Expectations for Crude Oil Prices
here Chris Robinson’s here managing
director at TGM institutional Services
Chris I i’ imagine a lot of focus on
this uh um ceasefire talks in the Middle
East and how they’re
progressing yeah and you know it’s
probably going to change minute to
minute hour to hour and that’s why
you’re going to have I wouldn’t be
surprised to see a three or $4 doll
trading range in crude oil today um
remember a lot of people uh you know two
weeks ago a week ago when things look at
the worst uh a lot of people got out
there you know bought the high thought
we were going to go to you know 10050 or
whatever crazy somebody bought what out
of know how many thousands of $250 calls
I mean that was probably the kiss of
death right there I saw that because
that’s generally when somebody can’t
stand it anymore they’re like okay well
then also that was a pretty it was a
very cheap relatively inexpensive way to
play it but long story short yeah we’re
going to be you know whipping whipping
with the uh uh every headline and this
is when you know options are kind of a
double-edged sword with the crude oil um
lots of times the the volatility and
stuff you know if you’re playing against
Pros it’s hard to get paid but that’s
probably your simplest way especially if
you’re looking for something explosive
like um you know out of the ordinary if
we were to go above 95 or go below 80
that’s probably the way to play that but
um you know day trading the stuff um
it’s it’s very very difficult and I
think that I don’t care if you pick a
point and you buy it or pick a point and
you sell it you’ve got to realize that
you’re probably risking $3 worth of heat
every time you make a decision you know
we talked a little bit last week about
how us production the uh record
production we’ve seen over the last five
years or so has really helped buffer us
from some of those geopolitical um you
know kind of knee-jerk reactions to
events news such as this but I think to
your point here definitely still
susceptible and I think uh uh today and
recently a pretty good example the last
couple weeks as we’ve come off that near
$990 level a pretty good example and
then you know I was even thinking about
it and listening to someone talk about
price this morning talking about how we
were coming off back down to 82 83 and I
was thinking it shows how we become
willing to accept higher prices right
stocks take the escalator up elevator
down crude I feel like escalator up
staircase down if at
all yeah we put in a pretty good trading
range too really I’m I’m glancing over
here to chart to my left and it looks
kind of weird but you can go back to
basically September of 2022 and we’ve
traded anywhere from 95 to 65 yeah so
you know that’s we’re used to a$3
trading range in crude oil and it’s you
know it’s funny because every time we
get the $95 they blame it on the oil
companies and every time we get to
$65 they say oh look what a job the
politicians are doing it’s really absurd
kind of fun to watch but you we are in a
$30 trading range and that’s for most
people that’s a pretty big swing you
know one lot if you’re trading a full
crude oil a one lot you know it’s
$11,000 it’s a it’s a $30,000 swing um
that’s why I think most people are
probably gravitating toward the micros
and things like that but there certainly
is anybody that’s watching this program
right you’re looking for trading
opportunities if you’re looking for
movement your movement’s there but I
would just say this you’ve got to look
I’m it’s you know you don’t have to be a
rocket science it’s somewhere between 80
and 86 now we’ve trended higher since
December so the is higher so if you’re
somebody that wants to set it and forget
it you know then you would want to be if
you’re a Trends follower then you’re
like oh okay maybe when you get down
here towards 8082 this is a dip to buy
because um uh if you look at that and
price is King right and the fact that
you and I nobody knows what’s going to
happen with the ceasefire hopefully it
goes through and things calm down but if
it if it didn’t that would certainly
impact prices and that’s the risk you
are trying to hedge or trade a coin flip
at this point Point toing taking a look
here as you mentioned a $30 range in
crude I feel like at these elevated
levels though uh I’m noticing here AAA
reporting the national average for a
gallon gas 365 that’s up from 353 a
month ago a year ago we were at 361
prices at the pump have been on the rise
talk to me about the impact this has on
fed this week the decision-making
process I mean seeing crude its
stubbornly elevated levels not
necessarily want what they want to see
especially in these volatile times with
geopolitical tensions playing out in the
Middle
East yeah well the FED I think is still
they may not admit it but it seems to be
the only metric they really really move
on make a move on is the unemployment
number so again we’re coming up to the
first Friday of the month that’s that’s
going to be the reset button um I do
think that that they look and see you
know what’s going on with crude but but
more more importantly you know we’ve had
a kind of a drawback a draw excuse me a
draw an increase in the gasoline Supply
people are actually driving less if you
look at last week’s statistics so the PE
people are voting with their pocketbook
um most people don’t like you know
expensive gas and part of that is you
know crude oil could probably drop to 75
bucks and we’d still have expensive gas
because we’re switching into the summer
blend and there’s an old underlying
story that you know we haven’t built a
Refinery since what
1974 so we don’t we don’t have the
capacity to produce a lot of the
gasoline that we need and and the and
the last item to remember is we are
exporting you know what 12 million
barrels a day you know we are exporting
we’re a net export so that tells you
right there I think if anything ever
really did get get uh dicey then we may
see see somebody where they’d say okay
you know what maybe we’re not going to
expert or we’re going to keep at home
here here so that’s always a that’s
always a consideration although I don’t
see that coming but you know that’s
that’s the thing and I can’t cannot
imagine how expensive gasoline or crude
oil would be if we did not have the
capacity to uh pump 12 million barrels a
day yeah I feel like we’re in one of
those scenarios where you can almost
throw a dart blindfolded and hit a
bullish indicator or something that’s
going to support crude prices at current
levels Chris thanks for taking your time
to be with us this Monday morning Chris
Robinson managing director at tjam
institutional services
Chris Robinson discusses the expectations for crude oil prices. He talks about where energy prices are headed and what that means for investors. Tune in to find out more about futures and the stock market today.
======== Schwab Network ========
Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.
Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter – https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe
Download the iOS app – https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185
Download the Amazon Fire Tv App – https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7
Watch on Sling – https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch
Watch on Vizio – https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore
Watch on DistroTV – https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/
Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork
Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork
Follow us on LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/
About Schwab Network – https://schwabnetwork.com/about
#investing #trading #finance #stocks #global #equities #markets #stockmarket #stockmarkettoday #oil #futures