NVDA Up 35% Into Earnings

Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday (Aug 27) after the close, and the setup looks like a textbook high-stakes event. The stock is currently trading at $181.30, up over 35% in the past three months, and the technicals tell a mixed story heading into earnings. On the positive side, the long-term trend is still strong. Nvidia is trading above its 10-day ($179), 50-day ($167), and 200-day ($137) moving averages, which confirms that the uptrend remains intact and the bulls are in control on a broader timeframe.

However, the short-term signals show some cracks. The RSI sits at 73.4, which is firmly in overbought territory. To be clear, this doesn’t always mean the stock will drop immediately, but it does raise the probability of profit-taking in the near term. The MACD has slipped below the signal line (2.92 vs. 4.43), and the histogram has been shrinking since mid-August, indicating fading momentum. Volume has also flatlined while price continued to rise, often a sign that buyers are running out of steam ahead of a major catalyst.

Historically, Nvidia tends to move around ±8% after its earnings announcements. Given the massive run it’s already had this quarter, the risk/reward skews toward the downside. Yes, if Nvidia beats expectations and raises guidance, the stock could break through $190–200 and extend its rally. But with RSI overbought, MACD momentum weakening, and volume drying up, there’s also a real chance of a “sell the news” reaction back toward $170 to 160, even on solid earnings.

TLDR: The long-term trend remains bullish, but in the short-term, Nvidia is priced for perfection. Technicals suggest momentum is tiring, so investors should be prepared for volatility and not be surprised if the first reaction is red before the next leg higher.