1) long or short?
2) what price to aim for?
3) SL / TP
1)
Use trend identifiers and don’t fight the trend. For this I use the open range break out and a combo of the VIX/SPY and other markers. If all markets are green and all volatility funds are red then we long. If all volatility is green and all markets red we short
2)
To get realistic price opportunity go to Yahoo finance, download historic data. Run it through CHAT GPT and ask it to provide analysis on percentage of times a price difference is reached.
It will spit out something like:
$10 move – 100% of the time
$20 move – 97% of the time
$30 move – 94% of the time
$40 move – 85% of the time
$50 move – 79% of the time
$60 move – 65% of the time
$70 move – 59% of the time
$80 move – 46% of the time
3) basic spread sheet where you put in your portfolio total and stock total.
From this you can work out basic 2:1 sums.
Summary of above:
Markets are green, volatility funds are red so we go long on breach of open range (just 15 mins to let settle). Confident that it will move $40 as it goes up 80% of the time. Then 2:1 it based on your portfolio size.
Now you’re on trend, on a common change with good risk management
1 Comment
Just don’t over complicate it. Three steps
1) long or short?
2) what price to aim for?
3) SL / TP
1)
Use trend identifiers and don’t fight the trend. For this I use the open range break out and a combo of the VIX/SPY and other markers. If all markets are green and all volatility funds are red then we long. If all volatility is green and all markets red we short
2)
To get realistic price opportunity go to Yahoo finance, download historic data. Run it through CHAT GPT and ask it to provide analysis on percentage of times a price difference is reached.
It will spit out something like:
$10 move – 100% of the time
$20 move – 97% of the time
$30 move – 94% of the time
$40 move – 85% of the time
$50 move – 79% of the time
$60 move – 65% of the time
$70 move – 59% of the time
$80 move – 46% of the time
3) basic spread sheet where you put in your portfolio total and stock total.
From this you can work out basic 2:1 sums.
Summary of above:
Markets are green, volatility funds are red so we go long on breach of open range (just 15 mins to let settle). Confident that it will move $40 as it goes up 80% of the time. Then 2:1 it based on your portfolio size.
Now you’re on trend, on a common change with good risk management