CDTX – Is their CD388 “universal flu prophylaxis” the most undervalued clinical-stage blockbuster on the market, or I am missing something?

New to reddit and looking for a second set of eyes on one of my investments.

I’ve been digging into Cidara ($CDTX), which is developing CD388, a once-per-season prophylaxis for influenza. Essentially a “universal flu med” for high-risk groups (elderly, immunocompromised, diabetics) where vaccines don't work well. It recently came out of a large phase 2b trial with "game-changer" efficacy results and will soon be moving on to phase 3.

Share price today: ~$63/share × ~42M FD shares (fully diluted) = ~$2.7B valuation.

Note: It perked up a bit today (and promptly settled back down), I suspect because the company mentioned yesterday to investors at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference that they were very happy with how their end of phase 2b meeting with the FDA in August went. Also, their phase 3, which was supposed to start in the spring 2026, is now posted on clinicaltrials.gov as starting this fall. No official PR from Cidara yet, but it seems some good news is coming.

Anyway, here's my math on valuation (conservative inputs):

TAM for CD388: ~285M high-risk in WHO high-income countries (CDC/WHO data, overlap-adjusted). I am extrapolating from the company's US-only data because it seems silly to think a universal flu drug that works well and is safe will only sell in the US.

Pricing: Anchored to long-acting prophylactics (like Beyfortus RSV mAb), not cheap antivirals. U.S. ~$495/dose, ex-U.S. ~$225 → ~$280 weighted avg. (company has done market research and projects confidence that payers will cover at these price points. The ex. US assumption is my own, but follows typical patters of 50% reduction outside US).

COGS: ~$70/dose (figure mentioned by CFO in recent presentation, better as they scale production) → ~75% gross margin. Net margin assumed at 25% (in line with biologics).

Uptake: 25% peak (~71M treated). For context: flu vaccine coverage = ~45% of U.S. adults, ~70% of seniors. So 25% feels skeptical, not aggressive. I more realistic number would be to match vaccine uptake in this high-risk population, but I'm trying to keep this conservative.

Valuation (rNPV): Launch 2028 (potential timing for approval also mentioned by CEO in above conference), patent to 2039, biosimilar erosion by 2042. Discount 10%, PoS 75%. Outcome = ~$22B NPV → $445–530/share!

That's a big number for a clinical stage biotech, but this is a universal flu play! And Cidara is also a platform play with an oncology med based on the same DFC platform waiting in the wings, so maybe it should at least get some optionality out of that.

So my question: why the disconnect?

Is it just “clinical-stage biotech = high risk” until Phase 3 reads out?

Are institutions deliberately keeping this quiet until they’re positioned? (huge institutional interest vs. small free retail float)

Is the market over-discounting dilution, competition, or BARDA uncertainty?

From where I sit, the numbers look like 7–8× upside, but the stock sits flat at $62-$64.

Curious to hear from this community: what am I missing? Why does the market price CD388 so conservatively when even cautious rNPV with risk levers turned up points so much higher?

For discussion only. This is a question, and not investment advice! I hold shares of $CDTX.