Let me get this straight:
- Oracle announces $455B in RPOs through 2030, driving stock up 40% in a single day
- $300B of this (66%) depends on a single contract with OpenAI starting in 2027
- OpenAI's funding for this contract comes from SoftBank's $500B Stargate commitment
- SoftBank's total assets are $300B – meaning they'd need to liquidate their entire company just for the Oracle deal
- This is the same SoftBank that valued WeWork at $47B then watched it collapse, promised $108B for Vision Fund 2 but only raised $56B, and has a 30+ year track record of overpromising and underdelivering
- SoftBank funding is contingent on OpenAI converting from a nonprofit to a for-profit, which California AG is investigating and could require a $30B+ payment
- Even if all this works out, Oracle's RPO delivery doesn't start until 2027 – giving 2+ years for this house of cards to collapse
- Oracle's current market cap surge assumes a company with $168B in assets and under $15B in Q1 2025 revenue will somehow deploy $800B+ across multiple AI infrastructure commitments
So Oracle's stock price is essentially a 3x leveraged bet on SoftBank's ability to fund commitments that exceed their entire balance sheet, while navigating regulatory hurdles, legal challenges, and their own history of spectacular failures?
Is Oracle just SoftBank wearing a mask?
byu/OverwroughtPraise ininvesting
Posted by OverwroughtPraise
7 Comments
This is a GREAT post thank you
My girlfriend agreed to buy each pancake I made this morning for $100k so we’re borderline millionaires now.
It’s 2025. People invest on hype, emotion, and the quality of the sales pitch, not actual facts or business sense.
These days the company doesn’t even need to turn a profit for the investors to get rich.
White collar crime will not be prosecuted by the chump regime so there is no downside risk to engage in financial fraud.
Masayoshi Son has access to Prince MBS’ sovereign wealth fund.
OpenAI already has a for profit business. Nonprofits are allowed to run for profit businesses as long as the profits support the nonprofit’s mission and not private interests.
Sentiment will send this thing higher just like it did palantir. I would not be surprised if Oracle has another 30-40% in it