In the past, if more than half the 400 industries in the payroll survey were shedding jobs, we were in a recession. In July, over 53% of industries were cutting jobs.

A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating,

Is there anyone who didn't see this coming? Trump, and his Republican panderers have done everything in their power to drive our economy into the toilet. To date they has fired about a million productive citizens with the promise of more to come, all in service to the millionaires, billionaires, oligarchs and plutocrats by giving the increasing tax cuts while pissing on the fundamentals of our Democracy.

And now the inevitable has come to the fore.

Trump's chaotic and totally incoherent tariff policies — on one day, off the next, 10% one day, 100% the next — has completely disrupted international trade and driven those who once were our partners right into the arms of Russia, China, and now he is making overtures to North Korea.

Meanwhile unemployment is up, inflation is growing, and our economy is showing early indication of collapse.

In an effort to divert our attention from an impending catastrophe he is inventing phony rationales to keep the goobers and yahoos who shout 'Murica' on knife's edge while talking in Jimjab, and selling them worthless doohickies like watches, NFTs, crypto and Truth Social that make him and his crime family billions while the suckers lose everything.

And all the while the Republican congress does nothing but rake in billions on their own from corporate sponsors, thinking all will be forgotten once Trump is out of office. It will not! We will find the evidence needed to prosecute Mike Lee, Paul Gosar, and the Tommy Tubervilles, the Tom Cottons, the Barrassos and Capitos, Hawleys and all the rest.

The pedophiles will face justice. Investigations into the accused Matt Gaetz and Jim Jordan will be reopened.

Folks, a single letter or phone call to your local Republican Rep outlining the above will give them sleepless nights. We have them, now it's their turn.

Read this:

A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating, Zandi warns

Story by Jason Ma •

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi continued to sound the alarm on the risk of a downturn, warning that states accounting for nearly a third of U.S. GDP are already in a recession or at high risk of slipping into one. Meanwhile, another third is treading water, while the last third is still expanding. After saying that the U.S. is on the precipice of a recession earlier this month, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi continued to add more granularity to his warning. In social media posts on Sunday, he said his assessments of various datasets indicate that states accounting for nearly a third of U.S. GDP are already in a recession or at high risk of slipping into one. Another third is treading water, while the last third is still expanding.

“States experiencing recessions are spread across the country, but the broader D.C. area stands out due to government job cuts,” Zandi added. “Southern states are generally the strongest, but their growth is slowing. California and New York, which together account for over a fifth of U.S. GDP, are holding their own, and their stability is crucial for the national economy to avoid a downturn.”

For now, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker points to continued nationwide growth, though it’s expected to decelerate to 2.3% in the third quarter from 3% in the second quarter.

Here’s how the states—and one federal district(*)—break down:

Recession/high risk (22): Wyoming, Montana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kansas, Massachusetts, Washington, Georgia, New Hampshire, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, Delaware, Virginia, Oregon, Connecticut, South Dakota, New Jersey, Maine, lowa, West Virginia, District of Columbia*.

Treading water (13): Missouri, Ohio, Hawaii, New Mexico, Alaska, New York, Vermont, Arkansas, California, Tennessee, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan.

Expanding (16): South Carolina, Idaho, Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Nebraska, Indiana, Louisiana, North Dakota, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Utah, Wisconsin.

Last week, Zandi also put a finer point on his forecast. He said Moody’s machine-learning-based leading recession indicator put the odds of a downturn in the next 12 months at 49%.

While tax cuts and government spending on defense should help growth, that won’t come until next year. The base case is that the economy avoids a recession, “but not by much,” Zandi said.

“The economy will be most vulnerable to recession toward the end of this year and early next year,” he added. “That is when the inflation fallout of the higher tariffs and restrictive immigration policy will peak, weighing heavily on real household incomes and thus consumer spending.”

With the economy facing many threats, it wouldn’t take much to push it into recession, Zandi said, singling out a selloff in the Treasury bond market that would send long-term yields soaring. And before that, he pointed out that more than half of industries are already shedding workers, a sign that’s accompanied past recessions. Payrolls expanded by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for about 100,000. Meanwhile, May’s tally was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s total was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000, meaning the average gain over the past three months is now only 35,000.

Because recent revisions have been consistently much lower, Zandi said he wouldn’t be surprised if subsequent revisions show that employment is already declining.

“Also telling is that employment is declining in many industries. In the past, if more than half the ≈400 industries in the payroll survey were shedding jobs, we were in a recession,” he explained. “In July, over 53% of industries were cutting jobs, and only health care was adding meaningfully to payrolls.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-third-of-the-u-s-economy-is-already-in-a-recession-or-at-high-risk-and-another-third-is-stagnating-zandi-warns/ar-AA1L9zRN