- The US economy was revised downward by 911K people from the originally reported as of March 2025. The data covers the period from March 2024 to March 2025, with the monthly average revised from 147,000 to about 71,000.
- It is still well above the expectations of many economists, who expected the revisions would be hundreds of thousands of jobs lower.
- This report again increases the probability of the Fed cutting rates by at least 25 bp and a small chance of a 50 bp cut.
- CME FedWatch is at 91.8% for a 25 bp and 8.2% for a 50 bp drop this month.
US employment falls by 911,000
Job Revisions showed that US employment fell drastically by 911,000. But better than the economists' expectations.
byu/Progress_8 instocks
Posted by Progress_8
16 Comments
That doesn’t sound like the best news…
50bp cut coming?
Do we even trust this data?
It showed that Bidens administration was a fraud and we may see a .50 cut next week.
Why does it matter though when unemployment didnt rise. I dont really get the point of that statistic
The way OP phrased the title is totally misleading. It wasn’t “better” than expectations, it was a bigger revision than most were expecting
Wasn’t this during the “vibes-cession” and the Biden admin trying to convince the public everything was all good and the economy was strong? Not a good look for dems or the fed. Between this and transitory inflation it makes them look like either liars or incompetent. How can anyone trust they’re making the right decisions with such poor data?
“It is still well above the expectations of many economists, who expected the revisions would be hundreds of thousands of jobs lower.”
High end of the estimates were 1M fewer jobs and we just about hit that. Low end estimates were closer to 600k. This was the biggest downward revision of jobs on record. If you think this was a glass half-full revision you are smoking the best of crack.
Fucking terrible headline and completely misleading use of the words “better” and “well above.” Your AI bot is using moralistic human language improperly. Can we take this post down?
The revision was greater than expectations, as in jobs disappeared at a HIGHER rate than expected.
It’s okay folks, best market could do is a .10% drop
Where we’re going we don’t need jobs.
BULLISH
Its probably worse than that but we cant trust what comes out since the jackass fired the independant board
“Sir; they just hit the second revision”
So, with the latest QCEW job revisions, there was virtually no job creation in the last year of the Biden admin. A labor market that is at complete stall speed.
The only thing saving us from being in a massive unemployment recession is historically elevated corporate profit margins from the $2.2 trillion economic stimulus bill signed in 2020 boosting consumer spending to new highs.
Currently, employers are in a “no hire no fire” labor market environment. Meaning no jobs are being created or added, but employers are also waiting as long as possible to conduct wide scale layoffs.
However, with weakening consumer demand, corporate profit margins are compressing. As soon as profit margins erode back to their historical norm, which could be soon, companies will begin layoffs to preserve what little margin they have left. And with zero jobs being created for the past year, that’s going to result in a spiking unemployment rate almost instantly.
I think the fact that the those revisions were through March proves the system is indeed flawed in a major way. And that cuts should have been done much earlier.