Bitcoin Closes Below the 10 Week MA – Bigger BTC Drop Likely Coming To Be Followed by a Bottom
as I talked about last time Bitcoin was
losing the 10 period moving average
momentum turned up here at the support
Zone and we thin that out a little bit
here the support Zone these lows over
here we bounced at that 69,000 59,000
area momentum turned up briefly but then
we got rejection at the 20 period just
below our 50 period which is flattened
out and now curling over so I told you
again you lose a 10 period moving
average we’re going back to test the
lows and probably the 100 period moving
average and maybe even a little bit
lower to the 20 we moving average in the
weekly time frame so again losing the 10
is now bearish rejection off of the 50
and the 20 period just below the 50
there is bearish but Bitcoin is likely
going to move down here and try to find
a bottom maybe around the 100 period or
just below it at the 20 we moving
average in the weekly time frame so
again you have a bearish arrangement of
the moving averages a 10 is below the 20
both are below the 50 but you’re forming
a bull flag so again I think you’re
probably going to try to find a bottom
around here I think you’re going to get
another push down the stock market will
follow but then I think the stock market
will form a bottom and we could bottom
surrounding the fed this week now still
see uh a drop down into you know the 57
58 ,000 level down to the 100 period
here or the 20we moving average the 100
period has risen up to the 59,000 area
where we previously found support again
but we could take it out and move down
again to the 56 uh 57 58,000 area or so
there are 20 we moving averages coming
in there in the weekly time frame again
uh Bitcoin has had three failed attempts
to clear 69,000 that’s this dotted Red
Line right here failed failed fa and
failed now taking us back down towards
the lower boundary of the channel the
the flag pattern and potentially a test
of our 100 period or 20 we almost
equivalent to the 100 period in the
conversion into the weekly time frame
but it uh it’s just uh there’s just
slight differences and the 20 we is just
a little bit lower very close again
we’ll continue to watch the support Zone
here and the 100 period moving average
and the lower boundary of the channel
here and again maybe we plow on through
this level but then get a bottoming tail
you know and end up closing back above
it you know here we push higher got a
topping tail and I’ve drawn the trend
line from uh that uh Peak they’re
excluding the topping tail uh here I’ve
excluded the bottoming tail back over
here so here I’ve included them and it
makes for a rather nice looking channel
so again this is is where I think we’re
likely headed but we’ve lost two
important moving averages this week we
lost a 10 period moving average okay
trading this week we lost a 10 and we
lost the 10 we moving average you lost a
10day and you lost a 10 we we had to
stay above both of those levels in order
to Rally we’re now failing above those
10 period moving averages in the daily
and the weekly time frame so again I
still think it’s possible that Bitcoin
moves to new High uh if we drop down
here we could find a bottom and see the
bull flag play out go up and still form
a higher high in either an a legitimate
breakout above 69,000 staying above it
not dropping back below it or forming
and completing a topping process one or
the other uh again signals that suggest
uh that a topping process likely under
construction the bearish scenario would
be that we drop below the 100 perod and
don’t bounce off of it but we lose this
level stay below we could drop below it
but you got to get back above it for a
bullish scenario you drop below it and
you stay below it you can’t get back
above it then that’s going to be very
bearish 100 period is important because
Bitcoin follows the 100 period moving
average the the 100 period really gives
us the trend the 50 really gives us the
momentum and we’ve lost to 50 so the
momentum has been lost here and we’re
struggling at it we broke it and we’ve
now back tested it and got rejection
there so the momentum is down you got to
get back above that 50 and if we lose
the 100 then you uh will change the
trend so a bearish event this week and
losing the 10 period moving average
that’s that little red line right there
and then closing down losing the 10 week
moving average that’s this little red
line right here and let me just zoom in
Bitcoin just closed had the Sunday close
couple hours ago and for the week
Bitcoin Bitcoin lost 2.82% so down
nearly 3% previously we had dropped but
we recovered dropped below that 10 we
moving average bring it up closer so you
can see it we we lost that 10we moving
average and the prior week as well but
we recovered with a bottoming tail and
we rebounded back up the buyers are down
here the sellers are up here as I’ve
said the sellers have been up here the
buyers have been down here and now uh
the sellers are prevailing in that we’re
closing below the 10we moving average we
were not able to do that the prior week
or the week before that so again this is
bearish if we stay below the 10we moving
average now we dropped below the 10we
moving average over here and that 100
period moving average at that time and
that’s where we bounce so again we’ll be
watching the 100 period below the 100
period is the 20 week now here we hit
the 100 period in the daily but we
didn’t quite reach 20 we we may see the
same thing happen here if we try to
bounce off that 100 day moving average
Bitcoin follows the 100 day moving
average it does now again that 100 day
moving average is right at horizontal
sport we might break it and go a little
bit lower but right here we’re at the
actually uh we are I said the uh 57
58,000 area is actually not 57 it is 56
so I stand corrected pardon me I thought
it was at the 57,000 area it was at uh
just below 56,000 right now uh here on
the 20we moving average so that is going
to be be real uh important support if we
lose that now the bullish scenarios that
we are to eventually build momentum with
the bull flag break above 69,000 never
look back again and get a legitimate
breakout above this peak over here at
69,000 uh the scenario is that we either
break down lose that 100 period in the
daily time frame and continue to drop
and lose the 20 here like we did over
here and again hold below the 10 we Dro
below the 10 over here we lost it we
stayed below it we ended up dropping 52%
before all was said and done from the
highs losing the 20 weeks so again if we
get a bigger sell off we sell off say
with the fed and get a big big sell off
we start losing these levels then again
the top could be in with a lower high
lower low scenario if we remain below
that 10we moving average you got to get
back Above This 10 now okay you got to
get back above the 10 if you’re going to
get a rebound with the bull flag pattern
so again that 100 period if you lose the
100 you lose the 20 we that’s really
bearish if you can bounce off these
levels and get back above the 10 that’s
bullish if you can get back above 69
hold above it never drop back below it
again you got your bull market you go up
here and it fails and you get something
like this where we drop and we pop and
that’s it and you drop and you pop and
that’s it then again you can uh you know
get this uh drop and pop and that could
be it we have a larger uh topping
process on our hands about an expanded
flat where you move Above This High just
above this high and then you come back
and you take up a low down here uh
before you bought them and that’s this
massive expanded flat correction so
again that is very possible if the
bearish scenario plays out here there
are uh uh signals and things that are
suggesting that like the recent break
out of the dollar talked about some
other signals that I’m watching that are
suggesting that we could witness a top
here and if we do is it a lower high
lower
low where we start losing the 100 in the
20 week the 100 in the daily get one
more push higher so again uh watching
the 69,000 level it’s really the the
Line in the Sand but if the bull flag
plays out uh we can see Bitcoin go up
one more time and if we do the S&P 500
move back to fill the Gap at 5200 which
I’ve been talking about I talked about
the S&P in my last update lost a 10-day
moving average and here in the weekly
time frame we’ve lost the 10 we moving
average and uh again we’ll see if we try
to bounce off of it around surrounding
here or if we hold below it you can get
a bigger drop like we did here and here
before getting back above it trying to
rebound or stay below it then again
that’s going to be very very bearish
here we tried to recover went to the 20
got rejection and drop back below the 10
and again a bigger drop 63% the second
time right it again couldn’t get above
that 20 again got rejection and again
eventually move to a new low after that
as well so again uh losing the 10we
moving average losing the 10day moving
average uh this is bearish until we get
back above those levels like I said
you’ve got a shot at a bull flag pattern
if we can bounce surrounding the 100 day
moving average or if we lose it uh you
could try to move towards the 20we
moving average here weekly time frame as
I’ve said this is important that we
break Above This level if you’re to
continue to Rally you got to be able to
break above it and stay above it and
we’ve had three field attempts again as
I’ve talked about every time we’ve uh
had a bare Market or major correction
we’ve broken up to a new high and it’s
been Off to the Races broke up to a new
high Off to the Races broke up to a new
high Off to the Races broke up to a new
high Off to the Races and even right
there we got right here and we broke to
a new high and it failed and we dropped
78% so is that moved down if that if
that if the if the bare Market’s over
that’s the weakest bare Market in
bitcoin’s history markets have been um
you know 809 % there have been three of
them 83 86 and 84% it was only
78% so again if we something like what
we had over here where we
have a failed breakout where we tried to
get above this high after dropping 55%
but the thing failed and we ended up
dropping 78 uh 78% so again watching
this closely again the bullish scenarios
you get above this level and you never
look back and we haven’t so far been
able to do that when I talked about the
20 period being at the 57,000 level I
was thinking of critical mass uh earlier
when I talked about at the 20 is at
56,000 Critical Mass is at 57,000 so
there’s a Confluence of support there
and then you have the uh rainbow cloud
here at
60,000 and again this 59 60,000 area and
we bounced off of that level previously
I told you if that breaks it’s going to
be bearish but then you have critical
mass right there right at 57,000 so so
again can we bounce we bounced off of it
previously right there okay and we broke
it over here broke uh the rainbow cloud
but bounced off critical mass so again
I’ll be watching these levels closely
you start losing the rainbow cloud you
start losing critical mass then that’s
going to be bearish and then you have
the risk of having uh this happen where
you get this 52% drop if you can bounce
off these levels and that’s going to be
bullish and you got your bull flag
uh where you can bounce out these levels
and again below critical mass and the
rainbow cloud is the 20 we moving
average as I mentioned
previously but again if these levels
hold and the balance of power remains
positive then again the Bulls remain in
power we start losing these levels you
start losing the 100 day and the 20 we
moving average as well moving below
these levels here then again would be
very very bearish uh you could drop
below the 100 period but but you better
bounce back up and get back above it if
you hold below it it’s bearish bounce
off of it it’s bullish and that’s really
what it comes down to so I think we’re
going to drop and I think we’re going to
try to bounce again the markets uh try
to BT them surrounding the fed or
shortly thereafter uh the S&P could
rebound back up to the 5200 level or
even try to make a new high at the upper
Channel talked about my last update but
just some things to be watching here in
the weekly time frame the rainbow cloud
critical mass that 100 day in the daily
time time frame and the 20 we moving
average and the fact that we’re below
now the 10 we moving average and the
10day moving average in the daily time
frame so important moving averages along
with the rainbow cloud and critical mass
right
here again with the 4our chart bitcoin’s
likely going to try to hit the lower
boundary of the channel uh and
again possibly form a diversions with
pring parameter we got rejection at the
200 we Dro back below the 50 we Dro back
below 10 in the daily and lost the 50
here all the while pring parameter
negative all suggesting a bigger drop
back down likely to take out the low of
59,000 chicken bottom surrounding some
of the support levels I’m talking about
in this video underneath this level or
just under that 100 period moving
average maybe just above R2 week
possibly surrounding critical mass or or
so have a bull flag and signals momentum
has shifted back to bearish uh again
likely going to test these lows and if
we do you can form a Divergence with the
parameter Bitcoin is right at in the
daily time frame right at this trend
line if we connect the low here and the
low we recently made and that’s a trend
line right there you take it out you get
your 100 period but if we take out the
100 period this is the trend line I’m
watching right here this trend line
right here could be tested and we could
bounce off of it if we violate the 100
period uh and again we took out the 100
period previously and that was the last
Touch of this blue trend line right here
we took it out and then got a bottoming
tail there that’s where we expected a
bounce around the 100 period moving
average because Bitcoin follows the 100
period moving average so I’ll be
watching if we get a bigger drop here
did we see the RSI come down here and
reach an extreme or does it maybe try to
form a Divergence or whatever but we’ll
be to see do we find support at the 100
period or again uh down at this trend
line which is right where the 20 uh week
moving averag is coming in uh right
around the 56,000 area a triangle
breakdown again we have a lower high
lower low if we lose the trend line we
lose the 100 period we lose the 20 we
then that’s bearish then you’ve got
support way back over here down towards
our 200 period moving average down
towards 51 1,000 uh horizontal support
is at
51,000 uh so if we lose the trend line
we lose the 100 that’s where we’re going
we bounce off these levels You Can Bot
them out you can form your bull flag and
you can try to rebound back up and
moving if we drop below the 100 period
or bounce off of it drop below it get
back above it or drop uh or bounce off
of it that would be bullish breaking it
and staying below it breaking the trend
line and staying below it that would be
bearish and the mfcd remains negative
negative so again we’re going to be
watching to see uh if we uh break down
and move to test the low the recent
minor low at 59,000 and to test our 100
period and the trend
line I previously mentioned Bitcoin
could form the bull flag finish forming
it get one more push higher and still
top you see the same thing with the
stock market this is Bitcoin up here
this is tether right here tether at this
curve has marked the Bitcoin tops and we
saw it over here we saw it over here we
saw it over here and here let me do that
better uh there in the extremes to the
upper of this curve have marked uh
bottoms here over here over here and
then over here for the diversion and
recently just below it over here uh but
again we’re likely headed here here with
tether down to this level right here
from the the curve right here and again
that could still push Bitcoin up to a
new high but still create a top as I’ve
talked about if we look at tether
dominance again we got a trend line here
and we’re bouncing off of it and we’ve
come up to overhead resistance and now
we’re turning down off of that level
okay if Bitcoin tries to find a bottom
down here in the lower window
and turns back up you know if we turn
down a little bit more and then turn
back up you get something like what we
had over here or something like what we
had over here now again this is a line
you saw earlier with the candlesticks in
the weekly time frame that we had a a
peak a drop and then a pop higher and we
could see the same thing here if the uh
tether dominance turns back to the trend
line here turns back to the curve for
tether that I just showed you a moment
ago suggest testing that Bitcoin could
be in a topping process is what the the
bull uh scenario needs as a break of
this trend line we got to break that
trend line because this again has called
let me just bring this up a little bit
more so you can see it here uh this is
called uh the tops uh for Bitcoin this
trend line right here all of them it’s
called called them all uh here since 200
uh
17 called the major sell-offs on bitcoin
and again
uh 84% it’s ended up being 71% in
totality 55% 78% it’s called them all
here a little hard to see but we had two
down legs and again it called both of
them correctly so again the selloff
we’re getting now we’re bouncing off the
trend line if we move back to the trend
line coin can get another push higher
but if Bitcoin is going to have a boom
Market that trend line has to break so
again this is suggesting a topping
process is under construction for
Bitcoin and if we get a bigger drop
right here right now whole below the 10
we moving average start taking up the 20
we you start clearing this level right
here with Bitcoin dominance directly
overhead then that’s not going to be
good uh for Bitcoin you may get a
topping tail like here and push back
down a topping tail like that and push
back down and get you know a bottom as I
mentioned hitting the 20we moving
average or moving below the 100 day but
again this level you break above it you
stay above it you hold above it then
that’s going to be very bearish for
Bitcoin uh you push back down and you
move to the trend line then that will be
bullish and you’ll try to find a bottom
with the bull flag pattern again this is
suggesting that we still could see
another leg higher uh if we don’t push
above horizontal resistance and stay
above it but maybe we push above it like
we did over here and here but then turn
back down then that would be suggesting
we get one more high with Bitcoin
watching carefully but it is just like
the uh uh the tether it is suggesting
that Bitcoin is in a topping process
because Bitcoin takes its time doing
what it’s going to do people may not
realize that yet again at the bullish
scenario Bitcoin has to break above
69,000 and never look back and then this
trend line has to break and then see
everything turned back to bullish and
remain that way and not drop below
69,000 again but we’re if we’re in a
topping process we’ll get rejection even
if we go higher will get rejection in
this area and any attempt above 69,000
will end up failling that would be the
bearish scenario this is suggesting
overall topping process is under
construction for Bitcoin I told you we
could be around the highs and we’re
turning down off of them but we’ve been
hovering near the highs for weeks and
weeks told you that was very possible
because that’s what we’ve seen over here
and over here over here we are up near
the highs for several weeks and we could
be witnessing the same thing so again um
for a bullish
uh bull phase you got to break the trend
line you got to break above 69,000 for a
bearish phase you break above it and it
fails like over here and I’m I’ve been
talking about these uh tops in
2021 some breakout of the dollar also
suggesting that Bitcoin could have
problems in the non too distant future
but the dollar had a huge run bitcoin’s
had a huge selloff uh if the dollar
pulls back that can help Bitcoin move to
a new high for the short term but like I
said you take out that 20we moving
average you take out the 100 day that’s
going to be bearish you bounce off those
levels that’s going to be
bullish now the Bitcoin weekly chart we
still have the stochastic below 80 it’s
still pointing down we had a diversion
develop there and we turned off of that
Peak and so far that high is holding
again you’ve got your cloud in your 20e
direct ly below you’ve got your 100
period uh above that in the daily time
frame said the rainbow cloud and
critical mass are very important
support above the 20we moving average
there but uh again just some important
things to be watching here we continue
to slide back to test our recent lows at
59,000 but stochastic still bearish here
lost the 10we moving average this past
week coin got rejection at the 20-day
moving average just below the 50 period
here’s a 20 in blue again the support is
the 100 period when you’re below the 100
period bad things are happening you
tried to get above it here and it failed
uh but you tend to get rejection at it
or it fails uh when you’re above it good
things are happening but you can
overthrow it here we went sideways and
got back above it and bounced off of it
we’ll see if we bounce off of it again
or Break It break it ho below it that’s
bearish you bounce off of it or dip
below it and get back above it that’s
bullish if we rebound and try to make a
new high with the bull flag you could
still form a Divergence on pring
parameter you could still form a
Divergence on the RSI in the weekly time
frame the RSI reached an
extreme we turned down we went back up a
little bit there and we really validated
a lower high a lower high for now and
again you might still try to form a
diversion so it might still try to turn
back up up here in form a Divergence as
we had back over here as we had back
over here and we had the triple one
right there where the bullish one right
here still might see that happen come
down go back up and still have the move
fail and again looks something like what
we had here or here if that diversion
tries to form but it still May Mark a
topping process if that is the case you
got to break above 6 ,000 stay above it
not look back but right now we still
have a
2050 uh signal 2050 bullish signal we’re
above the 20 or above 50 on the RSI uh
you start losing the 20 you start losing
the 50 then again bad things are going
to start happening you start losing the
20 you start losing the 50 bad stuff
starts happening so again is Major
support in the weekly time frame the 100
day in the daily the RSI we’re still on
a bullish 2050 bullish signal but you
start dropping below these levels you
start losing the 50 then you’re that’s
very problematic I think you got a good
shot that if we see the bull flag play
out you can bounce off these levels and
if you do you got a possible diversion
that can form here if you can see the
stock market rebound and the S&P and
NASDAQ go back up and try to fill their
gaps up again we’ll probably have more
volatility at the FED Bitcoin will
likely do so as well just turned off the
20 and the 50 the S&P p is at the 20 as
of Friday he’s directly overhead it’s
likely going to turn off those levels as
well that is at the 20 period as well on
Friday hopefully see maybe a bigger push
higher or turn right around those areas
they seem to be following Bitcoin again
so I’ll be watching to see if a
diversion develops here uh if we go a
little bit lower and try to bounce
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