This housing data is the ‘most critical economic variable’ for predicting recessions, and it’s now at the lowest level since pandemic shutdowns

Annoying clickbait title. From the article:

> “The algorithm has identified building permits as the most critical economic variable for predicting recessions. And while permits had been holding up reasonably well, as builders supported sales through interest rate buydowns and other incentives, inventories of unsold homes are now high and on the rise,” Zandi warned.

> “In response, builders are pulling back, and permits have started to slump. They are now as low as they’ve been since the pandemic shutdowns.”

> Last month, the Census Bureau reported that residential building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35 million, down 2.8% from the prior month and down 5.7% from a year ago.