THE BIG TEST as Altcoin Market, Bitcoin and RTY Reach to High, Historic Date Reached, Bear vs Bull

@BCBacker Hi BCB big fan

from what i noticed, the crypto bros on tweeter yeah might be posting bullish shitposts, but the crowd doesn't seem to be there or at least as much i remember it from the last bull run how we toped, it was fast and volatile with everyone interacting and spamming their shit coins full of pump and dumbs with extreme euphoria (i mean just look at the numbers out there there no where near close no?).
so I'm wondering do you see a scenario/possibility where we pull back abit for some weeks/months (2-3) but not below the previous big low (so not a exactly a prolong multi year bear market) and then rump up and make a big break to the upside?
are there any examples like that from bigger markets or other coins?

What I’m about to say is in no way meant to be confrontational. I highly respect your work but I want to give some of my perspective for thought. 2017 structure wasn’t like 2021 structure so why would our base case be that 2025 structure would be like 2017 or 2021? In my opinion, base case should be that 2025 structure will be different than both 2017 and 2021 because that has been the pattern. What was the same in 2017 and 2021 was BTC dominance fell sharply and significantly at some point during both cycles. IMO that should be our base case during this cycle as well since that is “normal behavior”. I’m 100% a cycle guy but in the true sense of how cycles are properly used i(in all asset classes including sticks, commodities, real estate, etc). They NEVER predict tops, they predict bottoms with a 10% variance to either side (example, 60 day cycle has a bottom window of 6 days early or late). Tops can right middle or left translate, meaning there is no ability to predict a top date for cycle theory. All we know is the top has to occur SOMETIME before our anticipated bottom window between June of 2026-April 2027 (more likely to be closer to the perfect bottom of November 2026 but anywhere in the window is still valid. I would argue that sentiment is NOT currently bullish and nowhere near euphoria ( fear and greed is currently 57 and neutral, social media engagement for crypto is at a moderately low level). My base case is we will see some new structure (catch up trade in appearance likely (parabolic)) and BTC dominance crashing AT SOME POINT before the bottom window is active. We all have PTSD from previous cycles so we append narratives to justify our actions to “ensure” we aren’t bag holders again. In the end, it’s a market and ANYTHING can happen but as traders we deal in probabilities and the most probable outcome is that we will have a significant alt season (how broad or narrow that is remains to be seen but whichever ones fly, will fly significantly higher and the TOP for both BTC and ALTS will occur between now and June 2026… Watch price action as a guide and only after BTC dominance drops sharply to mark the end. One more piece of advice, don’t try to nail perfect tops or bottoms, get GOOD entries and exits capturing the bulk of the major moves and preserve capital for re-investment at the macro cycle lows. That is how true wealth is accumulated. Trying to change your financial situation in one trade with a home run is a recipe for disaster. Cheers and Good Luck to all…. See you on the other side friends 😉

Watch the Gold & Silver, if they make an explosive move up then so will the ALTS, especially Silver!

I'm going with nothing makes sense in this market nor stocks this year and going full risk. Don't do what I do lol

so even with all the etfs coming out for xrp in october you think price drops, interesting

Your the best no matter what brother….

Thanks bro! Appreciate you! 🔥

One thing you may not be considering is that yes in late 2021 the altcoin market was lackluster but that was after a huge euphoric rise in alts from early 2021. And in late 2021 there was almost a trillion dollars traded in nft volume that was insanely degenerate and euphoric. None of that euphoria is even remotely here.
So I guess we shall see what will play out.

Let's Go RUSSEL!!!

I love you

Thank you bcb for putting so much time in it and SHARING it with us while getting alot of backlash..

We back the Backer.

Here’s a question, what happened with btc dominance? Every other bullrun it crashed. And during that crash alts went bananas, not this one… WHY?

dominance will never dump that means

You're not a dooms dayer just a realist, if people cant understand your positions and reasons behind them…that's on them. Thank you for all that you do, have a great weekend!

Thank you for all the research and presentation you do!!!!

If you are right and it does crashes, what is the bottom so I can buy back

Thank you for your analysis BCB.

Goat 🐐