It’s absolutely a short run drag in the short run. Simply can’t replace them with capital or natives.
I could *see* a hypothesis that it may not have much of a deleterious impact in the long run (and perhaps be positive). Probably includes, at a minimum, natives being willing to downskill and accept a lot of these jobs, or some rapid technological innovation. Also going to have to mean a large, surplus, labor force where minimum wage is considered the living wage. And the labor force being offered non wage benefits that improve health.
AppropriateRefuse590 on
Unfortunately, many reports simply explain the drop in nonfarm payrolls as the economy worsening, as if the absence of immigrants has no impact at all. I just hope the Fed is actually taking this into account, and not blindly following the market in interpreting every payroll decline as a signal to cut rates.
Ateist on
Quality of jobs is also important.
If you can’t hire lots of cheap illegal immigrants you’d have to invest in equipment (including developing such equipment) to make up for the shortage, and in the end it results is far more growth.
3 Comments
It’s absolutely a short run drag in the short run. Simply can’t replace them with capital or natives.
I could *see* a hypothesis that it may not have much of a deleterious impact in the long run (and perhaps be positive). Probably includes, at a minimum, natives being willing to downskill and accept a lot of these jobs, or some rapid technological innovation. Also going to have to mean a large, surplus, labor force where minimum wage is considered the living wage. And the labor force being offered non wage benefits that improve health.
Unfortunately, many reports simply explain the drop in nonfarm payrolls as the economy worsening, as if the absence of immigrants has no impact at all. I just hope the Fed is actually taking this into account, and not blindly following the market in interpreting every payroll decline as a signal to cut rates.
Quality of jobs is also important.
If you can’t hire lots of cheap illegal immigrants you’d have to invest in equipment (including developing such equipment) to make up for the shortage, and in the end it results is far more growth.