you can do give a
little bit no
35 3531 give a little bit of little bit
bearish
3531 filled let’s go next
slide sold the strangle let’s go next
slide PA and W haven’t traded this in a
while and you rolled good D NW
oh p&w
boy almost a $300 stock used to be a
$375 stock going sideways the last month
or so hanging out right here at
292 earnings are May 28th I know you’re
going to be looking at June markets are
just as good as the last stock you
traded in GDX is a lot smaller price
stock PW this is from Ro Rodeo peanut in
Burlington New Jersey Rodeo
peanut uh let’s see what we got
here he’s neutral I’m neutral Ivy rank
is 90 this this calls for I mean are you
cool with I’m cool with a 16 Delta
strangle um I like to look at the
markets on the on the strikes that I’m
trading and on the 16 Delta they’re
about 20 cents wide which is which is
good I say that only because if you go a
little bit further down you’ll notice
like on some of these smaller priced
options the Market’s 20 cents a dollar
they’re 80 cents wise I don’t want to be
involved I’ll go a little lower
than I’ll go a little so you can go down
I mean if you really want to go down you
go down to around the 220s on the
downside if you wanted to markets are
good there up to about the 390s 400
something like that
yeah um let’s do this all right
mhm good job out of you
good job ad of me I’m not filed jet so
they don’t have the best markets Rodeo
peanut we’re working the order for you
okay brother you got it let’s go next
slide we’re working it Intel isay from
Israel isay we are long we’re long Intel
is a complete Pig it is it’s a complete
Pig and we’re are long hour how do you
say it
nicely took us we long our no it
wouldn’t be tokus it’ be the other side
I know but I don’t know I mean is this
you’re going to try to get me in trouble
now is that what she is that what you’re
trying to do
uhhuh uhhuh not the the walls have ears
you’re trying to get me in trouble
Bowling
Brook soft
serve um Intel we’re already long
everything that we want to be in there
I’m with you I think the stock is
grossly oversold so let’s earnings April
25th size up that’s tomorrow after the
close for that reason yeah we’re going
to wait a little bit and see um we’re
going to wait a little if you were
bullish cuz he is bullish and the stock
has been beaten up what would you do
today if you were doing a pre- earnings
trade I’m short puts in there I’m we’re
filled in PA and W um we sold a strangle
I
would I would literally just sell puts
in there that’s all I like to do in
Intel and I and they have earnings so I
mean I mean I would just be close to
that the money that’s all got it got it
it is a complete Pig let’s go next slide
I feel like it’s going out of business
is so bad ANF I have not traded this in
Forever it’s abacan Fitch
ANF um stock’s down two bucks today Adam
from Jersey City’s bearish um I think
you painted the top in here too I don’t
I don’t like this stock at all really
you don’t like the spring collection
this year it doesn’t here’s my problem
big abian doesn’t trade I know you wear
the perfume it doesn’t trade very much
you have to sell iron Condor here and
you have to pray that you get a decent
may22 earnings got 20 C wide markets
yeah
8590 no volume today so far 140
150 very light
volume open interest is sparse yep you
have to do an iron cond here you have to
do something that has to find RIS you
someone def find risk is what say right
yeah so far no ding so far no bu no I
this is a tough one oh filled 166 okay
166 we’ve done worse $5 wide iron Condor
collecting one3 the with of stes pretty
classic yep and I did it with a little
skew to the downside I sold a bigger
call spread than put spread 60% Pop
Let’s go to the next
slide uh don from Cleveland Ohio TSN
Tyson
Hogs and cattle are down stock has been
trending
up
TSN Tyson Food s earnings May 6th I I
don’t know that I’ve ever traded this
Don um hasn’t had a downt in what seems
like
forever and we are not going for the
most liquid underlyings
today Ivy rank is high when’s earnings
here the 6th 6th of
May this is a tough one
Don I would rather trade Hogs and cattle
than than and Tyson
um if I was going to trade this stock
and I was bullish and I was you I would
probably sell 57 and a half puts could
you get bullish in a stock like this
that hasn’t had a down ticket
no no I can’t really get bullish in here
I I got to take a pass on this one
um I got to take a pass yep yep let’s go
next slide that’s a tough one for me
AMD what about a put ratio spread I have
a lot of AMD positions on AMD finally
catch a little bit of a bid it’s up 250
but it was up a lot more than that a
moment ago was up about $4 just a second
ago AMD good IV rank cu the earnings
coming April 30th yeah the Stock’s been
um Stock’s been whacked pretty good
today
whacked not I mean the Stock’s been
whacked pretty good lately lately yes
AMD all right what do you want to do
here this guy wants to do a ratio spread
Ryan from steam booat
springs um let’s take a look I like the
markets I like to play yep Brian the
lion um I’m going to go to June because
I already have a May position on MH so
I’m going to go to June and I think a
put ratio spread here is kind of
interesting I got like you might do like
the 4030 for okay that’s teeny tiny 22
Cent I was actually thinking of the 4030
I know in June for a tiny teeny 22 Cent
but somebody with a little bit more
intestinal fortitude would probably do
the 135 130 for a164 credit 430 bought
the 13 40 puts sold the 130 puts did it
for 24 Cent credit 24 Cent credit
um this is so predictable cuz that’s
what I like to do 10 points wide I like
that trade I like that Ryan let’s go to
the next slide or last slide oh that’s
the last slide okay so
affirm you buying them at 131 I didn’t
think you would I don’t like I you’re
not so confident now I don’t want to buy
him here I know I know a firm uh these
are the positions we put on um in a firm
we did a strangle in uh June in Walmart
oh what do we do in Walmart um in
Walmart we sold naked put SN we did not
fill there wasn’t enough there wasn’t
enough um volume in there for me right
plld we sold an out- of-the money put
GDX we sold a June strangle p and w p
and w we sold a June strangle aboc cromi
and Fitch we did an iron Condor that was
uh we moved it out to June one3 the
width of the strikes and AMD we did an
uh a put ratio spread a little bit
bullish position Intel we didn’t do
because we’ve already are too long and
they’re ready and TSN we didn’t do
because Tyson Foods I just didn’t like
the liquidity in there so Tyson TSN and
SN I did not like the liquidity in both
of those Intel we didn’t do because
we’re already like lock limit long in
there very good sir good job out of you
good job by the team take quick quick 90
second break come back you know we got
coming up next the skinny on option math
with my man Jacob next we’ll be back in
90 seconds even the S&P is trading their
High since we’ve been on the show up $10
back in 90
[Music]
seconds I
swag I know how much does it cost you
guys to do simultaneous hair flips years
a practical
[Music]
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trade it was a great show very
inspirational and motivating I feel like
you got to know each of the um Traders a
lot better on a personal level it was
awesome this is my 10th or 11th live
event I thought thought the mouth would
be really complicated it wasn’t and then
it just made sense they’ve opened my
eyes to many different strategies I
realize there’s a a a reasoning and
strategic planning that you could do to
be successful I love all you
guys here’s what your buddies mean when
they say to catch a falling knife ever
seen a stock make a huge move lower and
maybe you had the thought I’m going to
buy that stock but then it just keeps
going down that’s a falling knife a
falling knife is a stock that makes a
big move lower and then continues to
move lower the contrarian Trader has the
idea to go long that stock in the hopes
for a bounce catching that falling knife
but you got to be careful trying to
catch those falling
knives well he’s more public in his
mentality I’m a Believer I believe that
the world is good and I know that the
world is not good that questioning
yourself and and questioning yourself in
dialogue with someone you respect is
both Pleasant and sometimes extremely
insightful and useful sometimes
[Music]
I think I’ve always been interested in
finance I have a degree in management
and I had took a lot of heavy Finance
classes and I’ve always loved it but
I’ve always done passive investing and
so as I went through life uh I decided
that I needed to have a bit more control
over my finances I started to dabble in
the options world when I opened up a
brokerage account in probably four
different companies and none of them
worked really well in terms of Education
until I got to Tasty you know tasty live
in particular because of the educational
background that they Tau in every single
day on how to learn how to trade options
it started with the where do I start
series uh it’s outstanding Tasty Bites
Market measures from Theory to practice
I I don’t think there’s a show that I
don’t like to be honest you know that
education piece is highly important I
found the tasty off with that
[Music]
if you have any questions feel free to
TOS them in the
[Music]
chat the Delta of paper is equal to the
partial derivative of Rock with respect
to rock paper
scissors if you think like a Trader
we’ve got your back tasty trade join the
club
genius dear Chad thank you for trusting
me with the workload of five people this
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experience all 97
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[Music]
live Tom when you talk about the good
guys who are they they they are they are
us we are the good guys when you when
you say they take out the weekend what
does that means that means when you’re a
premium seller and they take out the
weekend that means that that that means
that all the Decay over those two days
Saturday and Sunday when the markets are
closed come out of the market Monday
morning when I say Bell to Bell what
ises that
Bell to Bell is like in horse racing
they would call it wire to wire and in
trading they call it Bell to Bell so the
opening bell to the closing belt if
you’re saying something’s thin what does
that mean to you that means it’s not
very liquid that means that the
marketplace is relatively IL liquid
that’s what thin means if you can’t buy
an uptick what’s happening if you can’t
buy an uptick that means the market is
going down and it’s not and it’s there’s
no bounce how does daddy do it Daddy
does it good
[Music]
in the world of options somebody once
said for every gimme there’s a gotcha
it’s all about um generating positive
expectancy in your portfolio welcome to
option trades today I’m Tony the bat
batist and I’ve got not one but two
trade ideas for you today exploring zero
DTE we promised you we would take a look
and here we go
[Music]
Tomas Tomas we are back my friend you
know what that that means time for a
little bit more tasty live with this man
the skinny on options math snof Jacob
Jacob how are you anything I’m good I’m
good how are you to see you again my
friend is is spring finally in Chicago I
felt like you were having snow last week
or something we’re having it was spring
yesterday we could have snow today
perfect really yeah today today it’s a
little bit um little bit chilly MH MH
well I we have hummingbirds here now
yeah yeah it’s a little chilly a little
chilly little chilly yeah very here yeah
I I assume so unlike California where if
it gets chilly we’re
unprepared you guys know what to do
great great uh all right well I I think
today we should we should get into the
math pretty quick because uh I think
it’s an interesting topic and it’s sort
of about the the limits of theory or
where where Theory kind of runs into
reality and and butts up against it and
so we’ll we’ll sort of get into that and
see at first seem like a very appealing
thing to you know why one should be
trading the you know making an infinite
number of zero DT trades but the
conclusion will be that that’s probably
not a good
idea um okay so I’m C fractal management
because the the key thing here is that
suring Mo motion which is the underlying
driver of all of the the randomness and
behaviors in Black sches model and in
pretty much any of its refinements
anything that takes very seriously in
efficient market hypothesis has to get
something like this at the at the base
level because Browning motion is has a
number of different definitions but one
of them is sort of just something that’s
perfectly symmetrically random so if you
don’t know which way it’s going if at
all times you don’t know which way it’s
going to go you you’ve got something
like a Browning motion underneath it um
and what this does is this gives
Browning motion this scaling property
which we’ve talked about before this
square root of time Factor um right
that’s the C squ is the the square root
coming in there um right but if you if
you zoom in on it um so this picture at
the bottom here is a is a brand path and
then the little cutout boxes a zoom in
on just like the first little segment
and it’s really kind of impossible to
tell themart and that’s in like a very
technical sense of it’s impossible they
have statist probabilistically they have
identical properties um when you zoom it
in by all the squiggles have squiggles
on them and all those little squiggles
have little squiggles on them and so it
doesn’t matter how much you blow it up
um you can keep zooming in and this
gives a kind of funny result if you take
it very seriously and apply it to like a
black sches model and our on our
traditional sort of open a trade at 45
DTE close at 21 DTE is that you can then
repeat that at 21 DTE down to something
like 10 and then from 10 to down to
something like five and then from five
to something like you know middle of the
third day and then from two days down to
you know day before and day before you
close a day of and then Zero D let’s go
to the next slide I’ve got a picture for
this
um yeah right you can you can cut up
your time until expiration into finer
and finer pieces Each of which will have
the same brownie
behaviors on um right because they’re
just blown up versions of each other so
if you scaled up your position sizing um
and moved your strikes right you’d have
to bring your strikes in probably by
trading something like consistent Delta
and you’d have to adjust your position
sizing probably do something like
collecting a consistent amount of credit
you could get an infinite number of
holistically identical And uncorrelated
Trades all in the same underlying and
all at the same
expiration um is that a ruler you have
down there I mean you really making
for me now yeah yeah it’s it’s just a
demonstration about how you but this is
taking the zero to one line and
splitting it up into a half a quarter an
eighth a 16th Etc and we doing something
similar to our expiration we just be
taking our our 45 days to expiration
line and cutting it into 45 to 21 21 to
something like 10 you have to scale
everything for the the square of time
factor and the numbers come out a little
bit messy but they there are numbers
that exist um right something like 10
it’s something like five it’s something
like so so what are you trying
to what are you trying to figure out
here what I’m trying to do is I’m trying
to show that if you took black shs like
really very seriously and thought it was
absolutely true or even if not exactly
black schs any of sort of black schols
like models we come up to this funny and
counterintuitive and incorrect
conclusion that you can get a really
good behavior portfolio portfolio by
trading faster and faster and faster as
you get closer to expiration um and that
not true and I want to show why that’s
not true but I’m sort of leading people
into like why it might seem like an idea
um right if you take the model fully
seriously and really believe that what’s
underneath driving everything is
literally a browny and motion um right
that everything can be infinitely scaled
down right that you can blow up the
stock price diagram and get another
price diagram um and that’s not going to
be the case as we’ll see in the next two
slides but that this is sort of like a
tempting mistake um for sort of a a
precocious young
Trader to think to themselves oh perfect
GT is giving an infinite number of
things um but do not try this at home do
not do not keep scaling up your position
sizing and scaling down your time your
time scales and hope that you’re going
to get good results um because this is
really sort of a mathematical artifact
of the models um and it’s because in ma
we often talk about infinite things when
we’re modeling reality even when reality
doesn’t contain infinite things um
because is much simpler um so on the
right is a pretty famous picture
description of the difference between a
sum and an integral um in the sum you
add up a bunch of finite pieces you get
some sort of discreet chunky thing right
this is our our polygonal cow and on the
bottom there’s an integral symbol which
is the limit of doing that with smaller
and smaller pieces adding up more and
more smaller and smaller pieces and the
thing becomes smooth you get this nice
picture of a cow um but that’s not real
the the this next picture the cow is
actually in in some ways less accurate
than this polygonal picture of the cow
because at least in terms of the
marketplace it is actually polygonal
right the the when we Zoom way way down
and we’ll we’ll go on the on the next
slide into how it affects different
aspects but when you zoom way way down
there are discrete cut offs right you
don’t have every strike available you
don’t prices move in pennies not
arbitrarily small increments uh strikes
happen you know every dollar every
but they’re not all available uh
expirations are not all available that’s
not going to be as big of an issue um
time ticks aren’t continuous and smooth
because everything runs on computers
that are you know maybe four gigahertz
or 8 gigz and so they’re happening
billions of times a second but that’s
still not continuous that’s still a
click click click click click of a clock
um that one again billions of times a
second is probably fast enough that we
won’t notice the polygons on our cow um
but for the the strikes on is the and
the is is one of the bigger ones um as
we’ll see on the next but in reality
however there are discret break points
in all these things right the polygonal
picture is closer to Accurate um right
it might not get you as good of an
approximation if you don’t use enough
polygons and in fact the infinite one
the smooth one is easier to do takes
much less computational power than
having a really really large number of
polygons to just do it as the smooth
picture to take it to the limit is a
mathematical
simplification but is not actually a
real description reality and for most of
the time this was fine when we’re
trading 45 days out and you know our
strikes are you know 23 Delta the fact
that we don’t have every strike
available and the fact that the clocks
move a billion times a second and not
every instant don’t matter right the the
approximation is very close to reality
the approximation is easier to compute
with we use the approximation but when
we get down to these really short data
trades right the the particularly this
applies to the zero DTE Marketplace the
discret factors will start cropping up
and screwing with the math and the
models and result in much less well
understood behaviors um the mathematical
models are going to break down um and so
we should think about what that means to
us uh which we can do on the next
slide um so right here’s here’s the
various places where things break down
into discreet pieces time like I said it
is billions of times a second um right
it isn’t a continuous process it is a a
talk a clock that goes Tick Tock but it
goes Tik Tock billions of times a second
and so for most human practices that’s
as good as continuous um there are
non-human entities working in the
marketplace right there are algorithms
doing trading um for them they do see
these moments between moments uh that
that is like the speed that they work on
um and so whatever models are being used
to program those probably do have to
take those into account but as
individual retail investors we don’t
have to take that into account that
that’s beyond our our our necessity um
the strike availability is a bigger
problem um because it means that right
when I wanted to make my 21 DTE trade
that was going to have the same
properties as my 45 DTE trade right both
closed early um I needed to bring the
strikes in in order to like trade a
consistent Delta or something but as I
bring the strikes in finer and finer
it’s going to be the math would be
telling me to find strikes that aren’t
there right to be trading a half strike
or two thirds of a way through a strike
or a 73 right that I want a strike of
100.7 3 four five right that’s not
available so then you actually do the
trade you have to round and all of a
sudden you’re no longer getting the
thing you were promised which was an
infinite number of math of
probabilistically identical trades um
similarly uh price is not being
infinitely fine right prices only
happening in pennies or nippel or
whatever um means that you can’t do
things like scale up your your position
sizing to uh have the same credit at
some point the position sizing is going
to have to either balloon or collapse
because you’re not going to be able to
accurately recreate because you can only
do a integer number of contracts and the
contracts are all going to be 10e nickel
priced and so you’re not going to be
able to do whatever the model whatever
your model was telling you to do when
you were doing your square root scaling
um expirations uh expirations and
Strikes not being uh continuously
available is sort of a blow for local
volatility models which I’ve mentioned
many times before is my preferred uh
Dynamic volatility models uh set but
they would rely on having an infinite
supply of strikes and expirations in
order to be able to compute expected
volatility Behavior by using option
prices um so that hurts but in fact not
just that model every widely used model
would suffer because every widely used
model the mathematici don’t do it’s
called discret mathematics um or
discreet Calculus if you really take
seriously all these these finite chunks
and it is widely regarded as being much
harder than regular calculus and with
very little benefit for almost anyone um
so it’s not used in in the modeling even
though it is technically more accurate
um and then I want to throw up a thing
here I’ve been saying that right pretty
much every model needs to be looked at
very skeptically when it starts trying
to deal with super finely super small
time scales or super small strike scales
or right anything where you’re zoomed in
super far um where in the theoretical
model you get another brownie motion
when you zoom in super far in reality
you don’t you start getting something
that
is Jagged but not Jagged Al but has
straight pieces to it because there just
isn’t any data between any between two
points so it has to be a straight line
where in the model there’s an equally
squiggly line between those two points
as well that you could zoom in on
further um so this here’s a blow up
every model and means that you probably
shouldn’t Trust model is nearly as much
when you’re dealing with your really
short data trades right if you’re
trading zero dtes then the black shs
model is going to be right blacks model
is always an approximation of reality
but it becomes a much worse
approximation as you zoom in near near
expiration um so every model is going to
suffer um the efficient market
hypothesis doeses not technically suffer
because the efficient market hypothesis
is generally justified by an idea about
competition or uh epistemological
modesty or something like right we just
don’t know better than the market and
All That Remains true
um but if you thought the efficient back
hypothesis was because big Quant firms
have absolutely accurate pricing and
therefore that’s happening that isn’t
true both because it probably isn’t true
to start with but then it becomes
impossible for it to be true when the
models start breaking down your
expiration um so you can continue to
rely on F market aysis and think that
market prices are the best like are the
most accurate price you’re going to find
but that’s not because that’s like the
most accurate price that you’re going to
find that anyone knows it’s not because
they are perfectly accurate this is like
a a philosophical distinction about the
officient Market hypothesis that maybe
it’s good good good thought or for a
debate in the future Anton’s always
pitching your debate topics we could do
an efficient amican hypothesis debate um
I don’t know who you’d find to take the
other side but there are people who
don’t believe in it they they don’t they
don’t work here there are people that
will take the other side of everything
because that’s just what we do we’re
two-sided Marketplace of ideas
that’s good um yeah um yeah so that that
was my my big thing for today is I
wanted to go into sort of how one could
in perfect Theory land make this
infinite number of Trades and then why
that doesn’t work and sort of how this
shows the flaws in the model right this
disconnect between Theory and reality
should not be taken as a flaw with
reality it should be taken as a flaw
with the model um so right in a pure
Theory World it’ be possible to reach an
arbitrary number of uncorrelated
occurrences in a single underlying with
a single expiration cycle um this is
because mathematics is easier when it
deals with smooth objects so we make
these assumptions that tell us that
everything is happening continuously and
smoothly um but the reality of the
market however is fine but discreet
right that they in fact things do go
click they they don’t move smoothly
between things and when you zoom in at
some point you start seeing the
quantized right the molecules show up
the electron Rings appear and it is not
an ocean of liquid water it is a bunch
of water molecules Each of which has a
distinct distance between them um and so
the models when you’re dealing with your
very close dat option trades need to be
looked at a lot more skeptically but the
efficient market hypothesis does not
need to be thrown into question um but
most other models are not well suited to
dealing with markets extremely close to
expiration um so you Contin continue to
think the prices are fair and if you
want to trade in those markets you’re
not doing yourself a particular
disservice because right the the prices
are still probably as good as they
they’ll be but the probabilities that we
come up with around these things right
any sort of model based prediction it
needs to be looked at with a lot more
skepticism when dealing with really
finally really close expiration trades
because the models do all start to break
down when you start looking very very
finely and the time to do that is when
you’re very close to expiration when
we’re trading further from expiration
it’s like we zoomed out and the pieces
don’t matter that much and right the
spaces between the stock the the tick
times becomes irrelevant the distance
between the strikes becomes then becomes
small right if you think that over 45
days it’s likely to move at least a
dollar then the fact that there aren’t
strikes every thousandth of a penny
doesn’t matter but when you’re tra if
you want to put a trade on 30 minutes
before expiration well then the fact
that you can’t get a strike that’s you
know two cents different does make a
difference in what trades are available
to you and will ma matter for your
trading um behaviors so this is just my
remember people when you’re trading zero
TTS to not trust everything too much and
to remain really cautious about it
because they’re not nearly as well
understood by
anyone so what you’re
saying
is
that if you have no idea what you’re
doing and if you have no idea what
you’re doing you want a job and you just
want to take a shot you’re better off
doing zero DTS because the counterparty
has very little has little little Edge
against you than you think I mean
they’re just they just have the bit ass
differential there’s no other there’s no
other mechanical Edge but yeah though I
think that in reality it’s right in the
offici market aboutthis that’s probably
the edge that they have in the longer
data trades also but yes if you’re
looking for a market efficiency um there
are almost certainly are more market and
efficiencies in the zero DT the problem
is how do you know which side of the no
no you don’t you don’t that’s my whole
point so if you want to take a blind
shot directionally you’re probably
better off in the he’s just looking at
it from the other side yeah I mean yeah
yeah Mar it’s tight there’s no there’s
no I mean the bit ask is all they ever
have I mean that’s all there is going
strategy probably picking the there’s no
mechanics is the point you’re making and
then the longer data they can they can
price things much more effectively the
longer data options I get it I got it
yeah the models are much better at
making predictions in a zoomed out way
it’s like how the weather forecast for
is it going to rain in your area is much
more accurate than is it going to rain
on your block yeah right if it’s gonna
be scattered showers they can tell you
oh the city’s definitely going to have
scattered showers but they can’t tell
you oh your house is going to get this
much rain they just right that’s too
fine the model the model doesn’t do a
good job of predicting down on that
scale you got it perfect thank you my
friend friend good job Out of You Don’t
Rain on My Parade we’re going to take a
quick 90c break we got the ever popular
Mr Scott Sheridan coming up next on the
tasty trade World Headquarters right
after this thank you Jacob appreciate
it rock paper scissors he just play
Paper he’ll do it again no Rock men
statistically play Rock but he play
paper and lost and the mind works in
patterns he’s going scissors he knows I
know he’ll go scissors but knowing I
know he
knows Scissors Shoot thought we were
doing Rock Paper Scissors Shoot it’s
always rock paper scissors if you think
like a Trader we’ve got your back tasty
trade join the club genius
[Music]
how we respond to the most difficult
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trade one of the things that that was
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innovation after almost 20 years of open
outcry standing in the pit trading I
felt like all the markets were moving to
electronic trading I saw the writing on
the wall and I wanted to be first
building the best technology in the
world for Traders was one of the coolest
things anybody could ever do I loved
every second of
it thinker swim will always be my baby
but this one it’s different we built
ours literally from scratch it’s a much
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Trader are you on a quest for trading
Enlightenment driven by an unquenchable
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join six tasty live speakers as they
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[Music]
events what happens when two Titans of
tradeing come together to harness the
power of their
prowess yes let’s watch these two Domin
this popper
shop wait a minute I thought these guys
were Traders not contractors they’re
putting up a lot of bricks well lucky
for us Tom and TP are better at writing
than they are almost anything else
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[Music]
don’t die
[Music]
like toas toas enough out of
[Applause]
you ah sound can mean only one thing the
ever popular Mr Scott Sheridan from the
Scott Sheridan Studios at tasty trade Mr
Scott Sharon how are you kind
sir excellent I hope you are too an
observation and then a comment oh I love
observations than comments because those
how about a dream too can we get a
Little Dream you have a dream last
observation is Tom is in a much better
mood today you know what’s funny is
anytime anybody ever says to you an
obser in a comment it’s never a
compliment he just said you look you’re
better today than you were yesterday I
said no that’s the observation the next
one is not a compliment you’re C don’t
worry I understand how that works this
one I’m saying you look like you had a
nice meal you had a good schuff got up
you’re eating your nuts you’re good to
go now the comment is do Tony and I get
any love for being public and being
Johnny’s with
Tesla no I already roasted him Scott I
already my God you you yingang we were
so me on the show yesterday it’s you
guys are such idiots the stock is gonna
be down what did Tony and I say it’s
going to be up within the range a little
out of the range but it’s going to be a
little higher Tony yes no right 100%
Scott I mentioned it earlier today he
gave me a
gfy oh my God you guys from two guys
that haven’t been W in 73 years all of a
sudden all of a sudden you’re puffy
chested today this cracks me up all
every everybody’s entitled to a first
time so let us gloat for the first time
now more importantly I learned wait whoa
whoa whoa whoa whoa I learned something
probably shouldn’t say this but I’m
going to because it was
priceless Tom in an interview I did see
this and it is memorialized so I could
show this in an interview one asked
about his childhood
x quote unquote I was a
jack I
was hold it it explains a lot that
nobody ever wait a minute what I would
say is you and Billy moods had some good
street football Edie mosz Eddie MOS
Stewie mosit sorry Ste Stewie MOS
there’s Eddie MOS Stewie moscowitz there
was Kenny
Rubenstein Rubenstein Kenny ru sorry
that’s the best one so your double
clutch pump up fake around the car
around the park Volkswagen and then in
okay that’s street football that’s
Jewish neighborhood football that’s not
a
jock looking at you’re looking at
sitting football for Tom okay there was
no Street baseball for Tom they just
took that plot of land next to their
compound and they made a little field
out there for it they weren’t playing in
the traffic not these don’t forget don’t
forget Joel don’t forget Joel
seagull it sounds like my my middle
school there you
go yeah you had a couple you had a
couple of dick and
hites yeah yeah Weinstein lookstein yeah
we had but look at the kid it came out
normal right yeah we didn’t have I
didn’t I didn’t want to roast him
because you know he the the thing with
Jews is that they are very good athletes
and they’re very good athletes up until
grade you get to eth you get to eighth
grade and then you’re no longer the
tallest you know like you’re not the
biggest on parents no longer sponsor the
team yeah yeah like all get to play I
was the best white kid basketball player
at seventh grade but that’s how it goes
that’s how that’s how it goes but you
know what happened but the thing the
funny thing is like we were all Jews and
Italians but the Italians never got like
I could do a stop and go on my Italian
friends yeah for like 25 years they
never caught it like what is that too
stupid Italians are just too stupid I
know that’s why I’m little little stop
and go you know many half you know how
many times they fall for the Stop and Go
Tony passive aggressive ATT right now
right now he doesn’t even get it no no I
know that’s my whole point he doesn’t
got to look at him right now he’s
looking into space he’s just staring out
there he’s like was that the move that
they kept beating me on to stop and go
like you call to stop and go
here oh
God I mean me and Kenny ruin pulled that
move off like 700
times okay speaking we had we had Lori
we had Lori sackowitz in our
neighborhood Lori
saitz she owned
you w
yeah I mean like you know she would
never do a stop and go yeah she just s
go go
long we’re we’re bringing we’re bringing
this one back
okay this one down seriously snov stop
and go was just like his Up and Under he
did
this that had fake that was it one of
these but his Up and Under The Paw the
pa the Paw out in the head duck and then
under that’s that that was a good move
oh don’t worry that stop and go you know
we had it still gets me today go lunch
is here then I’ll go and he’s in front
of me in the flun line
immediately I wish we had squirrel back
then
squirrel as it should be all right and
don’t get me started on the Irish kids
the Irish
kids my buddy Kevin cigie I mean man I
own that kid although he would say
differently it’s amazing how the memory
can change facts I like that yes you
know I mean we played we probably played
one-on-one for 10 straight years like
you know two hours a
day did you ever play stick ball all the
time oh my God oh my
God semipro I love stick ball oh my God
wait a minute you seriously Priceless
you didn’t miss that first of all over
under of you ever having played stick
ball let me let me tell let me tell you
a story so listen so so I played my life
Tony yeah you had to go here I’m in
Chicago what’s your stick ball you
played against the wall yeah play
against the wall behind the school
anyway that’s not really stickball
whatever and there was we had a we
actually had a tennis court fence we had
a home run fence too which was cool
everything else and you could break
Windows the whole deal but anyway you
could break Windows when you move let me
tell you story is this when you move
wait wait is this when you moved to
Chicago no no no this isn’t this is back
where grw up but then when I moved to
Chicago this back where grw up the
country back you can break the window on
the barn when I moved to Chicago and we
lived on Lake uh Lakewood there was
there was an old fact there was a couple
factories Sugar Factory so Steve and I
Steve was working for me and stickball
because Steve played High School
baseball you know this whole school
baseball you know this whole Steve story
so we had Steve story so Steve goes I
seriously kill you okay so Steve and I
one day when I I he’s younger than me by
about what is he seven eight years
younger than me something like that yeah
yeah so so one day we go out we buy we
bought we bought the the sticks you know
like from the um from the lumber yard
and from the place from a lumber yard we
just we bought like the things from the
things yeah like a dowel whatever you
want to call them you know dowel anyway
we bought a couple do we bought a coup
we bought a couple balls and we set up
we put a big pig balls a big box Pig BS
yeah we put a big box on the side of the
on the side of the hostess Factory I on
one and Sugar Factory on the side was
right down the street and Steve and I
played five hours no we played for about
two innings minutes he had your arm fell
off he had a good fast ball what my arm
fell off and literally after two innings
I couldn’t throw the ball anymore and um
we played for two innings stickball
because we were both convinced that we
were the greatest stickball players ever
oh I’m getting a lot of emails just say
sold sold sold sold no I played a lot of
how you think I’m kidding you I got like
six of them so sold sold I don’t care
what you guys say we played a lot of
stick
ball all right you know what we’ll let
you run with it today I know I Like the
Way New Yorkers pipe up when you play
when you talk about stickball because
like there isn’t really any other that
played stick ball growing up me I mean
the sheridans had he had a pitching
machine for sure yeah for sure first of
all stick ball I think is to New York
with 16 of softball is to Chicago uh
probably a little bit yeah yeah because
if you talk like nobody plays I think
San Diego they play 16 people even still
play 16ish oh yeah oh yeah there was a
guy in the radio I was listening to this
kid from bar stool the other day and he
was like he’s from somewhere else he
just came to Chicago and he was talking
about his 16inch leak CU he played
college ball and he goes I think those
you know those mother effers whatever
broke my finger the other night he
wasn’t us to the 16 inch and you know
like he
played yeah yeah I played against big
cat one time Big Cat and Carl yeah
Carl’s on a in the UIC League big cat
played there and I were having discuss
he brought um uh Frank Kaminsky one day
oh really and he played first base he
was enormous he’s a big dude couldn’t
swing the bat though so Marty who’s on
the trade desk I he brought back to
memory that one year Marty had a good
rifle back in the day if I remember
correctly well we played I forgot we
played softb he played center field if I
remember we played for two years
together yeah and um on on the team and
uh he said we won the championship one
year but I don’t remember yeah MH yeah
because you won so many they caught out
I mean I even won yeah yeah he lets me
hold all his trophies hey we even won
one with Tony and JJ right we even won
with Tony and JJ on the team I mean they
were on the
roster this is how long we’ve been
around
together this is this is 10 years before
you were born me JJ and Tony were
playing on the same softball team he was
like a fill in S type thing no he was
the right fielder right fielder you put
you put the and I Carri and I carried
the water I carried the water cuz we
already had a catcher yeah yeah yeah
okay fair oh but your Uncle Barry your
Uncle Barry he was good he was good he
played Short Stop yeah yeah yeah Barry
was good it’s
crazy about that bar played Short Stop
never thought about that Uncle Barry
Uncle Barry Uncle Barry Uncle Barry but
he Bri daddy let me just tell you let me
tell you something about
with Barry and Tony the two people that
didn’t shut up like you always wonder
who are those obnoxious people out there
Barry for sure and Tony you can hear the
two of them yaking the entire HT with
two it hurts with two every time we
score with two outs hurts with two yeah
oh you know was really fun after I
annoyed the other team how you guys
would run to get in your car so quickly
stick up from it they would run you’ve
never like they didn’t even run their
faces this fast like when the game was
over and you know maybe you shake some
hands and stuff like that they would
take off they would fly lunch
lunch lunch and stick ball really throw
it on one bounce that’s real that real
stick ball that’s called Cricket that’s
called cricket
cricket with them please get to your
list right now it’s called Cricket you
got the wrong sport stick ball
but in the midwest they don’t they play
they play like whiffle ball games like
you know like balls like I made a
whiffle ball strike zone for my for my
son sure you did because when kids got
older I I did neglected my son when kids
when kids when kids in this age the
parents the moms didn’t want anybody
throwing mom pitch it’s a momit mom
pitch hurt the kid with a stick
ball stands out in the Outfield in case
a kid actually hits it out there he
throws it back to him so they don’t have
to run out there first time I played
catch Cole in our backyard I threw we
playing with a regular hard ball I threw
a hard ball hit him right in the face he
just missed it hit him right in the face
last time you ever played with him Kar
didn’t talk to me for a
[Laughter]
month for a month she didn’t talk to me
she’s like you get a whiffle ball that
kid’s never playing hard ball
again oh that’s great all right let’s
get to some
business top 15 symbols going through
the system first 40 minutes of the no
braas indices or Futures time for you
number 15 arm at a 36 for everybody else
number one Tesla to 32 Nvidia at an 86
ENT at a 43 B at a 52 meta at a 90 AMD
at a 77 Visa at a 23 Netflix at a 22
Apple at a 71 Amazon at a
62 SMH to a 78 smci a
74 Microsoft to 72 txn at a 40 and
number 15 for Tom armm at a 36 rounding
out the next 10 coin at a 70 VRT at a 39
tqqq at a 59 TSM at a 43 goo with an L
at an 88 Intel at a 59 GLD at a 69 r at
a 36 and Baba at a
35 I’m reading some of the comments
on YouTube and says Tom saves the
explosive speed for the lunch line good
good job out of you Scott very nice job
we’re g to go I’m let you go for now
goodbye so Johnny trades play some
music
oh different music but I liked it there
we there we go there we go
boom couple trade ideas for two tree
yeah good couple two tree Tut tree I’m
ready all right let’s do
it I think I think you’ll like some of
these maybe one maybe two I don’t know
it depends on how spicy you’re feeling
all right fire away all right first one
qualcom you got a position yes doing a
little put diagonal spread here hold on
I’ll tell you qualcom qualcom qualcom Q
um we have the 55 the 155 175 it’s a
delta neutral nothing okay I’m taking a
little bit of a short Delta position
here into earnings I’m trading in the uh
when when are earnings earnings are on
like the 1st I think May 1st something
first yep I think all what are you doing
so I’m buying the 160 in June put I’m
selling May 3rd 155
put no oh my God what an eye roll that
was you’re buying this should I pack my
bags that was like I don’t think I can
come back from that one I I you’re going
to have to get used to it son if you’re
going to be here you’re going have I
don’t like doing the weekly now cuz I
get all you know cuz I can’t follow gets
all confused he’s a very simple Trader
he’s a simpleton they call Godfather of
trading you’re buying can’t do the
weeklies into earnings no he won’t be
able to see it in his position get all
messed up you know the in the money
thing I can’t I can’t yeah it’s it’s a
lot of work I’ll I’ll do a Diagon but
I’ll do the month I’ll do the monthly
Johnny yeah all right I’m I’m working
not a great start here Dad my sounds a
great
start M meta you got a position yes of
course you do earnings after the close
today I did an iron Condor here just a
little you get filled on Qualcomm all
right all right all meta what I mean
meta what do you got 460 450 put spread
the 560 570 call spread right around
one3 the width of strikes I sold it at
$310 credit I did in the
weekly o here we go again another
expiring this
week Johnny earnings
trade no you’re scared can’t do it can’t
do it Tesla really got you no no Tesla’s
fine I’m meta I have the June 390
650 fair enough 650 gez 390 650 really
going out on a limb there 100 points
away on the downside 150 points away on
the upside wow would’ you do that for $2
you you want to know yeah I do he asked
in June I’m glad you asked because
you’re going to be surprised how much
this is trading
for six oh you got 60 days it’s it’s 650
right now it’s exploding yeah
yeah all right yeah that’s what you want
to do all right last one SPX put
butterfly we’re going back to the well
we’ve had a little bit of a rally here
maybe we get a little short Delta here
you got I like it volatility hasn’t
crept up yet it’s 1575 SPS are down on
the day now oh they are three bucks yeah
okay so this one might be a winner
already but it’s a long v short Delta
play you are a Batista I know yeah uh
this one might you know I I think you
should put this on because it’ll be a
reminder for you um what’s the what’s
the expiration expiration is May 31st
you know what happens on May 31st or why
that’s significant no it’s my
birthday oh and so I want you to put
this trade on so that you remember that
it’s my birthday that day you’ll know
because you’ll be like why the hell and
you can tell how big a gift you’re gonna
get him by money exactly the trade so
you put this trade on and it’ll be just
a subtle reminder you’ll look at it
you’ll be like why the hell do I have a
May 31st end of month expiration then
you’ll go oh that’s baby bat’s birthday
I got to get him a
gift oh 5, 4900 4,800 100 points wide
you could go 200 points wide you want to
be a little big big boy little Give me
the give me the prices again which one I
did the
5,49 5,000 round numbers 5,
4900 4,800 I I try to use round number
straightly yeah just I’ve done these
with you 100 times remember the one that
I got you like two grand out of and you
were like oh yeah that that was okay can
you explain to them how it works when if
we go lower Al tell going to expand a
little bit these are going nice how much
you’re going to pay for this I did it
at$ 850 but I’m a little Johnny I said
if you want to do a bigger one you do
5,48
4600 you know two 200 points wide you
probably do it at like 1,500 bucks
16,700
bucks filled there you go wow and you
Scoopy Scoopy these so if we get like a
20 30 40 50 point down move these go
from you know $8
to150 wow wow got it take a couple bucks
out of it he paid 825 for this one no he
must he must have butchered the strikes
48
495 wait what did he do did he go
smaller 57 days he went 48
495 4 5,000 he bought the 5,000 put sold
two of the 49s and bought one of the 48s
oh you did this in June yeah June what
did you say I did the May 31st for my
birthday oh I thought said that was baby
shark’s
birthday he really doesn’t listen
he you what that’s it that’s all I got
for you good job out of you I’m GNA take
a quick 90 second break even S&P is down
five NASDAQ up just under 80 78 Tesla
after being up 20 is up 16 and change
Russell’s down nine that pig Dow down 92
volatility only down 5 cents we’ll be
back in 90 seconds we got more tasty
live with Liz and Jenny next excellent
job son than peace
ex the lizen Jenny show is probably my
favorite hour of the day it’s somewhere
where I get to be with one of my best
friends that I’ve known since I was 14
years old and do something that I love
Liz and I always say to get a trading
buddy and uh we are each others trading
buddies and I wouldn’t know what I would
do without her people get to take a look
at how our minds work as explore Traders
now transitioned into self-directed
investors what is wonderful about being
on this show is that you see The Good
the Bad and the Ugly because not every
trade is a winner if it were if it were
the game would be rigged so you get to
watch us manage our winners and you get
to see how we look to get out of a trade
that might not be going our way my
biggest piece of advice to beginners is
to jump in but stay small putting it out
there and doing it in small increments
you will learn more than than ever
reading anything in any in any book so
stay small um but jump in top
[Music]
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the search for trading’s ultimate Holy
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at Tasty
live.com
events oh yeah tasty nation good morning
you know you need
[Music]
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genius tasty trade regulation time may
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just getting started this is overtime
the postmarket scrimmage for Market
junkies join Chris Veo ilas spivac and
me Dylan rigan as we analyze the X’s and
O’s for everything from earnings to
politics to macro events and more
nothing’s out of bounds on overtime we
break down the news to provide you A
playbook for your trades watch overtime
Monday through Thursday only on tasty
live
[Music]
explain pot
odds pot odds is my favorite term um but
pot odds in the poker world or gambling
World refers to having a greater payout
than your implied odds would would
suggest so let’s say I have 3 to one
odds to win a pot but the pot is giving
me four to one odds to make that bet I
would have a positive expected value
over time so in trading let’s say you
have a defined risk debit or credit
spread that’s currently at a Max loss
and let’s say there’s 30 days left to go
there’s not really a reason to close
that position because you’re already at
Max loss you can only go up from there
so in that scenario that would be a
positive pot odd scenario or something
that would give us pot odds to stay
[Music]
in morning Uncle Craig I really
appreciate all the investment advice you
bestowed upon me this holiday season
that opportunity Prince Harry emailed
you about sounds interesting but I think
I’ll just stick to watching tasty
live sometimes it feels good to get
smart get even smarter with live trading
insights and some life taunting I don’t
kick the cat or the dog or the small
children till the day of Christmas from
the smart mouths at Tasty life
[Music]
okay I think we man you got me yeah oh I
didn’t I don’t know you that well short
put short PTY come
on strangle I for myself I wrote
strangle for him I wrote ratio Sprint
strangle triangle strangle strangle
ratio triangle ratio spr sense
sure so Liz says you say your favorite
strategy is a zebra and you got it right
you said Jenny’s was a jade lizard Jenny
said short
bull I’m telling the truth mine is I
might be oh oh oh oh oh there’s a short
component to the Jade
lizard by default I’m accepting
this Dear Braden big thanks to you and
the Nerds for the wonderful tech support
of course I back everything up Cloud
because I’m 6 years old and I know what
a cloud is yours truly
Larry sometimes it feels good to get
smart get even smarter with live trading
insights and some life taunting no your
office is right near the near a
different you’re like closer to
the this is English you should watch him
read from the smart mouths at Tasty
life dear Chad thank you for trusting me
with the workload of five people this
week it was an invaluable learning EXP
experience all 97
hours sometimes it feels good to get
smart get even smarter with live trading
insights and some life taunting you made
me print out something for you in
40.5 from the smart mouths at Tasty live
[Music]
[Music]
hello everybody and welcome to the
Wednesday edition of the Liz and Jenny
show my name is Liz deking the beautiful
Bernett over there is Jenny interest
lower today do you think so yeah because
I feel like I’m looking at your nose oh
I am a little higher to but that we
don’t have to worry about that the
cameras move themselves I know but I
don’t like being low um you don’t have
to do anything all they watch this oh no
I went
down um all they have to do is adjust
your camera that’s I want to be higher
I’m not worried about the camera you’re
high enough now I’m not worried about
the camera angle I don’t want to be
typing like this no want to work like
this well I can see a view of the screen
and you look amazing well I’m not typing
like this anymore so I feel much better
now I can see now I’m looking directly
into your green eyes um Jenny yeah yes
we’re live in the studio it’s we’re
going to be here again today and
tomorrow but you and I very shortly are
going to be transmitting live from the
Chicago Board of options exp oh I didn’t
know if it was a if it was a public
knowledge announc it is now I just said
it so it’s got to happen I guess so yeah
I’m excited for that excited for that um
it’s gonna happen soon soon couple weeks
couple down to the CBOE yesterday you’re
going to be our old stamping grounds
when you see the floor shocked shocked
shocked um it was cool lots of faces not
old faces lots of familiar faces yes
lots of familiar faces I can’t wait it’s
going to be fun I think uh we’re going
to do it once a week do it once a week
and still still ironing out the details
but yes location anyway stay tuned uh I
think the viewers is GNA like it it’s
gonna be a fun scene down there for sure
for sure crazy okay the other topical
information Jenny how did you how do you
think you faed in
Tesla do you want to jump in the
platform and take a look at it yeah
let’s go to the platform I know during
our show we didn’t trade anything in
Tesla and we said we weren’t trading
anything in Tesla I did kind of like a
break the rule anti- tasty trade in
Tesla I know you did I know you did you
want to share with the class you’re
you’re or do you are you gonna get in
trouble uh well okay so we were just
talking we were just talking about this
at the
table when you look at a
trade let’s we can look at like we can
do it with something that has earnings
today that let’s look at meta let’s look
at meta and um well first you got to
look at the IV rank
just kind of like breaking the rules but
remember the ivy rank was super high it
was remember on the Liz and Jenny show
the rules are there are no rules I’m not
saying that this is this is a
recommended trade no no no but I like
what you did so let’s instead of like
just pull it up okay open up the two if
you don’t want to sell something you
flip the cards over open up the 2day in
meta and um no this is a 90 I rank I
will tell you Tesla had over a 100 I
think yesterday when you put no when I
put on it was like an 80 similar 0 Okay
so basically um go to the go to the 464
buy the 46450 call spread Frank Walsh
can get through to everything oh Frank
always okay buy the buy the 460 450 put
spread 460 45 or 46 how about 465 455
yeah go 465 455 okay 285 28 282 and then
by the you know what I don’t even like
it here I don’t like it here $42
expected move too much but I’ll show you
what I did so by the um 525
535 yeah okay this is this is B
basically what I did I bought a $10 wide
iron Condor for about $5 for some reason
I thought you were closer well here’s
what I was going to say and this is why
I wouldn’t do it in meta Tesla had a $13
expected move so it was much closer
because we had a $13 move my long my
shorts were at the at the brown end of
the brown bar my shorts were at the end
of the expected move but the expected
move is only $13 here it’s $42 I
wouldn’t do it with this kind of move no
I agree it it doesn’t work here let me
see if I could find something concep
let’s kind of talk through the thought
process so when you’re looking at
implied volatility put spreads trade
when you have an implied volatility that
swings in both directions look at this
it’s going down there was no there was
no um it’s going down with the puts go
go to IBM meta the expected move is just
too big um IBM if you break down this if
you move this move the sidebar a little
bit so we can see the expected move oh
sorry about okay $9 expect to move this
it might work here so bu the 170 you
know 180 175 put sprad how much is that
bu 180
175 so I’m buying this bread for one
yeah okay and then by
the you got to
go I don’t know I don’t know but in
Tesla I bought a $10 wide Aon Condor for
about five a little over $5 doar and my
thought process was in the morning if it
doesn’t move at all it’s still going to
be worth two or three dollars I’m not
going to lose that much so I didn’t want
to risk much I didn’t I thought I don’t
want to risk more than a couple hundred
dollars so if it didn’t move I could
close it down the open and take like
two2 or $300 hit not a big risk if it
did move to its expected move I bought a
$10 wide iron cond for $5 so I closed it
right before the show for about $8 and
it’s conceptually do you remember um God
why am my blanking his name the guy that
used to be Ellen Ellen used to buy
straddles for earnings and sell them on
the open the clothes he would buy them
on the clothes and sell them on the open
within seconds of the open because it
does maintain you know the high
volatility things are jumping around and
it would have worked in pass but it
works if something goes to its expected
move it doesn’t work if it doesn’t move
correct okay so I know we have a
jam-pack show today we did say that
we’re were to look at Tesla after
earnings Tesla’s up it’s got a 37 rank I
say we close it if it had a 50 I might
jump in yeah it’s hard if it’s down
great if it’s up it’s tough um let’s go
to Boeing because we did an earnings
trade in Boeing we sold a just
put spread a baby put spread which is
great okay so let’s walk through this
here’s the put spread we sold an out of
the money put spread we were kind of
talking about this in Tesla bullish move
this didn’t move everyone’s a winner and
premium selling if you don’t get a move
are you surprised that there’s still 30
cents left in that 162 I am not if if
the market weren’t the weren’t the the
market is today’s a Wednesday I guess
today’s a Wednesday look at Boeing I
mean if if you were wearing red I’d be
shocked look at how high it got yeah but
it’s so
I don’t I don’t think oh so yeah now I
guess now it’s like it didn’t even move
it was up but now it’s as if it didn’t
even move yeah so right so if you go to
the open 17 oh no no I’m sorry s moved
you’re on the wrong day the open is
17650
whoa yeah yeah so nonetheless it did now
we got a close Boeing and I’m not
shocked that it has 25 cents left FYI
will have to fix this over the break we
don’t see your mouse oh you don’t mm I
apologize I am moving it I know it’s
there it’s it’s like a one one click on
a button okay so the mouse is there but
nonetheless okay boing is I’m going to
make sure we get out of this down 10 now
winter winter chicken dinner on our
Boeing what else did we do
yesterday I’m gonna sort by zero DTE one
so our iwm working in the right
direction Apple working in the right
direction I don’t know that we oh Apple
we put on that 170 calendar the problem
is you got 15% on a calendar overnight W
I like it though I want wasn’t the
reason for the trade I want to bullish
trade through earnings yeah that wasn’t
the reason for the trade was to have the
170 call through earnings yeah and to
then be able to do something with it
okay I’m gonna very quickly go it’s
almost like having stock then we can
sell a strangle around it like a covered
strangle you know then we okay I just
wanted to quickly look at this nothing
really needs to be managed MJ had a uh
Run for the Roses yesterday which we um
in my account I actually have it bigger
than a Bread Basket but I just wanted to
look at this real quick nothing it’s not
up that much though no do you want to
jump into Twitter uh well yeah let’s go
to Twitter I have Bob’s list so thank
you very much Bob for sending these I
have Bob’s list up here good morning
today’s potential earnings and we’ve got
some big ones meta IBM Ford and if you
look at Ford our Ford um that we did
that calendar to get the free 1282 call
or not free discounted discounted then
we extended our duration and paid a
little bit more and now it’s through it
so just keep we have 86 days let’s make
a packed we’re not going to close this
for 86
[Laughter]
days this is the time in my life jenuine
I wish we had more than a one
lot well I do I have the same position
and I’m sure you do too but we only and
and this was such a baby trade I even
threw it in my son’s account because he
has a little account but it’s was such a
baby trade we paid like 30 cents for
this I know I know so great keep going
Ford um so uh Ford is on here they have
earnings So Meta IBM Ford Chipotle
Mexican Grill uh now I don’t know what
that is
Ro Caribbean okay what we there’s a lot
of things on this list American
Airlines yeah mon caterpillar Bristol
Myers ASN we have a lot and let’s look
at these now because we have watch your
assumption second half is a American
Airlines yes yeah MH yes American
Airlines group new mining okay so let’s
take a look six ranked American Airlines
it’s only $14 I did not see what’s your
assumption I have no idea if any of
these earnings are in there so I Advance
hey guess what guess where we were
during what’s your assumption talking in
the car uhhuh I was on the phone with
you so if you didn’t see it I didn’t see
it look at your purple drink my orange
drink what are you drinking today
vodka
Tang purple vodka um can you go to the
chart in AAL actually zip Fizz for those
of you this the segment sponsored by zip
fiz okay what am I going to you want to
see what it might actually be sponsored
by next time we go on Twitter I’ll show
you since we’re always talking about it
the Polish Warrior no because you might
actually sponsor our Twitter segment
all right let’s go uh to I want to see
the chart because I said American
Airlines only 14 but for American
Airlines is never really that high no
it’s always kind of around 14 but I
don’t mind selling puts here if we can
get anything for them you’re not going
to get much you can go 60 cents how
about a big lizard 14 15 yeah it’s a
baby it’s a baby Jade lizard it’s bigger
than so if it goes up we get to keep
this 34 no that stinks forget it forget
it gives us 84 cents to the downside
close this up get it this is a
um you know what this is a candidate
for uh like one of those calendars
they’d be so they’re so cheap oh you’d
have to do more than one so if you want
to do that if you you’d have sell the 14
and a half you got to go to and Let’s do
let’s do what we have in Ford like by
the July and just then leave the other
so you’ll notice there’s some risk in
here because I’m I 14 and a half you
have to buy the 15 if not oh so here
yeah there’s not going to be 14 and a
half anywhere and you’re not going to
get anything for the 15 close it make
any sense yeah close it forget it all
right next on the earnings list
um IBM IBM International Business
Machines
um IBM 183 183 tough it’s a it’s tough
for me at 183 I just would like to do
something I’m going to see our activity
none we haven’t traded IBM this year
we’ve not put an earning setup calendar
in IBM shame on us well I don’t know
maybe maybe we have we usually do we go
longer than 30 days but I don’t remember
trading I lately well that’s 365 days
that doesn’t count that no it tookes
January was our last trade okay so we
haven’t done it in a while so we don’t
have um we don’t have a rank in there so
well there’s a 90 rank no I mean we
don’t have a position in
there yeah we didn’t have anything this
year we haven’t it’s tough I love
trading IBM when it’s around like 140
150 it as it gets to 180 it becomes a
little more
challenging
um just have wanted to see you’re only
getting 30 cents there cuz I’ll forever
have the shadow traders in my head I BM
to 135 and guess where it went but they
don’t believe it’s going to be there
forever well and that I can’t I can’t
erase it but they they don’t believe it
happened it’s over it’s gone Take Your
Mind Eraser shot take a drink at your
vodka and call it a day all right what
would we want to do in
IBM if I’m looking at IBM I don’t
necessarily know that I want the risk of
anything Tesla moved its expected move
look at this it’s been some chop but
it’s Tesla expected move was $13 yeah
but so Tesla moved wrapped around its
expected move it’s moved 17 today it was
13 last night like it’s not didn’t blow
it didn’t blow it out of the water yeah
it didn’t blow it wasn’t like two times
it’s expensive no and so we’ve got some
chop up here IBM has been staying in
this range since its last earnings what
do you think about um just a calendar I
know I think IBM can move I feel like
IBM can move on earnings but I went so I
went to May with 23 days we’re only
spending 110 I can move I don’t discre
it can move so if you buy a calendar
moves then you’re out you have 23 days
for it to come right back to the 185
level 23 days I just see I’ve seen IBM
have moves on earnings we’ve seen it
yeah can move it’s right here everybody
has seen
it yeah yeah it’s I’ve seen plenty of
down moves too so so the expected move
for this cycle is $12 up and $12 down so
if you wanted to I’m not going to sell
this but that this would be for the
expected move for the
cycle and you’re in May and you’re in
May
you’re not in the two day so the two-
day this expected move is only $9 that’s
way too little 12 madees sense that’s
what I’m saying let so so just humor me
for a
minute 177 175 look can you if you buy
the 177 sell the 175 if you buy the put
spread you want to buy I want to see if
if like what I did in uh
No7 177 175 it’s got to be closer
is that a dollar okay and then to the
upside like 187
190
so 250 wide you’re paying a$1
60 you can make a dollar you can make
$85
no it’s only 250 wide but my point with
these trades if it if it doesn’t if it
has a big move you make money if it
doesn’t you can get on the open for a
small loss yeah I almost feel like these
are the same things as buying these and
getting out on the open for as m not
selling not selling buying um oh buying
the stradle at the end of the day and
getting out on the open it’s $10 so
that’s a lot but I you know you’re not
going to lose that much if you get out
on the open even if it doesn’t move that
much you’re not going to lose
$10 yeah but I feel like IBM if it
doesn’t move on the open tomorrow yeah
lose like you can probably sell for five
bucks yeah you’re going to lose $6 400
yeah you lose something but not all of
it well okay what’s up next do you want
to jump back into Twitter what are are
you still in real Caribbean no I’m off
my cruise I sold aggressive calls until
it went bye-bye where is it
uh 137 I think it was up there when I
sold it it’s been in this range I sold
calls calls calls I like it Royal
Caribbean actually because I want The
State Room credit has been very very
very good to me so now it’s tough It’s
So Hard
I so we’re in Twitter right now by the
way yeah let’s oh we are yes we are in
Twitter right now okay Mikey Happy Home
day L’s not full on pirate mode but
loving Jenny’s top
you know I love anything with puffy
sleeves wait till you see the I bought
myself a dress yesterday they’re this
big they’re going to hit the wall wait
are you bringing it tomorrow no a summer
a summmer puffy
sleeve can’t wait to put that over the
trading if it were red I’d wear your
training jacket is going to make you
look like a like a linebacker oh well
I’m not going to wear that with a
trading jacket on I know that’s what I’m
saying you got to uh okay Mike or there
have been other tweets coming in from
the Polish Warrior that came in earlier
but here we got Steve Jones while you
are at the seabo please get us some live
shots of the new action in the old
location so I was talking to them
yesterday and the SPX still is about 40%
open
outcry I can’t wait to be down there
watching them trade live the Zer DTE
we’ll get to see like what’s going on
how many are trading here how many are
trading there what orders are coming in
so now a lot of it is electronic so
you’re going to have to read the board
in order to see it but there are some
still that are open outcry which was
pretty cool it was the SPX the vix pit
the &ps the rot it was really cool yeah
there’s going to we’re going to be busy
down there busy down it was really cool
um interested to see how much open
outcry is still happening I mean what
they told me was about 40% I can’t wait
I can’t wait for a day when something
goes Bonkers and we’re there I hope
we’re there for it I hope we’re there
for it uh okay and Bob on fire had the
earnings we’ll get back to those Frank
came in with the economic calendar Frank
the great I got your text I’ll for sure
check the SEO floor for you Frank from
came from the SEO as well so we’re gonna
have to get a cast of we need to get
pictures of all of build Floor Traders
before we go down there’s quite a few
well who is it me you Tom Tony Pete
Frank
Walsh oh but a lot of guys from the
trade desk oh yeah that’s true a lot of
guys from the trade desk but not a lot
of onair personalities that’s it for the
personalities right as far as on air
personalities but people from the I
think Dr Data too didn’t Dr Data have a
stint on the floor well I don’t know
maybe in the bonds and TP and TP TP and
TP so there’s eight of us yeah yeah
um so if you’re on YouTube and you want
to have something post on Twitter just
post on YouTube and Frank will share it
with everyone uh Frank’s amazing now
Mikey look at this polish princess for
the win that’s that’s
me Glen Gary Glenn Ross is correct
although Jenny getting the movie
reference before Liz makes him think of
this cats and dogs living together
Ghostbusters I never get the movies
right never I’m not gonna lie to you I
never saw Glenn Gary GL well here
remember okay polish Warrior I’d like to
State my case please keep in mind I’m
strictly 90s movies once I started
drinking I stopped watching movies no
I’m pretty sure Glen Gary Glenn Ross is
like from the 80s I don’t know but
that’s not that was not one that I
watched so 90s movies because we sold
the videos once we once I went to
college I don’t think I watched a movie
again unless Disney movies I mean look
at how young Alec Baldwin is here let’s
see I’m G to take it to the tape it
looks and it’s a gift um it I it’s an
old movie but it you know why you
haven’t seen it because you don’t have
any salesmen in your house if if you are
in sales you’ve seen Glen Gary Glenn
Ross it’s all about being a Salesman is
it mhm
92 I told you close I told you I I ended
it 1990 oh and I said 80s yeah October
2nd 1992 Glen Gary you end it 1990
watching movies I did you didn’t watch a
movie I don’t think I did when we you
didn’t watch a movie in college no come
on no you never watched a movie in
college no I never went to the movies in
college we never really watched movies
in college I don’t no we were out a lot
Jenny I liked a lot of movies um you and
you know you know what I found out for
those of you
who I went out with a group of people
yesterday we do it like once every two
years my my old neighborhood yeah um my
old neighborhood got together we are all
friends because we had our Days of Our
Lives Club every day we’d meet at noon
and watch Days of our lives together do
you know it is still on on their 59th
season and it’s this please keep in mind
this group is jam-packed with boys too I
just want to say that
they’re on their 59th season still on
still some of the characters we watched
When We Were Young really uhhuh yes gree
lens or lots of lots of work done but
it’s insane 59 seasons do you think we
can make it 59 Seasons hey we made it 13
Jenny and we’re still going strong we
thought we’d have three months we’ve
made it 13 years three months 59 Seasons
we might so this is actually surpassed
me being on the sibo floor that’s what I
was talking about yesterday because I
was there for 12 years and this is going
to be 13 yeah yeah that’s a lot you were
on the floor a long time yeah 12 years I
was only there 97 to
2004 seven years right yeah eight seven
eight um okay I want to go back to Bob’s
list because okay you tell me what
you’re interested in okay I know we’re
on the platform on theform but Jenny’s
gonna read thank you very much let’s go
to love do we have a position in love O
Let’s see if we okay let’s go can we go
backwards I want to see if we have
positions in any airlines we don’t we
don’t no we don’t have we might have you
all we save but you don’t consider that
I don’t come that it’s just so small
it’s such a small position kid I’m
kidding it is an airline but it’s just a
small position we don’t have U all we
don’t have American Airlines we don’t
have Delta let’s get into love um
there’s enough premium in in here to get
into love 53 rank earnings $140 expected
move you might have to look at at the 23
day I think you got to look at the 23
day so here’s what Jenny’s I know you
can’t see my mouse but what we’re
looking at when we opened it up is you
know there’s $14 Who’s down 14 I’m just
letting you know I can see I got a
screen in the words of Tom and Tony I
got a screen um there’s not a lot of
Premium here so even if you’re selling
it you want to get something you’re
getting 50 cents you’re not out of the
way the expected move so that’s why
Jenny’s advocating going a little
farther out further out in time May or
even June but you can do um I wouldn’t
even in love I might just
sell here’s the thing the 27 half puts
for. 50 cents don’t don’t sound like a
lot but but not when not when we’re
trading in one Lots but how do you feel
about a baby Jade lizard I don’t know
because if it goes through the calls I
personally I’ll probably just sell the
27 and a half points I don’t mind that
it’s 50 cents but it’s only 50 cents
that’s fine but that’s what I was trying
to get with the Jade lizard too so
taking it all we’re doing is taking it
down by 50 Cents now it’s an it it
here’s what we say is frustrating like
we trade in one L we don’t scale in this
account so we might have a position in a
bigger product where we have a lot more
risk and then here we’re taking in 49
cents where not if we were if we were
scaling and our risk would we would be
doing more than one of those and so we
cut it’s not fair to say though oh
because we’re a smaller account we have
to bring it up because we wouldn’t no
but with a 54 rank 83 cents makes sense
this gets us so this gets us to 27 and a
half in the in May I just want to see if
it gets us out of the way expected move
down here gets us to the expected move
then we’re in love we don’t have any
other airlines if it goes down we roll
it and let’s look at the chart see where
we would get in we get in at 27 and a
half so right about there sure it’s been
there it’s also been down
here yeah let’s get into love now let’s
let’s split the difference so you wanted
the meaning well you could go to June if
you want more premium you can go to June
no I don’t want that time if it goes up
I want to take this you know what I mean
I was just thinking you wanted the 27
and a half I thought the 28 and a half
let’s split the difference 28 28 65
cents yeah ship it that’s compromised at
its finest Jenny Andrews all right so
that is love and uh caterpillar I don’t
know caterpillar just reminds me of my
dad I got to look at it he loved good
oldfashioned
caterpillar he was a farm boy though he
grew up with farm equipment okay
so caterpillar a caterpillar $362 it’s
okay too bad we didn’t too bad you
didn’t hang on to your caterpillar pry
sure I inherited it at like 30 what year
is this yeah you inherited it in the 90s
you’re still in no not in the 90s when
did I get it um I got it I think
probably right here
oh that this is why and I sold it okay
so I was talking to you about this
earlier let’s say you have let’s say you
have some Stacks in your portfolio and
you have you know reinvest the dividend
so you’re building more and then you
have the you don’t
have 100 shares you have 100 points
blah blah blah blah blah you’ve got the
point and then you end up selling those
shares but you still have the 0 z48 and
I want to get rid of all of those 0 Z
whatever uh you know what fractional
shares because I don’t want to open my
account in 10 years and see it I bought
this because I it happens now oh you
want to get rid of the prices where it’s
like yes yes so it happens in City group
so like I just pulled this up because
this is the one that I this is my
fractional STS this is how you know
replicates T bill so it’s 5% so it goes
up then it goes down then it goes up
then it goes down because it’s just
giving us dividends but City Group um
okay so City group so I still have
fractional shares in there from City
group and it says like I bought them at
42 but I have my 0 Z you know just a
very fractional share and so I hate
looking at it and seeing like oh I
bought these at 42 and then it’s trading
62 it’s frustrating so I’m trying to get
rid of all evidence of previous
purchases or we open up a new margin
account for you and you slide everything
that you don’t want to look at into
something want the I don’t want the
fractional shares just want them gone I
just want them gone Gonzo and drink your
mind to eraser shot and call it a day
gzo I want all I want all evidence gone
so you’re not because otherwise it’s on
a daily basis you know how you looked at
caterpillar and you’re like geez I
bought it at 30 now it’s 350 but I don’t
look at it on a daily basis no but if
you had the fractional shares in there
you
would you see it every day you’re
like painful pain all right 1028 let’s
see there are there any other earnings
uh well there might be something what’s
your assumption there could be there
could be so we did so far all we did we
only did a trade in
love meta what meta I’m fine with an
iron Condor and meta it’s meta’s a
little expensive it’s got to be but the
expected move is
$42 SOA I don’t mind going to meta and
selling an iron Condor we got a $42
expected move that’s pretty big let’s
see how little I can make it
yeah so you can actually take less risk
to the Top If you wanted you can take a
$150 and risk to the top because 250
wide strikes and $5 on the bottom or
okay or you take the full $5 I’m
actually going to take it in yeah I’m
fine with that you only have a dollar in
Risk on the upside and you’ve got 340 in
Risk on the
downside let’s see where it brings this
to I want to see it so it’s like
450 450 right right where it’s look at
this since it’s last pop up 450
a dollar is not a lot though to collect
well $1 60 it’s a third it’s as if we’re
just selling one side yeah or you’re
getting 260 which is a chicken on both
sides yeah to the chicken sure then
we’re in you know how why did it say
buying power effect
485 um because I did an $8 Wi on the
top that’s why that’s why I like the
dollar so if you make a mistake
okay so let’s see we have a $5 wide on
the downside and we have a 750 wide to I
like the you wanted a $5 wide $5 wide
you can’t do with that short see that
see what happened here I moved it by one
strike oh that’s what
happened okay so I’m just going to do
this I’m gonna buy this back and sell
that then we’re only getting then we’re
not collecting enough for the downside
getting a dollar whatever it’s it’s then
we have three third it’s a third then if
it goes down we’re losing more but I
don’t want $8 S I don’t want $400 RIS to
the upside I was was more worried about
the upside where I was going to narrow
it and you know what so like look at
this because we’re we’re fast Traders I
moved it by one strike but it went from
$250 to $5
wide so just go back to what we
collected
originally on the position page we
collected $259 if we pay a dollar then
we collected $159 yeah that’s we were
putting it in it was a$1 60 then we
don’t have that risk to the upside so
I’m going to close this one and I’m
going to sell that one I’m paying a
dollar
okay and just and so usually that’s what
I’ll glance at as I’m pushing a trade
through buying power because if it looks
off then it usually is it usually
something’s off all right we’ll make
sure we get filled in that oh we’re good
okay all right we’re going to take a
quick break we’ll be back with what’s
your assumption stay
tuned dear Chad thank you for trusting
me with the workload of five people this
week it was an invaluable learning
experience all 97
hours sometimes it feels good to get
smart get even smarter with live trading
insights and some life taunting you made
me print out something for you in 40
Point font from the the smart mouths at
Tasty life
[Music]
[Music]
how we respond to the most difficult
situations is ultimately how we learn to
build on our successes
[Music]
it takes the guesswork out of retail
[Music]
[Music]
trading well he’s more public in his
mentality I’m a Believer I believe that
the world is good and I know that the
world is not good that questioning
yourself and and questioning yourself in
dialogue with someone you respect is
both Pleasant and sometimes extremely
insightful and useful sometimes
[Music]
hello everybody and welcome back to this
wacky and wild Wednesday it’s what’s
your assumption what’s your assumption
and I’m gonna be totally surprised I
didn’t hear a thing today me neither
neither I’m GNA guess if I I’m GNA make
some extrapolations there’s gonna be a
trade small trade off and John there’s G
to be some from
overseas there’s going to be some that
say me Lord in them good guess
all right John let’s hit us with our
theme
music or the first slide whichever comes
first there it
[Applause]
is what do we have uh
airm okay versus iot don’t know what iot
is is that bullish one year one day to
one year bullish this is Richard from
San Francisco affirm and iot long off
their 200 day with strength I think long
and short-term bottom is in I got long
for earnings and leaps Monday morning in
both uh he’s on team Tom Port Tony Port
Tony all right affirm and L iot so he’s
long both I just wanted to see this so
he’s bullish both because they okay it’s
not a pair it’s not like get long one
that’s I was just making sure a f RM you
ain’t got no Lai okay so let’s go to a
firm let’s jump in the platform John
let’s take a look all right he’s bullish
he got bullish leaps it’s only $32 if
we’re bullish I don’t mind selling a put
here I don’t either I just want to show
what he did real quick if he’s bullish
leaps that means he went out far in time
JN 17 is a leap and he bought something
sure you can so I just buy the stock
well that’s what I want to see if you
buy that 15 you’re you’re giving up 132
in extrinsic value and you’re putting up
$1,900 to do it and if you so the stock
must be cash secured it’s got to be cash
secured no no but you know what you
could do you could do a leap as a stock
replacement and you can buy something
that has more exic value if you’re going
to sell short shorter term out of the
money against it so let’s say you buy
the 22 and a half or the 25 um that’s a
lot of extrinsic value that’s a lot of
exter value but what can we what are we
going to get in May you can get it you
can you can we okay so if I sell the 32
so if it goes up you’re not going to
make anything no I don’t mean get it in
one cycle I mean get it after like three
Cycles so put your call at a 30 Delta
put your call at a 30 Delta and you’re
getting a $150 well go to the 38 for
$160 if you get a160 three times in
three months you’ve covered your exic
value you’re you’re going through
earnings on this one which might they’re
getting a little bit more okay option A
so I know we’re John we will get to all
of them but I I kind of like this one
you got a $32 stock I don’t mind it now
the other thing you can do if you’re
long-term bullish would be if you’re
willing and I’m assuming this team
Talent they’re a Trader they watch every
day you can go near term and just keep
reestablish Ling so similar but you’re
still paying you’re you’re still paying
a140 yeah but you’re outlaying less
Capital right instead of $1,100 and then
you can go to here and you’re going to
be paying what we were the 38 level
you’re going to be paying 772 we cut it
down by 300 if you know how to trade you
can just reestablish each month right
right um but I will so you’re paying
a140 in extrinsic value for a June so
you figure if you’re red doing that
every time and every time you’re you’re
just covering your exter value you’re
never collecting
any yes you are you see what I’m saying
so the other the other thing too if you
think you’re bullish I was going to look
at a zebra with a call against it
because that’s a synthetic cover call um
the other thing that you can do that you
and I do not do but if you’re bullish
and you don’t want to pay any extrinsic
value you can buy but you’re paying 237
extrinsic value you can sell this yeah
it’s just a it’s just a it’s a one for
one you can make 200 bucks and it’s only
$200 yes that’s bullish this is bullish
um you can do you can do that taking a
look at a zebra which I would like to do
let’s go to a June zebra just see how
much it is so a zebra we haven’t done a
zebra I was thinking this we haven’t
done a zebra in a long time it’s uh
selling a 50 Delta buying 270 deltas and
this fits all their criteria long-term
bullish now I didn’t go all the way out
to I did not go all the way out to it’s
going to
be, but you’re paying zero extrinsic
value you’re paying the same amount
without extrinsic value right if you
wanted to then here in this situation
you can go and still sell this um you
can still sell that and get something so
you’ll make money one for one from 3221
all the way up to 38 and you’re only
putting $800 to do it if it goes up
great I think I mean we like the zebra
because you’re not giving up any
extrinsic value you’re actually reducing
your basis it’s not bad if it goes down
let’s say it goes down to your your
where’s your long uh 27 and a half then
that’s going to be the E money that’ll
gain some extrinsic value as long as you
get out of it it’s they’re yeah I don’t
mind the zebra should we do this in a
firm so I think so this is this would be
my this is but we’re Traders we like
zebras Tom now I know your team Tom I
get it Tom’s got all the money in the
world so for him he’d go he would just
go sell puts yeah he’d go sell puts or
buy the stock and sell something against
it because it’s so cheap because we’re
doing the zebra and we’re not using any
extrinsic value you could bring that
call down that’s what I was thinking the
same exact thing so we’re going to make
money from you know 3230 to 35 in a firm
sure get into a firm all right number
two John well ow and we never looked at
iot which I don’t even know what that is
that’s why I want to make sure it wasn’t
a pair I don’t know what have you I
wouldn’t I’d be curious to see what is
but Walmart bullish 45d he is trade
small tradeoff and John okay so trade
small tradeoff and John he’s made enough
money trading to pay for his crises this
year now he’s working on buying new
countertops sweet he’s 20% or 30% of the
way there sweet this Walmart’s gonna
push him over the edge
so okay ivr 96 W this has to be earnings
right Walmart’s majority owned fintech
startup called one has started offering
buy now pay later services this was
Vanetta was talking about oh and that’s
why it’s C currently using a firm huh
well Walmart went down yesterday but
bring but bringing in bnpl closer to
in-house should be a positive buy now
pay later buy now pay later it’s kind of
like layway by the dip buy now pay later
but with layway you would pay and then
eventually get it you wouldn’t get it
until you pay remember like did you ever
buy anything on layway when you were
young like like Montgomery Awards you’d
go in yeah okay so we had Venture not
far from us you go to venture so
everyone like you’d be like like oh my
gosh I really want this sweater well
it’s $50 well back then it was probably
like $20 I don’t have even been nine
yeah but I’m going to put it on
layway I do remember that okay so let’s
jump into the platform 93 93 rank you
are bullish but we can go through
earnings um yeah you can go through
earnings but okay 93 rank let’s see $3
expect to move in June and may is 250 I
would stick with May when you’re so
close you only have 50 cents difference
you can see you can see here that this
is the earning cycle
yeah Walmart I would just do it the wait
a second hold on hold on they had a
dividend or something a split they must
have had a real big SP they must have
had a big split right what was the split
in Walmart if I had my phone I’d search
it you have a computer the
internet I’ve got Twitter pulled up I’ve
got a lot going on over here
um there’s no news in Walmart at all
so Trad Walmart is not $59 in Trad small
it is
$59 this is actually accurate this is
Walmart it’s a $59 it must have split it
must have can you pop out the news did
you do that I just did it there’s no
news and what did you see no news we
must have missed the the Walmart split
well we don’t trade Walmart that often
because there isn’t usually that much
premium in it here I’m going to show you
I wish I had my phone you go to 58
you’re you’re using $1,000 in a $50
product so let’s close this up and let
trade small tradeoff and John have his
Heyday in walart let us know how
somebody tell me on Twitter someone
posted on Twitter include the hash La
jny Y what was the Walmart split when
was it because we don’t trade Walmart
that often I did I traded in the Walmart
pit for years they were invited to my
wedding the whole Walmart crd the whole
Walmart crowd got invited to my wedding
all right let’s pop into number three
John SN bullish trending fundamentals do
you notice the the trend bullish bullish
bullish sometimes you get them in
they’re bearish bearish bearish I know
now with Market sentiments turned around
we had upate Monday up Tuesday now
everyone’s bullish uh SN this is from
Nicholas from Buffalo okay
SN I you know what I looked into good
because Buffalo makes me think of I
don’t know why it makes me think of
Niagara Falls I looked into say buffalo
chicken I’ve never seen the Niagara
Falls and we’re going to be in Toronto
do you know there’s a twoh hour we can
take a two-hour train ride and see
Niagara Falls and then come back would
you you put would you put one of those
coats on with me and go under the Falls
go go in a barrel yes let’s do it yeah
do you want to take a two-hour training
go see Niagara Falls I know but I told
br I’m only there for one night I know
yeah okay but here’s can you see the
live show yes you know what I love look
at this SN it comes up underneath now
whoever’s hot on the trigger you’re
doing a great job oh perfect yeah SN um
so we could see right there $62 they’re
bullish trending fundamentals expansion
and innovation of product portfolio for
summer camping and tail getting gear
okay SN SN
is you got a
SN shark ninja of course
okay so there are earnings coming up if
you want to be bullish you can actually
just I mean it’s only 127,000 shares
traded this isn’t really that liquid I’m
guessing
o cash secured cash secured if if I were
bullish in shark ninja if I were bullish
in shark ninja and it’s cash secured i’
just buy a call I’m buying buying the 55
call I’m actually if I were bullish in
shark ninja this is oh yeah yeah yeah
yeah you’re spending $278 you’ve got a
50-50 shot same thing as if you bought
stock and you can only make you know 22
good idea good idea but it’s only 128 we
try to stick stick with liquid product
so we’re going to have to kind of that
one wmart three for one stock split that
was uh January 30th
2024 it’s not that long
ago but is $50
but three four on stock $150 let’s pop
the next one I mean it yeah I think they
all split around that time but let’s um
pop back in for the next one um plld
bullish 90 days this is from um
contagious
funny funny
Kent from New York okay PL D bullish I
think uh that more Cold Storage is
needed for all the Costco Walmart and
Amazon shipments however I see that plld
has been going down I thought it would
have moved up with these docks all right
I don’t know anything about cold storage
do you uh no not really
prologis do you know them they’re
everywhere like drive down the
expressway and all you see is prologis
prologis prologis they must be
refrigerated semi- trucks yeah no
they’re
like um Standalone buildings oh Cold
Storage yeah for they everywhere I
didn’t know what was going on in those
prolog loes now I
do um okay so $102 they’re
bullish let’s take a look I don’t see
earnings I don’t see earnings either
this seems very I’d go to May this seems
I just want to see this I mean I’d go to
June so take a look what were we just in
where it was $5,000 for that was uh
shark ninja shark ninja thank you very
much shark ninja now here we still it’s
still pretty IL liquid we have $102
product but you’re only putting up 18
1.3 million traded go to June definit
because otherwise we’ll be rolling this
in two days we’ll be rolling in two days
you know what we’re going to stick to
the rest of this year we’re rolling at
21 days come H high water unless you put
it on at the 22 day Mark unless we’re
rolling at 22 days unless it’s full loss
unless it’s like0 50 cents or less away
from Full loss we’re not GNA take it hey
I’m just listening to the market
measures I’m just I’m just following the
rules I told you on the listen and Jenny
show the rules are I am a rule follower
I I am a rule follower you claim to be a
rule follower you are the least rule
follow I know your parents are watching
and I apologize in advance but you are
the least rule follower I know in what
way life except for driving slow she
drives very very very very very slow we
have to book our flights to Toronto I
saw that the flight Tom wanted to take
was $100 more a ticket than the uh than
the United flight so what did I do I let
our I let Britney know Britney this
flight is $200 okay she’s gonna come
running in here right now to defend
herself if you go any farther no and I
just said I don’t want to book something
and Beyond Beyond uh our I don’t I don’t
want to get in trouble I don’t want to
get denied on my expense report which
we’ve already we because Liz and I were
recently denied I get denied all the
time we we bought the uh we bought the
United club for 50 bucks each yes denied
which was cheaper than our wine would
have been out we’re like yeah free
drinks they were saving them money
denied R watching okay plld prologis if
you want to be bullish in this sure uh
yeah always find my risk though I you
know this only using $1,200 we don’t
even need to we’re money money calls
money bags we had $20,000 in buying
power fine we get filled we get filled
hold on let me see it’s got take a look
at this 135 at 150 we’re going to let
the fates decide we’re going to let the
market makers that are running this show
running this it’s quoted in nickels so
nobody’s going to see our 142 offer
quoted in nickels traded in pennies
Jenny Andrews this is the this is the
I’m just telling you no one’s our offer
is not goingon to go up the 145 offer
went up yep so we might as well just ask
for 145 can see that stuff in the book
or it’s electronically and no one sees
it no you can see it in the book that’s
what I’m saying you and I cannot wait to
get back to the seat to see the book
okay uh what’s
next GDX we have Smalls and they’re
bearish we have GDX um what do we have a
big lizard something like that oh never
mind what we’re going to Toronto not
Ontario what were you gonna say I was
going to say come to see us in July 22nd
oh he’s in Ontario yeah that’s not as
close to Toronto as you’d think it is
Canada is a big place big really big
okay I just saw I saw and got excited
GDX bearish we have a GDX
position we’re bullish want to jump in
and
see so we we have 35 31 35
37 it’s a big lizard it is a big lizard
now let’s jump in the platform so
everybody can see what we’re doing and
in two days this is getting
closed in two days well yeah in two days
because the point being the point being
at the 21 Day Mark we’re closing and
putting a new one on in June giving
ourselves better foot in GDX I’m not
just going to leave this we’re closing
at 21 days I’m I’m following the rules
so the
GDX when you take a look at this here’s
what we need you can um and he’s bearish
he’s bearish he’s bearish so this is
similar to like when Anton and I were on
in GDX bearish well we put on look at uh
if you go to the trade page if you if
you look at a butterfly like 32 3130
butterfly oh you want the put
butterfly it’s cheap 10 cents
yeah look at that 40 cents if you’re
bearish I’d pay 40 cents 58 days it’s a
long it’s a long time that’s a long time
that you almost have to go in May yeah I
don’t know and Tim night I are bullish
in GD yeah you Liz’s got we’ve got a
bullish trade so Tim said that not that
it matters but he said this could have
some room to run oh GDX possibly maybe
all right well all right what’s next
because we have we have 10 minutes and
we’re on number five five we better get
moving we and six B pnw P also networks
new
APO Aldo networks June
21st this is from the rodeo peanut from
Burlington New Jersey p a n w um they’re
neutral earnings you’ve got earnings
It’s Tricky you’ve got earnings and may
is getting running out of time okay so
we don’t I don’t we don’t trade neutral
through earnings because it’s like
running in sand can you get there yes
but it’s going to take you a lot longer
because the Decay and the Theta doesn’t
come in because it’s going to expect to
this the implied volatility continues to
go up in the earning cycle yes yes okay
next next next next and we will get we
have some tweets we’ll get to them at
the end okay um Intel Intel they have
earnings Intel is a complete Pig but
they’re foolish uh but Pig stands for
because it’s p period IG because they
say pig pig Tom and Tony say pig pig uh
so Intel is a complete Pig but at these
levels it looks enticing tomat what are
your thoughts I have a bullish position
in Intel right now
um this is the only thing that has not
worked like not the only thing but this
is one no I sell puts sell some puts do
it no but being bullish up here I think
I got in like right around here been
like oh this this is the only thing that
hasn’t had a massive run I’m so
smart uh the question is though they
have earnings April 25th which is
tomorrow but that doesn’t matter if you
are directional you can go through
earnings you go yes but what I would
look at is the so we’ve got $2 expected
move in the two- day three in the 23 day
or 370 I might stick with the 23 day and
we could roll it out after earnings so
taking a look at this you’re getting 70
cents for the 32 and a half it brings
you to you know the expected move of the
cycle you’re only putting up 474 to do
it not bad not bad J not bad not bad
okay that was quick we’re actually
putting on quite a bit yeah we didn’t do
bad you’re allowing us to open trades
today uh a ANF bearish is this still do
you remember it was Bonkers this is from
Adam from Jersey City New Jersey
um assuming the top is in ANF let’s go
to the Chart well he did it yesterday
it’s down three bucks so good job Adam
but so assuming the top is in so I would
sell a call spread and try to give
yourself some room take for us that’s
what I’m saying to it’s not a trade
recommendation I mean this is the one
this is I I’ll never forget Chris vaco
being like hey I know every was looking
at Nvidia and all the stuff what about
what is happening in Amber kampi and
Finch this went from $10 to1 130 I know
it’s crazy it is crazy so if the top is
in you have earnings out but if you’re
directional it doesn’t matter no but I
still might stay in the May sure do yeah
just sell a call spread let’s see so
keep in mind this goes from $1 to $5
yeah 1225 130 you’re not getting enough
you well it’s that’s not bad yeah it’s
St that that’s a pretty big you’re
getting $10 away gets you I mean would
you say this was like a meme stock I
think so something happened with it
something
happened something happened 125 130 and
you’ve got three days I mean you’ve got
3 days until we have to roll
it 3 days go to well it’s different when
you’ve got earnings cuz you’re trying to
avoid earnings no but you could go to
either one so yeah I’m you’re trying to
you’re trying to get this get this on
and off before earnings yeah because
Amber CR is gonna kill it they’re back
on earnings no idea everyone’s wearing
their cologne
again all right what’s next
John uh TSN is that Taiwan semiconductor
Don from Cleveland Ohio Cleveland Ohio
nice city have you ever been did you
ever did you go visit John Caroll with
us when we went no but I have uh
relatives in Ohio so I’ve been in
Cleveland did not visit John Carol why
would I gone to John Carol with you we
all went there when we were in college
Oh I thought you went with your son I
was like you
never no Cleveland is is not close to um
where Logan is Logan’s close to
Cincinnati Cleveland is not close to
that okay Tyson C are down stock has
been trending up so he’s both oh TSN
it’s not Taiwan some Tyson Food Tyson
Foods yeah big difference big difference
Hogs and Kett are down okay go to I’m
just curious go to lean
Hogs if you’re trading Hogs and cattle I
think I’d rather trade lean Hogs than
Tyson what is lean hog there we go live
cattles that’s live no no Ln right or h
e h
e lean Hogs H lean Hogs there you want
live or
lean okay so if we wanted to sell a call
spread in lean Hogs we could or no but
they’re bullish enticing Foods they’re
bullish still didn’t they say bullish I
guess so so if they’re bullish in tison
you we don’t mind going through earnings
you can go after earnings let’s take a
look at these if you’re bullish sell a
puts spread look at or or sell a jade
lizard are you shocked that Tyson Foods
is 290k in N&M no because we’ve never
traded Tyson Foods when I saw TSN I
didn’t even know what it was but I’m
shocked because look at this what I
guess when I opened it up usually the
illiquid products have you know just the
monthlies this is weeklies it’s three
stars
who’s giving out these
Stars they’re way too generous handing
out these Stars it’s three stars you can
do a jade lizard though and the buying
power is not bad it’s 58 put 6465 call
spread but again I are we going are we
really doing may when we got a roll in
two
days well it’s through earnings that
would be our earnings trade yeah yeah
fine see breaking the rules
already I said come H high water we’re
rolling everything in 21
days okay we’re in t all what’s next I
thought I think it’s we thought it was
Taiwan semicond conductors uh oh bullish
AMD Ryan from Steamboat Springs and then
we can get to our Twitter because you
said there’s some coming in um I was
kind of excited about where he was from
but you didn’t really care oh I do love
you know I love Colorado it’s probably
skiing right
now AMD uh Advanced Micro Devices and
you are bullish I let’s go to the Chart
I think it has fallen so yeah puts I at
79 rank they have earnings uh here I’d
go to May probably you can get 250 just
I just want to see how much U how much
it costs $1,300 that’s not bad no it’s
not bad I like 250 at
135 yeah it’s $5 i p i like this I’m
shipping it sh and then let’s pop in
into Twitter oh yeah I just wanted to
let the crew know because Uncle B2 says
kudos to the production Peeps and I
agree kudos to the production peeps uh
than everything they do but he said says
he really likes the new Twitter crop box
for on
screen and then are you going to finish
oh did y’all ever invent that additional
strategy dance for the new tour y’all
promised uh yeah the zebra the because
because mine’s on the road is the Jade
lizard and I was gonna make a dance the
Jade lizard yeah maybe I will maybe I’ll
just do the
worm can you do the
worm I probably I don’t I think I could
that just reminds me of our friend
remember when she tried to do the worm
and her husband’s like it’s a dead fish
she’s doing the dead
fish yeah maybe I’ll just do the worm if
Jenny does the worm I I will pay a
significant amount of money if you will
do the worm on stage
um no I you know it depends on the
crowd Toronto I don’t know it depends on
the crowd okay how about this how about
you worm on the SEO floor just to test
it out when I say it depends on the
crowd you can’t assess that ahead of
time it’s because do you remember last
time I said I forgot what I was going to
do oh I was gon to make everyone get up
and do the naked put Dan and I was like
this and then I no you’re not gonna and
then when I scouted out the crowd I
thought they’re not gonna like
that they’re not gonna want to do that
this is not gonna go over well this is
not gonna go over well um all right did
we make it through all 10 I think we did
10 for 10 now we did quite a bit of
stuff today so let’s pop in the platform
real quick go to activity we did a lot
we did a lot yeah how much wait I just
want to check while if you want start
from the bottom up and say what we did I
want okay Boeing we bought back our put
spread that we sold on earnings uh
Southwest we sold a put meta we sold an
iron condor in the two-day for earnings
um and then we adjusted it so I don’t
know when we push things out I guess we
have to push all of that out yeah you
got it I mean it happened it was a
mistake yeah um a firm we did zebra and
then sold a call against it that’s
covered call so that’s we’re putting you
know we just jumped in on his bullish uh
bullish assumption and airm put a lot of
money into it um it’s got Walmart
everybody’s in there until we sold a put
AMD we sold a put and plld we sold what
was
plld oh it’s whatever is everywhere the
free refrigerated
storage so I’m gonna put um I think we
have we have a minute or two I’m gonna
try to put some gtc’s in Johnny just
because oh well if they’re on earnings
on earnings we don’t a lot of them wen’t
earnings I don’t think we traded
earnings love except for love I’m not
going to put GTC in for that and meta so
we won’t do that love and meta we’re
going to be in the car meta love and
meta go together put it so we’re not
gonna be we’re gonna be in the car on
the open tomorrow so put in something
for love and
meta okay I will even though I don’t
like to put gtc’s I’m not putting GTC
for 50% in for those but we’ll put GTC
for like 80%
100% I don’t mind actually so I’m put in
for uh yeah like 85 85% sure 10 cents
the back for sure okay and then Meta
Meta is different because it’s an iron
Condor and they’re still going to be
tomorrow’s only Thursday so yeah put in
50% I
think especially because no it’s only
two days oh then put in like 80% yeah
let’s put in quite a bit just in case it
gets hit
80%
okay all right and that’s it it’s 11 o’
yeah we are done done IND dusted for the
day uh we did it we made it and again
kudos to the uh production team
production team yeah they’re doing
they’re doing a great job all right
everybody have a wonderful afternoon
good luck with your earnings and
remember to trade small trade often
laugh with us learn with us and watch
the Liz and Jenny show tomorrow
everybody hi I’m Ryan Grace with tasty
crypto and today we’re going to talk
about the Bitcoin habit
the having refers to a reduction in the
reward Bitcoin miners receed for mining
Bitcoin when a miner successfully adds a
new block to the blockchain the minor is
rewarded in Bitcoin and today this
reward is 6 and A4 Bitcoin per block
after the having the mining reward will
be cut in half and miners will only
receive 3 and 1 eigh Bitcoin per
block this is not the first having the
having is programmed into the Bitcoin
source code and automatically occurs
after every 210,000 block period as new
blocks are added to the chain every 10
minutes habings occur roughly every 4
years and this is all by
Design the having process is a feature
of Bitcoin intended to control inflation
of the cryptocurrency and ensure
long-term security of the network the
having adds a degree of predictability
and stability to the supply of Bitcoin
compared to many Fiat currencies which
are susceptible to abrupt changes in
monetary policy and government
intervention there is no Central
Authority that can manipulate the supply
of Bitcoin it’s pre-programmed over
time this matters to investors as prior
having events have marked the start of
significant price increases for the
cryptocurrency think about it this way
if the rate at which the supply of
Bitcoin is growing gets cut in half and
demand stays the same or increases it
can be quite positive for prices
following prior
2016 and 650 in 2020 no one knows what’s
going to happen this time but if it’s
anything like the last having Bitcoin
investors could be in for a bullish
[Music]
ride TI me and Mikey Valentine’s
Day
HR
ready eight years and you say nine yeah
it’s 8 to n it’s same same thing it was
right there right we started he was my
friend first
[Music]
clearly met at work yeah tasty we met
here Mike interviewed me for a support
role uh right when I was starting off so
Mikey was here that was where the Mike
and his whiteboard came he’s nervous uh
he gets nervous sometimes when we’re
this close together what I remember
about Nick was uh his beautiful brown
hair and brown facial hair which no
longer say it say
it looking for a better broker and a
bonus sweet we got you right now you can
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trade need a little more luck in your
life I’m Vanetta and this is your first
look at the spring issue of luck box the
latest luck box is all about the Auto
industry and once again your free
digital subscription is available at get
luckbox tocom in 2022 the US Auto
industry sold
13.75 million vehicles and it feels like
I got stuck behind all of them this
morning in traffic and in 2023 the total
value of the US Car and Auto
manufacturing Market is an ipping
104
billion this issue of luckbox looks at
what’s ahead for the Auto industry and
who are the winners and the losers EVS
have hit a speed bump the last 6 months
dealing with slowing demand more
competition and lagging infrastructure
what lies ahead we also take a look at
two EV Titans battling for Supremacy in
Asia Tesla versus byd and US versus
China on the American side of things
baby you can drive my car we also take a
look at GM versus Ford plus we look at
why hybrids are so hot and is there a
play to be made in lithium the massive
Rare Earth deposit is the key to
powering Vehicles will lawyers and
lizards stand in the way of mining I’m
sorry what now we also show you the 12
hottest new cars of
20204 I hope they’re bringing back the
El Camino business in the front party in
the back and and I went to the Chicago
Auto Show and I want to know why there
were Adventure Vehicles everywhere when
people are only driving to Starbucks and
AM radio is back and more relevant than
ever finally for all you investors we
have 50 Auto sector trade ideas but hey
don’t take my word for it do you want
the best in life money and probabilities
get your motor running and go to get
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[Music]
live.com
don’t die like
[Music]
s well he’s more public in his mentality
I’m a Believer I believe that the world
is good and I know that the world is not
good the questioning yourself and and
questioning yourself in dialogue with
someone you respect is both Pleasant and
sometimes extremely insightful and
useful
[Music]
sometimes here’s what your buddies mean
when they say to catch a falling knife
ever seen a stop make a huge move lower
and maybe you had the thought I’m going
to buy that stock but then it just keeps
going down that’s a falling knife a
falling knife is a stock that makes a
big move lower and then continues to
move lower the contrarian Trader has the
idea to go long that stock in the hopes
for a bounce catching that falling knife
but you got to be careful trying to
catch those falling knives
[Music]
good morning everyone and welcome back
to the show this is option trading
Concepts live my name is Nick ba I got
my man Mikey Butler and of course Thomas
westwater in the house with me today for
westwater Wednesday and if you want to
come join us hop over to YouTube Type in
tasty Live come to our Channel give us a
like And subscribe to our videos because
that helps us immensely but more
importantly just come chat with us live
CU we’ll be taking questions through
throughout the show whatever you got
questions on from strategies Concepts
trade ideas trade management whatever
just come hang with us for the next hour
of the day my favorite hour of the day
because I can spend it with my buddies
Mike and Thomas Thomas how are you sir
I’m doing good you know I was off last
week I was missing you guys but um you
know everything is going swell we missed
you too we did miss you thank you thank
you um I would like to report
that the corn trade soybeans trade and
weat trade all winners and I had an iron
condor in oil after I don’t know if it
was last week or two weeks ago when you
did you gave us yeah so we you are
officially the Oculus yeah intimately
known as the Oculus love it love it see
all I mean to be completely honest I
might have to switch you with him
because
he who if if you will review my follow
Trader account from yesterday Tesla that
was a good trade yeah I saw that on
Twitter yeah yeah so I actually I did
not even check the news check Twitter or
anything at all while I was gone I came
back so I’m still catching up full
disconnect you know reconnected with uh
Mother Earth and everything so that’s
awesome love it that’s awesome love to
see it yeah well you missed some
volatility so maybe maybe you’re the guy
that because we always joke that like
when Mike
leaves usually it’s something breaks
like internally like my my support inbox
will break or my computer will break or
something like yeah when he’s gone
specifically um something goes wrong I
know that we talk about when Tom’s fly
Tom Tom sof when he’s flying we usually
get some volatility a little bit of
downside because he usually you know
wait he’s always short and then when you
know it actually happens he’s like
flying and can’t do anything about it so
maybe you’re the the indicator for some
popping volatility all right well I’m
taking the last week of May off as well
so we’ll have to test this Theory okay
mark your calendars people
yeah um yeah love to see it the The Boys
Are Back in
Town and we’ve got a continuation of
some fireworks earnings announcements uh
meta after the close today down 11
selling it’s down 25 points from the
opening print that’s a big move they
just didn’t they put the kabash on the
Tik Tok
stuff yeah they dided it along with like
the Ukraine package and stuff yeah SL
that one in there I think that starts
the clock for them to divest okay that’s
something yeah we shall see what happens
there um what else we got Microsoft to
today tomorrow after the close that’s
tomorrow yeah Thomas Jordan earnings
preview on the news and insights tab
there Google tomorrow Amazon on on the
30th that’s next week yeah or is that
yeah next week yeah so I’m going to pin
the news and insights tab at the top of
the YouTube chat so you can get all of
your earnings previews there The Meta
one I just finished writing so that
that’ll be released in the next couple
hours here ahead of the announcement
butth yeah after the close today meta
reports big expected move relative to
the stock price almost 10% that’s a big
number um especially when you look at
the weekly relative to December 120
points for December 40 points for the
week it’s a big ratio yeah so we will
see apple the only stock green in a sea
of red seems it seems I know we’re gonna
get bailed out Mikey you think so yeah
the stars are aligning for a nice little
apple rally after Tesla was the same
thing too yeah all bad news sentiment
yeah not good very bad stock moons yeah
y ah what a world we live in look at
this Market though e min’s down 19 we’re
at the low of the day NASDAQ down 12 you
got the Dow down 150 and the Russell
down 19 the Russell just getting killed
today uh oil selling off a bit forc down
54 cents
8282 volatility picking up a tiny bit
for VX
1595 you got bonds down almost a full
point here gold down six bucks silver
down 12 cents and then Bitcoin down uh
spots down
2200 uh Futures are down 1,800 this is
little turnaround
Wednesday yeah weird day yeah weird day
and especially ahead of meta earnings
kind of ominous yeah when meta was up 15
to open what’s Nvidia doing type that
they were up 20 yeah they’re
they’re down down 17 wow full reversal
in a lot of these stocks yeah what’s
going on here I don’t know I might have
top ticked it in the Johnny trades who
knows you just never know uh have you
done any trades today Mikey yes you
closed out of your Tesla it’s a nice
that’s a big boy winner it’s a good one
it’s a good one that’s a home run that’s
about as good as it gets steak dinner
that’s that’s a this is a Ste dinner for
three this is a station this is like
steak dinner for three yeah yeah there
you go Mike um yeah that was a that was
a really good one I mean the expected
move was 13 points it was up like 20 MH
on the open and um you know we had the
the positive gamma in our favor we had
the short premium kind of the short
option was a loser by itself but it
still reduced the cost basis and that’s
why this that was such a nice one would
you have the 160 in the weekly yeah the
160 150 yeah just to put some context
into it
a60 it cost you 80 cents right as of
this moment right it was probably a
little higher when you closed it yeah
but you know for everybody else if you
held it it’s right at the money it
didn’t hurt you yep because of how high
volatility is how how little time there
is left so and Visa Visa I played it to
the downside stock mAh
downside Visa opened up like eight
points and it’s selling off with the
rest of the market so we might double Jo
this here Y is the position I have is
only down 30 cents now it was down like
180 bucks or something there ler
beautiful um I did a number of things
this morning for my Johnny trades there
I’ll put some comments in there I’ve
been a little busy meta I did a little
iron Condor here uh with the stock at
503 so it sold off a little bit there
I’ll be leaning a little tiny bit long
with this move close out of Boeing I a
put spread there took a couple bucks out
of that did a wide butterfly and SPX uh
so that one should be good right now at
the 5,000 strike for uh May 31st which
is my birthday I told that to Tom just
to try and get you know a present ready
you know so he can get something ready
for me got some short Delta in Qualcomm
rolled my Visa put I did a similar thing
to what Mikey did uh Tesla I got bailed
out on an upside crab trade I closed
that one out I actually just put on a
new position in Tesla as well I turned
my um Tesla Tesla crab trade into a
calendar trade and my Johnny Trader
account in apple I turned that one into
a calendar spread into this up move and
then took off some risk in coinbase by
buying in the risk on my but broken wi
butterfly that I had on the upside so
I’ve been active today uh it’s been a a
good little morning good little morning
for the
Johnnies love to see it yes love to see
it
um yeah there’s my Tesla my new
Tesla Tesla Tesla Read All About It um
yeah we’ve got uh some nice slides for
you today if you want to join us on the
YouTube channel we’re streaming live
there just pop over to Tasty live you’ll
see this video front and center you can
pop in your trade ideas questions along
the right hand side chat uh and we’ll
get to them shortly but first Japanese
Yen something that I’ve been keeping an
eyee on
uh one of our co-workers is in Japan
right now going to Japan later this year
and the Yen cannot buy a bid oh which
means and shun just ended Shogun just
ended great show great show I hated that
ending amazing show but we got Fallout
now Fallout is great I love fallout
Fallout three body problem I mean these
shows just keep rolling in yeah we got
to do the there’s one uh there’s a
Netflix one the baby reindeer something
baby something like thater haven
heard baby deer I don’t know everybody’s
been talking about this one it’s a wild
one so on next on the list yeah but yeah
Japanese Yen uh
just I don’t even know what to say about
it it’s just it’s red day after red day
yeah the green days are not uh big at
all it’s kind of wild to AR n yeah but
does that mean intervention is looming
we shall see yeah it has to be I think I
mean okay kind of my trade idea today so
just go over a quick uh intervention
history now um there’s plenty of
interventions that have happened between
these purple lines I’ve outlined some of
the kind you know the key points turning
points for um you know these Yen swings
here so 1991 uh you know we had um Japan
sells dollars buys yens uh so this is
USD JPY the chart right here so when
when the line is high around 160 right
there at the beginning that means the
dollar is strong versus the Yen um as we
are now if you look at you know the most
current date we’re now at you know a
three decade uh 90 yeah three decade
high right here 30 years 30 or so years
um so we’re coming up to this point
where you know um we’re going back to
1991 um where Japan the Ministry of
Finance started buying all these yens
then uh we saw currency drive down now
I’m going to go over Speculator data you
know uh shorts Longs in the next slide
but the cftc data doesn’t uh go back um
that far so we can’t see where um
positioning was all the way back in 1989
1991 uh things like that but then again
we have the 1990 Asian financial crisis
again the end was very weak uh boj moof
stepped into by Yen sell dollars um go
up to n or 2004 15 month intervention
period uh that was to curb Yen strength
uh so when the Ministry of Finance when
Japan stepped in it’s mostly been to
defend against a weak Yen uh when the
Yen gets extremely strong it’s usually
um you know it’s it’s a much more rare
but there’s International pressure to uh
get that Yen um the Yen strength to uh
kind of weaken there so why when um why
is that is it I think it poses a risk to
the world economy Imports exports um
things like that the whole carry trade
that a lot of Traders do um the carry
trade is very big right now that’s a
reason why the yen is so weak um so when
you’re taking out a loan in JPY you’re
using that money to put it in a higher
interest currency a lot of people are
going into the Australian dollar right
now uh it’s a good one especially with
the sticky sticky inflation they have
there um and it just kind of causes when
these um these big currencies the dollar
the yen the British pound when they get
to these extreme um levels it kind of
you know it causes a lot of risk a lot
of Financial Risk um companies um
countries their balance sheets they have
a hard time forecasting accounting uh
for these extreme swings um I’m sure
there’s more to it as well not an expert
in that area per se um but in any case
we go to um today the latest official
intervention was um 20
21 um or
2022 October 21st to October 24th the
boj bought Yen sold dollars and we saw
that that kind of had a after effect it
knocked the end um strengthened the end
there knocked the dollar down a bit but
then we continue to climb higher and the
reason that’s been is because you know
um these Fed rate cut bets have been
pushed back and at the same time a lot
of Traders going into this year thought
that the boj was going to be a lot more
aggressive
in um getting rid of their Ultra loose
monetary policy setting now they did you
know bump rates out of neutral with the
25 basis point uh hike they did things
like they ended your yield curve control
although they’re still buying certain
bonds um more so on the long end but now
um they’re pretty much stuck in a
stalemate they’re saying they’re not
going to uh raise anymore for quite a
while and of course at the same time the
Fed rate bets have been pulling back
that’s put the yield spread which uh
plays a big part in currencies between
the US yields and the Japanese yields
it’s driven it higher the spread between
the US 10e and the Japanese 10e right
now is sitting at 3.75 eight% um and the
Yen you know at those 30-year highs now
it’s interesting to note when the Yen
back in um November
2023 the Yen was trading around
151 and the yield premium was actually
higher than it is today today uh so
there’s some disconnect now and I think
that’s you know we have to account it’s
not only be being driven by that yield
spread but we’re also getting uh
monetary policy expectations so this
Friday’s PC report could uh could
definitely play a part in this big Yen
swing um but what you want to see is all
these shorts get pushed out and that’s
what the next slide is going to show uh
so there could be a potential pain trade
ahead this is the biggest short on
record for the
EV and uh let’s you’re speaking my
language take a look at
this all right so here we go oh yeah
this is the net positioning so if you
take Longs subtract shorts out of it uh
shorts at record levels this is the
highest ever recorded for shorts um so a
lot of people believing you know chef’s
kiss yes yes so you know that poses the
potential for a short squeeze uh all
people rushing to get their trades out
at one time um and that’s called a pain
trade people are getting stuck they’re
in painful positions everyone’s rushing
for the exit door um so this kind of
plays into the risk reward when you’re
looking at the trade um now I think you
know doing something like selling a put
spread is probably best taking a defined
risk approach um giving yourself a
little breathing room with that short
strike is probably the best way to do
this because just because we’re at
levels that have previously been
intervened because we’re approaching
these 30e highs or lows it doesn’t
necessarily mean that theof is going to
step in immediately um they don’t want
the market to be able to
choreograph what they do and what you
know a lot of Traders expect is when the
Yen dollar currency pair got at 155 they
said maybe the boj it’s a round number
it’s 155 maybe they’ll step in now
doesn’t look like they have usdj Y is
trading 155 .124 so we’re above that
Mark yet they do nothing uh now
interventions in the past a lot of
people say a lot of things happen on
Friday the pce data also comes out on
Friday um it’ll be nighttime there in
Japan but you know the last time in
October I believe they intervened around
midnight in Japan it was earlier in the
day here when markets were closing so
what I’m kind of thinking is we’ll get
this Friday intervention Maybe
um you know but I’m guessing the
Japanese policy makers also want to see
the PC pce data for the us on Friday
because if that drives the dollar
strength higher if it drives US Treasury
yields higher um you know that’s going
to put more pain on the Yen yeah and is
that the point where they’re going to
want to say all right let’s start buying
Yen selling dollars and kind of send a
warning shot to all these
shorts is you know if the yield spread
keeps increasing the US yield premium
and they don’t do anything are shorts
going to get more emboldened are they
going to start shorting it more and you
know at that point theof is going to
have to spend even more money defending
this currency so my my take on this
trade is kind of set up for a Friday
intervention depending on this pce data
if the pce data is hot and I believe it
heightens the risk of
intervention um but you know it’s it’s
an unknown we don’t know what they’re
going to do which brings me into the
defined risk uh play here selling a
short put spread um something like that
giving yourself a little breathing room
maybe the short strike at
645 64 something like that I think it’s
got you know you got the IV rank at 69
point sticks um some decent premium in
there for a low priced option
yeah I I like the story um would you go
would you look at like the shorter
duration like this nday expiration or
are you more looking at like further out
in time to just well you either do the 9
day or the 44 day I mean it’s kind of I
your pick I have an in the money put
spread in the nday so if we do get an
intervention and we do get a rally in
the end I I’ll definitely make some
money back on that spread which would be
great so I’m going to lean towards going
to the 44 day do you have a position on
I do now you made one while we I didn’t
hear the I know my ding is muted but I
sold you’ve loading yes I’ve loing uh
the 44 day uh cycle I sold the 65 and
bought the 64 you did it right at the
money did it right at the money and I
got in at uh
420 and that translates to 525 bucks so
I have 525 bucks of Max profit I think
like 700 uh in change of Max loss but 44
days out so if there is a nice rally
here
on Friday maybe 100 bucks 150 bucks Max
I would say but I would just take it off
if we got that all right I I did one
strike out of the money from where you
did it there you go I like it yeah to
find risk 44 days out the real time risk
for this week in regards to what you’re
referring to is probably 250 bucks just
because even if the spread goes
completely in the money it’s not going
to trade for Max loss and uh I collected
just under half the width and and you
know you could email the
boj you know encourage them a little bit
if enough of us do it
yes um squeeze those shorts yeah please
but yeah you mentioned the uh interest
rates here and I looked at the
June Target rate probability and the
July and June is at an 80% that we don’t
cut and July is a 55% that we don’t cut
so this is turning into an interesting
little year
here after they said we’re gonna cut 600
million times I don’t know why I keep
landing on that number 600 million I
think I used it yesterday too but they
wanted to cut what seven or eight times
this year and now it’s
probably yeah yeah wild yeah that is
interesting the uh probabilities keep
going you know down for a cut um the PC
data this Friday I’m not seeing good
things on people who are you know have
usually been on the money with this PC
reporting um core PC price index which
is what the FED looks at forecast
2.6% um it was 2.8% in um February
so if we go over that I think I think
it’s risk off there’s a 50 point
expected move in SPX from now until
Friday which is pretty high yeah well
it’s probably you’ve got all those
earnings that are coming up this week
plus you have the PC end of the week so
you certainly do have a little bit of of
extra juice baked in but volatility
Futures themselves it I this was I was
not expecting the Swift of AOL Crush
like typically when you get to you know
around 20 at some point you get a little
bit of stickiness in volatility like
volatility doesn’t usually come from 20
back down to 15 in two trading days and
that’s kind of what it’s it’s been like
here
yeah yeah V has been the Forgotten yeah
forgotten
thing we’re we’re used to like you said
get to 20 maybe it pop to 30 maybe go to
35 and then you come back down to 20 and
then you come back down to 15 but it
takes time yeah not two days where it’s
just like oh you know what just kidding
yes never mind yes back down to lows yes
it’s usually not that quick
but what do you guys think about the
rise of ETF investing causing you know
the LW involatility
I
mean I think it’s a good story I it’s
definitely there is there are passive
flows that you know are just static buys
right I mean you you have that naturally
via 401ks and retirements and just
natural buying and and all that stuff is
so much more accessible
so I think that does play into it um
also the rotation of products like the
fact that Nvidia and AMD have come off
their highs pretty aggressively is kind
of offset by your Tesla cenor rally your
Google’s going their recent low to a new
alltime high like it just helps keep it
afloat the market in general if you’re
talking about the NASDAQ specifically
and that is low that creates low
volatility yeah so many theories out
there on it it’s zero Day stuff I mean
there’s you can pin it on so many so
many different things what’s surprising
to me was the uh the Iran scenario where
remember the the market was like was
down like 70 points yeah more were down
yeah 70 80 90 points Bitcoin is down
like five grand and I was like I was
just looking at it at night and then the
next morning I looked at the platform
and I was like we were up five I was
like uh are you is this am I is this
broken like yeah because that usually
you’ll
see craziness in two but it was just
like as if it never happened yeah very
weird I think I think markets move at
least in my own opinion they move much
quicker like like the the air is taken
out of it like there’s no uncertainty
anymore it literally happens overnight
where you know everything is digested I
feel like that wasn’t the case even like
recent recently like five or six years
ago where there was like still some
uncertainty it feels like everything
moves so quick now yeah but the last
like honestly the last big uncertainty
event was when the entire world was shut
down side like when you think about that
it’s kind of insane yeah that that is
what that was what was required to
create a 40 Point sell off in the
market need another
virus no please no more please more I
need human interaction here you go um
well the the Vick’s Futures curve uh
it’s looking like October it’s getting
up to 21 for the October contract that’s
because of the election but yeah
election should should create some yeah
some volatility
yeah but yeah great stuff so we’re both
long
6j I’m in the 44 day cycle you’re in the
44 day cycle and you have the nday
little shot trade MH um but yeah defined
risk short putut spread post it to the
follow page shortly here and we’ll see
what
happens beautiful good stuff good stuff
um popping over to the YouTube chat now
I see some people mentioning the cornman
being back what are what’s your view on
some of the um the AGS I know Katie put
us in a soybean trade last week that we
took off for some profits do you have
any um are is anything popping out at
you with any of these uh with the grains
yeah uh not too much you know it’s um
there’s still a lot of over Supply in
the market last time I checked
um crop progress you know it’s dependent
on weather week to week um really I’m
really still catching up from yesterday
being out a week ah I’m sorry maybe I’ll
get i’ll get back on a grain trade I was
going to say they’ve had a nice little
bounce you’ve been talking about kind of
all of these at lows they’ve all kind of
had a nice bounce I’m wondering if it’s
like now kind of taking the other side
or maybe like more neutral Delta but I
don’t want to push you yeah I mean if
you if you remember last year we had a
really bad start to the planning season
in the like June May and we had some
nice nice upside and corn soybeans
things like that um a lot of that’s
dependent on
elino okay um from what I understand it
creates dry conditions in the midwest
the whole Corn Belt but elino is
weakening now which I guess is good so
um like the longer term crop forecasts
are kind of
improving but yeah I’ll get back to you
on that very
good uh
Colin no longer needs to sell his
kidneys after Tesla’s rally there you go
love to see that uh and stock Messiah
trading the opposite of the move today
thinking we’re going to retreat back to
140 in Tesla I just got I just added a
little bit more long Delta here I took
off one that I got bailed out on and put
a new one on closer at the money but I
don’t
know 1501 140 spread for 35 C YOLO this
week there you go why not 35 cents I
mean the options are like they’re cheap
so yeah you could do that no with no
harm in that I mean other than the 30
yeah
cents um
let’s
see let’s see let’s see Amazon
earnings expected move too
wide so you think it’s going to be an
inside move trade idea sell next week’s
165 190 strangle and buy the following
week’s 160 195
strangle
so not my my cup of tea
I have I have some long Delta already
so yeah so this trade is kind of just a
staggered iron Condor yeah it’s an iron
Condor
yeah Sian Condor you’re collect you’re
still collecting a credit here because
of the premium uh inflation in the short
options but it’s an iron Condor it has a
little bit more juice in terms of IV
exposure in the nday compared to the 16
day that’s pretty much it uh so
basically that translates to if you have
an inside move uh you could see a little
bit of a profit there and if you get a
move to your strikes you you might see a
uh kind of a flattened p&l you might not
see the that full loss there because
your shorts will lose value your Longs
will still maintain value so it’s kind
of a it’ll it’ll act like an iron Condor
at the end of the day yes nothing wrong
with it though I don’t I don’t mind
it just make sure realize that once
those shorts uh the shorts expire before
the long so you’re going to have
Dynamics uh and you’re going to get V
coming out yeah of the Longs of the
Longs so it’s going to be you know you
want to be at one of your strikes I
would rather just do an iron Condor to
be completely honest but it’s up to you
it’s a cheape 90
Cent uh yesterday’s shop anatomy of a
trade when it was inverted the trade was
loss of
potential probability or potential
profitability why was it all this
management is only possible in high
stocks yeah so the the the probability
obviously of profiting was Zero at that
point because I had collected I forget
the exact numbers but I was probably
like $10 inverted and I had only
collected let’s call it $8 of credit
throughout all the roles so within the
that cycle like at just looking at that
current position with what what I had
done prior I wasn’t going to be able to
to bail out of that position for a
profit in that expiration so as I
continued to roll I started collecting
more premium took off some of the
inversion took off some of the intrinsic
value and the combination of all that
allowed me to get to a point where I
could exit for a potential profit or a
very small loss so I was just trying to
note that at that point in time the
trade was like a five or six month
uh trade with all my roles and whatnot
at like month two or three it wasn’t
possible for me to get to get any price
on shop that would let allow me to exit
that trade for a profit I had to
continue to roll that to collect
extrinsic value to get to that point
sometime in the future so that’s what I
was trying to
convey like it yeah because we get that
question all the time like stock you
know blows through one of the strikes on
earnings and you’re looking to roll up
and somebody will say well if I roll up
to this put I won’t be able to profit on
this position like a lock in a loss and
yes you will lock in a loss in that
expiration but if you’re able to stay in
that position and continue to roll you
can collect enough premium to offset
that locked in loss and exit at some
point in the future for a profit or
smaller loss
uh mits does not trust the up moving
Tesla diagonal put spread 145
150 you did it earlier this morning that
was probably a good trade yeah yeah I uh
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some more
two-sided action here MH I mean it’s
sold off pretty hard from the highs it’s
it saw
today um but glad we got that bounce
worked for worked for us here uh sold a
strangle in algn today for earnings 270
put 340 call just got to be careful with
this one I mean I’m off the strangles
for earnings
bus um this is a juicy one it’s a juicy
one if you’re in the two
days, but if you look at a chart of this
product it dropped 100 points in
November when it released earnings I
assume uh it ripped up 70 points in
couple months later so this thing moves
yeah you’re getting and you’re getting
paid to take that risk you just got to
be able to withstand that
risk uh anything in F zebra perhaps well
God you’re are you still long shares
yeah I have 100 shares of
Ford and I’ve had those for like they
they must have did they do
a a special dividend or something I’m
trying to look for the NS so it looks
like there was something in here oh I
have f two I what did oh no I have F
okay let’s see why are these strikes
like this I’m guessing it has to be a
special dividend of some sort in
January or June what do you looking at
June May they have these 1182 yeah so I
got uh I sold a 21 put for a dollar on
February 3rd
2022 and I have I’ve had the shares ever
since so I’m
long I’m long I I mean come on but yes a
zebra in here you’ve been collecting
dividends you’re a dividend investor
yeah love it what the hell happened to
you I just I’m getting that dividend
pump every quarter
nice yeah you’re only missing out on a
extra percent versus uh the risk-free
rates so that’s know you’re only losing
1% on that dividend hey hey but Ford can
rally that’s the hidden thing Ford
reports today don’t they do yeah so I’ve
okay so no no let’s let’s talk about
this okay so Ford reports today yeah the
expected
move 65s yes if you got a dollar off
move would you close that position I
will close this position if we get a
dollar out move if you get a 50 Cent up
move would absolutely
not so the 50 cents so the 50 I’m I’m
just I’m just trying to Rally you up
here um we get a dollar move that will
bring us back to
14 which is the recent high and I’ll
close the position okay because I was
going to say if if you if the 50 c up
move is isn’t enough why don’t you sell
the 13 strike call for 30 cents 35
that’s 30 cents I’d rather just I’d
rather I’ve been in this trade for two
years I don’t need 30
cents But to answer this
question zebra perhaps yes I like the
zebra uh if you’re trying to get in this
it’s a $110 stock so like the stock is
so low price that we’re calls in the
money calls zebras like it’s going to be
cheap to get Delta but yeah the IV here
isn’t that crazy like to get 100 Deltas
in Ford to the upside or downside it’s
150 bucks how about you sell three of
the
13s absolutely not because what if they
say we’re we’re an AI company we’re what
they say we’re inventing flying cars and
they’re going to be on the market
two years and it goes to 20 I don’t need
two extra short calls but if we get a
dollar rally I will close my position
tomorrow
okay make me
sick I just want to let you I just want
to free you from the chains of your bags
your your ball and chain that you’ve
been carrying around for a year now it’s
like I don’t even think about it it’s
I’m fine that’s fair that’s fine yeah
but uh I’m accustomed to the misery yeah
really is he he actually loves it in
deep down he likes a masochist yes
trading masochist holding holding a 100
shares of Ford yes for two years
although I did that the bailout on mttr
was kind of funny because
mttr it’s at50 it was like it was like a
dollar stock so like I’m not closing
this I’m not closing it and then
obviously it’s still a loser yeah um but
we got this huge rally and I was like
like a buyout rumor or something it goes
from a dollar1 70 to 480 in one day and
I was like what is this and then I
looked I was like oh it’s these shares
I’ve had for two years oh man so that
that felt good good so that was that was
when you were gone I got that rally a
300% rally in a stock that I’ve had for
two years that I’ve didn’t he was short
when did you get into that uh it wasn’t
too bad of a cost basis no I know but
well you
were I I’m I forget which day wanted I
think it was like a day or two before
the massive squeeze yeah of course that
that short gold trade is a nice one
because I’ve been eyeing a short gold
trade since like the end of March
thinking it has to pull back and it just
has kept on yeah keeping on you know
April 5th you did it April 5th that’s at
2347 April 5th you almost mid you almost
top ticked it on April 5th but then you
got your face ripped off for 100 points
and
yes okay so you got bailed out on that
yes bail on that got bailed out on Mt to
a degree and then there’s something else
I’ll find it uh you’re so back oh AMD
AMD no actually no AMD sorry corn corn
corn corn had an intraday rally at the
same day and I was I was just looking at
the platform I’m like this is the
weirdest day I think I’ve ever had
you’re so back yeah I’m so happy we’re
back
baby
uh so yeah f zebra in the money options
that’s pretty much all we’re doing 30
Cent options not selling
those uh do you think Fallout you need
to have played and appreciated the video
game to appreciate the series no I don’t
think so yeah it’s it’s a new story
within the universe itself it’s not like
there’s lore like from equipment yeah
like you know the factions yeah yeah I’m
not going to spoil it but I do once
there was something happened in the show
cuz I watched the first episode and I
was like oh I’ve definitely played this
game yeah and I don’t remember playing
it it came out a while ago right like
this was like early 2000s was it not
yeah if you if you play Fallout if
you’re starting into it I would say go
with New Vegas or Fallout 4 but I don’t
think you have to watch or play the
video game to watch the show I mean
there’s a joke going around that the the
show is so good that they’re going to
make a video game out of it oh yeah
yeah
H wow there’s been a lot of these games
didn’t realize this I mean Amazon
finally nailed it because they kind of
dropped the ball with Lord of the Rings
or whatever the show called it wasn’t it
wasn’t that good I stopped watching
after like the third
episode um who trades without a ding
it’s like driving a convertible with the
roof closed yeah yeah
I I get
you
um let’s see here
let’s see let’s
see how much did 6j pop last time
there’s an
intervention back in October 2022 it was
like 15 to 20% it was a pretty good run
over like the course of two or three
weeks so they sent the warning shot they
did the intervention over like two days
it got a lot of shorts out covering in
the you know couple weeks following um22
you said yeah 2022 October it was around
uh we we’re at the Lowe’s back there
where was it oh yeah here yeah this is
our you had like a two Monon pop two or
three months right here it was like
October 21st they did the intervention
again I he goes a Friday if I’m not
mistaken so I I specifically remember
talking to either Chris or Ilia about it
it was like a Friday night and I was at
my desk um but yeah I ried like 15 20%
after that for the next few weeks
uh how would you hedge currency risk my
currency is zero and I have every
investment with you in dollars any easy
hedging strategy you would consider
Futures
options for for hedging which
currency uh the euro dollar I
assume I’m trying to see the question um
currency is
Euro yeah so if you’re in dollars
dollars are high right now so I mean
that’s that’s good for yeah I mean that
it’s good that you’re in I mean if
you’re carrying your currency I mean
like we saw this this month in the the
Mexican peso it collapsed because the
currency Mexican peso was at like
11.25 a few weeks before it happened
they cut rates by 25 basis points it’s
still a good carry currency to have your
money in to get that interest but um
it’s looking like the path the
expectations for the peso were coming
down but if you’re long dollars you’re
short everything else everything else so
if you have your money in tasty trade
and you have dollars your long dollars
which is good right now because dollars
have gone up um but you’re short
Euro synthetically just by having
dollars can we do which is which is good
because your currency that they have is
Euro so if their currency is going up
yeah so I mean if you want to had your
dollar exposure You’ just buy a
different currency yeah the one with the
least correlation to the US dollar which
I’m not sure which one that is right now
but it would be whichever Central Bank
is most opposed to the policy
path so I mean probably maybe the Yen
yeah the Yen would be yeah
so maybe get long some yen to whoever
put that out there great question that
was fun it’s good um can we do a zero
day iron Condor and
SPX I feel like it’s a little late for
that but normally we’ll do it like right
on the morning when there’s still
implied volatility now with a 15o
expected move for the rest of the day
it’s a little tough you’re pretty close
to the market
price 15 20 points in the other
direction um still collecting one/ third
the width here but that’s usually what
we do is go to the expected
move keep it small should I do one for
the end of the week if you would like
one standard
deviation let’s see if we could do
this I lean a tiny bit short or a little
bit that scares you oh man I mean you
got meta earnings Google earnings
Microsoft earnings
all right this is like for like for me
this is a week I would not do any iron
conders in the weekly all right which
means that’s means that you should the
best time to do
it here we go I’m I’ll do one for the
end of the week one standard deviation
I’m going to try and get $3 there we go
5115 is my short on the upside 4985 on
the downside
I’m in I like it um all right Larry
let’s get through some meta trade ideas
here So Meta earnings after the close we
should have a uh news and insights
article out in a little bit here um yeah
the thing that stood out to me is just
that the expected move for the weekly
cycle is really high relative to the
annual cycle of December 20th let’s say
127 points for December 40 points for
this week
uh I think there’s a lot of people that
are bullish on meta but High ex High
implied volatility in the weekly
relative to the
annual doesn’t necessarily mean bullish
or bearish it just means lots of
uncertainty uh I’m sure they’ll talk
about AI maybe they’ll talk about the
dividend will Zach be like sexy Zach or
is for real for reals yeah he lifting
he’s been lifting is he wants to do a he
wants to do a UFC fight
yeah that’d be I would watch
that um but yeah in terms of strategy
we’re dealing with a $500 stock with 40%
IV so it’s going to be really hard for
us to do anything other than a defer
trade obviously but even like even
calendar spreads are really expensive so
I kind of lean towards vertical spreads
in the May cycle cuz may you’re looking
at 57% IV the back months are the low
40s I would imagine IM that June July
August September all these like 45 42
43% are going to go to 40 or below which
means May 57% is going to go to 40 or
below as well so you’re going to get a
big V Crush in May don’t really like
selling vertical spreads in the two-day
because if you get blown out you’re done
where at least in may you have 22 days
from tomorrow to see a reversal
potentially um
Soh I kind of like a put spread here o
sorry everyone yeah like a 450 440 put
spread in May I like that I’m around
where you are I have an iron con or
butterfly you know you can do you can do
cheap stuff here if you do
butterflies like a dollar collect a120
on a 10o wide broken butterfly 10 by 20
that’s really narrow though you
shouldn’t expect like much to happen
there
so I assume Larry wants to do something
like a call zebra with a put butterfly
or a put Z or sorry diet a put crab with
a called Butterfly or
reverse so yeah Larry likes to do the
symmetrical the the symmetrical
butterflies for Hedges could you imagine
what we sound like when like if you just
like didn’t yeah if you just tuned in
and we’re like yeah butterfly crab Jade
lizard like
what
anyway oh god um but yeah getting
roasted for your Ford just so you know I
know yeah putting it I I see all the
chats the bullies are coming for your
head oh man but yeah I’m I’m thinking
like 450 440 put spread do it what’s a
trade for
four that keeps it above above where it
Skyrocket to when they announced the
dividend yeah uh 450 440 trading for 260
there you go May one3 the width of
strikes yeah just inside the expected
move go for it there you sold at 260
beauti um but yeah there is a there is a
nice differential if you’re trying to do
our traditional strategies like diagonal
spreads crab trades it’s just too
expensive yeah for us so got to stick
with where the premium will crush from
IV and see if we get the direction right
so that’s May for me
M puts on
meta sorry about the sexy Zuck thing I I
really put it out there you said it
again I’m really sorry
guys
unreal oh my god um so yeah I’m in on on
meta short putut spread or
5440 so real time risk here again Max
losses 700 bucks in change on a 10p
point w sprad we collecting 260 but
overnight if we open at
400 uh you got like 200 bucks or risk
bucks yeah yeah and if we rally same
thing with the Netflix trade that you
had yes where you were out like 200
bucks is
Y which is fine which is where I’m at
now again Netflix is down 25 points I
know I was thinking I would get back
into my upside crab trade that I closed
yesterday yeah Clos at 15 it’s now
marked at 12 it’s back down a dollar
below where I opened it yeah crazy but
uh yeah meta if it rallies probably 100
bucks 12 buck winner if it sells off
maybe a $200 loser but I’ll just hold
it uh and see if we get that reversal if
it happens and then Ford ideally they
announced flying cars goes back to 20
and we get bailed out I give you
uh
0.1% probability because it can’t be
zero it has to be something um last last
thing here Natty gas okay big day Natty
gas what do you think oh no oh oh whoa
whoa yeah I’d probably buy it if it gets
back down to 1 n somewhere around there
I’m not sure what’s causing this drop
today though um time forecaster looking
mild I guess that’s about it free Port
um they LG facility bre Port started
again yesterday after two we unexpected
outage um Asian prices are pretty high
that’s kind of tamping down on uh import
demand i’ wait for it to get back to
like 190 and then maybe buy we need a
Chicago Natty gas trading product we’d
all be rich just long to the gills oh
yeah it’s like 10 degrees outside right
now frustrated it’s going to be like 70
this weekend
yeah
yeah see you later what’s DC weather
this time of year should be good should
be good you got some golf planned I got
some golf planned yeah we’re g to do it
it’s
beautiful I think that’s it for us
thanks for tuning in if you have any
questions you can reach us on the
Twitter’s I’m at Trader Mikey B Nick’s a
Trader Nikki bat Thomas is at FX
westwater um check out his Microsoft
earnings preview we’ll have a couple
more on the news and insights tab I’ve
got that link pinned to the top of the
YouTube chat for easy access but uh yeah
stay tuned we got plenty more content
coming your way on tasty live.com as
well as the YouTube channel and we’ll
see what happens with these earnings
trades meta after the close uh we’ll be
back same time same place 11:00 a.m.
Central tomorrow peace peace
to my trusted financial adviser let me
know your thoughts on reinvesting what
very little remains of my money into
ramen noodle stock now that I’ll be
eating it for every meal until I
die best
Cynthia sometimes it feels good to get
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[Music]
[Music]
[Applause]
[Music]
we are back it is still Wednesday April
24th 2024 this is Futures Power Hour I’m
your host Chris Veo he’s Anton kulakov
Anton Tesla earnings got the NASDAQ
running higher out of the gate this
morning but we couldn’t keep the gains
bond yields higher across the curve once
again even as oil prices come back in
the dollar is resurging here the tone
has shifted over the last two hours or
so wouldn’t you say my friend yeah
interesting uh little reversal here um
can’t say I’m surprised honestly um
usually when we kind of come off
the kind of the backs of a selloff which
we you know have in the last couple days
um sometimes it takes Market sentiment
for to shift a little bit and you know
you get some gyration at the bottom
which is you know i’ still say we’re at
the bottom relatively speaking and
compared to the last couple weeks um but
I don’t know uh I’ve been liking the
two-sided action honestly it’s been very
refreshing uh I mean you know for a
long-term portfolio of course you just
like it to go straight up obviously but
from a traders’s perspective uh this
type of action I think um begets more
opportunity uh from a Traders
perspective at least for me um
especially scalping kind of you know
readjusting positions um looking where
there’s premium and stuff uh so
personally I’m not I’m not too worried
or complaining about the market Market
even though you know we did sell off a
little bit from the
open uh Anton you’re seeing the Gams are
given up in the middle of the day we
still have a lot of action ahead of us
right now not just meta earnings today
uh of course but we’re going to have the
US GDP report tomorrow there’s still
more earnings ahead of course at the end
of this week so people are feeling a
little anxious perhaps Tesla provided a
nice jolt but certainly not worth
anything hanging on to at least here for
the broader index Tesla Apple have not
been participants this year and so do we
really see them as Bell weathers right
now well Tesla’s earnings results
themselves weren’t really good it was
the promise of future production that we
may see a mass-produced lowcost vehicle
that Drew everyone in so my attention is
turning to the GDP report we meta this
afternoon the GDP tomorrow morning uh
for me the GDP report should probably
come in good and it’s not going to do
anything for people out there in my
opinion that are hoping that we’re going
to see some sign that maybe the FED has
a glimmer of hope that maybe they can
get that rate cut going in June and
there’s there’s lots of Mayes in that
sentence Anton because there’s so many
contingencies right if GDP comes in
softer okay then what about inflation
then what about the labor market do we
need to see three good months in a row
after what was three bad months in a row
does that get us back to a place where
the FED is comfortable talking about
Cuts it’s a very difficult hurdle to
think that tomorrow’s GDP report is
going to be some sort of antidote for
the market malayas that have come across
in recent days although Monday Tuesday
this week we good it’s been a down month
uh I think it a little bit more risk if
it comes in warm then we’re still where
we are if it comes in hotter then we
have a bigger problem the odds of it
coming in softer given the distribution
of data seem low the Atlanta fed GDP Now
growth tracker
2.7% consensus forecast from Wall Street
call for 2.1 to 2.4 so just looking at
it through that lens knowing that the
Atlanta F GDP has been accurate I see
that there’s some upside risk to
tomorrow’s print so bonds a little sof
here stocks feeling a little sof here uh
it makes sense High hurtles need to be
cleared and it looks increasingly likely
that we’re probably not going to clear
them yeah um you know looking at the S&P
500 uh Futures we have the volatility
reading for tomorrow which is um said
the GDP reports in the morning correct
so tomorrow 8:30 a.m. eastern 7:30
central time so tomorrow tomorrow’s
close getting a reading of 35 points in
the S&P 500 uh 18% cense that’s not big
it’s not a lot um for a binary event
compared to you know the fed or even the
CPI we’ve seen readings higher than that
oh for sure so you know for the rest of
the week we have an about a 51 Point
expected move it’s not a lot you know so
I mean despite all the stuff happening
in the markets it I can’t help to think
that the news really doesn’t matter as
much as people think it does
um just I mean you go into next week and
you’re seeing volatility in the in in
the you know below 15 you go later in
the month you’re seeing volatility creep
up to 16 but still that’s just that’s
not that’s not enough for me to say that
that’s a huge expectation that’s going
to increase as we get later into the
year
um so again you know from a technical P
or sorry from a from a a from a research
perspective um you know it’s almost like
everything that’s piling up in terms of
quote unquote Bell weathers I would
honestly fade them like I mean I in
other words I would go long um because
it doesn’t seem to me that the market
really cares despite all those things
being a risk factor already and that and
it’s known um I don’t know I mean it’s
and and here’s the thing you know Tesla
earnings you know you look at the Wall
Street Journal this morning and it’s
like big front page Tesla huge Miss in
earnings huge Miss Tesla earnings yeah
the Stock’s up 10% today I mean so you
know for uh for for somebody talking
about sentiment that’s something you
can’t really ignore that is the clearest
that is the clearest example of bad news
is good news and good news is great news
I mean I don’t know the reports of the
earnings but when there’s a headline
that says earnings suck and the stocks
up 10% to me that doesn’t really scream
that we’re in a market en enironment
that people are dumping risk even though
the S&P sold off a little bit today and
the NASDAQ well NASDAQ sold off but
still positive but you know so to to me
there isn’t really much signed for
concern as much as there is a place
where I would be looking to get a little
bit more long
perhaps just curious about your take on
Tesla it’s off 5.3% from the high that
we said intraday today is that not a
meaningful turn sure it’s up 10% still
but like you’ve given up a third of your
gain since
108 a.m eastern time yeah but it’s
that’s a pullback but so so is the Dow
and the Dow has nothing to do with Tesla
I mean of course not I mean the Dow was
you know open today at let’s see it was
38710 um you know so we’re about 100 100
points lower on the Dow but that has
nothing to do with Tesla you know the
Russell sold off that has nothing to do
with Tesla um so I mean I think it’s the
market that that kind of dragged Tesla
down with it but it’s still up
10% you know so the singularity risk in
Tesla doesn’t seem to be there because
if it was that’s the stock would be
lower by let’s say 10% and then it would
sell off to being down 15% if the rest
of the market you know took it lower to
me this is more of the market took Tesla
lower intraday not Tesla itself because
again it’s still up 10% I mean you you
know you can’t really ignore it now here
is something different that you know
here’s here is the flip side to that you
know we was want to kind of portray both
sides here um or as much as we can you
know it is still Tesla is still trading
where back on April 16th Just A Week Ago
despite it being down oh sorry despite
it being up 10% because it’s been beaten
up uh significantly this year so you
have two sides of the coin was it
overcooked and no matter what the
earnings said there was there was going
to be a pop just because it was so
overed cooked um or is this an
environment where you know bad news
still isn’t really bad news for the
market I would think it’s a mix of both
I obviously I don’t think anybody could
tell you oh it’s definitely more of a
sentiment play or it’s definitely a
contrarian play I don’t think anybody
who makes a claim like that I think you
have to take it with a huge grain of
salt um because I don’t think anybody
could actually know um but regardless
the price action is in it’s up 10% and I
think anybody who’s looking at this
Market has to understand that Tesla is a
big component of the NASDAQ it’s a big
component of the S&P and it was um a a
huge move over the last few years and
it’s up on a day where theoretically it
should be
down Anton the Tesla earnings release uh
reaction piqued my interest not just
because I was holding a underwater short
put spread which today certainly helps
save the day a little bit it’s not going
to be a winner it’s just not going to be
as big of a loser there you go Chris but
I’m I’m I’m I’m interested in the fact
that it gave us a positive reaction
despite a negative EPS surprise I talked
about this and let me explain I
mentioned this St a few times this week
when I’ve been on air but coming into
this week according to fact set
companies that had positive EPS
surprises were seeing a0 percent change
in their stock prices for the two days
before and two days after the earnings
release historically speaking companies
usually got a 1% bump in that 4day
window when they had a positive EPS
surprise over the past five years on the
other hand companies that were missing
their earnings with the negative EPS
surprise uh they were getting hit to the
tune of
6.1% historically speaking over the past
five years that four-day window two days
before two days after a negative EP EPS
release had produced a an average loss
of negative 2.3% so coming into this
week we are looking at an earning season
so far where winners were not rewarded
and losers were
punished and Tesla has a loser of an
earnings release free cash flows expect
to be positive it’s actually deeply
negative if they were to continue along
this run rate for their hemorrhaging
money the business would only be able to
stay operational for the next two and a
half
years right earnings Miss on the top
line and on the bottom line there’s
nothing good in there there’s really
nothing to like it all but you get this
announcement and Elon Musk has a really
good earnings call and the stock comes
out of the gates today so it’s trading
higher but if we can see that same type
of behavior
maybe it’s because short interest in the
stock was at a three-year High coming
into the earnings report right really
difficult to disappoint people because
everyone was already short everyone was
already disappointed in the stock so how
much worse could it get but if you can
go through meta today if you can get
through Google and
Microsoft and instead of it being good
news is not rewarded and bad news is
punished if it is bad news is not
punished and good news is handsomely
rewarded that’s a very important tell
for the state of the market and that’s
fundamentally different than what we saw
during the state of the decline in April
we’re starting to get back to a more
positive place now I’m still not
convinced technically here here Anton
that Bulls are out of the woods just yet
even though that 100% extension at
500025 was hit in the head and shoulders
pattern you look at the rally here so
far and yes while was two very nice
green days up we actually haven’t really
cleared former support turn resistance
just yet and I see the neckline at 5167
and a quarter coupled with that 2134 EMA
envelope looming right above head in
that 5150 area and if that was support
all the way up from the October swing
lows then this would be an area where I
don’t want to see it come up as
resistance so the fact that today we
tried to Rally close to it and have
turned around is a little bit of a you
know raises my eyebrow a little bit here
I really would only feel comfortable
being bullish above 5167 and granted
that’s over 200 points from the low that
we had last week but it’s because of the
technical pattern that the down TR
intram mon Still Remains that I feel
like this is still you know if you’re
trading this long you’ve got to be very
small you’ve got to be very cautious
this isn’t the as I’ve said a lot this
week this isn’t the reverse mortgage or
home and uh and get in levered Long
right sell naked puts get long out of
the money calls because this thing is
going up and there’s no way you can stop
it it’s not that kind of conviction
trade which that’s very you know tongue
and cheek I hope no one actually does
that when they’re feeling High
conviction in a trade yeah that’s never
never
trade please don’t ever do that we’re
not giving Financial advice but please
don’t ever do
that but the point is like it’s not this
isn’t the technical setup it’s not the
sentiment environment yet given how we
responded to earnings given how the
Market’s been sensitive hey if it’s a
good data release that implies stronger
growth bonds are still getting really
itchy about it very jumpy trigger
trigger happy so that’s why this window
Market saying V is high tomorrow and
then you get a little bump around FY
next week otherwise who cares it’s not
really a significant week I think this
is the most pivotal week of the year
because if you can see the sentiment
flip back with these big tech companies
where all of a sudden losers are no
longer being punished and winners
winners are starting to be rewarded and
we can get through farmy and the market
hasn’t cleared last week’s lows I think
you’re in great shape so it’s survival
right now survival is the name of the
game for the Bulls here today’s not
great but it’s it’s still very much a no
man’s land for both directional type of
Traders yeah and and I think you H it
right there it’s the there is no clear
direction to the upside or the
downside um and I say that specifically
for the Bears because I think after a
down week like last week and the week
before it’s easy to get kind of you
know convinced into thinking okay we’re
going to have a reversal or we’re going
to have a continued pullback or or
whatever you know all this bad data is
going to come hit a smack dab in the
middle of our faces and you know we’re
going to have flash crash whatever I
mean you know you you pick your analyst
or whoever’s saying but honestly I think
that one of the biggest things today
that I think should be very skeptical
for the Bears is is Tesla earnings there
is no like even from a fundamental case
that the Bears make which I’m not really
convinced of it but the case from what I
understand go something like okay well
if there’s going to be inflation or or a
risk thereof or um I mean whatever what
else is there beside inflation I mean
you can you can jump in you know after
after the fact but but if that’s the
case then you do not want to buy a
company that is expected to be depleting
its cash
reserves like Tesla or or that not is or
that’s not generating any income at all
that’s like the most inflation sensitive
stuff it should be among at least
doesn’t have doesn’t have a moat as
people say exactly you know inflation
you want to have you know at least
assets that can grow or generate cash
flow
Beyond how much you know inflation is to
preserve purchasing power if inflation’s
5% you got to have your assets generate
at least 5% so that you don’t lose
purchasing power right and in that
environment risk risk assets tend to be
sold off but Tesla is both a risk asset
and an asset that’s not generating any
cash or negative cash in this case so
how how could it possibly be going up
especially given that that’s one of the
most traded stocks in the market if all
of those inflation concerns that the
Bears have is true I think that is a
huge red flag for the Bears now I’m not
saying that that means we’re we’re
shifting tomorrow or this afternoon
we’re going you know we’re going to
Rally back to 50 you know
5150 but I don’t think that if I think
that if it happened I don’t think there
would be any surprises we had we have a
late day int late day rally that would
be very welcome in my site and I think
that there would be no surprises if that
happened because this is not a market
that is uh fundamentally bullish or
bearish at this point and I think any
any side can take the Reigns at any
point and if you’re bearish that is a
double that is a when a when you have a
market like this it is a higher risk for
the Bears than the Bulls because if you
if you have a snap back to the upside I
think it’ll be very very very
significant very very quick and
everybody caught short it’s going to be
it’s it’s just a very tough trade it’s
like going long and short it seems like
you know a binary decision but going
short is significantly riskier no matter
when you’re doing it than going long
because there’s an inherent floor to the
market and yeah Max loss right Max
profit you can only go to zero you can
only go to zero unless it’s April
2020 but right like oil goes negative
like yeah that’s there’s a m there’s if
I short a stock at 10 what’s the most I
can make 10 what’s the most I can lose
infinite because a share could go to a
thousand or 10,000 or a million right
yeah and you just have to be careful
when you’re short it’s always riskier
than being long so in this case it’s
like I don’t know it’s it’s tough to
find a short case for me Anon I want to
point something out here today I’ve been
tinkering with the moving average Cloud
here just up the Fibonacci scale from 5
to 34 five being the one week moving
average we close below it here uh on
April 12th and we don’t move back above
it on a closing basis until yesterday
yesterday intraday today we hit a low of
5,082 the 5 EMA onee moving average
right now was 582 and a half so this is
an interesting change in Behavior where
you can just see how i’ I’ve bolded the
line here every time that we kind of
touch it after April 12th that marks the
high point for the day granted it’s only
a few trading days but intraday we’re
just riding the rails of that onewe
moving average lower today we’re finding
it as support after having broken above
it yesterday this one of those little
nuggets where if you’re a bull that’s
something that’s a little bit of
encouraging sign that yes while we sold
off we found the short-term Trend
support and that’s exactly where the
rally start to pick back up again so 598
right now the S&P 500 we gapped open
higher we’re trading a little bit lower
yesterday’s close was 5,16 and a half so
you know tenth of a percent or so it’s
not really a huge day to the downside
holding here and really this week again
why I talk about survival bottoming
topping that takes time how long did it
take for the top to form the S&P or the
NASDAQ NASDAQ was what end of February
through the first week and a half of
March or April excuse me it took seven
weeks if this is a true the low not just
a swing low but this is the low we want
to hold here we want to make it through
this week where we can just stay around
where we are you don’t need to make
significant progress you just want to
deprive Bears of the oxygen and that
confidence that they have that they just
got your 10% correction we just wiped
out the year-to day gains and they
couldn’t do anything more with it and
then all of a sudden looks like oh we
just got through all these earnings and
the May FY meeting and the Iran the
Irani and Israel conflict and like all I
got was this lousy
t-shirt that couldn’t push us over
what’s really going to do it you got rid
of all the FED Cuts this year what’s
going to do it and you start to feel
dejected you say you know what maybe I
take some profit see if this thing it
can’t go lower right now maybe I can see
if I can reestablish at a higher point
so psychologically again very important
right now in es and NASDAQ a very
similar type of setup these two have not
had the kind of rebound that the Dow or
the Russell have had you see her here
today that where do we find support
again right along that onewe moving
average this
highlighted Robin blue sky blue I don’t
know what color that is line here in the
chart we were riding the rails lower
last week we poked above it today we
find support on it today the low is
17567 and a quarter the five EMA is
5,000
me 17577 so I mean literally within a
one point in the NASDAQ which is nothing
as you know Anton it hits that point and
then it
bounces seeds green shoots small bits of
technical Hope begin to emerge showing
that this is a rebound that may actually
have some Pace to it a nice little
Morning Star Candlestick pattern there
not quite but close enough in NQ andon
when I think of you I think of the
Russell though so you’re not really a
NASDAQ guy that’s more of a Jamal thing
like when I talk with Jamal it’s the qes
with you it’s
rty what are you seeing here here today
is this still an environment where you’d
feel comfortable selling puts it’s a big
reversal off of last week’s low and V is
still high 61.7
ivr yeah I mean the
Russell again there’s something um about
the Russell That’s Unique compared to
the rest of the equity indexes the
Russell tends to be kind of like cross
between NASDAQ and bonds which is a
weird thing to say but I think
technically it plays out almost every
single day and and in this case um what
I mean by that is there are multiple
days where the Russell whatever happens
at the open it tends to stay there um
regardless what the rest of the market
does so and you saw this a few times in
the last few weeks especially the you
know the market sold off russle uh sold
off as well um or rallied had worked
both ways and then the market like the
S&P to the azq Reversed later in the day
but the russle stood
steady that is a characteristic that
bonds have actually where bonds usually
make their big move at the close to the
open and then they tend to stick close
to where they open for the rest of the
trading day which is why trading bonds
Inay isn’t really a common trading
strategy because there bonds don’t move
much Inay yeah um you know so and and
interestingly the Russell has had a lot
of those days today and especially um on
a day where you know the Russell opened
lower um I’m sorry it didn’t open lower
it opened higher yeah it opened higher
this morning um on the day it opened
we’re actually trading at the same level
that we were at at 9:32 a.m. for what
it’s worth like we we opened higher
lower than we jumped up to a new high
932 yeah yeah yeah so but but you say
like we’ve got nowhere at the start of
the day we are literally right around
the same place where we were in the
first five minutes of the cash Equity
open in New York right and but but the
key is that there was a lot of two-sided
action this morning 9:32 were at the
same level but you know 9 uh you know
940 uh we were 16 points higher um and
now we’re 16 and then we basically sold
off to hit a low of let’s see
1994 and now we’re trading at 2002 which
is basically six points higher point is
we’re seeing a lot more two-sided action
the Russell intraday um and seeing these
midday rallies um is actually in my
opinion at least is very bullish for the
Russell because we don’t usually see the
we haven’t really seen the Russell um
move much after it opened especially if
it was a down day but we are seeing a
lot of um two-sided action today for me
personally um that’s it’s hard for me to
Short that it’s very difficult
especially the Russell being the index
that you can have a 30 40 50 point day
um 60 point day sometimes
and and you know and that’s basically
exclusive to the Russ you don’t have 3%
up dayss in any other index um you know
yesterday was a good example I think uh
yeser yesterday we were up at one point
I think over 40 points which over 2% at
one point yeah over 2% and that’s a lot
more common for the Russell than the
rest of the equity market so for to be
short the Russell especially when you
have the rest of the equity Market
coming off of a low and the Russell
isn’t no is no longer being sticky at
the open which means that if the rest of
the equity Market rallies you could see
the Russell pop two three% in the day
and if you’re short there is nothing you
can do about that you are just and and
and then here’s the interesting thing
over time I want to elaborate a little
bit why it’s so risk so much more risky
to be short over long periods of time
Equity markets go up and as a Trader
even though we don’t trade and hold
positions for you know years it’s still
very critical that we know that upward
drift exists because what happens when
we go short and we’re wrong we get
double whammy because we ESS
miss an up move that is eventually going
to happen anyway um I
forgot there is a statistical word for
this but it’s basically saying okay if
you know at some point the S&P is going
to go to 6,000 well then you know
there’s a th000 points of up of of an up
move at some point in time if you’re
short and you get caught in a 100 Point
rally in the
S&P then you’re basically you lost on
you lo you basically lost 100 points but
then you weren’t able to make 100 points
on the way up but that has to be
factored in because you’re trading in a
market environment that does inherently
have an upward Trend so if you lose on
the upward Trend you You’ basically
screwed yourself
twice um it’s it’s hard to explain I’ll
get the statistical I there is a word
for it but my point is in terms of risk
it’s a lot it’s a lot harder to so and
and an interesting way to think about is
on the reverse right if you were long
and the market sold off 100 points it’s
not as bad because you can eventually
you can roll the position until the
market comes back because statistically
speaking it’s going to but if you’re
short and the market goes up 100
points there’s nothing you can do you
can’t bet and roll the short position
until the market comes back to where it
was that’s that that’s a better way to
explain it and because of that you are
basically um you basically have to eat
your loss as soon as you do as soon as
you have it when you’re short but where
whereas if you’re long and you have a
selloff or some kind of reversal there
are things you could do to wait out the
loss or even have another opportunity to
buy a dip and make it all back and then
some on the up move because that’s
inherently what Equity markets do so
anyway that’s just my two cents on it um
yeah I’ll hand it back off to you now no
it it it makes a good deal of sense to
me Anton uh you know reading the T here
we talk about using technical indicators
to examine their characteristics
one of the things that drives me crazy
about DED in the wo technicians and like
well you know RSI is doing this or that
or the other thing it’s like well is
this a range bound Market or you know
who cares if RS is overbought or
oversold tell me what happens
historically when it gets overbought or
oversold tell me what happens in what
when it’s in environments like this
what’s been the defining characteristic
of that indicator during the recent
Trend so for this moving average
envelope is a 21 EMA and a 4our time
frame or a six hour time frame any sort
of important length of time not
whatsoever so don’t get wrapped up
around why I have that on this chart the
point here is that we’re using the same
EMA Cloud that we do on every single
time frame 513 5813
2134 on the way down after the CPI
reading on April 10th that EMA Cloud was
pretty clear resistance I’m on the six-
hour time frame here on ES pretty clear
resistance the entire time every time we
rallied up into it we really just
couldn’t even crack through and during
the way down you could see that were
more responsive to the shorter term
moving averages in the cloud than the
longer term ones I will point out here
that for the first time that we’ve seen
since April 10th we actually have closes
on the six- hour time frame on the other
side of that cloud and the six- hour
candle is giving us a very long lower
Wick right buyers are stepping back in
over the course of this six-h hour
window and pushing prices higher it’s
almost as if the cloud which was
resistance over the past two weeks is
starting to flip over and become support
so early still right we are off the lows
of 4964 NES we’re trading at 5104 we’re
still over 200 points to move from the
high we haven’t broken the downtrend
from the monthly highs yet here in es
although that has happened in the
Russell and it has happened EXC me it
has happened in the Dow Jones not the
Russell um so you’re starting to see
some of the puzzle pieces come back
together but I say bold trap because I
really want to see 5167 cleared out I
really want to see the neckline of this
head and shoulders pattern maybe it’s a
little bit lower even where you could
feel more confident the last swing low
that you have before we finally really
sell off and that’s closer to
5150 either way though
Anton you know if you’re bullish some
nice things to look at you start to feel
really confident once you get back
through that 5150 5167 area right now
and so if we’re there then all of a
sudden we could say Okay false break out
to the downside well that means The Head
and Shoulders pattern needs to be
nullified which means a return to the
head which gives you a 53 33 and a half
Target and then Anton if we’re at
5160 and we think that we have a 53 33
and a half Target we can get creative
for how we express that point of view
maybe that means a long at the money
call maybe that means a short put spread
with a maybe a just a simple long call
that’s out of the money kicker right try
to juice it up a little bit
more we have to think about that but
technically still wait for this Market
to come with come to you don’t get over
excited about the rebound one day at a
time right now survival mode this next
week is the name of the game for bulls
and if we get more than that then we’re
really cooking with
fire yeah I agree and I think especially
when you look at uh something
like this very slow grind higher um
without any resistance really um and
what I mean by that is you know we we
essentially in the last let me see
this pull up a minute chart here um
essentially since uh 12 45 Eastern um we
have essentially stair stepped higher
very very slowly without any resistance
to the downside Whenever there is some
25 points huh easy 25 points yeah easy
25 points you know and and and this is
one inherent thing about bullish
sentiment bull market is you would just
get these very quiet stair step moves to
the upside um that just total like 25 or
30 points in the blink of an eye and you
don’t even really realize it until it
happens um without any resistance to the
downside right when you have a bearish
market like 2022 um what you will see is
attempts to reverse higher you’ll maybe
have five points 10 points of reversal
and then 15 or points of selloff and
that’ll just continue throughout the day
or you’ll have essentially a stair step
lower day where you’re you know 45
minutes later you’re down 30 points but
you’re not seeing that and you’re seeing
it to the upside um so again this is
very it’s a very precarious case you
know if you’re bearish I would highly
highly suggest just you know just taking
a look at the positions and um
readjusting at least being very small
you know maybe a short call spread if
you want to be bearish um having that
defined risk very very tight a very
tight stoploss um because once this
reverses and there’s a clear bullish
signal to the upside where everybody’s
bullish now there’s going to be a lot of
money to be made to the upside and you
don’t want to be holding a short
position that’s just losing and then
there’s nothing you can do about it
yeah Anton I before we go over to bonds
here because we had a five-year auction
that wasn’t
great but it do really showing any sort
of negative impulse to the market I mean
look at that we’ve done since 1 pm did a
1M Bond auction scare anyone here today
or note auction rather not really can’t
say that to be the case I shared the
stats from uh this Dow Award winner uh
Wayne wh the other day about what
happens I told you on Monday I was going
through over the weekend what happens
when you have five months in a row that
are green followed by a six- month that
is
red this has happened 30 times
previously for the S&P 500 since 1950
yeah one month forward return 22 times
up eight times down 1.88% gain three
month forward return 25 times up five
times down 3.86% average gain six Monon
return 27 times up three times down
8.95% higher on average a year later 24
times up six times down 10.24%
gain so yes it was a step back in the
month of April and it certainly bucked
what had been the historical tendency of
a market to Rally after two consecutive
quarters of 10% gains uh when you have
November December January February March
all green April typically is green as
well April is the second best month of
the year for stocks over the past 20
years prior to coming into this
month all those things were a let down
but that still doesn’t mean that the
game’s over not for the Bulls
and when you look at the stats even as
you have some of these setbacks in what
has been a very strong bull
market the odds are if this is not if
this time isn’t different if this is a
roll of the dice will it be the typical
outcome you have to favor the market
going up still and so that’s why even
though there was a nice pullback here
Bears if you had your chips on Friday
night Anton I was talking to you Friday
night around midnight right I’m like oh
gotta cover got to get long right gotta
reverse this get out of your B position
it’s going to fade if you had the
opportunity at the end of last week to
get out the window may be closing and so
it was a nice pull back this is a dead
man Zone this is not a place where I
would initiate long or short quite
frankly if I wasn’t already in because
it can go either way right now you get
above 5167 you got something to play
with as as a bull you’re feeling a lot
better if you don’t bears are going to
be looking back to last week’s low real
quick 4964 is going to look juicy and if
you break 4 964 Anton then technically
speaking you have a market that looks
like it can go a lot lower
47s easily before you find any sort of a
bottom and that’s a very different
outcome than talking about a market with
a return profile of 70 90% of the time
trading higher over the next one to 12
months given what we’ve seen interesting
so patience just patience right
now I know but it’s itching Chris it’s
itching look at this the on the day
Russell’s not even down 10 points
Tesla’s back up 11% I mean you know I
don’t know I maybe maybe return to some
of those long call spreads perhaps or
you gonna wait return we’re still in
them I don’t know you told me in the
span of one in the span of 24 hours yeah
that’s what Traders do we get in and out
of positions that’s what we do but not
the market was panicking on Friday night
because of rockets being fired on the I
birthday like that’s a clear the market
was panicking that’s something that
changes it’s an exhaustion what are you
subscribe to what news is I know you
were watching Iranian television but
besides that as you’re you know where
Twitter everything is on Twitter as much
of aess poool as the websites become if
you know where to find if you have this
is what was great about having the old
verification system aside from the fact
that I was verified was when you were
look following a reporter you knew it
was that reporter it was so much easier
to get verified news now granted
information comes out quicker but the
veracity of it you know do you trust you
see this all the time now especially
with what’s happening between Ukraine
and Russia and Gaza and Israel you’re
seeing oh this bomb goes off well no
that was a bomb that went off four years
ago in a different part of the world and
people are repurposing it so it’s
difficult to figure out what’s real or
what’s not but if you have the right
sources uh then you can get information
a lot quicker than what’s being reported
through traditional Western media
channels and
I don’t think that
hurts all right it goes back to the old
movie what happened in Wall Street with
Gordon gecko right like information’s
King do you get the information first
you’re the first mover and first mover
advantages
use yeah well anyway TW I know who you
follow on Twitter but you know what if
it works you can so you can see my
follow list go go check it out I do have
a I do have feed though specifically a
list that of like War reporters in
Eastern Europe and the Middle East that
I find very useful um and you just can
translate their tweets directly on
Twitter so I don’t need to follow them
even if they don’t you know even if they
don’t speak English you can still follow
them um Anton let’s talk about this Bond
auction here uh not good not good tailed
by about four basis points uh investors
they want more
compensation this was the largest
fiveyear auction ever by the
way bit to cover ratio is 2.39 which was
lower than the past auction and I think
we’re seeing a pretty clear Trend here
in some of these auction results
recently short end debt not a problem
you kind of know where the short end of
the yield curve is going the FED might
cut they might not if they hike again do
we really think we’re going to like six%
or 7% maybe five to five at seven five
or maybe six right but you really think
we’re going to 7%
8% so demand for twos is fairly stable
when you’re going out along the curve
though over the past few weeks you’re
seeing that the weakness in the auction
results is piling up much higher yields
much bigger Tails lower bit to cover
ratios lower indirect andir
bids andon over the course of this
session the bond bounce
really hasn’t done much of anything I
want to go to ZF first just because it’s
where the fives are obviously for the
auction I’m GNA go out to one
year there we are
okay Friday night we get that rally up
we sell off we haven’t done much of
anything in in Thursday night into
Friday morning we rally up we sell off
we haven’t done much of anything the
past few days V is coming back in here
though are you still of that proposition
that you want to be long
bonds do you find this price action
compelling do you find the environment
that we’re in from a volatility
perspective
appealing what’s the play here because I
see nothing
good
oh here we are the thorn in my yearly
positions
well you know
I think
despite I put this correctly um over the
last few months I was you know vocal
about kind of extending duration kind of
taking some risk off the table from the
long position but still remaining
long
um I think that I think that I still
retain that but I think on a much
smaller uh size um and a longer duration
again extending duration does reduce
risk on a daily time frame if and if
you’re buying premium let’s say which
again ZB despite an IV rank of 24 which
is like you know low moderate um still
some of the lowest implied volatilities
on the board which is kind of crazy to
say uh just a couple weeks ago you know
24 would have been rich now 24 is
basically bottom of the barrel and in
terms of Premium I can’t help but notice
that premium is still very cheap in
bonds MH very cheap in bonds
and you know despite the fact that we’re
not seeing a directional move to the
upside I just think that if you have a
long enough Horizon maybe now it’s not
60 days maybe you go out to 90 days
interesting but you go out to 90 days or
even closer to the end of the year um
it’s just it’s very difficult for me to
say you know what I’m going to be out of
this trade completely because look at
this implied volatility of you know
13.7% and this is closer to the election
when things are expected to get more
volatile anyway
um you know if you go to the November
options or if they have November options
what’s the latest you can go out to
November 22nd right after the okay right
after the election this is I guess the
IV reading is not coming through but
let’s go to the one right before I think
October um or oh August okay well okay
fine if it’s 13.7 there and then you
have an extra August September October
November 3 months um it looks about the
same I mean from a let’s see F you get a
five and a half Point set was that eight
and a half yeah eight
8.7 um I mean I mean look that 13.5 uh
IB index for May 24th you go out three
months to August 23rd it’s now 5.58
three-point step up another three-point
step up to November you know probably an
ivy index or Ivy that’s 13 and a half to
14
maybe yeah most but but even at 15 you
know Equity Market priced
higher so it just seems
it seems too cheap to not nibble um and
listen those options by raw dollar
figures do seem expensive of course
because they’re further out but on a
daily basis your Theta is the lowest
that it is compared to any other option
that you that you buy um which means
that you won’t be paying to hold this
position
much and and the thing is is any move to
the upside will yield some profit even
if nothing happens for the next 30 or 60
days you have one month until November
where bonds have a nice bounce this
position can easily go into the
money um and to me that’s justifiable
enough to put a small position on now
again would I be looking to do as big of
a size probably not would I be looking
to you know
um should I put it would I be looking to
um you know manage it at it’s yeah there
are no bids over there but um you know
would I be looking to manage it at the
same level maybe I’d be more
conservative in my management
Target but again if it’s cheap enough I
don’t see a reason why you have to bail
on a trade especially in a market that
does indeed have more of a natural floor
than stocks
do to me that’s where I stand I I mean I
don’t really have a good answer besides
just going to the volatility and saying
it’s cheap and saying if you give
yourself enough time eventually this can
turn around but that’s sometimes how
trading is you make your best judgment I
can’t I can’t convince myself to be
short and I can’t convince myself to
stay out of them because at the end of
the day by the election time bonds will
have to move I think and if if that’s if
that’s your if that’s your
take premium’s cheap enough to justify
it so uh justify putting a position on
so uh that’s where I stand um but again
not as bullish as I was and not as
active of a position that I had that I
will give you um but in terms of getting
out completely I’m not there yet andon
you know I’ve stayed away for a little
while here I have nothing good to say
about bonds uh and certainly I have
something worse to say today when I look
at ZB technically speaking whatever’s
going on here in the 4our chart since
the start of April it’s been a pretty
clear downtrend it looked like maybe
we’re starting to round out a bit of a
bottom here a symmetrical triangle
perhaps coming into play we just went
back and hadit our lowest level since
April 17th you may say that’s not really
a lot over the past
week in one day you know going back to
April 16th the fact that the series of
higher
lows off the bottom has now been
broken doesn’t make me sit easy Anton I
don’t see it in ZN either where it’s not
looking pretty good uh again not quite
the setback just yet but when you look
at the chart here does it look like it’s
wants to
break this is really rough I know we’re
at support right now but volatility is
not high and given my own disposition
about how commodity prices are moving
and what the FED should be doing I have
I just don’t see it right now there’ll
be a point in time where I want to be a
bond bull again and that was certainly
one of my long expectations for this
year long bonds and long Yen how did
that work out not good so far eventually
I’ll get there with you Anton just right
now the technicals momentum put these
snps up nine
points that’s fine that’s okay we’re
okay with that that’s fine I’m telling
you Chris I’m telling you
I’m this is a measure twice cut one
situation right this wasn’t like it was
in October or early November where I was
like a rabbit
animal this is I my long disposition
feels very different here so we can get
the confidence back we can go back to
how confident we’re on April 1 without
200 points in the last hour that Chris
is that allowed to happen is that okay
by you
all right medals dinged here today Anton
uh we’ve been watching we’ve been
waiting we’ve been
hoping silver finally gave us a reason
to get back and long I did it yesterday
I wasn’t going to chase was waiting for
it to come back to the one month moving
average and indeed it did and it gave us
that hammer candle so I’m long silver
here there’s a multi-year breakout that
very well may just be getting started
the longer term charts as I’ve shown
many times over many weeks but we’ll do
it again assuming that people aren’t
listening every single day uh what’s to
dislike about what’s going on in silver
long term you look at a 20-year chart
you go back to the highs you have in
2011 April 2011 uh February
2021 we just broke out of
that left shoulder head right shoulder
neckline up near 30 which we just got
rejected from so opportunities to get on
on the long precious metals trade is
certainly my cup of tea we had seen V
come back in considerably at a point
yesterday ivr was below 50 whereas just
a few days ago Anton we were looking at
ivrs north of 100 so back to the one
month moving average like where we were
at the end of March I missed the
opportunity to get back in long then not
making the same mistake twice can’t fool
me more than once Mr kulakov how are you
feeling about precious medals here now
that we’ve seen a setback and a little
bit of
basing I don’t know Chris I don’t know
if you know I don’t know if I can agree
with you there I think that precious
metals may have seen their top for a
little bit um I mean if we don’t have
follow through to the upside in the next
couple days well let me say this if we
don’t have follow-through or
consolidation in other words it stays
around this level if we don’t have that
or a follow through to the upside and we
just have kind of this like slow move to
the downside I think it’s over for a
little bit
um yeah I don’t know it’s hard for me to
be I mean I know I said this on Monday
um that I was kind of agreeing with you
here I’d be looking to a place to get
long and I think I think still that’s
not necessarily uh changed all that much
you know if if there’s a small enough
position like a long call spread that
you know you put on and you’re like okay
with a a little bit of a bounce I’ll get
out maybe make my profit Target very
very small and you know we go down then
you know it’s a call spread Define my
risk fine whatever um
but but we haven’t hav really seen any
move to the upside that’s
sustained um and I know it’s only been a
couple days but I mean gold gold doesn’t
really I mean I don’t know from from
when I’ve traded gold and again it
hasn’t been a lot I’m not a professional
gold Trader but on the way up gold never
really had uh many days where it just
hung around before making another move
higher I mean maybe middle of March but
that’s it and I think that if you’re
going to be long gold you need that
follow through other wise you may just
fizzle out and especially with the
volatility high this is a trade it’s
essentially the opposite of equities
right so in equities right if you have a
move to the downside and you don’t have
continuation chances are not all the
time but chances are you’re going to
have a move higher and volatility will
come down Gold’s the same way volatility
goes higher when it goes up so if you
don’t have follow through to the upside
and volatility goes down you’re going to
have gold sell off and I think that is a
huge risk for anybody wanting to be gold
right uh be long gold right now um you
just have to you have to see a very
quick follow through um and if not I
would bail on the
trade fair enough point my friend uh
gold just like silver finding support at
its one month moving average while there
has been a little bit more damage
technically maybe we’ve exhausted the
geopolitical event
risk difficult to say that we’ve really
come off the board here uh that Iranian
General is killed on April 3rd in
Damascus we opened that day at
$231 so while we have pulled back and
maybe some of the the geopolitical event
risk since then has been taken out of
this Market where do we hit a low
yesterday
$2,346 an ounce the high for April 3D
was
$2,321 180 so I see the wash out of the
geopolitical event R from the Israel
Iran tensions that was washed out
yesterday we’re now back to where we
were effectively in this market prior to
it and what was gold doing prior to the
flare up of the tensions it was already
rallying it was already making a
multi-year breakout from what was a
let’s go to the monthly chart here it’s
already making a multi-month breakout
multi-year breakout relative to the
highs back in
2020 so as far as I’m concerned can this
be a near-term top yes would I still
want to have some long gold exposure
over time over a long period of time
like you say 60 days 90 days I have no
idea what’s gonna happen over the next
week this thing could come back in 3%
but given the longer term technicals I
think the long exposure and will be
willing to ride it out patience patience
patience is worthwhile so I’ll take my
first stab at that long side again at
the one month moving average where we’ve
previously found support in silver ever
since we started breaking out over the
past two months Anton we’re running out
of time here because it is Wednesday
which means it’s truth or skepticism day
here on tasty live we’re going to hop on
over to what’s happening in oil real
quick because we need to talk about the
uh yariz of the Japanese Yen which is
hitting a fresh yearly low here today
oil prices traded up they’re now trading
back down $82 53 a barrel we’re
continuing to hover right along that
descending trend line from the June 22
September 23 swing highs we haven’t
really made that definitive break yet
like that we saw in uh uh gold prices
we’ve erased all of the gains that were
in place going back to April 3r when the
Iran Israel conflict really starts to
heat up so maybe now we go back to doing
what we were doing beforeand which was
rallying for what it’s
worth I don’t see a really sexy trade
here right now on 22.5 ivr do I really
want to sell this call spreads against
the highs of all this low do I want to
buy out of the money puts we’re not
really breaking back under the triangle
just yet so again I’d feel a lot more
comfortable on the bullish side if we’re
above 84 and a lot more comfortable on
the bearer side of her below 80 and at
82 and a
half not interested give me more no yeah
I I don’t disagree it’s kind of a dead
trade for me right now yeah and you
could say well if you’re bearish at 80
why not get here because I could flip a
coin and tell you if it’s going to get
above 84 below 80 right now I have again
no conviction no confidence when you
look at the charts the technicals are
muddled you know it’s above the 34 and
sitting at the five but below the 21
there’s no clear momentum sun right now
so just again patience wait uh although
if you’re short the call spreads like I
know rigan is right
now the lack of follow-through that
we’ve seen to the downside even the
cooling of the geopolitical tensions
again makes you think maybe the floor is
higher here like it’s higher in Gold
we’re not seeing all that give back just
yet Anton I talked about the wi
merization of the Japanese Yen I just
saw that Zero Hedge tweet popped through
my screen as well I will say that this
is a good day for the dollar the yen is
down by 38% right now as we see here in
6j we’re going to pop on over
like this okay uh weakest the Japanese
Yen has been since 99
over 30 years I’ve been staying away
from this even though the ivr is Juicy
because quite frankly I don’t know why
the boj Ministry of Finance would
intervene at this
juncture they like to do so when they
have Tailwinds at their back like when
yields are coming down or when oil
prices are moving lower there’s a reason
why they started talking about potential
shifts in policy back in December
because in early December what was
happening oil prices were coming back in
US Treasury yields were coming off the
board so they had that tail and when
they talked the market was already
receptive to it right now you know it’s
kind of like Anton if you asked me what
I want for dinner tonight and you ask me
at 7 o’clock at night chances are I may
have already eaten but if you ask me at
4 in the afternoon I may be very excited
to have dinner with you because I’ll be
hungry then so the timing aspect of this
like when the make the ask is right and
this is not the right time for the
market right now so if I think about a
long Yen position or even trying to fade
this with an 84.4
ivr I don’t know where you find your
strikes you’re really in Uncharted
Territory here most traders that are in
the market right now were not trading in
1990 the average lifespan of a Trader at
a bank is about seven
years so this is a tough spot to just
arbitrarily say this is going to be it I
know the temptation’s there it’s there
for me too I think we need to wait and
find something technically where we see
a little bit of a bottom maybe forming
some rounding out and then we could take
a shot see oil prices get below 80 see
us yield stop moving up and then we can
take a shot but right now this thing is
a falling knife
I guess the only blessing here for the
my month of April is it’s not the Yen
that’s causing me all the pain I finally
learned to stand out of the way until we
find any sort of any sort of
Hope yeah uh Japanese looks a lot like
natural gas to me um which is which is a
good
thing it basically looks like just a
falling knife that has literally it’s
essentially a coin flip W even though
there is a strong downtrend which is
like the worst type of trade you can put
yourself in um you know at least with
crude oil if it’s a coin flip you have
essentially like you know a pretty good
idea of what your risk is with this like
I guess you can find on a Define risk
trade and just continue to nibble on the
way down and at some point you’re G to
be
right if that not say that’s not a
strategy uh that’s that’s you know but I
don’t know yeah it’s it’s been a tough
uh thing the only thing I will say about
Japanese
Yen um is that its IV rank uh is very
very high so if you want to consider
putting like a put spread below the
current price right now um or maybe like
a strangle a wide strangle that may be
an interesting play uh just because um
you know there you at least have the
potential for volatility to come down
and then you’ll get some you know profit
in that way but directionally it’s near
impossible to find a trade there for me
at least and before we wrap this up
because we do have to go I I want to
point out one thing here that I want to
kick around with Ilan overtime later so
be sure to tune in uh Canadian dollar
here took a little bit of a step back
today but it’s finding a nice little
tail I is only 40.1 so it’s not through
the roof while the Canadian dollar has
weakened uh here we’ve also seen that
the US Canada uh yield spreads have
moved in a more favorable direction for
the Canadian dollar so the fact that
we’ve seen this move off the lows and
yields are moving the way they are there
could be a little bit of a floor right
around 72 and a quarter
7225 uh we saw that swing low last week
we saw that low actually at the end of
October beginning November and so I
myself I’m looking at a put spread down
there to see if that floor holds not the
highest aier on the board but I feel
better about selling a put spread in the
the Canadian dollar that I do in the
Japanese Yen right now that’s that’s for
sure um what’s next on this calendar
tomorrow busy day big thing GDP 8:30
a.m. eastern and 7:30 A.M central time
there’s pending home sales later on in
the morning and then that seven-year
note
auction look at the fives and the tens
and of course we’ll be covering that
with Jamal on Futures Power Hour
tomorrow as we do at the end of every
one of these shows we do a brief bit of
Education go to Tasty live.com top end
or learn beginner Futures where you can
find this great coursework put together
by the fine folus on the tasty live
research team and time we click in we’re
going to go over to market products
today due to its Diversified nature many
companies representing many different
Industries the S&P 500 is one of the
most widely traded Futures contracts the
interest rate sector is actually
composed of five different Bond products
ZT ZF ZN ZB and UB for twos fives 10 30s
and Ultras you go to currencies there
are now six products available because
we have the Mexican peso Futures as well
for energies and metals there are four
products to choose from clng G ho and RB
but you can learn more about all the
different products available when you’re
trading Futures here on tasty with the
tasty trade platform that we talk about
here on tasty Liv Futures Power Hour go
to tasty.com top Banner learn beginner
futures or simply click the link here
seen on the bottom of the screen it will
take you there directly Anton this
slide’s old six products now I haven’t
updated this since the Mexican peso
Futures came online so that’s
exciting I
think maybe it’s not we’ll end the show
there
though foron kov I’ve been Chris Veo
this has been fut power see you everyone
tomorrow up next after a brief break
it’s Wednesday you know what that means
truth of skepticism snoff rigan stay
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go hello everybody we are back sorry for
the short delay I Tom snoff he’s Dylan
rigan this is truth or skepticism
heading into a solid 10 years of being
the longest running podcast in America
maybe not but close Dylan rigan truth or
skepticism are you ready I am prepared
I’m prepared yeah are you are you are
you kicking us off here today because I
I’m I’m ready to go um I am I can I can
I can do this either way well let me ask
you a question let me just ask you a
question okay fine have you ever been
restricted by a non-compete yes
currently have it i’ I’ve had two
non-competes in my entire life one when
we one we sold thersome and one when we
sold
tasty and has anybody ever invoked the
non-compete clause and used it to
prevent you from taking actions
no are you gonna ask me the same
question now um sure have you
ever been um held back by a non-compete
yes really tell me oh yeah so when I
left CNBC yeah so C the NBC contracts
all have non-competes yeah so that a TV
host can’t go from NBC to Fox or from
Fox to CBS yeah
without either six months depends on the
negotiation I’m sure okay with I would
say the shortest is six months and the
longest is a year or even a year and a
half I’m sure like for Tom broa they
probably had an 18mon cooling off period
or
something CBS right yeah
so when I left
CNBC and was hired at
MSNBC which is technically two divisions
of the same Corporation because it was
all owned by Comcast
yeah but I my contract was not with
Comcast my contract was with CNBC which
is a subsidiary
thereof and my new contract was not with
Comcast it was with MSNBC which is a
different subsidiary there
of CNBC invoked section
42-4 34741 2276
47322 on page
943 which
states that thou shalt
not broadcast for any other
entity
Enterprise
organization or affiliation
and so CNBC actually invoked the
non-compete because at that point I had
a very hot hand at fast money I was in
the sense that I had a big audience the
show was very popular the financial
crisis so the ratings were off the
charts and so CNBC deliberately invoked
and use the non-compete to force me off
the
air you know because the head of MSNBC
and the head of CNBC hated each
other and so that when the head of MSNBC
hired me
after I resigned from CNBC that was
already like a screwed up thing to do in
the sense that like you know he’s like
this guy should never work at this
organization ever again meaning the
parent company and then the guy from the
other division gives me the best job of
my life money whatever
things so then the first guy the CNBC
guy invokes section 47374 21276 473
74222 on page
943 in order to obviously prevent me
from having keep bringing the audience
from CNBC to MSNBC to pre and to prevent
the MSNBC executive from harvesting the
CNBC audience over to the MSNBC audience
even though all the money is going into
the same bank account in Philadelphia by
the way at Comcast was kind of a screwed
up thing um but I was in a non-compete
the non-compete was invoked and it was
now I think that was a probably it must
have been a six Monon you know a garden
you know kind of a thing yeah um but I
do believe if memory serves that the CEO
of MSNBC went to the CEO of Comcast
after two months or something and S of
made his best case for why this is
against Comcast interest and then they
waved section 4737 4212776 4322 on page
943 after three months instead of six
months so I feel very I feel like I have
a lot of domain expertise I guess is
what I’m getting at um
and I think they’re a good thing and I
think they’re a good thing you think
what’s a good thing non-competes I think
non-competes are a necessary way to
protect the equity of so in other words
so I would not have had a big audience
and and everybody knows my name and I
can get these big million dollar
salaries at the time and all those
things if CNBC had not spent
years sticking my beak in everybody’s
face and you know spending their giving
me producers and giving me things and
things and things and so I wouldn’t have
been in a position to command this new
fabulous you know Financial contract and
job if I had not had the investment of
the initial employer now it was stupid
in this sense because it was in
corporate invite yeah yeah I but another
okay so if Microsoft or or Google or
whoever invests all all their expertise
all their support access to their
resources that that that’s an equity
investment that makes you Tom soff the
24 more valuable than you would
otherwise be and they’re protecting
their investment because if I’m
investing all the training all the
resources mean I think about the
training they put into us at Bloomberg
when I was 22 a lot of money was spent
on paying trainers and paying I mean I’m
sure you know you you’re very familiar
with the costs of educating and training
new hires and all these things sure of
course and and so it’s a way to protect
companies protect what protect company’s
investment in training Talent so that
they don’t how are you protecting the
company’s
investment because I’m preventing young
Tom how’s that protecting the company’s
investment all you’re doing is you’re
not protecting the company that’s all
yeah I’m keeping Tom from
ripping me off no you’re not keeping Tom
from ripping you off either you’re not
protecting anything you’re not keeping
from ripping off that’s that’s total
garbage and you know it that’s not what
that is that isly exactly what that is
no it is not it’s strictly just it’s my
ball and you can’t use it and what
you’re saying is essentially that that
this is almost like it’s a penalty
Clause but you’re not protecting
anything like here there’s a reason why
we’ve never asked anybody to sign a
non-compete ever in 40 Years of running
my own business never asked anybody to
sign a noncompete you know want to know
why why because if you don’t want to be
here I don’t want you I don’t care what
the hell you do next okay okay so can I
can I address this can I speak this sure
go ahead address it because I’ve had
sort of two huge
corporate Adventures right 10 years at
Bloomberg and then 10 years at NBC ter
yeah sure I just gave you the NBC’s
culture right which is heavy I don’t
care I’m I’m not I I understand trying
make a I’m trying to make a I’m trying
to make a point here okay at Bloomberg
there were no non-competes of course
Michael Bloomberg agrees with Tom snam
yeah of course and he says you know what
if you don’t want to be here get the F
out that’s right in fact in fact at Blue
Bloomberg the whole these places where
they’re like oh two weeks notice and oh
it’s Tom’s last day and let’s have a
party no Tom quits he has 30
minutes 100% agree from the moment he
quits to get the F out of the building
one yeah two he can never work here
again you will never like you can’t come
back in five years and be like oh you
know hey no no you want to stay here you
stay here you don’t want to be here get
out right now I I did not know that
about Michael Bloomberg and we have the
same exact policy the day you tell us
like people have come into us and say
listen I’m going to give my two weeks
notice and we’re like nope you’re out
now just walk out don’t come back
exactly yeah we don’t it was it was
legendary because there was a guy who
was one of the equity co-founders like
original head of sales who was the
biggest of the big in terms of not being
Mike Bloomberg you know whatever and
everybody walked into the office one day
I don’t remember his name but he walked
in and they’re like oh where’s Tom you
know whoever like Mr Big and they’re
like yeah he quit and and you’re like
and and every’s like you mean Mike told
him who had been with him you know for 4
30 forever from day one kind of a thing
30 minutes get
out yeah we we have the exact same
policy so would you do the same would
you throw Scott out within 30 minutes if
you could oh in a heartbeat no no I mean
you know listen is my partner that’s
little different but no it’s different I
know we have we have been that way him
and I have been United on that front for
for the last you know 38 years or
whatever how over long we’ve been
together and and once you leave you can
never come back and once you um uh I
shouldn’t say there’s been a couple of
exceptions over the years and there were
a couple of exceptions at Bloomberg as
well but generally speaking once you
leave you can’t come back couple of
exceptions and then and then but when
you leave you just you’re gone walk out
right now right
and I would say there’s two competing
schools of thought which are represented
by the off Bloomberg School which is if
you’re here no one’s going to take
better care of you than I will and
you’re going to work your ass off for me
and I love you yeah and if you don’t
want to be here get out right now if you
don’t want to be here I don’t I’m not
going to I if you’re not GNA if you
think you have a better opportunity
somewhere else go there and if you don’t
want to be here go there I don’t care
I’m not I hate F but but but but okay so
but if I am the best baseball player in
the world yeah anyway I’m not going to
get into sports because it’s that
contract where it’s too crazy okay but
if I am Tom Broker or I am the head of
healthcare investment banking at Golden
Sachs and I want to take my entire
Client List and all you know hundreds of
millions of dollars in fee income from
Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley or if
I’m Tom broka or whatever whoever Lester
whoever the boss is whatever or the
anchor man is and I’m gonna go from NBC
to
ABC you don’t think a non-compete is
appropriate in those situ in some in
those types of situations EIC asset I
don’t think a non-compete is ever
appropriate
ever and and I also think that the that
non-competes are actually first of all
why does anybody want somebody working
with them that doesn’t want to work
there and but again that there’s I’m not
saying you have to work here I’m saying
you can’t take my investment in you and
go I can’t you can’t take your tasty
trade expertise over to Robin Hood and
why not sell it there why
not because tasty has taught you
everything you know about so online
brokerage so somebody taught now you’re
gonna sell it to someone else you little
bastard everybody lost everybody learned
something somewhere else and where do
you draw the line if I’m pumping gas at
Mobile I can’t I can’t go you know
across the street to sooko because I
have some certain skill that I could
stop it right when you say $5 I stop it
right in the number I mean like where
you going to draw the line I’m making a
s
maybe I am maybe I am yeah if you’re
cutting locks at Russ and Daughters I
can’t cut locks at zabars because I have
a non-compete I mean come on be you
think some somebody’s really are you
that much more special because you can
answer a telephone different or you can
code put a line of code down give me a
break but there is a spectrum between
that and no there’s not extremely no you
said you have a non-compete right now I
I the the the the you’re under a
non-compete as you speak yeah I not
because I wanted it just because it’s
the only way they do they op break their
deals you know yeah that’s what they all
that’s what everybody you think anybody
wants a non-compete you think anybody
walks in they’re like I would like a
raise I’d like I I mean sometimes you
have no I would like a non-com you ask
me what I I mean if this if the if the
if the choice is mine I don’t you know
when and it is when somebody comes work
my point is the motivation in your
instance for the non-compete is because
your scene is extremely
valuable by
them and they don’t want you to go and
do do what you do for them for someone
else yeah sure but it’s it’s probably
not
enforceable yeah it probably isn’t but
your point is even at the at the extreme
Talent level for a Tom snoff or for a
professional athlete or for the head of
invest the head of an investment banking
division or a huge you know TV host of
whatever doesn’t matter every all of
them should be Outlaw they’re all
ridiculous every single one yeah and
again your logic once again my logic is
that that nobody you know listen when
when you when you hire somebody to do
something the expectation is that
they’ll do what you hired them to do
there’s not a lifelong obligation that
you can never do it somewhere else it’s
ridiculous that’s what you do like the
the whole idea of a non-compete is okay
so so I’ll get Tom sof to sign and
non-compete so he doesn’t go somewhere
else to compete with us or to open
another business but that’s this is what
I
do so if if if I don’t want to work here
or if I don’t want to work here or you
don’t want me to work here this is what
I do I don’t have another skill set this
is my thing you know I don’t want to do
another kind of business like why should
somebody that this is their business
this is their skill set be forced to do
something else it’s ridiculous that’s
why so why do you why does anybody the
company is investing resources in Europe
like if if you don’t the P company’s
giving you large amounts of
money and devoting much more in the way
of resources than it is in giving you
money really do you think do you think
do you always think that that’s the way
it is I think that I make the company
way more money than they make me
or that they pay me so in that sense I
think that the the the scale is weighted
towards them like 50 to one so it’s I
think it’s the completely the other way
around I don’t think they would have an
argument in court and I think a lot of
people are like that I think a lot of
people that have signed non-competes
whether you make $50,000 a year or
$500,000 a year add way more value than
their 50,000 or their 500,000 and
therefore I think it’s it’s swayed the
other way and so the company gets the
non compete on top of the fact that
they’re making some multiple of what
they’re paying you listen I this is an
argument this this is and how is this
even and my other concern with this
whole situation is this is a private
commercial contract between employers
and individuals sure you no one’s
forcing you to sign yeah you are if you
want if you want the job or you want the
sale don’t take the job then don’t take
the job don’t need to take another job
like what’s the government doing getting
involved the problem the with it is that
there’s only you know of of all the
companies in the financial service
business that I know of tasty is the
only one that where we where we don’t we
don’t ask you every other one does so if
you want to be in Financial Service what
are you going to do you can’t you can’t
dictate those terms so and most meaning
that it’s not fair to you’re saying
critic calling it just a a private
contract is disingenuous yeah of course
of course and theage for the employer
and the person that’s hiring let’s say
you go let’s say you want to get a job
with JP for example you’ve got 250,000
employees they’re not going to change if
you said hey I’m not signing this
they’re going to be like he find another
job yeah I mean we got 250,000 employees
that sign so you’re basically saying
that it’s collusion so in other words
the fact that the FDC basically saying
it’s collusion it is
collusion it’s un it’s Universal and
it’s industrywide and in in many cases
it’s much bigger than industrywide and
yes and and that’s why they’re getting
rid of it there’s a good reason for
getting rid of it it’s wrong
I you know it’s obviously not wrong
because you’re assigning no value to the
investment that’s being made by the
organizations that’s right in that’s
right in these individuals because do
you know why companies hire people in
general the reason that you hire
somebody is because you are going to
make some multiple on that person that’s
the reason you hire somebody you don’t
hire like we just don’t indiscriminately
hire we hire somebody because if we pay
them X we’re going to make three times x
in revenue on that from that person okay
so you’re getting paid for it it’s not
like you’re not getting paid so you’re
training that person and you are getting
paid for it if that person decides to
leave you replace them with somebody
else of which you make three times x on
otherwise you’re not in business anymore
so the idea that you’re giving them
something no they’re not they’re giving
you
something meaning that I’m selling you
my labor at a discount to its value to
your organization by definition you are
not selling at a discount you are
selling it at fair value but the company
is able to take that fair value and turn
it into a profit Center and therefore if
you’re not there they replace you with
somebody else and they do the same exact
thing and the and the training process
is part of their cost of just doing
business it’s already built into your
salary and it’s ridiculous when they say
oh my God we took you and you’re taking
our industry secrets and all that stuff
it’s all garbage complete
garbage well not to mention I would not
to not to to take not to Advocate
anything on your side but there are
there are you don’t need to non-compete
like if I work at Google and I take a
bunch of proprietary TR intellectual
property from Google and I go over and
take it to
Microsoft a non I don’t need a
non-compete for legal recourse I can
there are laws around Trade Secrets and
intellectual property of course you
can’t steal be enforced like if I take
the design of the back end of tasty work
of course and I and I sell it to Robin
Hood of course you don’t need a non heat
to come after no no no that is that is
something completely different you’re
right you’re right but we’ve had
situations we’ve had situations where
we’ve tried to hire somebody from a
trade desk of another firm to come to
work at a trade desk of ours you know I
mean it’s like are you kidding me you’re
going to try to stop this kid from
coming over here because because because
you paid for their registration of their
licenses give me a break go sue the kid
if you want and we’ll back him you know
and I like when I love when companies
when companies tell you because this
happens to us all the time because we’ll
hire people that have non-competes you
know other companies because we don’t
believe in them and people and other
firms will you know their their Chief
legal team or their compliance offic s a
big letter big big fat or their CEO will
call up I’ve had CEOs call me up and say
hey Tom you you better not take this
person or we’re gonna come after you
guys I mean you I go Section 9443 7274
but I’m always say the same thing I go
you’re going to come after us for what I
don’t have a deal with you so you’re
going to tell me who I can can’t hire
and and they they would say well you
can’t hire this person because we have a
non-compete with them and I go you have
a non- compete with them I don’t have
anything with you and if you want to go
after them go after them and whether or
not I decide to pay their legal expense
whatever but you’re going to look like
an idiot and they never ever ever ever
go after him
ever so how do you reconcile your
advocacy for the ftc’s Govern overreach
to intervent to intervene or government
I won’t call that’s that create exhibits
Prejudice on my part how do
you I was gonna object to that counselor
but instead I apologize I I I I I self
objected um how do you reconcile your
alignment with the ftc’s intervention on
the perceived collusion regarding
non-competes with
your resist istance to the FTC
intervening in the obvious monopolies of
the giant tech
companies hold I don’t like like like
like the most obvious Monopoly I would
say I’ll take the the most the layup of
all the monopolies right because you can
debate Amazon or Google or whatever sure
but for sure the Apple App Store okay is
the close is is the purest you know the
least debatable example of a uh
Tech Monopoly where if you want to get
your app into the system the only way
you can do it is to get it into the
Apple App Store all right sure and they
and they pound you on the pricing okay
so what’s your point what’s your
question and but and so you’re and so
you’re okay with the FTC stepping in to
powder the non-competes but you don’t
recommend that the FTC step in and P
powder the the Fe structure at the App
Store what do you mean I don’t why why
would you I’m saying every time I bring
up using the f to address the tech
monopolies you’re like oh leave them be
the market no no no no no no there’s a
big difference between Tech
monopolies and certain things that they
offer I am I am a huge um I’m in huge
opposition and I was very supportive of
um what was the company that was going
after the App Store um not take two
video game company I think yeah the
video game company but not take two the
other one um Activision yeah Act
Activision right was it I don’t know if
it was it was I feel like they started
with an E it was whoever did World of
Warcraft so whoever the company was
video game company yeah the company
behind World of Warcraft anyway and sure
I was a huge supporter of them going
after apple and apple I the Apple you
know app store is ridiculous it drives
me crazy but that’s you know those
that’s apples and oranges no I am not in
favor of protecting the Apple you know I
store you call it Monopoly I just you
know what whatever it is um but I am in
favor of allowing tech companies to get
bigger to do their thing but but you say
that but it’s you know clear that Amazon
for instance has been has exerts a lot
of Leverage because of its size relative
to every other but 25 years ago Amazon
didn’t even exist so my point is that we
need disruptors in the world of techn
ology and the stuff you know we can look
at Amazon and if you take a few steps
back is the world a better place this is
what drives me crazy about the argument
you’re making is the world a much much
better place with Amazon or without
Amazon or would it be without Amazon
better better for who better for who
better for you Dylan rigan the consumer
better for you Dylan rigan the
entrepreneur the technology you know the
techn not every single thing that we do
we’re all better off for Amazon being
around couldn’t disagree more oh my God
how do you how can you even say that
because the lack of differentiation from
small stores offering unique artisanal
products from one vill okay so you’re
mad at you so you hate Walmart too and
everything else yeah okay for sure
that’s fine so you want to live in the
world where we go back to like you know
beautiful little streets with lots of
boutiques on it and you know you go
shopping for your you go shopping for
your food on a daily basis you pick up
your fresh bread and everything else and
not only that I stop at the cheese store
of course you do the bread store yeah
I’ll I’ll send you I’ll send you a list
of countries that you can move
to and cities in those countries that
that will that will support that
lifestyle you know and and even those
places in like Italy and other places
like that that have that still have they
they hate the tourists there that
support that economy how dumbass people
are yeah no I’m not buying this whole
argument don’t give me that crap no So
speaking of monopolies since it’s a sort
of recurring side theme of this podcast
and the world we live in it also appears
that I won’t say it’s a monopoly but
that there’s an increasing concentration
of the total Enterprise value of all of
the equity stock in the world that is
held in private as opposed to available
in the public markets I I don’t know if
it was The Economist there’s somebody
had a big article recently talking about
how the the relative percentage of total
Equity that is held in the hands of
private Equity as opposed to the public
Equity markets is increasing to the
point where the the actual net
percentage of all Equity that’s held
privately relative to that which is held
publicly
has um shifted in favor of private
holding
yeah that would seem to be a move move
away from the democratization of Finance
to the availability for the a average
Joe and Jane to participate in the
long-term value of equity positive drift
and appreciation in favor of the
extremely wealthy who are the only ones
who are owners of private Equity firms
increasingly whole holding a
disproportionate disproportionate
percentage of the overall Equity
appreciation in the world at the expense
of the little guys so it’s a Advantage
for the super rich over everyone else
and at the same time it Narrows the
available pool of equity in general in
the public markets making them less
Dynamic less interesting and on the
margin more fragile very interesting
argument and you’re and your argument is
that the reason that this is happening
is because of
what because public being a publicly
traded company is burdensome expensive
and a royal pain in the ass quarterly
earnings sarbanes Oxley a bajillion
dollars a year in legal fees a bajillion
dollars a year in administrative fees
who needs it and you’re right and so who
are you mad
at the
government the Govern everybody yeah
okay so
you really should I’m not mad at anybody
I just believe that the government has
made the cost of being a public company
so burdensome that it’s created a
massive so you’re not mad at the private
Equity firms and you’re not mad at the
companies in themselves right because
you can’t no no one is mad here okay
okay so here’s the problem it’s not
really the government all right the
government had The Regulators had very
Choice
after post all the abuses of you know 08
and prior to 08 so so their their their
hands were tied and that they had to do
something and you know companies
financial service companies among the
worst
offenders um you know put the economy on
the brink because they were unethical
and they should have been given the
death penalty or a version of the death
penalty they should have been put in
jail for a long time meaning the
corporate jail corporate jail the the
the financial service companies that
abused the system and put the system on
that exploited the too big to fail thing
Banks Banks Banks brokerages everybody
that exploited it lenders everybody now
in in response to that the government
had to do something so the regulator
stepped up and did what they had to do
which was put things in place to protect
the Integrity of systems we can’t blame
the government for this okay this was
not we can’t we we can most assuredly
blame the government this is this is if
you want to blame somebody you can blame
the financial service world because
can’t blame the private Equity firms
can’t blame the companies themselves
okay but the structure that we had
created which is an exchange structure
and which is a
um whatever you want to call the
financial service distribution structure
essentially you know the whole um uh the
whole the whole the whole way we bring
companies public and the whole Corporate
Finance structure that’s that the the
fee structure and the friction of going
public and operating publicly is exactly
is that the friction of the transition
from private to public is so so so
brutal the pressure on Financial Service
Company
to M to beat their earnings and the fees
that they charg these companies to go
public that we put ourselves in a
position where the financial service
companies were ripping off the
individual companies the exchanges were
ripping off these individual companies
and then ultimately the consumer got
ripped off because everything fell down
to the consumer and the companies that
should have been punished and
essentially put in corporate jail for
this were walked away because they were
supposedly too big to fail and part of
that it was systemic there was nothing
you know I’m not sure what we could do
except fix the system the world of
private Equity see private Equity needs
the public Marketplace let’s be fair
about private equity for a second
there’s no such thing private Equity
doesn’t exist without an exit right you
need an exit you can’t have private
Equity without an exit and every company
cannot be bought and sold privately just
doesn’t work that way so the only way to
get an exit is to take a company out
into the public market space and so
every private Equity Firm wants a public
response or a public event somewhere
down line three years five years seven
years nine years whatever it is they
want a public response now to me that’s
that whole thing is really fascinating
because the same group that that needs
you know the same group that needs those
public events
didn’t do enough to protect the
Integrity of those events they didn’t
really understand it now I think they do
and now I think the world has changed
now I think that there’s not something
necessarily broken except that we have
to get companies that are willing again
to go back to the public Marketplace by
reducing the fees the overhead let’s
talk about because I as you know I’m I’m
on the board of a hospitality company
that approached and I IPO on the NASDAQ
a couple of years ago backed away the co
thing was no friend of a hospital of a
travel company at the time and is
re-approaching that now a second time
albeit no longer in an American Market
but Po in a non-american market meaning
a different like a public market in
London versus New
York what became apparent to me in that
process was the obscenity of the fees
whether it was the legal fees or the
banking fees or the accounting firm fees
by the way the accounting firms out like
a bandit yeah to certify I mean it’s a
Madness just the you know I can spend
many millions of dollars just with an
accounting
firm in in a in a weekend I can spend s
million if you’re not paying
attention the reason the fees are so
high whether it’s legal accounting or
Investment
Banking is because of a
collusion between
the big accounting firms KPMG blah blah
the big law firms and the big investment
Banks okay I don’t I don’t disagree so
my point is that that’s another place
for Linda Khan in other words the the
nothing the reason so you have a
conflict of interest right where it’s in
the interest of private Equity to have
it to be cheap to go public because they
love to get the lower the fees to get
their private company public
it’s in the interest of any private
company owner to have the fees to go
public get
lower the only person who has an
incentive to charge High fees to
transition from public to private is
those who control the the doorway right
The Gatekeepers lawyers accountants and
bankers there’s a small enough number of
lawyers bankers and
accountants that they can get away with
seven and eight
figure um Fe fees service fees to
facilitate these transactions only
because of the collusion between
them other words you have would you have
the FTC step in and Target the fees
for Equity transactions from the public
private markets into the public markets
because I can tell you and I’m sure you
already know this but I’ll just remind
you that the fees to go public in New
York have to be 10 times if not more 20
times more than the fees to go public in
London for
instance
um yeah that’s probably well I don’t
know if it’s 10 times but it’s pretty
significant a lot more but the
opportunity is more it’s all based on
opportunity
cost would you have the FTC Target the
same way that they’ve now targeted real
estate brokers on their 6% vague
for the first time in the last
year I you have the government Target
the 7% IPO fee or the you know the
the the accounting and legal fees which
quickly become five And1 million I think
that the exchanges us exchanges and us
um financial service companies that
bring um that sponsor you know that do
basically that underwrite all the
corporate debt and corporate um IPOs and
stock you know listings need need um
some regulatory boundaries and I think
that’s an absolute no-brainer and I
think if you did that you would clean up
the marketplace and bring a lot more
companies
public because if companies could could
actually figure out what their cost will
be and what they will actually net out
they would be much more inclined to take
to go public than they would be to say
you know one of the reasons that people
love spaxs even though they didn’t work
um was because it was so much easier
process to take a company public you
didn’t essentially need a brokerage firm
you didn’t need a financial service firm
that’s why spaxs were so popular that’s
why so many companies came out I mean
there we needed to learn a lesson from
the entire Spa debacle the bad part
about spaxs was way too many companies
came out and went public that shouldn’t
have because they saw the opportunity
without the costs but we didn’t learn
the lesson that that’s that’s what drove
all those companies to the marketplace
we can do that easily in a regulated
Marketplace and that’s how it should be
done the spec experiment didn’t work
because there was there was um uh
because nobody anticipated the amount of
companies that were going to come out
that way but they didn’t it didn’t
require the the normal funding and the
normal kind of like pipeline to getting
Capital so it worked so I I think the
the the spa experiment was huge to show
that the demand is actually there the
system the way it exists today is
broken how would you fix it if the spack
was spack was obviously indic the desire
for a solution but it was not a it’s a
regulatory thing it’s easy hey you know
what we’re only going to we’re only
going to you you can only charge x
amount um to bring a company public you
know you can only charge x amount the
exchangers can only get so much and the
the underwriters can only get so much
you know I mean I mean I mean yeah
Goldman Sachs wouldn’t be happy but the
smaller Underwriters would be fine and
Goldman Sachs doesn’t do anyway
they don’t sit there and protect the
stock price they don’t sit there and do
anything that anybody else couldn’t
do same with morg only brings the best
companies public no they bring the they
don’t that’s all garbage they don’t
bring the best companies public they
bring the only companies that can afford
to pay them public Goldman Sachs never
ask the question what does your company
do Goldman Sachs and and Morgan Stanley
and JP Morgan they only ask here’s the
amount of money we’re going to charge
can you pay this I don’t care what you
do it’s a biggest bunch of crap ever
theyve never asked they never asked once
what do you do I don’t know I talked to
my friends at Goldman Sachs they say
they only bring the best companies
public no that is garbage they only
bring the companies they can afford to
pay them
public trust me if you could not afford
to pay golden Sachs golden Sachs is take
telling you to go jump in a lake
they’re not running a charity hey hey
I’m gonna tell you a quick story and
then we can end this segment today but
it’s one of my kind of going back in the
Wayback machine but when we were
building thinkers Sim we needed a place
to clear and we had really good
connections at bare Sterns because we
had connections from the floor so we
went to be Sterns and we said we’d love
to clear ther Sim’s business through
Bear Sterns because they were a
reputable firm
everything and they said you know what
we’d love to have your business but
it doesn’t look like you can afford to
pay us enough money to make it
worthwhile so come back to us in a
couple years when you grow
up which is to say that Bear Sterns or
any of the giant Banks could give a damn
about the business of course they want
to make sure that you have cash in the
bank to pay the number of course which
at that point I cursed them now it took
eight years for them to go out of
business but I gave them the soff curse
and
you know they went out of business the
the snoff Sicilian hex yes yeah and we
went and cleared at a firm that came to
us and said we would love your business
you’ll help us grow we’re like beautiful
let’s go did you do the same thing to
Arthur Anderson by the way was that you
no no the only other firm I ever put the
hex on well there’s a couple but uh
American Express but they’re still in
business and um uh Global Crossings
they’re out of business oh I I I person
took Global Crossings down no question
about it with a combination of the snoff
curse the Sicilian hex and a voodoo doll
yes trip all
three I’m Tom snoff he’s Dylan rigan
this is truth or skepticism we’ll see
you next Wednesday 1 pm Central Time
thank you Dylan all right see you later
Lawyers Guns and Money I was just
remembering that song as you were
talking about that the I think it’s old
watch out for Section watch out always
watch out for section 9447 3 27477 22122
on page 943 you don’t even read it until
they use it against you and then you’re
like well I didn’t sign that yes you did
Sir I like
it all right thank you all right
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SLU so Tom what is your definition of
underwater the Futures close 15 minutes
after the cash Market’s closed so
underwater means when the Futures close
under Fair Value under the cash price if
you’re selling in the hole what are you
doing oh man if you’re selling in the
hole you’re puking that means you’re
selling it at a price you don’t like but
you have to do it because it’s hurting
too bad Tom in the pit when somebody
would say it was an out trade what would
that an out trade is a mistake that
means one person thought they were doing
one thing and the other person thought
they were doing something else and so an
out trade is just another word for
mistake you can use an out trade in any
anything in life when you just have a
Mis misunderstanding that’s an outray
when Tom says double whammy what does it
mean by that o double whammy is when you
roll down calls cuz the Stock’s going
lower and then all of a sudden stock
goes higher and you start rolling up
puts you’re getting double
[Music]
whammied what’s going on welcome back to
today’s assignment today Wednesday back
in the classroom with Dr Jim Dr Jim how
are we doing today after Tesla’s
earnings last night man Tesla earnings
pretty goodle for the Tesla Bulls out
there which I happen to be uh just for
the day or so so very good day for me
from a Tesla standpoint but man bro dude
your Lakers are just your Lakers are
just not looking good dude I know you
saw the second game Dr I know you saw
game two dude you gotta get your boy
Braun to stop whining to the refs un let
this play some ball dude I know let’s I
mean let’s let’s protect a 20-point lead
I’m just saying how are you feeling now
with your Lakers down 20 even though
it’s going back to LA how are you
feeling about that my Lake my Lakers
down
20 my nuggets put in work on game two if
any team can come back from a 20-point
deficit in the second half of the game
it’s Nicole Nicole yit Jamal Murray
Michael Porter Jr Aaron Gordon everybody
so I hope everybody enjoyed the
entertainment that we got that night
buzzer beater to win the game if you
missed it almost like the same Buzz
beater to my uh Nvidia position that
expired last Friday we were 180 points
we were 180 points away from my short
strike and we made it all the way back
at the buzzer so uh I think it’s just
it’s just a Colorado thing I think is
what it is Dr Jim but I’ll take it so
what so what was your biggest so what
was your biggest takeaway from that
Nvidia trade that you had on because I
mean it took it you took it all the way
down to the final day and then it
finally came back I mean so well
seriously though what’s your biggest
takeaway having gone through that
experience um my biggest takeaway what
is my biggest takeaway uh uh be more
mindful about power of um uh Ai and
chips and just uh um no to on a serious
note um just be mindful about how
prolonged some of these hyped up sectors
can really last like even when a lot of
the marijuana stocks are running uh when
AI stocks are running when a lot of
crypto stocks are running sometimes they
can just run a lot further than you than
you can expect them to so I guess I
guess it’s just one of those things but
uh um no that thing that thing was wild
I don’t know Nvidia was one of those
ones that’s just kind of just blows your
mind how much how much it can run within
I don’t know just a few months I think
we were around $100 and we went to like
900 something um and then earnings it
tanked and then recovered and then made
a new high so it was just one of those
crazy ones but um another thing that I’m
happy with Excuse me um is if I do want
to take in trades like that with hype up
sectors just to be mindful about using
Define risk which I did because I don’t
have a a choice most of the time but um
I would say Define risk helps because
some of there were some pretty big gap
UPS overnight like 60 point gap ups and
that would be pretty nasty to catch on
an undefined risk trade but um you know
I’m happy I use Define risk and I think
I’ll leave it at that yeah no I think
that’s really really good I think those
are some really good takeaways you know
one thing that always I mean watching
you go through that and and and just
kind of thinking about what type of
strategy that was and going all the way
to the end and you know like what what
can we learn what can we learn from that
well I think everything you just said is
100% right especially when you’re
talking about these really really super
hot sectors AI like robotics like
marijuana like yes 100% another thing
though just kind of stepping away from
the sector specific stuff and just going
to like quantitatively based probability
based you know I think one thing that a
lot of people either forget or they
don’t quite realize on the front end is
when you put a trade on like it was a
short call spread right is that right
yeah it was okay so when you put that
trade on your pop was probably what
maybe 60% yeah 55 60 65 yeah whatever
right it’s a little bit better than 5050
it’s not you know it’s not a coin flip
just slightly better than that the odds
are in your favor okay that is what we
do man 49 times out of 50 I mean that’s
the game that we play selling premium
with high probabilities okay most people
inside the tasty Universe they got that
but here’s the part that I think a lot
of people either forget or don’t quite
realize those probabilities are based on
the entirety of the expiration cycle if
that’s what it comes down to now most of
the time in a situation like that it’s
not going to come back right it’s not
necessarily going to come back on that
final day but I think what a lot of
people don’t quite realize is if you
really want to play the probabilities
when you do a defin risk strategy man
size that thing correctly size that
thing appropriately so that if it comes
down to it you can hold it all the way
to the end because I’m sure there were
plenty of times with a week to go or 10
days to go when it was kind of already
pricing at Max loss you’re like man why
am I still in this trade like I should
just close it and be done with it it’s
not coming back that’s a mistake man
when and you didn’t do that so good so
kudos to you but when you’re in a trade
like that I just see this come across my
desk all the time from New Traders and
Traders trying to find their way it’s
like man hold the trade you’ve paid for
that time the probabilities that you
traded on an entry are based on the
entirety of the cycle of that’s what it
comes to and so that’s a really cool
example of that kind of coming to life
and actually proving to be beneficial no
yeah it was one of those that actually
went to a Max loss I think within 48
Hours Dr Jim and I think I had that
position on for a total of 57 days so
almost two months so I was kind of in
that position of I really had nothing
else I could do uh for like the next two
months because of how because of how
quick Nvidia moved uh relative to when I
put the position on so it was one of
those things where I was like man this
thing’s pretty much been sitting at a
Max loss past month and a half only like
I’ve been sitting in the worst position
I could in in this time and it’s like
only good could come out of this because
I’m already at the worst case scenario
uh in this position from when I put the
trade on but um diff uh which I mean
sometimes that that’s helpful because
it’s like it’s not going to get any
worse so as long as you recognize that
it’s like I’m just going to hold it and
just not worry about it yeah had so much
time value still I’m like wow literally
like it was I picked a 50 something days
contract and uh Nvidia ran that much for
it to sit in a Max loss within 48 Hours
of collecting that credit but um
differently I had the uh the Tesla out
of the money put spread that I sold and
Tesla actually started making new lows
uh Tesla had earnings last night we had
a massive rally in Tesla overnight I was
sitting at a Max loss in Tesla and I um
I had 23 days left to expiration I was
going to need to manage it this Friday
um then when I woke up this morning it
wasn’t sitting at a Max loss anymore I
was down about 35 bucks um and then I
ended up just taking it off and I just
took the $35 loss because um it was one
of those ones that helped me get out of
a Max loss so it was one of those ones
that kind of went to a small loss slash
kind of break even but was still a win
considering the context of the situation
that I was in with the Tesla position so
the earnings helped me overnight I
didn’t even want to be in the position
until earnings came but because I was in
such a bad position uh if anything the
earnings was going to help me if it
could go in my favor um so I just ended
up getting out of that one not gonna
hold that one down to the wire and I’m
gonna take the small small red slash
break even as a as a win in my book but
that’s update on the Tesla vertical
spread position that’s good stuff man
that’s real good stuff yeah yeah and
speaking of vertical spreads I know got
vertical spreads today um so we’re going
to touch on that uh we just have one
slid we have some bullet points just to
just to touch on Dr Jim if we have a few
more minutes we’re going to put a
vertical spread on because I don’t have
too many positions on right now and I
needed to deploy something I took out
the um CRM position that was a SK iron
Condor to the upside and then the Tesla
and then I put on an iron Condor and SMH
today and I need one more thing on but I
want to find something that doesn’t have
earnings I feel like I’m walk spread and
meta come on bro
come meta dude ah we’ll take a look at
it but I’m not gonna fall into peer
pressure this time I got it for I got
the trade that you need all right we’ll
check it out we’ll check it out but uh
vertical spreads uh again we talked
about this before but it’s the most
common strategy that I use because it’s
just the most conducive for me and my
portfolio size as well so vertical
spreads involve buying and selling
options of the same type on the same
underlying asset but with different
strike prices and the same expiration
date um so same expiration date
different strike prices we’re we’re
selling a call we’re selling a put and
then we’re buying an extra one a little
further out to hedge the position that
we sold so um bull spreads use call
options buying the lower strike and
selling the higher strike while bare
spreads use put options buying the
higher strike and selling the lower
strike do you have a preference on
selling call spreads versus vertical or
versus Dr Jim
um and why so for me for
example I I think I would prefer to sell
um put
spreads because uh no I think I I’m
sorry which one would I prefer to sell
when volatility
increases um um um um no I prefer to
sell P spreads yes so when the market
when the market typically reverses if
I’m trading a little directional I like
seeing that volatility get sucked out of
the contract a little more aggressively
than I’ve seen my call spreads but uh do
you have a preference Dr Jim if you were
to take into consideration
volatility yeah so um so generally
speaking when it comes to Vertical
spreads I actually prefer to sell call
spreads over over put spreads and the
reason why is because of the volatility
skew that’s in the market so normally
when you have volatility skew you have
implied volatility increasing on the way
down on the put side and decreasing on
the way up on the call side so what that
means is to slow that down just a little
bit as you move further out of the money
the implied volatility is increasing for
puts and it’s decreasing for calls just
generally speaking now of course there’s
exceptions to this rule like you know
Nidia and Teslas and I mean there’s all
kinds of situations where the skew is
not the textbook version of the skew
it’s a different type of skew that’s why
you have to look at the market to see
what the market is telling you but when
implied volatility is decreasing as you
go further out of the money on the call
side it’s going to allow you to sell
your call spreads for a pretty good
price because you end up selling a call
that’s only a little bit out of the
money and then buying a call that’s
further out of the money so you’re
selling a call with relatively High
implied volatility and you’re buying a
call with relatively low implied
volatility so you can generally get a
pretty good price on your you know
you’re getting $2 on your $5 widespread
it’s pretty easily things like that on
the put spread side it’s the opposite
right because now as you go further out
of the money you go further down in
strikes the implied volatility is
usually increasing so you end up selling
low implied volatility on your short
putut and buying High implied volatility
on your long put which kind of It kind
of you know uh suppresses the price of
that vertical it can make it a little
bit more challenging to get a good price
on a short put spread Dr Jim doesn’t
sell vertical spreads he sells naked
calls and naked puts all day left and
right just you know I I am subscribed I
am enrolled in the AOL Coleman School of
trading there we go I’m not even doing
that dude I’m scalping M and Q bro come
on dude like you’re not scalping you’re
scalping NQ and Es scaling I’m scaling
mnq scaling the no dude but I’m going in
there with five or 10 at a time dude so
I could size it correctly just like Erol
Coleman I me I was there man I bought
the course I’m enrolled in the
membership like you see my payments
coming through yeah on now that makes a
lot of sense when you put it that way Dr
but we’ll go to bullet point number
three you know it does you know it does
it does it does um no uh so vertical
vertical spreads they create price
ranges within uh Within which Traders
can expect underlying assets to stay
offering potential profit opportunities
based on Market Direction so we always
refer to Vertical spreads as directional
strategies but we do still kind of have
that neutral component to it since we
are selling it but um we would consider
that a directional a directional
strategy would you agree with that Dr
Jim oh 100% it’s absolutely a
directional strategy but the neutral
component comes into play because
whether you sell a put spread or you
sell a call spread if you’re selling it
out of the money you always leave
yourself a chance to make money if the
stock doesn’t move or even moves against
you by a little bit like you’re always
going to have that little buffer kind of
kind of worked into the strategy and
worked into the different price points
like yes if the stock moves in your
favor so you sell a call spread the
stock goes down you sell a push spr the
stock goes up then that’s going to be
easy it’s GNA be profitable you know
it’s just going to be a pretty
straightforward trade but still if the
stock doesn’t move or even goes against
you a little bit with enough time you
can still be profitable on those trades
no I hear you um that’s gonna be it
pretty much I would want I want to find
one trade let’s look at a up bro let’s
do it I know we’ll take we’ll take a
look but I don’t know if I can do it
come on dude you and I both you and I
both know no no no hold on and all week
Dr it doesn’t matter dude you and I both
know that if you put on a meta trade
right now and it goes against you you’re
just gonna scalp it back and the mq
picks tonight dude you’re just gonna get
it tonight you just won five or seven
lot of you away from just erasing
whatever meta might do so there tonight
I don’t know there’s not enough
volatility overnight in the yo it’s a
good thing in fact you won’t even do it
tonight you’ll do it after the earnings
call later on today you’ll do it in like
an hour and a half come on dude what are
what are your thoughts on the
conversation around 247 uh Market
environment oh man yeah I think yeah I
mean I think wait you don’t think you’ll
have hair after that or like or or what
what what do you what I’m hanging out to
this hair dude I’m pretty proud of this
I gota be honest at 42 almost 43 you’re
right right no of my brethren they I got
some I got some lettuce up there I gotta
be real dude I respect it I respect it
yeah got you you have to you have to
Choice yeah I have no choice yeah it’s
not it’s not your choice this is not up
for debate yeah I think that 247 trading
it’s gonna be really hard to get good
liquidity in the off hours and I just I
I know this because you know the Futures
markets are 247 essentially I mean they
take a break for like an hour or
whatever and unless you’re talking about
out like the creme de La Creme which is
going to be es of course the liquidity
in in some of the other products like
even the micros like Mees and mnq the
liquidity in some of those options are
just atrocious yeah it they’re atrocious
and so I mean I I think it’s going to be
one of those things where they can
rubber stamp it and say yeah we have 247
trading but I think we’re a long ways
away from people actually using it you
know enough around the clock to where
the liquidity is there the pricing is
good and you know I would ever be
interested in something like that no I
hear you even when it comes down to es
versus NQ it’s like Futures Market isn’t
even that volatile overnight unless
really something’s going down overnight
but that’s not even the case usually and
then at that es is a pretty thick Market
that’s kind of why I like NQ because
it’s a little bit thinner so it’s a
little bit more volatile but uh yeah I
don’t think it’d be very attractive I
mean it would be nice to be able to
adjust a position or maybe like get out
of something if you needed to over night
if you could get a fill but for active
trading for volatility I don’t know I
don’t know if it’s and I kind of like
having an off an off time in the market
you got you got to have an off time dude
I mean if we’re talking like work life
balance and stuff like that you gotta
have an off time even just so it’s not
running in the back of your mind but go
ahead yeah dude you got you got to be
able to hit the pause button for two
hours or whatever right but so I I want
to comment on the point that you just
made okay so I think so I think on the
surface what you just said it’s 100%
right right it’s like all right
something crazy’s happening now I can
access my positions I make an adjustment
I can control my risk I can do all those
things that’s all true on the surface
here’s the problem if that were to be
the case where something crazy is
happening in the market what’s going to
happen in a thin Market the spreads are
going to explode dude the spreads are
going to be so wide because the market
makers are going to know and they’re
going to be like hey there’s some crazy
stuff going on we’ve gota you know we
got to drop our bids and and raise our
offers and widen out that spread and so
if you are going to go in there to
adjust your position more than likely
it’s going to end up costing you a ton
of money in the long run and so yes in
like a really truly Black Swan
environment it might be beneficial but
that’s so rare I think net net you would
end up down for from even doing that
yeah no I hear you interesting topic you
heard that topic went around on on
social media I did yeah no I did I did
it’ll be interesting because yeah I mean
you know with like Bitcoin and all that
kind of stuff and like you know I mean I
mean Bitcoin on the weekends like what
is bitcoin like on the weekends is it
pretty pretty active I mean I don’t I
don’t even know it really depends on the
weekend you know it’s been a lot more
active just because I think there’s a
lot more talk around it but before
before it was really going on a rally I
don’t even think it was doing anything I
think it’s doing things on the weekend
now because it’s it’s just moving now I
don’t know though yeah yeah but okay um
meta So Meta earnings uh I’m not gonna
take part in this but just checking out
what these contract you are dude said
you needed a vertical spread dude come
on bro I have a vertical spread on I got
sem I put on two ver spreads today Dr
Jim that’s an
own don’t dress that up it’s two
vertical spreads Am I Wrong Dr J you’re
not wrong technically but nobody’s gonna
look at that and say oh look at those
two vertical spreads it’s a vertical
spread come on dude I go I’m just going
by the definition you’re confusing all
the new Traders out there that’s an iron
Condor for every got two vertical spre I
went long and short at the same time all
right um no let’s quickly I want to
quickly look to something look to put a
vertical spr on something Dr Jim it’s
just wa wait so you’ve got your cursor
right now on Eli Lily right
L you’re telling me so you’re telling me
hold on a second I was G make sure I get
this right okay so you’re telling me
that you’re gonna bypass meta earnings
tonight to go into Eli Lily instead with
earnings in a week I’m not going into
anything okay all right I’m not going
into anything what I was gonna say was
just I feel like I’m just saying your
Lakers better go back into LA and get a
game dude otherwise this thing is going
to be over in four dude it’s going to be
over know is all I know is we’re
repeating it’s a two Pat this year and
uh saying oh man I remember the three p
beat dude you’re taking me back dude to
the bad boys
theam I’m talking about the p no the
Pistons the Pistons from like 88 I think
it was 88 89 90 then one in 88 and then
one in 89 I think and then 1990 I was
like nine and like the threee beat dude
I remember that oh yeah like James James
Edwards and like Vinnie johnon
yeah you were nine in 1990 you’re
actually pretty young Dr Jim I was nine
in 1990 yeah you’re you’re you’re
actually you’re you’re a millennial I
think I I am I’m I’m on the front end of
the Millennials
yeah um smci yeah I mean what uh you
want to do little Donald Trump media oh
it’s up today wow that thing’s been
getting hammered lately smci what has
been going on with that I was looking at
AMD too a little bit earlier um sell a
put bread look at that we could sell a
bread we could sell it oh earnings April
30th after the but maybe I won’t even be
in this during earnings
ah come on man just go to June don’t
worry about earnings don’t be scared
away because listen dude the mq pits the
M andq pits are only a click away
they’re just a click away you’re right
it is a click away $10 wise at the
expect no not even collecting enough
here maybe 590 580 collecting 270 still
in 610 600 collecting three still
slightly under a third no you got to get
you got to get over a third you got to
get over a third go up to like
670 go to like 670 660 let’s get you
like four bucks 670 660 I might as well
go naked in meta right now I mean hey
I’m trying to help you out 670 660 I
mean that’s not look at that thing dude
look at that thing it’s
$430 57 425 you got pretty wide market
so we’ll see where you get filled but
look at your probability dude it’s still
almost 60% that’s not bad that’s not bad
but it’s not good but it’s not terrible
that’s because it’s great that’s
actually not bad at all so if we were to
sell the 670s where 670 sitting at over
here 670 670 is a little up there I mean
if I sell the 670 that’s pretty much
selling that’s pretty much selling the
low it put in like three days
ago then plus the break even like a $4
doll break even so I’m pretty much
sitting at 670 660 665 66
666 666 actually I don’t know about that
my break even is 666 we don’t have to
change that up yeah no I hear you there
I get off of that real quick I might
have yeah I think you go down to 660 650
I think 660 because I mean I still click
385 I know it’s oh yeah no that’s Sol
that’s not bad so maybe we do something
like this um I like it cool and ship it
let’s go and we’ll just we’ll just trade
the
probabilities that’s it look at you fil
right away look at you man come on now
inant you got like a special dude you
got like special connection with the
high frequency Trader guys something
like that I don’t think I’ve ever look
at that fail dude wow you’re you’re
routing that through your own exchange
or something exactly that was nice yeah
let me know if you want to hop on this
exchange but uh I’m just saying dude it
looks like it looks like it’s it’s
nuggets and four bro I think it might be
y all right just to be real did you were
you able to watch any of the game do you
just see how dominant of a team they
look though like they’re just I just saw
the highlights I just saw the highlights
I saw LeBron crying in the press
conference and I was like all right so
everything pretty normal yeah that’s
tough I mean that’s pretty that’s
classic LeBron Michael would never never
never do that so I don’t ever want to
hear this
conversation MJ he would never he would
never be whining about replays and
throwing people under the bus no my man
just won dude my man just just dropped a
hammer on you and just took your soul
and walked away with the championship
that’s what he did is crying in the
press conference like LeBron come on all
right all right anyway I’m done no
you’re right you’re right you know mean
the only reason why I’m not going for
LeBron right now is cuz LeBron’s going
against my nuggets that’s the one time
that I got to put that aside but uh no
we’ll see what we get it’s going to be
an interesting Series going be really
competitive um I think the Warriors are
done for uh it’s kind of sad how Klay
Thompson went out I don’t know if you
saw anything about his game but it’s
crazy what confidence it’s confidence is
so important in life in general I mean
especially whatever career path you take
but especially when it’s Performance
Based like that no confidence you see
you see a guy like that just just fall
off I mean confidence really can affect
everything crazy man no it’s crazy yeah
um no we’re running out of time here
today Dr Jim but that’s vertical spreads
just wanted to touch up on that we got a
couple positions on anything to add
before we head on out of here today no
man I think it was good good discussion
yeah vertical spreads and again I mean
short put spreads short call spreads you
can play it either way I mean there’s
gimmies and godges on both sides so you
can kind of you can kind of examine it
and I think that was good cool cool well
that’s gonna wrap it up for today Dr Jim
we always appreciate you having you here
um in the teacher seat and we’ll catch
you guys next time peace peace
rock paper scissors he just played paper
he’ll do it again no Rock men
statistically play Rock but he played
paper and lost and the mind works in
patterns he’s going scissors he knows I
know he’ll go scissors but knowing I
know he knows Scissors Shoot thought we
were doing Rock Paper Scissors Shoot
it’s always rock paper scissors if if
you think like a Trader we’ve got your
back tasty trade join the club genius
regulation time may have expired but the
conversation is just getting started
this is overtime the postmarket
scrimmage for Market junkies join Chris
Veo ilas spivac and me Dylan rigan as we
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from earnings to politics to macro
events and more nothing’s out of bounds
on overtime we break down the news to
provide you A playbook for your trades
watch overtime Monday through Thursday
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[Music]
live hello Tim night here and it is meta
day this time um we’re in the thick of
the earning season this is when every
Day brings us well most usually like
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday and for some
reason Tuesday and Thursday are the big
days but yeah we’re in the med of right
now um where you can see the big
household names come out with earnings
and see what that does to their stock um
I’m pretty pleased with what I’m seeing
in the market uh this is kind of what I
was hoping for because on Friday it was
like uh well big rally coming because
they a’t going to they a’t going to sit
still for this uh and a big rally did
come added about a th000 points to the
Dow in just a few days and uh a lot of
retracements a lot of pushes and as of
this
morning it was looking like maybe it’s
done and so I bought uh I I can’t
remember the last time I bought SMH
puts um but I bought those this morning
because the retrace is
beautiful um I have raised a giant white
white flag on my xlu trade I’m just sick
of it uh which probably means it’ll work
out great ultimately but i’ I had enough
so I’m uh dispense that completely so
I’m just in three positions now all
bearish um iwm SMH and
XLF I’ve got a way too many charts to be
talking so let’s get in there and I’ll
I’ll go
swiftly uh here we go all right here’s
the spider and that dash line there is
my best guess at resistance maybe I can
lower it in a day or two but uh at the
moment we’re down a little bitty bit on
that and so the the um merciless rise
from Monday and Tuesday we’re getting a
break from that here’s the diamonds also
red and in this instance as I said
yesterday it looked like we might be
just about done and so far so good we
have not crossed above Ash Red Line you
see uh one cool item is the iyt I’ve
been pointing this one out it’s uh it’s
actually on the move here because we got
this top we fell pushed back and
yesterday and I don’t recall if I shared
iy yesterday I think I did I certainly
did a post about it on slope that is for
sure uh about the transports but we um
we did a big retrace yesterday peaked
and then have reversed hard so we’ve
undone all those gains in recent days
and we’re at the today we’ve reached
prices um that were lasting like early
in February so we’ve undone a lot of
those gains so that’s pretty cool and
then
iwm uh is down nicely about 7/10 of
percent uh and here too uh tight stop at
that dash line right there and that’s
one of my three bearish positions
jumping overseas eem is actually in the
green and we’re watching the sine wave
on this one uh I’m not in this one I got
out last week at a pretty good price uh
and the hard stop on this would would be
this price Gap up here but I’m not
participating that myself and then EFA
is weirdly down even though uh eem is up
but EFA is down a little bit and um it’s
not as important as like the diamond and
the spider horizontals but on this one
I’ve got it uh
7824 so that’s the quick Round Up Now
Tesla Tesla Tesla Tesla um yesterday I
said maybe it’ll go down $15 or maybe
it’ll go up $15 cuz we’re in this no
man’s land well it was the ladder it
went up $15 and then some it had a great
uh after hour session even though I
think they missed every single number uh
they rallied and someone wrote me said
do you still think this will be the most
valuable company in the world actually
yeah I think that’s still a possibility
and I’ve I’ve been clear the whole time
I’m not talking about like next month
I’m talking about like in a decade or
maybe in five years but it is it is
within the realm of possibility that
Tesla is bigger than anybody because I
believe that transportation will be
unrecognizable 30 years from now if we
had a really cool governments that
really to move fast it could be 5 years
from now but we don’t so it’s going to
take decades to go through all the labor
unions and all the so insurance
companies and society change and all
that but maybe sometime before I’m gone
to the great Parian graph in the sky
we’ll see those changes take place so um
Tesla is uh is on the Move now I do not
think this will last in fact I did a
post this morning saying well that’s
probably about it cuz when I say most
valuable coming on the planet that’s
like a long ways off right now I’m still
pretty D about uh the price prospects
here and sure enough we went zipping
higher there’s just this incredible uh
population of owners that want to get
out which is going to suppress um any
any price ascendency um and so we peaked
today uh for one almost
168 we’re at 162 now um and so there we
have it I I think that you know
obviously we have L literally years of
overhead Supply that’s going to be a
barrier to any easy price uh ability you
know if you ask me like all right 6
months from now will it be higher or
lower I’m kind of thinking it’s going to
be lower um it’s going to be a tough
slog so uh Tesla was the big one last
night um Uber is taking it on the chin I
I suppose at least partly because of all
this robot taxi AKA um cyber cab I think
is the latest term um from
Tesla but uh good Heavens I got all
these duplicate tops up here let’s clean
that up um but yeah we’ve we’ve uh got a
nice big top there on uh
Uber and uh cuz just this is kind of an
existential
question um for companies like
that okay uh couple of bullish charts
just to confuse people um this one still
looks good we’ve talked about this the
uh the most Blas company name in history
Dave I guess Bob would be worse but
there’s Dave uh and it’s up um again so
after this space here it’s been blasting
higher and uh this one we’ve talked
about which I like better Oscar health
oscr
um nice steady push higher it is just
sort of ignored all the uh the melstrom
around it so Oscar is looking real sh
and a little close to my wheelhouse just
some various bearish looking charts here
um Alexandria real estate a monster top
on that one craer barel cbrl it’s lost a
lot already but it’s in a formation it’s
kind of the scallops I’ve heard it
described as just down down we go just
progressively making these rounded tops
and working its way lower um and so most
recently we had this top and it’s gone
bounding back uh approaching resistance
there so long long term you can see just
how high this still is and then shorter
term really more like medium term you
can see how it’s been carving out this
series around the tops and progressively
working below each one of
those um Cleveland cliffs
clf a little bit of the same idea
although it’s not um you know lowering
each time it’s just uh a series of of
topping
patterns this one is chart Industries
gtls monster round the top one this one
not quite complete yet this goes back a
full four
years uh Huntsman hn kind of the same
idea you can see history of topping
patterns here typically followed by uh
big drops and one more insight I Inc Y
which is a big right triangle pattern
spanning back a decade incredibly and
we’ve been working lower on this and
we’re
approaching um a new kind of decade low
um the lowest we saw in this was way
back last year so we’ll just put that
little marker there but it’s definitely
um looking like it’s progressing um
lower and lower on that one too I can
today’s a very different day I’m just
glancing all my screens here very
different feel past couple of days cuz
like Monday and especially Tuesday we
just like resolutely bullish just like
blasting higher now it’s like you got a
tug-of war going on you can see on an
intraday basis up down up down up down
we got an up going on at the moment U
maybe because there’s so many earnings
coming up maybe there’s some optimism
around those but it’s uh it’s nothing
like yesterday definitely a battle going
on haven’t talked about Crypt a little
bit because it’s been really doing
nothing for two months here in spite of
all the the having um H Ving excitement
but uh yeah here’s ethereum just kind of
mandering around we’re at the same price
we were as I said a couple months ago
almost to the day uh Bitcoin off
thousands again um but still pretty
lofty this really won’t matter until and
unless we breach this level way down
here um got this very histrionic message
to myself crypto collapse but the just
below 60,000 should have breached that
that would be a pretty big deal and for
a lot of reasons so um but that’ll take
some doing that’s that’s a good $4,000
from here but yeah there’s
Bitcoin um earnings big big afternoon
for earnings a few of the companies out
there um and I hope these dates are
right dates are squirely things I try to
verify these but I think think these are
all correct uh Chipotle CMG quite
obviously an amazing stock for a very
long time um had a rough going here for
a while it it basically uh spanning from
2012 all the way to 2017 so 5 years just
kind of Unwound all those gains but
since then it has been pretty Resolute
in its progress so we’re near lifetime
highs on this um pretty rich as always
it’s always had a high PE um you know so
a 65 right now this is a favorite of
Bill lman kind of a principal holding of
his but um that doesn’t tend to
disappoint uh service now in ow this one
also pretty richly valued like nearly
90p on this one uh in this
case obviously longterm very strong we
were in this channel for years and years
and years this finally broke down here
but then it dusted itself off and it’s
been generally progressing higher this
round the top here did not complete so
it looks very interesting it was it was
looking uh like it was going to take a
plunge and it did not quite do it and
then blast it higher maybe we’re having
a repeat of the same thing right here in
fact uh it’s already
repen um that so-called topping pattern
but uh that’ll be an interesting one but
better known is Big Blue IBM
which has been on a tear for a while um
this too had its own sort of dower
history because if we dial this back uh
if you look from say way back to like
1962 to
1993 so you know three
decades of loss uh lots of ups and downs
in the meantime but basically three
decades and just a dog of a company
since then tremendous so we had this
incredible rise right here this this
amazing run that had in the late 90s
consolidate another big run consolidate
and then another run like so so we’re uh
we’re we’re not at lifetime Highs but we
it wasn’t that long ago that we were
we’re not too too far away from those
and the one everybody knows and probably
the biggest um attention get is going to
be meta um this company looked like a
goner not that long ago and it just had
one of the the most amazing recoveries
about a 400% gain in equity price since
then um and the most recent earnings um
you can see here just a eye popping lift
this tremendous Gap like so so that’ll
be quite interesting to watch as well
and will really inform kind of the
sentiment to tech stocks uh and in doing
so um the cubes have managed to uh Still
Still Still show some green I would say
that something like 430 is a reasonable
um bottom for that top so that’ll be
worth watching and SMH which as I said
early today I went ahead and got a puts
on that um this one pretty much opened
at its high which is a beautiful one
here uh like so and has been weaker
since then uh I’m not showing a video
today but wow it’s got a pretty chart um
in terms of its own retracement you know
I had I had some Forex charge I was
going to look at but I’m out of time I’m
going to not step on the toes the next
show so I’ll just say goodbye and good
luck and I will see you here on Thursday
bye if you missed the live show here’s
our cherry on top weekly
recap back my friend what are you still
eating while we’re on the show like a
gone honestly what’s wrong with you I’m
have I’m eating a um posio I know
pachio we seriously remember you’re from
New Rockford or New Rochelle wherever
the hell you’re from Ronan I mean you
know don’t be giv me
pistachio don’t give me that pistachio
what are you doing those pictures of
[Laughter]
me that sounds terrible I was taking
pictures of me yesterday and and
giggling yeah when I walked out of the
office she was doing that yeah because
it’s funny
in an in an almost totally empty parking
garage bat guess who again is parked
right on the
line it’s not me people think I lie it’s
not me no I saw no I clocked it this
morning oh please the garage is
literally empty you did not I’m
perfectly parked
oh I forgot cuz you’re a really good
driver right that’s right um before the
show started this morning cuz I know
you’re such a good driver that the oh
you took a picture of my car I did that
on purpose the security came up here to
ask who’s parking like this banetta like
take a look at the screen please yes I’m
going tell you why I did this when
you’re done I would like you too I would
like you to notice where the yellow
lines are oh in exhibit a did you see
the little car next to me now I park my
truck all the way against that wall
there cuz I can’t make the turn it’s you
know it’s a hard trck big it’s a hard
turn there was somebody in a little tiny
tiny car in my big spot that I park in
so I just moved over a little B you park
in another big spot cuz there’s nobody
else in the garage except those two
spots everything has its place every
place has its thing so you could have
parked in any that’s where I go big spot
you know what it’s so funny that you did
this cuz I knew when I did it that you
were going to do that you didn’t know
funny you know I drove it I’m like oh my
God for all the crap he gives me about
just being close to there’s a car
already to my right I don’t know but all
I’m saying is you are unbelievable sat
here all morning 45 minutes together we
talked about everything we shared
pictures we talked about family members
we did everything we talked about all
the types of bread that all the types of
bread there are in the world that’s
right that’s right I forgot to mention
forgot to mention it you had production
had production prep it you forgot to
mention forgot to mention about the
lines MH plus playoffs and stuff like
that probably no playoffs for the
Blackhawks he has all three rings sure
sure yes yes so he does work for the
Blackhawks cuz they gave him three rings
it’s cool to have three rings I don’t
care what your relationship is with
Hawks you sing the national anthem or
your you know the I mean they give you
know you have three rings whatever I’m
out here fighting for my life for just
one
ring I probably have a leftover ring
somewhere if I looked around you been
engaged nine times I could find one you
should wear an engagement ring because
it attract people yeah it attracts
people yes I don’t want the kind of man
that wants to cheat on somebody or wants
to be you might think about broing your
that’s not that’s it’s not about guys
that want to cheat go ahead explain this
to me because I got nothing go ahead
break this out why would I yeah Tom
explain it to why would I a woman not in
a relationship where an engagement R
guys
are more attracted to people that they
think
are are attractive to somebody else well
we should
[Laughter]
stop we should cut your m i just just
try to do the schedule back get the full
scoop by checking out the archives at
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tradeing the alarm hey Ring the Alarm
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last call the last call the last call
toas toas we’re back my friend you know
what that means time for the last call
even snps basically unchanged up
a175 NASDAQ up 60 the leader to the
upside and the leader to the downside
the Russell down 0 even the snps have
traded
1.26 cars or million Futures good volume
not fantastic but good Dow down 22
volatility unchanged s off volatility
doesn’t know where it wants to go bonds
down 23 they’ve been soft most of the
day looks like they’re settling in
mid-range for the day Bitcoin got a
little bit weaker this this this
afternoon traded down to 635 I’m talking
about the cash it’s about $1,000 higher
than that right now oil also reversed
after being a little bit higher down 41
cents to
8295 and gold down $7 and change seem
seems like a breather day sof in the in
the market to the downside you have
Nvidia there was some two-sided action
Nvidia Trad all the way up to 840 it’s
now 796 under 800 uh another one you
might know is I I I like that by the way
oh I know you do in in in Netflix for
sure no no Nvidia I don’t have a Netflix
I mean in Nvidia that’s what I meant
yeah and meta now also made a reversal
after opening and trading up to 510 it’s
493 Netflix down 22 bucks coin down $10
coin was
$239 it’s 225 right now so you had a lot
of stocks that kind of um had a nice
little run when the NASDAQ was what do
you think about meta
here I think I’m going to surprise you
you think you’re going to surprise me
yeah curious okay A little
bullish that doesn’t surprise me really
it doesn’t okay good well I mean I’m
surprised stock was 510 this morning uh
opened at 508 open near its highs sold
off been selling off for most of the day
I don’t
know a little but it’s Define risk trade
I mean a $500 stock there’s a lot of
buying power for naked options you can
get and with the call skew you can get
quite wide if you can go naked if you’ve
got the
uh quite a down move in um natural gas
today just as an FYI yes 12 cents 12 and
a half cents I don’t have a n guas
position but that’s the biggest mover on
a percentage basis of all the Futures
that I look at
here nice move in Apple today to the
upside for a change um like I said nice
move in Nvidia to the downside
um uh one stock that has earnings this
afternoon Apple opened lower too 166 and
uh trade up to right here in near York
TI I’m sorry good I have a very very
small position on in uh on what’s my
position in love
Luv they have earnings this afternoon um
they
do 16 cents Ivy rank of 49 yeah the
options haven’t moved much I and by the
way Tesla Tesla volatility got hammered
today uh Tesla monthly implied
volatility out in June yesterday uh you
can see here how volatility has come
down from the high 70s into the 30s but
in June alone it was 62 it’s now 51
that’s 10 ball points in a 58 Day Option
that’s a big move in volatility I’m
sorry God I did not make nearly what I
should have made in Tesla today given
the Vol move given everything else no
why do you think that is I don’t know
probably because I’m a bad Trader but um
you know we have an app for
that um I did not I did
not do well I mean I made money but all
things considered yes me Lord of course
you did you’re well I mean I should have
because I had a good position on but all
things considered I would say I stunk
yeah yeah all things considered I would
say not
[Music]
impressive these are loud what the hell
is not even Saturday and you’re not
impressive right not I’m I’m not
impressive on a Thursday on a what is it
Tuesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday
not impressive on a Wednesday um let’s
see what else do we got got here that’s
uh just looking to your EMP is down $6
and change EMP I covered on the opening
and Visa I covered on the opening if I
if I just covered Tesla and Boeing on
the opening I would have done I would
have had a better day um I kind of
butchered Boeing and I kind of butchered
Tesla they offset each other so one
Tesla was a winner Boeing was a little
bit of a loser they should have both
been winners oh I’m trying to see Tesla
here sorry everybody there it is I kind
of butchered it
I kind of made too many adjustments
Tesla was one of those stocks there that
if you covered on the opening you done
good if you waited till the end of the
day you didn’t do as
good um yeah Tesla has a little bit of
um uh Tesla’s a little bit of upside
there’s some skew to the upside for sure
what do you think of what do you think
of the overall Market here today
unchanged after a kind of a all things
considered I think the market looks like
crap two or three day rally yep all
things considered I think the market
doesn’t look that good
um I’m not that impressed with the
market tape action today at all um but
let’s go through tonight some of
tonight’s earnings plays
and um which one Ford yes sir I don’t
trade it awesome I’ll go to meta then
since you trade it okay what do you
thinking
meta more importantly than what a Johnny
like I thinks okay So Meta is down $2 it
was down a little bit more it was up
early than it was down blah blah blah
about $10 lower than this about $20
higher than this I have a very small May
position on I have the 440 540 I went
exactly to the expected move on both
sides 445 expected move is 50 bucks in
May right yeah I went $50 higher $50
lower um on a small strangle I did not
take it that big a shot that’s trading
for
$19 uh I’m sure 1912 mid price yeah I
think I’m sure at 1920 so it’s eight
cents higher nothing but um I have that
position on small that one I’m keeping
on small and then my main position in
meta is a June position you have a main
position and a little like a yeah a
Johnny position and a main position my
main position my June position 390
625 I hate it
39625 I hate it I know I hate it because
I never make any money in meta no I was
just repeating what you said yeah 16
short Deltas on that uh June spread 76%
Pop I said it’s a it’s a tough naked
position use a lot of buying power yeah
it’s I don’t even like
it I I I I might do something with it by
the end of the day let’s see I’m short
options bullish bearish or neutral on
meta um that position would be a little
tiny bit bearish I could see that but
I’m asking you what’s your what’s your
call on on I I don’t honestly I I I
think it’s going down okay meta
surprises tell me you don’t have an
opinion this what we do here all day
long we’ve been sitting out there
talking to Liz and Jenny now for 17
hours I mean they have an opinion on
everything I come I ask you one question
you have no opinion on that I have an
opinion I’m bearish on it Okie doie but
I’m gonna I’m gonna take a little bit of
risk off the table and just light I
think it continues inside the expected
move it’s $40 is expected move I hope it
does well I mean that we’ve had some
markets inside the expect to move like
Tesla I guess Tesla’s a little outside
Tesla’s a little outside the expected
move Boeing was inside the expected move
somehow I lost money in there should
have covered on the opening um but
anyway uh so that’s meta I’m not really
doing that much in meta IBM IBM your
beloved okay I’ve had a position on here
for quite some time it didn’t do
anything today I have the 170 195
strangle on it’s 12 got a good Ivy rank
yep and uh Stock’s up a buck 27 today
170 what 17
70 uh 170 puts I’m short 195 calls I’m
short is the stock going to go to
200 probably not on the opening you’ll
have time it’ll probably open
198 $9 expected move in IBM $9 expected
move approximately little less maybe I
might widen the strikes out a little bit
problem in IBM is the markets aren’t you
just sell puts in IBM what happened to
you I used to when the stock was 130 now
the Stock’s 190 83 yeah yeah whatever
and I thought I was going to trade 200
before um what else you got and I have a
very small position in love I’m just
short some naked puts okay I won’t even
mention how about a no position are you
doing anything there I have not IV rank
a 58 kind of a tough stock uh for me to
get uh after the up move in IBM if I did
anything in a I would get long it but
you have to have a directional bias it
has a dollar and a half or less expected
I’m going to pass in June all the way to
June I’m going to pass uh
caterpillar uh you oh yeah I’m short of
call spread in there but I’m at Max loss
in caterpillar yeah so I need this I
didn’t do anything in there so I need
the stock to go down how many points you
need uh
caterpillar $15 expect the moving
caterpillar that’s why I ask I need 15
one five you you all 15 it’s a little
bit greedy but okay see what I can do
for you I’m already I’m basically
already at Max law so it doesn’t matter
right I get that I mean yeah and love
you sold puts no need to talk about
yeah so I got you I mean there are
plethora other uh stocks with the with
earnings but I mean if you don’t like
these you’re probably not going like any
of the others yeah the question is do we
do anything in bonds here because you
got a big number coming out tomorrow
morning I think I bought
a bval has been creeping up that is for
sure yeah um personal income personal
spending what’s your big number bonds
tomorrow I hope the surprises to the
upside I can’t tell you hope the
surprises to the upside um it yeah
something um they they looked sick all
day today they did matter of fact when
you bought them at 1331 they’re two
ticks higher than that right now when
you boy be like oh I don’t feel good
about this this does not feel right not
this I loved them at 1401 and 14 even as
soon as they traded under 1330 I hated
them I know um I I think I bought some a
little bit lower than that did um I’m
going to sell some here on the close at
1401 if I can just just to lighten up
because you know I got I got to do
something between now and tomorrow
morning um I’m a little too long bonds I
also bought a bunch of notes let’s see
how we did there I don’t I think we
might have scratched is family getting a
little getting on you with this Bond
position a little bit you a little
actually notes we made money today how
explain that yeah I’ll explain it to you
we named a magazine after it luckbox is
what it’s called riddled me that capy
ton um I’m bad as you thought see no I
might sell some of the notes Here at 50
if I can get filled 2550 25 5550 perfect
Apple helped you a lot today Boeing
didn’t do you any favors
yeah coin EMP helped you what about your
coin position what’s that um that should
be good today let me see I should have
done okay in coin oh no you made money
in coin I just asking what your position
was oh I have no position I’m I mean I
have a big position it’s just I’m the
155 390 I’m really wide strangle you are
very wide yeah and I roll to
June nothing to see here I just was
looking at your p&l you had a good p&l
so yeah it’s fine maybe it had uh some
directional bias no no nothing I’m all
good um my positions were okay I just
needed I needed Nvidia to go down and it
went down mhm um that was the gift from
the gods cuz it opened pre-market this
morning it was trading at
844 yeah and now it’s closing at 795
unbelievable yeah I need sit right here
for 20 how many more days we got
20 something well actually I’m rolling
on Friday so I needed to sit here until
Friday what’s earnings May 22nd roll
into earnings no I just needed to sit
here till tomorrow um oh and then you
can get
out Nvidia let’s let’s just
see I I’ll tell you what I have in
Nvidia okay this is interesting position
I have the May I’m long the May 845 puts
those closed at the money this morning
I’m long the May
8:45 835 put spread and I’m short the
765
760 put
spread the Christmas tree AC going on
you look
golden yeah pretty golden right yeah I
think what I can do here is well there
is a 60% chance of a touch of
750 blows this whole thing out of
water I know I know I’m trying to figure
this out as long one puts bread sure
another puts bread it’s like
a I can sell my 760 puts stupid and buy
the 755 puts I could do that spr
for yeah I could do that that’s a good
adjustment that’s a good
adjustment you know Nvidia trades like
water it seriously trades like freaking
water it’s as liquid as water it doesn’t
trade like water water doesn’t trade
it’s as liquid as water you see the the
Paradox that you’re using it’s liquid
it’s water liquid is water to describe
trade do you get
it I’m going to adjust my Nvidia
position you’re going to try I’m going
to make it into the Paradox of the
century um I like messing around with
the videoid the only reason I’m doing
this is because inidia has um I’m going
to roll Nvidia
to uh to June by Friday yeah what did
you just do it’s too you it’s too
complicated for you to understand what’s
that it’s too complicated for you it’s a
complex four-way I sold a put spread and
I rolled down a put
I’m sorry I sold a put spread and rolled
down a call thank you okay you said puts
but you rolled down calls thank you I
rolled down a put spread picked up big
credit and then rolled down some calls
got it got it thank you sir thank you
sir M I was just gonna say same thing
yes good um and let’s see what do we
have going on into the close here I’m
thinking of pce release on Friday PC yes
I I could he actually took that class in
high school didn’t
PC class yeah something like that I like
these
guys what is that
personal what is PC personal consumption
person pce index I don’t know personal I
don’t know I don’t know but you said
there was some number coming out and I
said what and you didn’t know so they
told me okay well the big question here
is inflation number do you do anything
else going into the close into these
earnings because you know earnings have
not hurt us yet they haven’t exact
looking to get so you’re looking to get
into trouble to get hurt no they haven’t
hurt us yet and they haven’t really done
anything spectacular yet we made a 100
trades today so I definitely you were
active yeah you were active that way
yeah we’re definitely active
um I’m ready I know I know you are give
it to me let’s go let’s get this party
let’s get you’re ready you’re ready to
go yeah I I’m kind of feeling
like you know some of the stocks today
turned around in an ugly fashion Nvidia
and that that was what I started off to
show I know I’m saying but Nvidia uh
Boeing which opened up you know a lot
higher Tesla really didn’t move much all
day and just some of the stocks that
were super strong meta this morning you
they all turned around I mean question
is can they rally again tomorrow on the
heels of you know really good meta news
or is
it what happens if meta is
bad it doesn’t seem like individuals
stocks have really hurt this Market at
all to be honest with you yeah but meta
is kind of a different
animal um meta is GNA do good because of
Tik Tok ban how about MK MRK no
untradeable I already told you
caterpillar how about n I’m this my
Taiwanese stes n yeah I don’t know what
that is now I know I don’t know what
that is I don’t know what it is either
but
that’s what it is I don’t know now never
heard of it are you looking at the
talking points that they sent you lrc X
yeah and
CMG o CMG a little Chipotle um I would
say my recommendation is to not trade
Chipotle if I were you I can’t trade
seven eight doll wide markets I can’t I
know it’s a $2,000 almost $3,000 stock
but I I just I can’t get in I mean if
somebody told me they were sell they
were selling a one lot strangle that was
what is what’s stock $2,000 three 3,000
up on the screen
and what is the expected move in
there for May $200 $170 for the next two
days okay so say $200 yes so you got to
go $400 out of the money in May so you
got to go $800
wide you probably probably collect $2
right oh I think this be a little bit
more than that $3 so you want to go what
down to the 25s in May you go $200 wide
$400 wide I’m sorry $400 yes so it’s the
2500 the down 29 3500 to the upside yeah
you’re going to get like $12 or
something oh really that much yeah yeah
I guess so $3,000 talk 10 $10 $10.45 mid
price yeah you don’t want to sell that
they’ll never get it
back they’ll they’ll they’ll close it at
$10 they’ll mark it at 14 and they’ll
open it at 18 and then you have to wait
all day to get it at
99 yeah you will eventually you will but
I wouldn’t do
that yeah use a lot of buying power for
sure I wouldn’t do do that mhm yeah no
that does not work for Tom
um yeah I have a little bit of going
home with a little bit of short Delta
same Theta numbers as last night same
extrinsic as last night um flip the risk
over from Tesla to meta we have not had
good success in meta earnings wise no we
haven’t we haven’t my timing Source
would like you know because you are a
closet um closet
what not going to say it you are closet
um chartist you you know sure you do
what do you want to know what is this uh
what is this candle called hat candle
yeah that’s graestone dogee no what is
it that’s an that’s that was what they
engulfing candle yeah it’s like an
engulfing is that bullish or bearish
that that’s super bearish what is that
that’s Boeing Boeing yeah it’s super
bearish I mean according to I forgot who
the candle guy was but whoever the
candle guy was that’s super bearish
according to the Candle Maker according
to the Candle Maker Diego Jason bearish
go Jason that’s the ugliest pattern you
can have the full full bearish engulfing
pattern there you go yeah that’s when
you’re surrounded that’s like the that’s
the the old um you know they got it
surrounded yeah they you’re totally
surrounded you have nowhere to go you
tra like a rat so you can bet your butt
that stock will be higher tomorrow you
can bet everything you want on it yeah
you bet everything you want that’s
that’s about as ugly as it
gets understood that’s all I
got that’s all I got what do I have for
tonight looking at this Market I was
trying to sell some bonds and some notes
going in the close but I did not get
fill did I get no I did not get filled
um I think we’ll have a chance does come
out after the market closes just to give
you some background yeah IBM comes out
after the market closes meta comes out
after the market
closes uh love I’m not sure
about oh
F on bonds F on notes love comes out in
the morning okay I think with
caterpillar take a look yep yes
caterpillar comes out of Mo too bonds
and& notes just got filled and SPO a
little that’s a good thing you light
lightened up in bond and& notes a little
bit SPO and the NASDAQ I’m watching the
NASDAQ here because I’m trying to get an
idea of if they’re leaking the Netflix
number oh there you go oh Netflix number
these are all the different ones that
they printed meta number I’m I’m sorry
The Meta number mhm these are all the
different ones that they printed up
today in the Cherry picks but uh yeah I
mean it’s funny when you look at the
first of all the Russell is pig pig and
when you look at the NASDAQ you know
even with Nvidia selling off today and
everything else the NASDAQ did not
really turn around well it lost half it
was up 13040 at one point right I mean
it was went red today all four indices
were red at one point today yeah it was
was red for a point but um so I would
rather buy bonds here I’ve said this
before I sold Longs i s have plenty of
them um I’m lung bonds and I’m long
notes and I want them to go a lot higher
sources just so putties and Boeing
because of you oh yeah I agree no I I
think you should be a little bit long b
a couple Deltas
Long hey hey hey who cares what you
think I’ve got some other guys that have
an opinion too got Dilly Dylan Ilia and
Chris Dylan Ilia and Chris how are you
gentlemen I just got done spending an
hour goes it
everybody they now call us dilus sorry
Dylan that was not on purpose hey that’s
that’s that’s nicer than what I thought
he was gonna
say it’s like a celebrity hybrid this
one’s in
triplicate you saved me that was a kick
saveing abuse write it down that’s a way
nicer I thought he was say call People
magazine we will we will I apologize
that made you famous ER now thank you
you’re welcome I need I need that like I
need a hole in my head I have a hard
enough time walking around trying to
pick out my bread and cheese at my
various artisanal shops the few that are
left after snoff got busy running Amazon
and Walmart over everybody you can’t
even get a a decent loaf of bread in the
in in any town in America dyl come to my
town next time in New York we have an
olive oil store so spefic talking this
is what I’m talking yeah come to San
Francisco we’re prepared for you all the
quality bread you could possibly want
There You Go San Francisco’s got a fine
loaf of
bread there you go you see Dylan and you
were all worried you weren’t going to be
able you were G to be you were gonna be
just lock
yeah with with guys like you looking to
clickity click oh send me send it all to
my house you know you don’t even want to
get out of your pajamas you just sit
there with
actually actually I don’t really care
about Amazon’s food delivery or their
the speed of which they deliver things
because I’m still old school and I like
to go get my stuff but I think the other
things that Amazon has brought like the
technology you’re using now today to do
this show is all on Amazon CL you mean
cloud services about sure AWS yeah yeah
what you’re doing right now uh I don’t
think we could have done this without
Amazon so so let’s the stock that’s how
about a little Peter
Lynch oh my God today oh my God God God
God save me um all right boys what do
you think here what do you make of
today’s tape action before you answer
I’ll give you some inside information
from our little Cherry picks there Met
has a tendency to increase on earnings
uh over the last 22 Quarters at least
with the medium move of up 5% or plus
minus 5% 5% uh IBM has a tendency to
increase as well over earnings too about
1% there you go sof now you gentleman
can that’s actually very misleading
because over the past 22 quarters in IBM
the net was up 1% but the but have you
took the media move was 1% the standard
deviation was a plusus 5% yeah most of
the IBM moves have been down for the
past 22 course but I but meta’s been
meta’s been off with your head
misleading person yeah meta’s been meta
has a tendency to just do crazy stuff
that’s all I’m going to
say anyway what do you guys think about
these I reloaded on my uh on my NASDAQ
puts so nice that’s where that that’s
where my head is at U I think maybe this
correction has run its course and next
leg and the down move is maybe coming I
think you’re going to get paid tomorrow
and this is a nice little sell off here
into the close they just were up five
now they’re well it’s unchanged that’s
sort of why I did it um I was looking at
uh what happened midday we were having
this conversation on overtime yesterday
with Chris and I was telling him look I
think there it’s going to be a positive
first half of today and a negative
second half as everybody distributes out
and gets ready for the big macro risk on
Thursday which is GDP um and they’re not
going to want to be overly long in front
of it and so that seems to be what we’re
seeing here so uh I saw it roll over and
I got in well if this is a market that
was carried by Tesla with Tesla earnings
good they were not good no this is all
about the hope of a model two this is
not a good earnings report it still
feels very bull trappy we we haven’t
cleared out any of the levels that you’d
want to clear out to feel comfortable as
a bull right now the stock got decimated
for three months prior I mean it feel
short covering make this pivotal moment
and the stock actually rallied but I
mean like you know the news is out well
boys we’re gonna have to let you guys go
because we got to jump on something so
we’re going to let you go I hope you
debate it we got a sandwich out there
got sandwich sure we’ll let you go and
we’ll see you tomorrow thanks I’m I’m
gonna go buy I’m gonna I’m buying some
Amon you should buy some meds up three
p hi I’m Ryan Grace with tasty crypto
and today we’re going to talk about the
Bitcoin
having the having refers to a reduction
in the reward Bitcoin miners receed for
mining Bitcoin when a miner successfully
adds a new block to the blockchain the
minor is rewarded in Bitcoin and today
this reward is 6 and A4 Bitcoin per
block after the having the mining reward
will be cut in half and miners will only
receive 3 and 1 eigh Bitcoin per
block this is not the first having the
having is programmed into the Bitcoin
source code and automatically occurs
after every 210,000 block period as new
blocks are added to the chain every 10
minutes habings occur roughly every 4
years and this is all by
Design the having process is a feature
of Bitcoin intended to control inflation
of the cryptocurrency and ensure
long-term security of the network the
having adds a degree of predictability
and stability to the supply of Bitcoin
compared to many Fiat currencies which
are susceptible to abrupt changes in
monetary policy and government
intervention there is no Central
Authority that can manipulate the supply
of Bitcoin it’s pre-programmed over
time this matters to investors as prior
having events have Mark the start of
significant price increases for the
cryptocurrency think about this way if
the rate at which the supply of Bitcoin
is growing gets cut in half and demand
stays the same or increases it can be
quite positive for prices following
prior
[Music]
the market was open today it’s Wednesday
April 24th 2024 this is overtime I’m
your host Chris Veo the man in Orange
jius BC the man in blue Dylan rigan here
to take you through the next hour as we
get through the Futures close it was a
mixed stay on Wall Street where stocks
came out strong out of the gate we
slumped midm morning only to Rally back
early afternoon before then selling off
softly into the close B yields up across
the curve we are waiting for those meta
earnings do out uh in a few moments time
we see here that gold silver take a
little bit of a step back today although
quite frankly holding a better in the
face of a stronger dollar and higher
yields and the dollar does continue to
rip Ilia fresh yearly highs versus the
Japanese yen is it time to put on an
intervention trade yet I know something
that I was kicking around with Anton
today I was kicking around with Thomas
westwater today I’m gonna kick it around
with you as well I’m gonna do it oh boy
well we’re gonna I me I mean if ever
there was a madman’s delight this is it
I mean if you can’t buy the end now win
Kenya anyway Chris is trying to do his
job I’m sorry I’ll let
uh outside of that we see that energy
falls down and uh if you’re trading the
NG K4 contract I guess it’s a bad day
for you because it’s off by 9.16% n gm4
is only up by about five but there may
be an interesting Trad up in there oil
slumps down a little bit otherwise
gentlemen it’s all about the market
reaction of Tesla uh we were not with
you yesterday and meta earnings I assume
are out now because I see the share
price is down 7% here my screen the one
minute chart just flashed a big red
candle for me so
Mazda boots forget the Tesla story for a
quick second let’s take a look at these
meta earnings as we see the share price
is at
449 we’re tracing a little bit right now
show us a chart show us a chart and Oh I
thought I did the share already oh
better show than tell what was I doing
I’m like oh why is no one they all the
way that I am here uh meta earnings meta
earnings meta earnings
well I’m gonna say something very I’m
gonna say something very soffian right
now
does it matter what the EPS was does it
matter what the revenues were the
stock’s
down who cares well who cares why am I
bothering looking for this information
who cares the stock’s down okay uh and
obviously not something that gonna help
the nasic here after hours we look at a
performance where IIA the tape today
you’re getting a little bit of a rally
in this market but it didn’t feel that
strong we’re shaving off a little over
100 points here after hours now thanks
to these meta earnings daily Candle on
the NASDAQ uh looked pretty good um I
was watching it um on the hourly
basically all day as I was waiting to
see how it would close and that dogee
there I think is very interesting if we
look at the way that that NASDAQ went up
from October call it that that you said
he called it a dogee that’s that that’s
a dogee candle yeah um dogee candle um
in uh Japanese Candlestick analysis
essentially a candle that goes nowhere
it’s a candle of in decision so you go
up you go down you close almost with no
change a perfect dogee candle would be
the open and the clothes are identical
this is not quite that it’s a little bit
better I would argue if you’re bearish
it’s it’s de down just a touch but I was
looking at this um and basically saying
on the way up the
NASDAQ would make its 4 a up it would
retrace then make the next 4A up retrace
and if you look at most of these
retracements they don’t go all the way
back to retest former resistance as
support there’s usually a little bit of
a gap here on on on the way up it’s not
quite um exactly
so I was looking at this and thinking
well I could wait for it to get back
into
1800 and miss the boat let me just
reload here this looks like momentum has
been sapped and so I was looking at it
on the hourly and once it rolled over on
the hourly uh chart I reloaded a put
spread looking for it to get back into
something like uh 405 on the cues which
would be just a little bit under the
recent low on NASDAQ
on NQ
here well I mean this this meta thing
that’s got to help your NASDAQ short the
it definitely
does that’s your best friend in town
I’ll tell you that’s that’s a good thing
for you yeah is is Zuckerberg pulling
the old Jack welshire earnings for the
first quarter 471 versus 430 expected
Revenue
36.467853
4 billion versus 35.7 billion expected
so those are three numbers that beat
here’s the
problem second quarter Revenue
expectation estimated 38.2 four billion
guided 36.5 to 39 so yes while the
estimate Falls within the range it the
estimates at the higher end of the range
that’s not really something you want to
see right with Nvidia you had the market
consensus for what second quarter
revenues may look like and Nvidia came
out and said no no no it’s gonna be much
more than that the market goes oh we
have to price in more money
uh here the Market’s effectively saying
oh you’re guiding lower fine now that
may be a good thing for the stock longer
term I call the old Jack Welsh where you
beat and then guide lower that way it’s
easier to clear the hurdle moving
forward but this is a market coming into
this week we’ve been saying it for a few
days the expectations were very high
price for Perfection the fact that you
came into this week where companies with
positive EPS surprises were not seeing
any benefit to their share prices and
those companies that were having
negative EPS surprises not having the
typical 2.3% loss in the two days before
and two days after but it was a 6.1%
loss for those negative EPS surprise
companies you really had to have perfect
earnings you had a beat on the top line
you had to guide better moving forward
and meta just didn’t do that here and so
the stock is down does it change
anything about the nasda though and the
technical setups and I suppose this is
an interesting checkpoint now about
three hours after Futures Power Hour
when we last discussed this at least
last I discussed this here on air and I
think the answer is no because this is
just such a crummy place to enter don’t
you think but don’t you think that I
mean because meta for sure is a bell
weather Beyond itself more so than Tesla
is right now absolutely and so if meta
is bringing in guidance to go this is
enough to make snoff roll over in his
grave God help us all but if meta
bringing in
guidance does that not basically lay a
little cold water a little a little uh
damp towel across the ENT higher hyper
growth hyper AI I understand the OR at
the very least indicate that if there’s
AI momentum it’s still locked in the
hardware chip transition and is not
really radiated out into hyper growth on
the consumer you know adoption rate that
the Bas of the expectation of AI
deployment in the consumer
Market is not as rapid as as would have
been indic ated by a very elevated meta
forward guidance I am so unconcerned
about meta and their approach to AI they
they are the single company that
concerns me the
least no but I’m saying but to what
degree is meta tempering tempering their
guidance indicative more broadly of
consumer demand for AI
ortion That’s not surprising I mean if
you if you want to like read through the
te leaves Zuckerberg and I’ve said this
a few times this week as well talking
about AGI and the AI narrative
Zuckerberg was out there with an
interview last week that was circulating
on fin twit where he said we’re not
going to have the power generation that
we need to successfully build and
sustain an AGI model for perhaps this
year and maybe even through the end of
next and so when when gu and guided far
I mean he was talking like
2050 yeah yeah and he was like this is
to get there you know it’s not going to
be like we have the power and then AGI
comes about it’s like there’s going to
be a lot of incremental steps until
we’re fully there so when I see him say
something like that and I look at their
forward guidance you’re asking this
question about AI I kind of connect the
dots and say maybe they’re guiding lower
because they don’t see the fruits of AI
coming down the pipeline so then where
does that leave Microsoft for instance
which
is I I’m gonna have to look you know
obviously only looking at the share
price response and the market responding
directly to the forward guidance I’m
this is an earnings call that I’m very
interested in listening to because I
think that one thing that met is doing
with its llama uh L model right it’s
open sourcing it which seems like okay
if you do something good why not charge
for it if if if you can spend your time
on a worm man or people should
compensate for you for
it what Zuckerberg has done in the past
and and this is a alpha capitalist move
it’s kind of like something that comes
right out of the uh Jeff Bezos Playbook
is when he sees that there’s a
burgeoning industry he’s more than
willing to throw a bunch of money at it
or a new product and throw a bunch of
money on it and get something that
and give it away until you’re
addicted and and make sure that people
are in it and more importantly it
prevents other companies from
establishing a foothold because you have
this significant substitution effect
where it’s like well I can use this
product for free and it may not be as
good as chat GPT but it’s 95% of the way
there and now you have the ability for
all these researchers to look at the
Llama Or look at the llm model and look
at the waiting and Tinker with it and
fine tune it itself and constantly
feedback to it so it’s helping improve
in real time it’s not a closed box so I
think Zuckerberg’s goal here is to
basically develop the open source model
that’s Head and Shoulders above everyone
else so that it crowds out the private
closed models at the end of the day so
that chat GPT may have been the first
but Zuckerberg is going to be the winner
here because who’s goingon to pay when
both are indistinguishable to the human
eye for the average
consumer I’m not concerned about
Facebook strategy um quite frankly this
pullback in the stock is having me
thinking like where is a place that we
could potentially look to get long I
think the fact that we’ve now moved
below the Gap that we had around the
last earnings report remember we closed
that day at 39478 we opened at
45960 if the NASDAQ does roll over here
right my whole game plan this week is
just survival don’t clear last week’s
lows to the end of the FC meeting next
Wednesday if the NASDAQ starts moving
through the lows that we saw last week I
think got to put Gap fill on on the
board for meta first I think you got to
think
394 and at the Gap
fill hoping that volatility is still
elevated it’s a 109.5 ivr right now if
we can have elevated volatility into a
gap fill that becomes a very interesting
point in which you look to sell puts but
right
now this is not necessarily in a place
technically speaking where there’s any
sort of support we’re in the middle of a
gap it’s no man’s land there’s no volume
here so this thing can continue to fall
could easily rise back to where it was
pre- earnings release of people say oh
you know what they’re just trying to
Tinker with our expectations because
they don’t want to let us down but
they’ve been still printing money either
way though I think this is too too soon
to try to buy the dip or or fade it but
you have a level I mean talk about mad
man’s Delight any of these stocks in the
first you know hour after
earnings good luck it’s a wood chip yeah
yeah exactly do I want to sell the 400
or like a 350 $400 put spread right now
at $442 no but if we get to 420 or
410 and we’re on approach to it I will I
will play The Gap fill and look for that
to be the end of the sell
off one of those where like if you like
oh I’m gonna sell the iron Condor coming
in because on on a volatility
contraction which would be very sopian
but now you’re getting your face chewed
off because the lower wing is is a mess
you know I mean this this
is I’d rather own a djt put than be
anywhere near this as a Madman well yeah
djt everyone’s F favorite former
Congressman Deon noones is in the
news because he put in a request with
the uh with the House of Representatives
to formally investigate manipulation by
Brokers and Traders into the share price
of
djt he’s now the CEO of
djt um what’s funny about this is that
is he coming for us for buying
those on the
website they put up instructions are you
worried about your shares being lent out
for those bad Brokers and and Elites who
are trying to rob you the hardworking
American of your harder dollars you
invested because you believe in the
president and his vision and here are
these Brokers trying to short the market
into Oblivion here’s what you can do you
can tell your broker to not allow your
shares to be lent out for short sale
sales so they have all these
instructions on their website now how to
tell your broker to prevent your sale
your shares from being L out
Citadel put out a statement about this a
few days ago I’m curious as
to whether you think they nailed the
tone
here quote Devon Nunes is the proverbial
loser who tries to blame naked short
selling for his falling stock
price Nunes is exactly the type of
person Donald Trump would have fired on
The Apprentice if he worked for Citadel
we would fire him as ability Integrity
or the center of everything we
do that’s really that’s a really
aggressive statement against the CEO by
the way I’ve never heard a hedge fund
put out a statement like that against a
CEO of a company and K and Ken Griffin
by the way big Republican big Trump guy
not like you know it’s not like it’s a
deep leftist saying this this is some
you know no this isn’t the Soros fund
yeah this is this is a guy who’s
actively backing you know Republican
candidates across the country at every
single level who’s a big supporter of
President Trump and his firm is coming
out and being like what is this stupid
crap but I think everybody agrees that
Devon Nunes Nunes is a proverbial loser
even
Republicans I mean when
you blaming markets and you start when
you start blaming markets you’ve already
lost you’ve already lost you’ve already
lost I mean this is this is very
um this is very rip ER
that’s what this sounds like this sounds
like oh uh what do you mean rate cuts
are not bringing down inflation
obviously this is some kind of a
conspiracy I need to fire my
Central Bank head five times over until
I realize this is not how monetary
policy
works
like no the difference with the DJ
that’s not that’s not what this is but
the difference Crow and you can’t blame
them at least with the president himself
is no one has proven more effective at
distorting factual reality to his own
desires than this man has and so I mean
the fact that there’s a a company that
makes no money basically that has still
has an Enterprise value of God knows how
many billion
dollars you know I’m just saying that
the that the delusion runs deep in this
world well and by the way people back go
and buy a flyer on on
hopium I mean how much of the tech rally
is hopium I think the Republicans should
just shift their allegiance to Ken
Griffin we’d all be better off to have
Ken Griffin be the new Republican leader
than Donald Trump I think I think this
might be a political play by Ken Griffin
to decapitate djt the man and step in so
then then Ken can be the Republican
candidate for president that might be
what this is he’s definitely a
billionaire uh and to beid he is
definitely a billionaire well it’s not
like yeah like and Trump’s a billionaire
too that’s not what I’m saying here but
like Ken Griffin is a different kind of
billionaire than Donald Trump yeah Ken
Griffin is a billionaire that created an
revolutionary technology that displaced
the New York Stock Exchange and as one
of the most the most efficient operating
culture on Wall Street for Market making
to the extent to which he clears $400
million a month in income for himself I
mean this is an icon of Wall Street
greed glory and and and and expertise
with love him or hate him I mean he’s a
real person who’s done a really created
led the revolution he basically ended
Market making as we know it and created
a new system well you know there’s aside
from the palace Intrigue here which is
fascinating you know Dylan I think it’s
really you and I didn’t talk about this
before the show but when I saw the Trump
media response to Citadel had said in
response to Deon
Nunes I actually got to the point where
I said is this is this going to be a
problem for Trump for the
election and if it’s going to be a
problem for the Trump for the election
the market begins to think that Trump
does isn’t going to win does it begin a
price in a future in which you have say
a democratic Trifecta what does that
mean for deficit spending right because
the Trump media organization says back
quote Citadel Securities a corporate
Behemoth that has been fine and censored
for an incredibly wide range of offenses
including issues related to naked Short
Selling and is world famous for screwing
over everyday retail investors at the
behest of other corporations is the last
company on Earth that should lecture
anyone on integrity and quote world
famous for what now you do we know of
any cases brought for screwing over
retail
investors well you know because they
were on the opposite side of the gme and
AMC stuff they were in cahoot with Robin
Hood they’re on the opposite side of
everything though I mean come on that’s
to they Market because they’re
Market they
do that’s the point of the business
that it wasn’t like they were just
making a market in Rob if you’re trying
to buy somebody’s got to sell it to you
I mean they buy it yeah come on yeah
like you want an apple you need an apple
vendor I think Ken Griffin is trying to
get I think Ken Griffin is trying to be
the Republican nominee and I think that
there’s no greater nothing scares Donald
Trump more than being a loser well and
so to call dein a loser is a to call
Trump proxy a loser that’s the that’s
that’s that’s the worst thing you could
say about the man it’s also very very
trumpian language because he’s he’s used
that particular epithet a lot well it
sounds like they were speaking in
Trump’s language to say signal to Trump
hey this is a guy that you don’t want
around you you want someone serious
running your company you don’t want this
guy there right because if I’m Ken
Griffin and I see this going on I’m I
get a trou on the phone I go why the
hell is this going on in public why
don’t you just call me up and and say
like can you get on the phone with one
of my people at my company and explain
to him what’s going on with the share
price because you don’t want to risk
losing his support but this entire stock
is an obvious
self-evident and well understood
scam yeah sure sure but the the the the
bigger picture for the market is Right
Trump’s election odds Trump doesn’t have
a lot of money he put up this money for
the bond in New York right but he’s
clearly strapped cash right now there
there’s a reason why he’s selling shoes
didn’t Cal on the bond get pulled anyway
I think the Attorney General back no
they they let it the judge allowed it to
go through right um as of yesterday I
believe okay but the point is that he’s
he’s he’s he’s strapped for cash and so
he really needs Republican donors to
come in with the money and so if he’s
picking fights with one of the biggest
Republican donors then how’s he going to
run ads later on in the year I mean it
could affect his ability to successfully
run a campaign if he starts biting the
hand that feeds him proverbially
speaking and if Trump election odds go
down materially which by the way as of
today he’s
winning uh Bloomberg just put out new
polls seven swing States Donald Trump
has leads in six of the seven states in
four of the seven states the leads are
outside of the margin of error so if the
election were held today Donald Trump
would be president based on the polling
data that’s available so I wonder if we
get to a point there’s no trait here
right now it’s just something I have I
wrote it down today and I have it on a
sticky note here just to remind myself
of it watch Trump’s election odds
alongside djt because it could have an
impact on the bond market in the runup
to the election where the market says
okay we’re not going to have a split
Congress anymore Democrats going to be
full control because the top of the
tickets melting down what does that mean
for deficits what does that mean for
taxes what does that mean for the
potential of tariffs with China what
does it mean for future Ukraine funding
or Israel funding right right now the
Market’s in a place where it looks like
we’re going to have gridlock again and
that’s a pretty comfortable place
because where we are now isn’t going to
change much over the next year or two
but something that could dramatically
impact Trump’s chances where he no
longer looks like he’s the front runner
for
president that could possibly Ripple
through the rest of the market I don’t
want to dismiss there a possibility the
DJ put I have again it’s talk about
being a proverbial loser that’s the
proverbial loser here this out of the
money put granted it only cost A110 C so
max lost what 110 bucks that’s why it’s
the madman’s trade High convexity
payout basically no expectation of it
ever hitting
uh but I’m not a fan of come around
it’ll come around I’m in there with
it’ll be all right it eventually gravity
will kick in just like it does with
everything over time
eventually uh but this is a stunk it’s a
meme stunk it’s not a regular single
share right and so you can’t treat it
normal and I still wouldn’t be trading
this day in and day out because it’s so
easily manipulated like the fact that we
have an 11% rally today
because the CEO of trump media asks the
house to to investigate manipulation
into the stock specifically he’s calling
up his old Republican friends hey guys I
need a favor it’s going to hey it’s
going to help Donald Trump hey Donald
Trump will look favorably on you if you
announce the investigation because it’s
gonna make him
wealthier this is this is a highly
manipulated share price obviously
somebody’s got to call the
SEC oh with my one single put I’m not
gonna be that person but I think that
just be this is the risk though right
again this is about the risk and being
aware of the this is a stock like
anything else but I think it’s an
interesting thing to watch if you’re not
trading it because as you’ve pointed out
Dylan it seems to be a direct barometer
for uh his perceived election chances
and he said himself that the market was
rallying in anticipation of him getting
elected and there’s just like that
little stupid voice in the back of my
head that says yeah that’s ridiculous
but then again when djt got crushed and
if it is a barometer for his election
chances as Dylan holds out and Trump
says that the market was rallying
because his election chances were up and
the poll shifted against him the last
few weeks
and maybe djt is down because his
election chances are down and maybe
that’s why the market was down broadly
which is nonsense but it is a thought
that cross my
mind I I I don’t attribute anything
about the way the stock market more
broadly has behaved to to anything about
this election whatsoever I don’t think
anybody I don’t think anybody could even
begin to care uh when when uh stock
markets here are are concerned about how
this election in November is going to go
I think it’s so close when you look at
the average polls and there is such
relative consistency when you look at uh
kind of the
big ideas as far as fiscal policy I mean
are we going to get any smaller of a
deficit if get a trump president
no no uh both of these are are are big
deficit uh type of
administrations I would say the really
big difference
here would be something like currency
policy and and we’ve talked about this
before the Heritage Foundation put out
um something like their recipe for
fiscal policy uh and it’s been talked
about admittedly and I I want to
disclaim this loudly the Trump Camp has
not endorsed this but there’s been
chatter that this Heritage Foundation
thing is kind of like a blueprint for
the uh fiscal policy yeah
project2 framework for
um a trump Administration and in
particular the part about the the US
dollar uh the part about um neutering
the bed and its independence the uh the
part about uh trying to get the dollar
back on some sort of a a asset based or
a commodity based or something based
other than Fiat kind of thing that would
be a stark difference were they to
actually embrace it it would be
essentially the end of us hemony as we
know it were that to be adopted because
it would undermine the most important
thing
for the US’s ability to sustain large
deficits with impunity it would
undermine US dollar liquidity we don’t
have to go far when the UK got back on
the gold standard in um early Winston
Churchill as prime minister days uh
we’re talking sort of early 1900s in war
period it
absolutely I mean to say that it was
destructive is to say nothing it
basically spelled the the the pound’s
demise as a global uh force and handed
the Baton to the doll so our
ability to borrow with
impunity rests on the idea that the US
dollar is the quintessential unit of
commercial exchange and there is no
alternative and that’s because of its
unrivaled
liquidity if we screw with that
liquidity it’s
over and if it’s over then we can’t
borrow with impunity and everything
comes crashing
down that would be a key difference were
it to actually be
embraced were it to be embraced IL you
brought up the US dollar I’m gonna skate
away from from Trump here a little bit
obviously not supposed to be a political
conversation we’re just thinking about
how this particular fits into the
broader you know influence of the market
and politics obviously influence markets
so Dylan using your theory it’s a
proxity for Donald Trump’s election
odds how are you trading this thing
right now and is it really tradable and
and when you look at the statements made
from the CEO and from Citadel and going
to the
house it’s difficult to get a read on
the on the thing because it’s so heavily
no no no it’s a clown show it’s clown
it’s it’s it’s a gossip I mean it’s very
pleasant but it’s really useless we
we’re it’s good that we’re moving on let
us come on so some actual TR we had our
fun we had our fun IIA dollar Yen spot
rates cross 155 today we haven’t seen
these levels since 1990 6j trading at
Double o64
945 uh this has been one of the places
both you and I were optimistic earlier
this year obviously it hasn’t worked out
because bonds have not exactly
cooperated I know for myself I’ve stayed
away for a few weeks now having been
burned a few times and I said you know
what I need to see some very specific
the conditions set back in place before
I get
long and while those conditions haven’t
been met it feels like we’re getting
awfully close to a point where the boj
and the Ministry of Finance have to do
something because they keep trying to
verbally intervene and warn everyone and
yet the Yen continues to
weaken uh zeroedge said earlier today
that Japan is watching the Y mization of
their currency happening in real time
that may be a little obtuse of or an
exaggeration of the situation SS like
these that Zero Hedge makes me roll my
eyes back uh into uh the I’m buy I’m
buying the end tomorrow first thing this
is ridiculous okay so oil hasn’t stopped
rallying it hasn’t stopped falling it
hasn’t stopped ring it’s been moving
around sideways the last few days but
it’s not going anywhere us yields
continue to push up there’s been a big
breakdown at the long end of the curve
you look to ZB today the little bit of a
rally that we’ve seen over the last few
days you go on a 4our time frame right
this move off the lows in the middle of
April bounce bounce bounce today we
break that up Trend so bonds are
weakening are taking another leg up oil
hasn’t collapsed why would the boj or
Ministry of Finance intervene tonight
why would it be this week right now when
the winds are not blowing at their back
IL because I want this is a this kind of
is a madman’s trade right selling a put
spread really isn’t mad Manny because
you’re doing it in RIS defined manner
the madman thing here to be to be to buy
like a a 10 Delta call right so if there
is an interv go all in yeah no just just
like something small so if if like the
market doesn’t do anything keeps falling
you have a defined loss yeah whereas if
the thing actually does happen you’re
going to get a big Tailwind it’s going
to be a waterfall kind of trade where
you’ll make the 10 to one and fxy might
be a way to do it if if the 6j future is
large um fxy uh is uh an ETF way of
getting size down so if you wanted to
put something on that’s small uh you you
could do it here okay so my question
though is forget product right we can
have once we once we have the idea
settled we can talk about like I do with
silver okay bullish on Silver can I get
this in si do I have to go to SLV we can
have the conversation about fxy about
dollan spot about 6j but it the question
is before we even get to deployment is
this the right time to deploy this
idea I don’t think so because we have a
boj policy meeting this week and that’s
a very significant event risk for this
whole conversation but isn’t it a
catalyst I mean what on Earth is a boj
going to do other than anything in their
power to support the end yeah and to his
point isn’t it true that after the last
boj meeting where we got the changes in
policies the immediate response by the
market was they’re not going to do
anything else the rest of this year so
how can the boj meeting disappoint
us well I think what we’re looking for
here isn’t really the outcome of the
meeting so much as we’re looking at the
markets who are aware that the meeting
exists and so they’re looking at it and
they’re not going to front run it
they’re going to wait and hear what the
boj is going to say this is much the
same as the US GDP numbers tomorrow it’s
ultimately I think more important that
there is a release than what the release
actually says getting on the other side
of event risk is just Baseline risk
management and so I think what you’re
going to look at here with this boj
meeting is essentially the market is
going okay let’s let them say what
they’re going to say
now there’s been a lot of squawking from
boj officials about we don’t like that
the yen is being so erratic we don’t
like that this is um happening so
quickly yada y y
now are they going to actually announce
some sort of Yen policy
no I don’t think so uh what about an
intervention what about something
aggressive that says
listen the I do think that there is room
here for them to kind of chin check and
basically have in the language like look
we don’t think this is
helpful we think that uh inflation isn’t
helped by the Yen weakening to this
extent because obviously that’s
inflationary and so if the bank of Japan
signals something along the lines of
look we don’t like the traj to
here this is a concern the last CPI
number incidentally was kind of a mixed
bag but a little bit softer ultimately
than expected so it’s not like CPI
data is screaming for the boj to hike
again but if they come out here and say
something along the lines of look if the
Yen keeps doing this we’re going to have
an inflationary issue it’s going to
start to undermine our ability to keep a
LD on this thing then you’d get the kind
of thing that gets the Yen moving a bit
higher off the
announcement and if you create that
Tailwind that’s where the
and so meaning they meaning they’re
gonna the only way they intervene is
intervene is into something that that
that has already has some buoyancy that
is already occurring yes because the
bank of Japan it seems like figured out
right around 2010 or so yeah they don’t
want to fight the market they want to
let the market kind of shoot its shot
run out of bullets get to a point where
everybody’s like oh my
God crazy okay and and and then bump it
when it’s going your way and then bump
it when it takes a back step think about
what happened in December when did we
hear the boj start shaking the tree
about how they could potentially start
thinking about a policy
shift it was after yields started
falling back and oil prices came down it
was in De it was early December think
about how bonds had bottomed a few weeks
earlier how oil had topped out a few
weeks earlier I mean that was why the
boj started planting the seeds when they
did because they realized they could get
the most bang for their Buck at that
moment in time so that’s why I see oil
prices doing what they’re doing if I’m
going to play this right obviously the
high convexity thing would be to buy an
out-of the- money call right now and you
know I was looking at what happens for
the nine days xpre if you buy like the
66 or
67 6667 calls your max loss is gonna be
like a 100 bucks 200 bucks I mean how
about this but this is a call spread
this is 44 days out right so let’s say
we don’t let’s say we need to have a
little bit more time because oil isn’t
coming in we want to just get some skin
of the game with the j meeting this
week along at the money or along out of
the money call spread buying the 068
selling the 68 and a half again
intervention type of play not the tasty
methodology whatsoever Tom would
absolutely be saying don’t do this but I
think he’s in a meeting right now so the
inmates run the Asylum 133% probability
of profit Max profit 581 and a quarter
against a Max loss of negative
43.75 so there’s your madman condition
Dyan 10 times Max profit rela to but I’m
second guess so here’s the thought I’m
having as I’m as I’m creeping in this
direction is what if Japan likes a
weaker Yen they don’t like a weaker Yen
they don’t like a weaker Yen so makes
Toyotas cheaper makes here’s the thing
makes their it’s a bump to their it’s an
export economy it’s you know they’re
never going to be the reserve currency
they know that the dollar already is is
UN is UN the only thing that’ll wreck
the dollar is the United States no one
else is a threat to the dollar no matter
what anybody thinks so take a little
discount and and and throw some Toyotas
around and have a good time like what’s
the
problem so I think this is really the
key
historically that would be a
very potent argument for Japan because
you would say here’s an export based
economy they could use a cheaper
currency that makes the export cheaper I
mean the Chinese are famous for keeping
their currency weak to to to you know
it’s mercantilism 101 the problem so the
difference it’s not even a problem the
difference in Japan is Japan figured out
quite a long time ago the near Shoring
idea because they are the oldest
population in the world they know they
can’t build these things in
Japan so this is a difference that that
their number one issue is population
collapse not uh meaning that Toyota
factories are in Mexico and Canada and
the United
States this to so Toyota is producing
and selling in dollars from the
beginning exactly exactly and so it’s a
different story it’s more like if the
Yen
collapses consumer purchasing power goes
W with it and Japan Imports 60% of its
food and Lord knows what basically food
cost with and food cost and energy costs
go up to the roof and the only thing
that’s keeping Japanese inflation high
at this point is food mhm imported food
is overwhelmingly the reason Japan has
inflation anywhere north of even 1%
never mind and what does the going for
that that why on Earth what’s what’s the
reason to own Yen what’s the best
fundamental reason to own Yen at any
price I think the reason value
proposition for for a Yen falling
falling rates if you if you are going to
have rate Cuts this year of some amount
it’s just there is only one major
Central Bank that’s not
cutting only one and that’s Japan and so
basically higher longer has been banging
on the end all year yes yeah look at
what happened with the yen in 20 uh 22
as the r hike Cycles were going it got
absolutely
demolished the only the only kind of
major yen optick that was tradable and
that I did very well with was the tail
end of last year so as I was buying easu
to have exposure to uh riscon rally
through European stocks the other thing
I was doing was buying Yen because rate
cut expectations were getting built into
everything yields were falling and the
Yen’s kind of Perpetual 30 40y year
yield disadvantage was getting squeezed
tighter to the Yen’s benefit it was a
great buy but of course as soon as the
year turned and the data out of the US
started getting better and those rate
Cuts started to fade out the Yen got
smoked yeah know at 155 356 here in
dollar Yen spot rate the
highs Ilia you’re talking about like
what 160 for the 1990 effectively high
like it’s a nice round
number I feel like when I lived there it
was like a
120 I’m just trying to figure out like
what the impli what the 6j implied rate
would be which I suppose you could
simply do by just flipping dollar gun on
its head that’s close enough
right so
60 two and a half
you know the long call spread thing is
obviously nice but the tasty methodology
way of doing this would be looking at
the the the short putut um vertical and
I’m looking at this 45 days out 67%
probability of profit it’s kind of right
in the neighborhood of where we like
things you know
603 64 65 anywhere around there uh I
kind of like the long call spread idea
better because it’s defined it’s a much
smaller defined loss and it’s better
risk reward yeah right because here
we’re effectively saying like
the this is saying the rally is gonna
stop the other side of it is like I just
want to have something on the table in
case they
intervene and with oil doing what doing
have much for right because like just
look at it here like if we were to do
the short call vertical right now in the
45 days out just at the money 66%
probability profit Max profit 250 Max
loss 375
that’s okay that’s actually pretty good
for a 66 probability of profit The
Profit versus loss is pretty good all
things
considered but you’re you’re calling the
low then doing it this
way I like taking a longer duration
going out of the money that’s why I was
looking at the long call vertical if you
go out to the uh July contract here the
6jn contract 72 days from expiration and
we can do like a 69 A5 60
so it’s only 133% but Max loss is 62
bucks and it’s more than double the max
profit potential so you talk about the
convexity of the trade you’re taking a m
this is obviously I don’t think it’s
going to go to dou 069 but we’re just
hoping for the market to move up now one
of the problems with this someone in the
chat’s probably saying I don’t have it
open but Chris if the Yen goes up
doesn’t that mean volatility is going to
come off the board because the Market’s
been going down as B has risen and so if
you’re long and out of the money call
isn’t it possible that the crush
inv prevents the call from realizing its
full potential yes
absolutely so Dylan I say all that to
say this the point you brought up
earlier I think it went went on noticed
but it didn’t go in the back of my head
the
Condor may be the best way to do this
quite frankly because you can bracket it
out on either end yes maybe even the
strangle here quite frankly if you’re
GNA do it wide enough because of where
volatility is but you can blow the
strangle out wide you can give yourself
somewhere in the neighborhood of 70%
probability of profit you can have the
max profit that’s a little bit more than
it was if you were simply doing the
short put
spread and if V comes back in and the
price rallies you should benefit from
this as well there’s a different few
different ways to skin this cat I prefer
not to do short spread right now given
the price action if it’s an intervention
trade I’d rather do the long out- of the
money call spread but the most practical
way of playing this market right now
with an ivr of 81.9 maybe just doing the
sell the strangle which is I’m sure
something that snoff would be thinking
about right now when you look at market
like this uh at Dylan yeah I mean this
is old school straight up snafi and
tasty trade right especially with an 81
on the
IV especially with an 81 will we see a
intervention this week Ilia I think
you’re on the no side for now I’m on the
no side for now but if it happens and
you have one of these flyers on you can
benefit I’m going to take a look at this
a little bit more later today guys we
have about 13 minutes left in today’s
session we were mentioning oil prices
Commodities here are not exactly coming
back in even though we’ve seen some of
these geopolitics come off the table
Dylan as our resident oil export who was
selling calls last week and caught the
big down move and even held through the
overnight tension I’m I’m sitting here
it’s not I’m losing right to tr this I’m
not losing a lot but again I am
uh no longer making money it just it’s
it’s it’s a it’s a it’s a minor Rock I
still hold on to
uh the this thing’s going
lower do you have a specific price in
mind that you see as a Tapout Point like
hey if the market crosses the April High
the high that we had on Thursday night
last week when Israel was launching
those attacks in the Iran the high the
high is the one that you’re looking at
which is I’ll call something around 85
plus or minus okay I think that makes
sense right if we CLE gets north of 85
I’ll be like you know I better pack this
thing in and be happy with the remember
I had that I did whatever was a two-day
option off of that Friday made a killing
you guys then scolded me for being uh
you know well you didn’t scold me but
you were like you were like you know you
can stay in there you I was a little I
was I make a couple bucks I’m like I
gotta take it I know but then I but then
I reloaded and then on the reload it’s
gone nowhere but but the reload you were
going to Rel anyway right had you
reloaded with and I added duration right
I just bought exactly because if you had
done the shorter duration the trade
would be a lot more lopsided right now
yes no no I would have lost everything
because if I just was rolling you
know click like because the first outing
after Friday was an was a two-day think
I picked up 48
hours and I got lucky obviously because
it just got blasted and so then I
cleared out of there but um yeah the re
I wouldn’t be surprised if it if if if
this goes better come 24 hours from now
my trade or the price of oil the trade
and uh and the price of oil would be
lower um it seems
like it seems like uh if we look at the
way that markets responded to us PMI
data earlier this week There’s a very
clear kind
of markets want bad data sort of thing
going on
and when that PMI number came out I mean
much weaker than expected dollar got
rocked stocks rallied it was
unmistakable it happened at the minute
that the data came out it was like right
there you couldn’t ignore it
so when you have this GDP number
tomorrow if you get a sense that
okay this number even if it’s a little
bit softer by the way is giving us an
economy that’s on a trend that’s hotter
than what the FED wants and I think it’s
going to have a really hard time being
meaningfully disappointing in that sort
of relative sense it it might miss the
headline but it can afford to miss the
headline by a
little the dollar is going to
run and crude oil is priced in dollars
so I think I think you you might get
some some relief here it seems for what
it’s worth that this has rounded
something like a top it’s still holding
at support like immediate support uh but
it it’s clearly struggling on its
attempts to bounce off that support
which suggests that yes it recognizes
that there’s support but it doesn’t
really have the oomph to do anything
about it so it seems to be just waiting
for a
reason I will point out technically the
2134 uh EMA envelope support starting
after the close on February 8th every
dip since then into that envelope has
been caught we have been catching along
there you go back to the uh weekly no
that switched to a different product
ticker we go here and back down to the
two we go back to the highs that we had
in June 2 September 23 and like we’re
still bouncing on that area too that’s
that yellow line cutting across the
screen diagonally on The Daily time
frame um the point is that you know oil
hasn’t really given it up just yet
tomorrow is an interesting day too
because with the GDP report there’s a
little bit of a Divergence that I see in
the expectations like the consensus
forecasts are 2.1 to
2.4 Atlanta fed has it pegged at
2.7% and they’ve been pretty accurate
they’ve been a good forecasting Bunch
recently
they missed but they been a lot more
accurate than other interesting range
there I was looking at the uh the three
big nowcasts uh Atlanta New York and um
St Louis St Louis St Louis so bad St
Louis is terrible St Louis is at
1.7 um New York is at
2.2 Atlanta revised from 2.9 to 2.7
today so there’s there’s a spread there
um there’s always a spre there St Louis
had the had the economy Contracting in
the third quarter when we put up a near
six% growth rate so I be like yeah that
that’s just that’s also the thing for me
like let’s look at the most recent
quarter which was the most accurate one
okay that’s the one you should trust
immediately because they’ve done the
fine tuning to the model and so when I
see St Louis people like oh the St Louis
fed says we’re in recessions like but
they haven’t gotten any of the calls
remotely accurate for the past few years
so you can’t trust the model no the
model’s no good uh but there’s there’s
clearly a rage is what I’m saying but
when I think when you look
at the central tendency in the fed’s
summary of economic projections right
that I think is is the key that tells
you that the FED sees a central tendency
of 2 to
2.4% average for the year the median is
2.1 now if the median is 2.1 and the
central tendency is 2 to
2.4 then the range skews low it skews
closer to two than it does to 2.4 just
arithmetic there uh which means that if
you get a number out of this GDP report
which is expected at 2.5 so outside the
fed’s central 10 see if you get let’s
say
2.4 maybe even
2.3 that’s a hotter economy than the FED
wants to
see because if the median is 2.1 and the
spread is 2 to 2.4 it’s skewing to 2.1
2.2 so you get
2.4 fed’s got to rethink this whole
three Cuts thing well they’ve already
started to do that well we start to get
that that talk already but in the market
reaction we’re getting a
hike no but
that’s your Pal’s your pal and Williams
comment last week yeah prior to the
Blackout Window going into effect to
effectively temper the Market’s
expectations so that if you get a hot
GDP and a hot pce the market doesn’t say
oh God what’s the FED gonna do that
they’re gonna go oh you know the FED
recognized that this is a possibility so
we don’t need to fully freak
out that said though bonds are already
breaking down again and you mentioned
that the central pendency for the FED
because of the recent Su of economic
projections is actually in the lower is
more geared towards the low end and is
certainly below the Atlanta fed’s
looking right now so if it’s a 2.5 or
2.6 or let’s say it’s the Atlanta fed’s
2.7% tomorrow bonds here if it’s ZN
which is kind of like just bouncing
around and gliding around the lows but
still no higher high in this recent
series of swings since the start of
April ZB already started to go down the
pipe we see that break today you look at
UB it’s a very similar situation the
long end of the curve is getting hurt
more than the short end of the Curve
I mean that makes a good deal of sense
you could also see in the bond auctions
that kind of kind of hit me today when I
was looking at the fiveyear auction
results which were not great they
weren’t good at all they were bad but
they weren’t like terrible you tailed
through by about point4 basis points the
bid to cover ratio drops the indirects
fall the directs fall um it’s the
largest fiveyear auction on record so
seeing a little bit of softer demand
wouldn’t be a surprise but over the last
few weeks you’ve noticed that the the
the note and Bill auctions have been
fine the short end of the curve and as
you move into the belly they get a
little bit worse and then the long end
of the curve results have not been good
at all and you talk about shifting term
premium milia and we talk about possible
reinflation and the economy is not
slowing
down and that’s the situation that just
demands higher yields plain and simple
particularly at the long end of the
curve the FED doesn’t need to do
anything ZT doesn’t go anywhere right
it’s stuck but ZN and ZB need to reflect
the new world so GDP tomorrow oil is not
breaking down yet and bonds are not
bouncing even though all the
geopolitical risk is
off I I I got a hard I know Tom says he
likes the bonds here Dylan I just don’t
see it still am I missing something see
I don’t see it yeah I don’t know I we
had three minutes left and I would just
like to note that meta is getting face
pounded absolutely face pounded here I
have it down
at four
you know I have this chart up on trading
view right now and I had 6j and dollar
Yen spot rates on there at the same time
and so I just clicked to meta but it
kept on the dollar end spot rate so I
have a tick on my screen for 155 and I
thought meta’s share price was down at
155 right now so I
almost I was like oh Ilia you’re you’re
paying for dinner next time by the way
holding NDA shorts and I made you to go
have a conversation with my wife about
our uh retire savings but no metat at
43604 down 11.64% after hour ex here
honey we’re going to we’re having hot
dogs tonight’s house that’s it San
Francisco it’s hot dogs and matah for
dinner for the failable future
um look they guided lower is the big
problem here the numbers itself it’s so
interesting how this Market you see it
with Tesla and with with meta now the
street did not care about the first
quarter
the street cares about what’s happening
in the
future so guidance from Microsoft may be
more important than their actual
earnings results probably actually gu
especially especially for Microsoft as
like the the Cradle of the AI
civilization as it were and Microsoft
down too about 1.4% after hours here
40238 on the chart and you could see
this is an AI bellweather at least for
Consumer adoption
yeah as you like to say not madiz levels
matter a lot you can see it coming to
play here right around 410 4:15 going
all the way back to where we in March
and then what do we do we rally up there
overnight yesterday and we can’t take it
out I’m just going to draw this
little there’s your little swing Zone
resistance support support support and
resistance and we failed right around
that you know 410 415 area again so
Microsoft here right this is why week
long even with the the the rally you
know I myune has been yeah it’s nice but
do you trust it it feels like a bull
trap because we have not cleared out the
former levels of support that have
become resistance in every single market
so as a bull someone who believes in the
mark long-term still given the forward
return stats of what typically happens
in markets like these I want to just
survive the next five trading days I
don’t want to see 4964 cleared out in es
I don’t want to see a new low in NQ I
don’t want to see a new Lo and
Russell name of the game this week is
survival Ilia as a bear you guys got to
get it done this week we need to we need
to uh get we need to get this thing
together if I’m looking at the market on
Thursday May 2nd and the S&P is still
trading at 5,000 550 5100 and it’s not
through the lows I’m I’m gonna get
worried right because the the Bulls say
to themselves hold on a second you just
gave us World War III threats you just
gave us spiking bond yields just gave us
declining rate cut odds you just gave us
companies that are getting killed by
earnings even when they’re good not just
companies but you’ve taken you’ve
punched the a consumer adoption of AI in
the nose in terms of the rate the rate
of adoption I should say which by the
way I mean you know this my my my song
and dance on this whole AI thing for
months now has been the market is
trading as though this is all realizable
on a global scale tomorrow but actually
before the promise of all this actually
starts to pay dividends like I’ll see
you in like 10
years which means the three of us at
least have a job for the next 10 years
before they get uh you know AI or IL
AI yeah I’m just gonna end the show here
in the immortal words of Sean Price I
work so hard this
stupid I think hear the Billy Madison
quote like what you’ve just said was
incoherent in Rambling we’re all dumber
for listening to it and with that over
time is now out of time you’re welcome
for that tibit at the end I’ve been
Chris Veo man in Orange has been Elias
spivac the man in blue Dylan Radigan uh
we are not here tomorrow we are off
tomorrow we’ll have a video on demand so
be sure to come back we’ll replay
today’s episode so if you actually heard
this and you want to hear us again
that’s a good time to do it if not don’t
come back we’ll see you on Monday for
the next episode of overtime good luck
trading the rest of this week we’ll see
you on Future’s Power Hour but next we
get more Ilia with macro
money coming up next on tasty live
stay tuned
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and macro event risk is back welcome
everybody this is macran I’m milus pack
head of global macro here at Tasty live
and you know I’m excited because we’ve
been waiting for some economic news of
weight and substance to give these
markets something to really chew on and
we are finally going to get
it we are looking down the barrel of the
release of first quarter US GDP data uh
coming at us uh in less than 24 hours
and what we are asking ourselves of
course
is would do anything or will the markets
not care and if it does
something how should we think about it
what are the
expectations how might the results
influence the
markets and is this something that has
staying
power so what we’re going to do here is
we’re going to look at what this number
is expected to be what the range of
outcomes might look like
and then really focus on the price
action Dynamics what do the markets want
to
see and are they going to even care what
comes out will it be
impactful and then from that
perspective attempt to kind of Benchmark
a trading
strategy around what seems to be the
path of least
resistance so let’s start here
with just the Baseline
expectations we’re looking for the
annualized GDP growth rate so this is
not the year- on-year growth rate this
is what happens if you take the
quarterly growth rate uh quarter on
quarter and then you extrap it into an
annualized rate basically saying that
the annual growth rate were every
quarter to be like this quarter would be
this so what we’re looking at here is a
climb down a little bit in fact the
second consecutive quarter of climb down
we had a really blistering uh set of GDP
numbers toward the middle of last year
uh as a matter of fact
4.9% in the third quarter of last year
then a step down to 3.4 in the fourth
and this is seen as another step down to
2.5 for the first quarter
now why do we
care should we
care I would argue emphatically yes we
should certainly
care and here’s the
logic if we look at the way that the
stock market broadly speaking as a kind
of
bellweather a kind of barometer for risk
appetite across financial markets if we
look at the way that it’s behave and the
way that it has reflected overall
willingness from investors to take
Market
risk willingness to buy stocks
willingness to buy things like Bitcoin
or Commodities or corporate bonds or
anything that isn’t cash
or ultimate safety like the treasury
bond and of course in relative
terms we can see that the motivation has
been the path of
expectation for Fed rate cuts and this
makes
sense it makes sense because if you’re
an
investor and you’re faced with
oceans of
uncertainty in this particular moment in
time you have one of the most aggressive
rate hike Cycles in 40
years and you’re waiting to see what the
cumulative impact is going to be
especially at a time when outstanding
debt is the biggest it’s ever been
globally both
public and the private sector
you have now not one but two critical
Wars occurring in uh in key choke points
for Commodities one in the Russia
Ukraine situation one in the Israel
Hamas
situation and those are just the big
eye-catching ones you have an election
year in the
US with potentially significant
consequences for economic policy de
globalization is is gaining momentum
China can’t seem to get up off the mat
having reopened after co uh lockdowns
and that’s the second largest economy in
the world so what does that mean for
Global growth so there is no shortage
of
possible
issues so as an investor how do you
distill all of that well what you might
say
is if the
money if the cost of credit is going to
be cheaper in the future well then I can
feel much more comfortable about taking
Market risk in this environment because
worst case scenario I lose some money
and borrow it back at lower
rates if you are then looking at what
the FED began to signal in
November as a matter of fact November
1st was that policy
meeting and you hear the FED saying we
think we’re done hiking rates we think
the next move is going to be a cut
that’s music to your ears so it’s not
surprising that as we start to see the
buildout in interest rate Cuts late
October early November going into that
fed meeting and certainly
thereafter risk appetite thrives and
stocks start going up
the FED defines what it means by its cut
expectations in late December and says
we’re looking for three Cuts in
2024 by the time the calendar year turns
the market has already veered well past
that and is calling
for something on the order of
six 150 basis points with even a little
bit opt of optionality to go
further and then us economic data starts
coming out repeatedly better than
expected we start to see hotter jobs
numbers we start to see hotter inflation
numbers and what starts to happen is the
markets begin chipping away and how many
rate cuts the FED can actually afford to
do in that
environment you can see that
here what’s interesting is that stocks
continue to levitate through this effort
until they don’t and so the question
becomes well what’s different
here well here is the fed’s Baseline 75
basis
points until you get here the markets
are expecting more easing than the FED
is benchmarking and so the underlying
story still is we’re going to get more
easing money is going to be cheaper than
what the central bank is saying they’re
going to have to make that adjustment
eventually until they do risk
on because the gravitational force
pulling markets up here is still the
promise of relatively cheaper
money and of a Fed that will have to
eventually Mark a pivot that way or at
least that’s what investors
think what occurs right here and this
just happens to be the March 20th fed
meeting is that the Market Outlook flips
on the hawkish side of fed
expectations you get the 61 basis points
baked in for the year which is two cuts
and a less than 50% shot at a third one
and the moment that shot at a third one
gets less than
50% in fact within 24 hours of the FED
policy announcement reiterating they
looking for 75 basis points or three
cuts which is March the
20th within 24 hours of that the market
stop and start going the other way you
can see that right
here in this context what the markets
want
ostensibly out of GDP data and economic
data in general is weaker
data because if the data is weak that
would mean more rate cuts and that would
start to move this back in the opposite
direction which is of course at least
looking at the evidence here what the
markets want to
see we got a preview of how this works
in Spades just earlier this
week with we saw much weaker than
expected PMI data out of the
us as you can see here the composite
coming in
50.9 much softer than the 52.2 expected
and in fact a four month
low weaker on Services weaker on
manufacturing a do report all around so
what did the markets
do here’s the S&P 500 when that did that
came
out here was the previous swing High we
came down to digest into it came up to
essentially right where that swing high
is what catalyzes it to puncture through
this is a
15minute
chart here’s the PMI
data we sail higher thereafter
here’s the
NASDAQ same story here’s the preceding
swing High We digest in range reset the
even here data comes out we punch higher
We rise since
then so the way this works is very
clearly on display the price action is
showing us what the markets want to see
they want to see Soft Data that brings
more cuts into the picture as it happens
when that PMI data came out we saw an
instant adjustment in fed policy ODS now
of course it it wasn’t the biggest
adjustment in the world because you
would need more than a single piece of
economic data to do all that but if we
take a look at the way that the
markets reacted as soon as that data
came we went from 30 two basis points
baked
in
instantly down to
38 so the the market immediately
adjusted to something less hawkish
stocks went up dollar went
down so this is our Benchmark this is
why we
can now what’s the likelihood that this
number deviates from from
2.5% well there’s a range of outcomes
here on
display the Atlanta fed’s GDP now
forecast which they call a nowcast that
essentially takes an incoming economic
data puts it through a model and gives
us expectations for uh what GDP might be
as of today is at 2.7 percent so we can
see here north of where the markets are
expecting you can see there’s the market
range right
there if we look at the fed’s St Louis
branch and their
model they’re a lot more on the
pessimistic side of things they think
it’s going to be
1.7% in the red is that GDP now uh model
that’s what you see here uh and in the
blue is the St Louis feds Now cast the
New York fed the other big fed branch
that does this and admittedly they
haven’t updated it since the
19th they’re somewhere in the middle at
2.2% so clearly even at the FED there is
a broad range of possibilities now the
Atlanta fed model has been performing
better recently it’s been closer but
that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t
stumble and it doesn’t mean that
economic conditions can’t change such
that the other models are more
telling which is to say that from 1.7 to
2.7 there’s quite the spread
here now if we look at the way that US
economic data has performed relative to
expectations what we find is that first
of all here’s how we lost all of those
rate Cuts we can see here data since the
beginning of the year has been
increasing performing better than
expected this is U an index from City
group and the further it goes into
positive territory the more the data is
tending to outperform relative to
forecasts at zero the realized results
and forecast would be basically in
line but what’s important here seems to
be how this is actually trending and
what we see is when we put a simple
20-day moving average on it which is
essentially Just A month’s worth of data
5 days in a week about four weeks in a
month that’s crudely a 20-day running
aage and so what we see is when it when
the index pushes through the
monthly Dynamic the monthly sort of
average here it tends to have follow
through in that direction so we can see
here when it breaks the 20-day here we
get a period of data deteriorating when
it breaks higher
improving
deteriorating even when it gets stuck in
a Range a a a break through this seems
Seems telling we got it here again on
the upside here again on the downside
and we’ve just done it one more time now
this does look a bit range adjacent but
certainly can’t be ignored that once
again we’ve moved through the 20-day
moving average and so maybe we’re
starting to see economic data biased in
the direction of weaker surprises here
so perhaps what we’re looking at
is something
like the risk of a
Miss now to contextualize what that
means and what kind of a Miss is good
bad and what does that
mean we can see that in the summary of
economic projections that the FED
delivered to us in March the same one
where they reiterated their call for
three Cuts consider here that’s a rate
of
4.6% this year the average fed funds
rate now is
5.33 that’s the middle of their target
range of five and a quarter to five and
a half if we have a range of
4.6 that’s a change of 73 basis points
so that’s three
Cuts
so there’s those three cuts that we were
just talking about we can see that this
is contingent on a median GDP growth
rate this year of
2.1% and the central tendency is
somewhere in a range of 2 to 2.4%
now if that central tendency is 2 to
2.4 and the median is 2.1 the median is
just the
middle not the average but the
middle 2.1 is the middle in a range of
two to 2.4
then the expectations here skew toward
the lower end toward 2.0
2.1 rather than let’s say 2.3
2.4 so ostensibly any number here on GDP
that comes out at 2.4 or hotter maybe
even 2.3 but that’s a little bit of a
stretch that would be a meaningful Miss
versus the 2.5 expected but even if we
miss a
little and land at
2.4 in line at 2.5 or
hotter we are looking at an economy that
is fundament Mally trending
stronger than where the Fed was when it
said we’re going to need three
Cuts because if we were on a pace to
2.1%
growth then the FED would look like it
makes
sense but if we’re on a pace to 2.5 or
even 2.4 the upper end of range
here then three Cuts look a little bit
of a St
and so from that
perspective any range of outcomes that’s
2.4 or hotter look like they are the
kind of thing that would underpin the
recent evaporating of Federate cut odds
and give us the kind of thing that
stocks don’t
like as a
response now besides stocks there is of
course course the US dollar which has
moved very cleanly in line with fed
policy expectations when there were more
Cuts being baked in the dollar fell as
the number of cuts started to diminish
the dollar has been
rising it’s had a little bit of a back
step here in the wake of those PMI
numers but if we get a GDP number here
that endorses the idea of a more hawkish
fed then what this is going to look like
is a pull back of
sords where this was resistance this
was a breakout we’re pulling back here
and perhaps with the strength of this uh
GDP number if it goes the way that we’re
talking about
here
bounces in this
direction the other important thing to
keep in mind here is of course the
Japanese Yen and that’s because not only
are we going to get this GDP number we
are also going to get a monetary policy
announcement from the bank of Japan
where everybody will look for them to
say something about the fact that the
Yen has crumbled to the lowest level in
34 years against the US dollar and
that’s largely thanks to Rising rates we
can see here that when we had these rate
cuts
getting built out once the move really
started to gain momentum here especially
uh of course lined up with the stocks
rally in October late October early
November the Yen
surged as these rate Cuts started to
diminish so too did the yet now for
Japanese authorities this is not the
best of all possible things it of course
complicates their problems with
inflation because it makes the yen uh
less
able to have purchasing power of foreign
goods and Japan Imports most of its
energy Imports most of its food it is
after all an island so this would make
inflation go up this is not what they
want to see so if the GDP numbers eat
further into rate Cuts or at least
underpin the idea that we’re going to
get one maybe cut this year rather than
three and the Yen gets another shove
lower than when the bank of Japan then
meets you might get something like
conversation about their discomfort with
these levels which might set the stage
for them to intervene in markets as
they’ve done before so potential snapb
here could be
violent and that is what we’re looking
at here this that’s macro money for
today thanks very much for joining as
ever I am here with this show Monday
through Thursday right after overtime a
show that I co-host with Chris Veo and
Dylan rigan looking at the Wall Street
close and what it might mean going
forward I am also later today and every
Wednesday on the price of Truth with
Victor Jones his great new show back on
with Chris on Fridays for futures Power
Hour back on with Victor and Tom for
first call on Sunday days writing for
the news and insights portion of tasty
live.com and opining sporadically on the
platform formerly known as Twitter at
ilas speack thanks very much for
watching see you
tomorrow looking for a better broker and
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trading options see you inside
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is in reference to the option strike
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all right welcome back tasty crypto show
I’m Ryan Grace he’s mad Mike Martin it’s
Wednesday April 24th Episode 23 23
already yes sir when did we start doing
this about 23 episodes ago M wow wow two
shows a week coming at you 25 minutes of
fire are you ready I’m always ready all
right how are you sir I’m doing great
it’s uh Springtime in Chicago we have
some rough weather coming in but this
weekend it’s gon to be the 80s beautiful
yeah any fun weekend plans I’ve got no
weekend plans man just trying to make it
through the week here and uh we’ll see
if we can do that but just taking a
quick look around the board I know we
don’t talk about this all that often
since this is the crypto show but um you
know really red from what I can see here
equities down bonds down Commodities
down in terms of crude oil you’ve got
gold down bitcoin’s down everything’s
down Facebook’s down or yeah Facebook is
down huge if you caught those earnings
so we’ll see um you know there is at
times a pretty strong positive
correlation between crypto and what
happens with the rest of the world right
I I don’t think that’s any surprise um
people will say oh you know you this in
your portfolio as a diversifier I think
you do I think there’s potential you
know upside returns there obviously that
um that this diversifies uh or adds that
component to but when you have a selloff
when volatility picks up in the markets
you typically see you know it spill over
into crypto as well we’re seeing that
here today yeah and you know these are
just healthy markets as I look at them
um my father gets frustrated on every
down day but that’s not how it works
yeah well can’t win them all you can’t
win them all if you could win all we all
be billionaires by now but you can’t
Mike I want to talk about a concept here
today on the show or maybe more so you
came up with today’s topic so you want
to talk about a concept on the show
we’re going to get into the details of
tokenomics explain what that means um
how we think about it we’re going to
break down the differences between a
cryptocurrency and a token the different
types of tokens that exist out there
some basic stuff but I think it’s a
great place to start we’ve also got a
new little segment that we’re going to
add to the show here called ask tasty
crypto and you guessed it we’re going to
answer a question so little Q&A session
if you do want to ask a question on the
show um you can email us support tacy
crypto.com you can hit me up hit M up
Ryan at Tasty crypto Mike at Tasty
crypto shoot us an email follow us on
Twitter all that good stuff also got the
live chat open here on YouTube so if
you’re watching on YouTube Pop something
in the chat and with these questions
feel free to get as personal okay well
um we’ll let you handle that side of it
but but sure um there’s no question I
won’t answer fair enough let’s kick it
off tokenomics explained uh maybe to
start with what the hell is token
tokenomics you ready for this yeah what
is this we have tokens okay and we have
economics plow them together and you get
tokenomics okay so tokenomics is
important because without tokenomics
what are cryptocurrencies it’s like
buying a stock without having any idea
what the stock is about um if they make
make money how they make money where
they’ve been historically what community
is involved just kind of like the board
sure um so tokenomics really gives us
visibility into the health of both
crypto coins and tokens um crypto can be
confusing I know I was confused years
ago when I learned about tokens coins
and cryptocurrency right about if you’re
brand new it’s very confusing because
it’s all the same but it’s different
what are we talking about cryptocurrency
is on top underneath cryptocurrency we
have coins right it’s a hierarchy of
sorts and then underneath coins we have
tokens so cryptocurrencies ENC capules
all forms of crypto um and it’s divided
into a coin and into a token okay that’s
like your term then you’ve got these two
categories yeah so let’s talk about
coins let’s talk about crypto currency I
think you’ve really got to key in on the
currency aspect here that’s what’s
important to me and I think that’s what
kind of you know stands out or that’s
that like bald moment when you’re
talking about this what is a coin versus
a token a coin is the product of what’s
called a consensus mechanism but perhaps
we don’t need to go into that right now
okay a coin is the medium of exchange
for a blockchain okay um and when I say
blockchain I’m talking Bitcoin is a
blockchain uh ethereum is a blockchain
some people say the blockchains but
there’s different you know it’s not the
blockchain there’s many different
there’s hundreds of different
blockchains and there’s thousands of
different tokens so a coin you can think
of as like it’s a network right the
Bitcoin Network the ethereum network
almost like like you can think of the
internet right sure and on top of the
internet you could build web two apps
but on top of these blockchains you can
build decentralized applications web
three apps web 3 apps and these apps are
called the the product of these apps how
the how you know you you interact with
these different protocols they have
their token okay so sticking with coins
for a second we have a few of those
blockchain networks here at the bottom
of the screen layer ones if you will
we’ve got salana Bitcoin ethereum
Litecoin I think the best known
cryptocurrency is obviously Bitcoin the
first that’s what we’re talking about
when we talk about a native coin native
to that blockchain the cryptocurrency on
that blockchain it’s not that there
aren’t others that or in a sense that
there’s tokens on the Chain but this is
that pure value mechanism on the Chain
this is the value transfer mechanism so
if I’m going to send value across the
Bitcoin Network I’m going to do that
through Bitcoin the cryptocurrency or
the coin if I’m going to pay fees to use
a decentralized application that runs on
top of ethereum I’m going to pay those
Network fees or those gas fees in eth
the native cryptocurrency of that
blockchain that’s the really important
thing to understand beyond that we have
tokens what’s a token and how is this
different from a coin so a token um well
first of all let’s back up just a little
bit here so Bitcoin vers ethereum okay
okay tokens are almost 50% of all tokens
at least 50% are associated with the
ethereum network the other ones are
divided up between salana a few other
networks that are called proof of stake
um the Bitcoin network runs on proof of
work okay this sort of this was the
first Network everybody knows Bitcoin
it’s the oldest um but they don’t have
the capability to natively store code
right so code is they call them smart
contract
um in terms of comparing it to what’s
happening on ethereum right so a smart
contract is all tokens have what’s
called a uh a decentralized application
and there’s a front end right so Unis
swap is a decentralized exchange all
these Protocols are the websites are
front ends to interact with the smart
contract so when we’re talking tokens
we’re talking blockchains that can store
smart contracts because you can’t build
a platform or host a smart contract on
bitcoin because Bitcoin doesn’t na allow
it there’s some workarounds that are
happening now yeah there’s some some
upgrades some improvement some Evolution
occuring but yeah I think of the token
then as existing on the blockchain like
we have written here on this on the
slide but it runs on top of it it is
that’s kind of how I think about it in
my mind at least it’s on top of that
blockchain Network compared to the
underlying cryptocurrency which is the
value transfer mechanism on the network
itself or is is native to that and the
token I mean tokens can be created like
you said there’s thousands and thousands
of tokens there will be thousands and
thousands more they’re deployed using a
smart contract we’ll get into you know
some of the details around that but what
I want to talk about next is why they
exist in the first
place sometimes it’s just fun mem coins
are fun uh it represents culture in some
sense it represents Community onchain
it’s a way to
participate but when you look at a lot
of the protocols that exist out there I
think you had mentioned or we have here
on the screen we’ve got uniswap we’ve
got a we’ve got
these tokens play a role within that
ecosystem these tokens could be utility
tokens security tokens um well not so
much in an ecosystem but when I think of
a security token we’ll talk about what
that is in just a second it represents
something onchain it could be used for
onchain governance as well these are
decentralized protocols but they have
Dows there is a governance component to
it and this is the role that the token
then might play doesn’t necessarily mean
the token has value itself but given how
this all fits together quite often you
know people find a lot of value embedded
in this so let’s talk about those types
of tokens it’s it’s almost like uh when
we look at things like um like
governance it’s almost like a like a
proxy for the equity Market where if you
have a share of stock you can get a say
in certain things um if you own let’s go
back to Unis SWAT for example so if you
own the majority of those tokens you
could essentially dictate what happens
to the network right yeah I think in the
same way that you know going back to
your analogy when you think about
corporate finance and corporate
governance and and you know the role
that shareholders play in terms of
voting rights if you own a significant
number of shares then you’re likely
going to have a seat on the board you’re
likely going to because you you know
control a lot of the Voting Rights
you’re going to have a say in the
overall operations of the company that
does exist to an extent in these
decentralized protocols so we have the
governance component to it where you
might have voting rights
you’re going to have various proposals
and then if that proposal passes as
everybody that holds these tokens has
the ability to vote on it then it’s
going to be implemented but when you’re
a token holder or if the purpose of the
token is for governance purposes then
that’s going to be part of the role the
other thing that’s interesting here is
just utility token and I think when you
look at most of these you know one of
the components of utility is governance
so we’ve split them out into kind of
three different types but you really
think about it as utility tokens and
security tokens utility sometimes they
can all they can all be tied into one
too yeah it absolutely could be could be
but this is the same thing this is the
reason um one of the the primary reasons
to own a crypto is you have a say in the
network um and this is this can tie into
what we we were talking about before
tokenomics because before you buy a coin
you want to make sure one party doesn’t
have 51% control because they dictate
everything that happens to the future of
the network right so you want to have
you want to have those tokens spread out
you know maybe people they created the
pro protocol at 15% and the other you
know 85 is allocated to um just to
people across the world that’s kind of
an ideal uh scenario so you want to
spread that control out so there’s not
one person if one person for example had
51% uh you know the Bitcoins that are in
existent they could essentially crash
the network this it’s called a 51%
attack yeah it’s not so much
decentralized in that case if just one
or two entities own all of the tokens
right which they could do I don’t know
how much that would costs but it would
cost you know several hundred billions
of dollars to crash the Bitcoin Network
which is not impossible so utility
tokens governance is a function of that
the other token that I want to talk
about here are security tokens and this
has definitely become a theme I think
it’s going to be a larger investment
theme here this cycle when you look at
what’s happening with protocols to
facilitate real world assets you look at
a lot of assets that are moving on chain
but when we talk about security it’s not
so much cryptographic security or making
something secure protecting it this is
Security in the sense of financial
securities tokens that represent real
world assets rwa so you think about that
as a currency equities derivatives that
are tokenized bonds fixed income that’s
tokenized other instruments there the
biggest one being you know everyone
looks at real world assets oh we’re
going to have money market funds that
move on chain you’re going to to get
some yield the biggest real world asset
on chain is the US dollar Bea a stable
coin sure so that’s another way to think
about security tokens and when you think
about a stable coin like usdc on
ethereum ethereum is the blockchain
obviously usdc is a token then that’s
yeah being transferred on top of it and
we use it in this country mainly as a
you know a means a volatility hedge but
these tokens these are worldwide this
gives everybody in the world access to
the ility of the US dollar um in the
future there’s anybody can buy a share
of Amazon it’s very restricted now to
get access to US stocks and a lot of the
world um this democratizes the entire
Financial system and access to it um you
know as we talk about the future of real
estate with nfts I guess that’s a
different subject but not all all too
different and that it allows everybody
to participate and it adds so much
liquidity to the system because there’s
so many more participants in it the
options are just they really take off um
so yeah security tokens especially of
real world assets I think in the next 10
years you know there’s been studies on
tokenization and it’s all astronomical
everyone I’ve seen the potential growth
for tokenization coming up in the next
10 years yeah I think it’s only going to
continue right and um I think if you’ve
got it on your screen when you click on
that it’s it’s kind of bouncing around
on the um the slid I see that it’s all
good um but when you think about that
you know I I really don’t think it’s
much of a step a
jump from where we are today to say that
Securities like Apple stock are going to
be tokenized they’re going to be
represented on chain when you think
about settlement you think about
decentralized exchange automated market
makers facilitating transactions I don’t
think that’s going to be the only way
but I really do think that you’re going
to move from you know what’s a digital
representation today in centralized
databases to you know something where
you’re going to see
you this just exists on chain in terms
of um you know your Apple stock it just
moves around on a blockchain instead of
files between different counterparties
or different clearing firms it’s I mean
the efficiency is hard to ignore it’s
it’s an inevitability to me that in time
you know once everything is straightened
out and the people actually figure out
how to access this and they feel safe um
it will take off unless somehow it it is
completely shut down but
well look I mean like you mentioned this
is the Internet it’s is global you’re
going to have varying degrees of
Regulation and enforcement obviously
we’ve seen that in the US here so
there’s going to be some constraints to
this technology at least early on um as
there are today with the internet right
the internet is not the same for
everybody in every country um but I
don’t think it’s going to go away I
don’t think it can be shut down in that
sense but let’s move on really quickly
let’s talk about you know how these can
be deployed because really anybody can
create a token um you can launch it
you’re going to have to pay gas fees in
order to do this depending on the
network that you’re on you’ve seen the
rise of meme coins um you just wrote an
article about the Bas Network and some
of the the mem coins that exist on base
recommend everybody checking that out at
tacy crypto.com
but how do you deploy a token you’re
going to need a smart contract um
there’s a lot more that goes into this
obviously than what’s up here on the
screen but when you do that you’re going
to decide what is the token’s name what
is the symbol for this token um when you
deploy these sorts of tokens they’re
fungible so you have to have a you know
token standard when we think about
ethereum you have to decide what token
standard you’re going to adhere to an NF
non-f fungible token versus a fungible
token is a non-fungible token is unique
yes it’s a piece of art fungible token
which is the vast major identifier have
been attached to digital art but you
know so we kind of think about an nft is
digital art it’s not nft is just an nft
it’s a nonf funable token one of the use
cases though has been to
kind of create a degree of Rarity or
Providence in a sense when you attach it
to um to digital artwork but I hear what
you’re saying the other things that you
have to decide when you use a Smart
contract to deploy a token is the
overall supply of that token and then
the rules in terms of you know how you
can interact with this how it can be
transferred and so on one thing I want
to hit on before we wrap up this
discussion on tokenomics is something
that’s maybe a bit more applicable to to
trading in the market and so if we we
can jump over to the browser here we’ve
got coin uh coin market cap that we’ve
pulled up and I just want to show where
you can look at some basic details
around Supply because when you’re
trading something it’s really important
to understand what the issuance looks
like um in the same way that you know
think about a a recent IPO a lot of
times companies go public we’ve seen you
know quite often that stock gets pumped
um you know maybe it trades higher than
the initial level whatever it might be
but ultimately there is a lockup period
that ends and there’s more Supply that’s
going to come to the market or the
ability for insiders to
sell that gate opens and you see a
little bit of selling pressure you have
similar situations at times in crypto
when you look at the supply the total
issuance of a token versus what’s
available in the market so I’m just
going to pick something here it might
not be the the best example but this is
where you can see this information we’ll
click on chain link and what I want to
point out on the left hand side here is
you can see the market cap right and
then you can see the circulating Supply
versus the total Supply and what that
fully diluted market cap would look like
or is implied given the current price I
would say everybody should just at least
be aware of this right it’s not
necessarily going to have an impact on
the day-to-day price there are certain
points in time where all of a sudden
there’s going to be a lot more tokens
that are available to trade um there’s
an unlock in a sense and so people might
sell them doesn’t mean that they’re
going to sell them but you could
certainly see selling pressure when
those events occur and so if we just use
chain link as an example you can see
here the circulating Supply what’s in
existence right now that could be traded
is only 58% or almost 59% of the total
Supply so if all of the supply were out
there it would imply a fully diluted
market cap of 14 billion versus the
current market cap of 8 billion 8.6
billion doesn’t mean that this couldn’t
be or shouldn’t be worth 14 billion but
it’s something to be aware of that there
are a lot more tokens for sale in theory
um versus what’s you know being traded
in the market what’s trading hands right
now you can see this information a lot
of different places you can see this in
the tacy crypto
um other platforms as well certainly
here on coin market cap I just wanted to
point that out because it is it is
definitely something that should go into
your overall investment um thesis what
you should be aware of um certainly when
we think about the economics of tokens
this is going to play a role yeah
absolutely and you have to remember that
that crypto tokens are not like stocks
there’s no regulatory approvals anybody
can launch a token so if you’re thinking
about buying a token that um isn’t
mainstream or popular always do some
research on it because there’s a chance
a good chance you know it could be what
they call a a rug pole absolutely so
this stuff is very important all right
moving on from tokenomics want to take a
quick look at uh our ask tasty crypto
question if we can throw the slides back
up here and then we’ll take a quick
check of the markets before we wrap
things up but I thought this was a great
question here um following the recent
Bitcoin having event so we had an email
that came in and is asking you know will
something similar happen
to ethereum and there’s a very quick
kind of straightforward answer to this
but let’s just address this really
quickly here on the show does etherium
have having events programmed into the
code in the same way that Bitcoin no has
having it does not okay yeah and it’s
just really a function of you know what
Bitcoin is answer the question yeah what
the Bitcoin code um you know ethereum is
is similar to bitcoin but also much much
different right um you think about the
consensus mechanism proof of work you
had mentioned earlier when we talk about
Bitcoin proof of stake when you talk
about ethereum but there is no ethereum
having uh there are not the same sort of
Supply Dynamics I believe that it’s
currently deflationary ethereum is in
terms of issuance but uh it could be
inflationary it it has shifted into
those um those zones I suppose at times
but it’s definitely not the same when
you think about Bitcoin as a you know
hard money or store of value so to speak
uh ethereum is much different from an
Investor’s perspective I personally
believe that you want to have uh
exposure to both right we’ve talked
about this on the show before um again
similar but two distinct categories um
of cryptocurrency you know if you think
about Bitcoin as the digital gold
ethereum is kind of like this world
internet sort of computer yeah caliz
like we said before there’s 10,000
different tokens that run a top ethereum
so buy ethereum is like you know buying
the internet and that you can profit you
know if the tokens profit the protocols
work the network is going to work as
well yeah it’s really it is that I think
what’s key is it’s that Network effect
right I mean the kind of my view is um
the value of ethereum is in more and
more applications and more and more
users coming to ethereum when you think
about that from the macro perspective um
I think there are definitely Dynamics in
markets that that play a role as well
right um they’re all positively
correlated for the most part when you
look at crypto if we think that you know
Bitcoin as a store of value as a digital
gold is going to go up because the
dollar is going to get weaker or pick
your your favorite country’s uh currency
and and it’s being debased right if you
believe that um that’s going to continue
then you’re likely going to see higher
crypto prices in in those currencies uh
same thing with with eth but definitely
not being viewed as this kind of digital
gold or store value whereas Bitcoin is
um I think again ethereum is the you
know the internet computer in yeah
they’re completely I mean they’re
completely different in my opinion um
that’s why you have to have exposure it
even divers you know it’s diversifies
your crypto portfolio nobody knows
what’s going to happen but if something
does happen in crypto these two are
going to be leading the pack not as
terms as in price as far as um
adaptivity and yeah for now I mean the
market caps are are two of the largest
the two largest and you know there’s
nothing really indicating that that’s
going to change anytime soon long enough
time period who knows what’s going to
um got an interesting love this comment
here in our YouTube chat Samurai wallet
website seized Founders arrested and
charge with moneya laundering when will
tasty introduce token
mixing I think we’re going to stay away
from token mixing it seems like that
gets you into trouble with um the
highest of powers in some sense right
yeah tornado cash uh ofac sanctioned
we’re trying to stay away from from that
so no token mixing anytime soon but we
do have some cool feat that are coming
to the tasty crypto wallet I can speak
to for a second we’ve got salana coming
soon U we just launched on the polygon
network but we’ve got salana coming soon
we’ve got a complete revamp of the token
details so a lot of new data points
completely different look and feel
that’s going to be fun we’ve got push
notifications coming so that any onchain
activity will notify you right away so
some nice updates coming in the next
couple of weeks token mixing though is
um it’s not on the road map that said
Mike let’s wrap it up and take a look at
our um expected move moves apologies we
were running late to the show got the
wrong date on here but this information
has been updated for today we’ve seen
volatility come in quite a bit even
though you’ve got a little bit of
downside price action here today um you
still have you know eth up over the last
five days though it’s lagged on a
monthly basis but when we look at both
bit excuse me when we look at both
Bitcoin and ethereum know volatility
coming in by about 10% or so so we’re
well off of those highs I think the high
in eth for the year is closer to 85% if
we look at a 30-day implied VA that’s
come in a bit um certainly doesn’t mean
that it’s going to stay there I do think
that you’re going to continue to see
volatility kind of at these levels um
but much smaller expected moves than
what we’ve seen as a function of that so
your weekly range right here this is the
one standard deviation as everybody
knows on tasty live simply a function of
the underlying spot price and the
forward 30-day implied Vall so 64,000
63% implied Vall IV rank is still up
there but you’re looking at about a
$5,500 $5,600 move well off of kind of
that 10 to 11% expected move on the on
the weekly basis right so that’s your
range eth same thing eth is uh you know
clearly trading at higher V so you’re
looking at about a 10% move there and
we’ve been you know we’ve we’ve kind of
been trading around these levels too V
implied vs have come in but realized is
um you know you you’ve seen larger
swings here in the
market what do you make of that Mike you
seem be you seem to be deep in thought
over there I don’t know like I said
before we’re going to be quiet for the
next few months in crypto that’s what
you think that’s what I think okay I’m
always right yeah I’m gonna take the
other side of that and then again shout
out to our uh our one comment question
in the chat if you guys have any
questions hit us up um Ryan tasty
crypto.com Mike tasty crypto.com
dcom AI gon wrong shout out to you love
the name in there but that’s going to do
it for our show we’ll be back back next
Monday I’ll be back with Frank he’ll be
back from wherever he’s camping at and
then Mike glamping sorry glamping
glamorous camping Mike will be back next
Wednesday stay tuned thanks again for
watching have a wonderful rest of your
week thanks guys till then peace
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