It seems like there’s a lot of people impacted by layoffs. And it’s been happening since March/April so the data should be fully baked in by now.
From what I’m hearing it’s taking pretty long to find jobs as well. I’m curious on how the unemployment rate so stable.
Are people finding jobs relatively quickly keeping the unemployment rate low?
Is the data not representative?
Can someone explain what’s causing this?
800K job cuts in the US so far this year, highest since 2020/Covid. Unemployment rate stable at 4%. How is that?
byu/Rey_Sky_11 ineconomy
Posted by Rey_Sky_11
21 Comments
I have a small hunch that people kind of have to work because otherwise they have no money. so they have to do whatever work they can because it costs sooo much to live now.
But Trump said the economy is doing great under his administration.
– people working more than one job are still employed
– the jobs being cut had no employees
– the numbers are fake
Pick one
The short version is the US reported unemployment number only represents those actively seeking work that are currently unemployed. So, if you have a part time job, you aren’t counted. If you gave up and stopped looking (or your employment insurance ran out and you’re on social assistance) you aren’t counted. There has been an active effort to keep that number as low as possible for a very long time, the government finds ways to not count people that actually are unemployed. Same kind of shenanigans (creative reporting) is why the reported inflation is way below people’s actual experience.
People are simultaneously retiring?
Look at the employement rate. It’s down 0,5 %-points since January 25.
Getting Companies to invest billions that creates jobs. Trying to shift people into productive roles vs just sucking up taxpayers money pushing paper around
How? By firing the person in the Bureau of Labor Statistics responsible for reporting accurate unemployment numbers after they previously reported accurate unemployment numbers Donald J Quixote didn’t like.
Good jobs go ‘bye-bye’. People need to work, so they take crappy part-time jobs to make ends meet.
Continued claims are up a bit but not a lot.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA
Its 5.5% in California and not getting any better. I know several people still looking for work since the beginning of the year. Companies are not hiring, or hiring less with lower starting pay.
Look up labor participation rate and U6 unemployment rate
I use FRED St Louis…. Massive, easy database
U6 was huge,deal to MAGA when Obama was Prrsident.. Never heard a peep about it when Trump was President
Expansion of the job pool.
There’s also the confounding variable of ‘seasonal adjustment.’
I had a discussion once on how racism hurts everyone and my goodness the amount of white people that piled on to advised me, how wrong I was and racism doesn’t impact them and it was more of a moral blah blah…. Let’s continue to blame DEI
Baby boomers are still retiring in massive numbers. That’s what saving the unemployment rate.
Couple of options.
Some folks are out of work so long they stop looking and are removed from the unemployment rate or take any job even though it is not what is a fit for their skills.
Some of the cuts are younger college grads and aren’t filing for unemployment since it isn’t worth the hassle and just living at home. So they don’t get onto the statistics.
[Household income now tending up, but well below pre-covid](https://motioresearch.com/household-income-series/)
I doubt this trend can hold for much longer
You lose a job making $100k and get a new job making $25k a year you are still employed so no net change to the jobs numbers and unemployment rate. I think a lot of that, people taking any job to survive but definitely seeing a decline in job quality and income
I think there is a lag affect with the layoffs. I am lucky enough to find internal role with my governnment contractor who tried laying me off. The numbers are skewed due to part time jobs and people dropping out of the labor market, (stopped looking for work)
But world market up people spending money. Amusement parks are full of
Couple factors are keeping the overall unemployment rate muted. US is currently in the midst of its peak retirement wave for the boomer generation. The number of working age people in NEET (Not in employment, education, or training) is increasing in 2025. And part-time and gig work as a percentage of all employment has continued to expand in 2025.