Bitcoin: Risk Metric, $113,425 corresponding to risk 56 over 100

Everything here is pure data. I cooked up this algorithm to track BTC daily closing price (UTC) since 2010.

The result is a risk score between 0 and 100 that shows exactly where today’s market stands relative to BTC entire history.

• 0 = historically low, undervalued conditions
• 100 = historically overheated, high-risk territory

\*History of Peaks and Bottoms***
1st halving Nov-28-2012:

• (Nov-22-2011) Bottom price at $2.3 ,risk score: 30 (blue)
• (Apr-08-2013) Heated peak at $238 ,risk score: 100 (red)
• (Dec-03-2013) Top price at $1,151 ,risk score: 89 (red)

2nd halving Jul-09-2016:

• (Jan-13-2015) Bottom price at $176.6 ,risk score: 22 (blue)
• (Jan-04-2017) Heated peak at $1,127 ,risk score: 81 (red)
• (Dec-16-2017) Top price at $19,280 ,risk score: 95 (red)

3rd halving May-11-2020:

• (Dec-14-2018) Bottom price at $3,278 ,risk score: 19 (green)
• (Apr-14-2021) Heated peak at $63,554 ,risk score: 90 (red)
• (Nov-09-2021) Top price at $67,562 ,risk score: 76 (pink)

4th halving Apirl-20-2024:

• (Nov-22-2022) Bottom price at $15,760, risk score:4 (green)
• (Mar-14-2024) Heated peak at $73,094, risk score: 81 (red)
• Current price 113,425 ,risk score 56,

This cycle is the first where BTC 2022 bottom retraced all the way below the 2017 cycle top. That’s why, compared to other cycles, the bottom carried a slightly higher risk score.

Historically, BTC bottoms usually sit at a risk score below 30. On the way up to a cycle top, Bitcoin also tends to spend significant time in the heated zone (80–100) before topping out.

So far in this cycle, we’ve only seen ONLY 2 brief spikes where risk touched the low end of the heated zone (just above 80, in red). We haven’t yet seen BTC spend any sustained time in the full heated range (80–100).

Currently:

A risk score of 80 corresponds to a price of about $177,445 (this shifts over time, the longer the cycle continues, the higher the model will push that level). Also, the eventual top may not happen exactly at risk 80; it could be higher

https://preview.redd.it/z5x4t35ozdof1.png?width=1318&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbcf653988d48ec08aac2d5915487c58f5c09629

\* How the Risk Metric calculated***

First, I gather BTC daily closing prices (UTC) going back to 2010. Then, I run it through my model, which layers several signals together:

• Momentum (RSI – Relative Strength Index): Gauges if the market is running hot or cooling off.
• Volatility (RVI – Relative Volatility Index): Measures whether recent swings are driven more by buyers or sellers.
• Baseline (Moving Average, e.g., 200 days): Tracks the “fair value” price to see if BTC is stretched above or below its trend.
• Recency weighting: Gives more importance to recent data so the score adapts to current conditions.
• Trend smoothing: Filters out noise from short-term spikes, keeping the score stable and reliable.

The calculation in concept:

Risk Score ~ (log(Price) − log(Moving Average)) x (RSI Adjustment) x (RVI Adjustment) x (Recency Weight) x (Trend Smoothing) -> scaled to 0–100.