Apparently $10k worth of $ORCL $340 calls went up as high as $13M yesterday: https://x.com/EpicTradeAlerts/status/1966001624633278964
Bonkers.
Know ^ isn't realistic with slippage but man even if that were cut in half and I coulda only bought $1k worth… sheesh.
I been trying to understand the bull thesis a bit more and saw that 2 months ago Tom Nash was calling for an Oracle 5x by 2030 for pretty much the reason why it exploded yesterday (AI compute).
His basic thesis was that ORCL's cloud infra business was already showing major growth (and guidance for more) but because Oracle is viewed as a dinosaur database biz, this potential wasn't really being priced in much.
He thinks ORCL cloud could become a small fish in a large pond (cloud computing)
Lol drawing this on a whiteboard looks v handwavy tbh.
I don't know if I really buy his argument that non-oracle customers would choose oracle cloud over the other cloud providers, but I could see a world where existing oracle customers (including the big guns – JPM, Toyota, Coca-cola, etc).
I know the jump was based on the guidance ORCL provided and the basically PROMISED revenue contracts they have in place. I imagine there are skeptics since it was just contracted revenue not actual/realized so I can see how if those contracts deliver and more contracts come then there is still upside left.
Them going up another 30% by next earnings doesn't look that juicy (3:1 risk-reward):
But them going up 100% next year doesn't look bad actually – an almost 9:1 risk-reward (~800% gain)
Kelly criterion saying if I think there's a 20% chance this will happen a pretty sizable bet is actually a good idea:
Hm… I might actually place this bet once things settle down a bit… thoughts? Any Oracle bulls/bears or cloud investors/traders out there?
$ORCL calls went insane. LEAPs actually look promising…
byu/clavidk inoptions
Posted by clavidk
5 Comments
Paid by ORCL.
It’s a good thought experiment. A lot of reddit is anti-work, terrible signal for investing.
Funny thing is that oracle and the exact same owners got sued in the 90s for the exact same shit they pulled this week lmao
Many fortune 500 companies are switching to other DBs which are less expensive or free. May be a dumb question but i dont see oracle any better than other cloud providers. What is their value proposition for such high expected projections
My thesis on them was ORCL was in bid for buying TikTok which would be huge for them and they were recently at the White House dinner. Even if the bid doesn’t work out they host TikTok via their servers so it was a win win in my book.