Nvidia Earnings Options Market Expectations

As Nvidia (NVDA) prepares to announce quarterly results, traders are once again turning to the options market for clues. At ORATS, we track the implied earnings move, which reflects what options prices suggest about expected stock movement, and compare it with the actual move that follows the report.
Over the past 12 quarters, Nvidia’s options market has been remarkably accurate at predicting the actual move. The average implied move into earnings has been 7.7%, while the actual average stock move post-announcement has come in at 7.6%.

Why the Implied Move is Lower Now
Several factors help explain why traders are pricing in a smaller post-earnings swing than usual. Nvidia has already gained 34% in 2025, which has helped push realized volatility down. Over the last 12 quarters, Nvidia’s average implied volatility into earnings was 44.8%, while the historical volatility between earnings reports averaged 48.2%. Since the most recent earnings report, historical volatility has averaged just 28.6%, a sharp decline that signals the market sees less uncertainty in Nvidia’s path.
Together, these dynamics suggest the options market is indicating that much of the AI and Nvidia uncertainty premium has already come out. Traders are less anxious about sudden surprises, and that shows up in the pricing.