been watching this $4.5k resistance for over 10 days now and it's getting frustrating. here's what's actually keeping eth pinned down according to the data.
spot volume delta is showing negative net buying even while we're consolidating. that's not normal – usually consolidation comes with some underlying buying pressure. without real demand, any breakout attempt is going to get slapped back down immediately.
eth etfs are bleeding hard too. last week alone saw $787.6 million in outflows, with friday hitting $446.8 million by itself. when the easiest way to buy eth (etfs) is seeing mass exits, that's a problem for price momentum.
futures open interest dropped 18% from the $70b all-time high on aug 23 down to $58b now. less leverage means less firepower for big moves up or down. remember when we saw similar 18% oi drops in july? eth fell 15% right after.
the network fundamentals aren't helping either. revenue dropped 44% in august even as we hit new aths. transaction fees down 10% over 30 days to $43.3m. the dencun upgrade made l2s cheaper but it's gutting eth's fee burn mechanism.
technically we're forming a descending triangle with support at $4.2k. if that breaks, the pattern targets $3,550 which is an 18% drop. some traders like ted pillows think we might see $3.8k-$3.9k first before any real bounce.
the disconnect is real – addresses growing to 150m but actual network usage and revenue declining. adoption metrics look good but the money flow tells a different story.
anyone else thinking this consolidation turns into a deeper correction before we see $5k?
why eth can't break $4.5k – the buyers just aren't showing up
byu/dumble_hold_the_door inethtrader
Posted by dumble_hold_the_door
7 Comments
The only thing stopping me from buying is being broke
Relax. It went to almost 5k and went up a lot over last few months. It’s just cool off. Exchanges actually are running low cuz institutions have accumulated.
” why can’t eth break 4.5″ dude…. Bitcoin isn’t moving. That’s literally it. Everything follows btc, if BTC doesn’t move, it’s very likely nothing else will lol. It’s been like this for very long time.
Oh well. Buy more. Friday needs to hurry up
You are very new. Zoom out a little and relax.
It can hit 5000 in a single day this is just a waiting game. It’s inevitable with all these treasuries popping up
Stfu and sell then