q4 bitcoin outlook: are we frontrunning september weakness?

been digging into some research from network economist timothy peterson and thought it was worth sharing here. the numbers for bitcoin going into q4 are more interesting than they look on the surface.

historically from late august through christmas btc has been positive about 70 percent of the time with an average gain of 44 percent. not bad odds. but what caught my eye isn’t just the upside it’s the pattern.

the september curse. bitcoin has never closed september more than 8 percent higher. ever. it’s usually the weakest month on record. the dip we’re seeing now could just be that seasonality showing up early. some traders are saying we’re frontrunning the usual september chop.

why this year feels different. peterson filtered out the weird years 2017 bubble peak 2018 crash 2020 covid chaos 2022 ftx collapse. what’s left points to a q4 that’s positive but less wild. that lines up we’re not in euphoria but we’re not in crisis either.

also worth watching. bitcoin’s been shadowing gold with a lag lately. gold’s been strong and if that correlation keeps up it’s another tailwind for btc.

my take. the current drop back to july levels doesn’t look scary. if anything it’s a setup for a healthier q4 push rather than some parabolic moon run.

what do you guys think normal september behavior or something bigger brewing