If/when the us loses its super power status what will be reason?

What superpower?

– debt?

The US has already lost it economically to China, it’s currently losing it politically because of the administration, it’s losing it monetarily because of the weakening dollar and economic policy, and all that’s left is militarily which will happen eventually.

So really it’s already happening.

When all other countries stop using the dollar for international trade. Trump is accelerating it by pissing off all allies.

These three seem like contributors/symptoms of the problem, but the single largest driver of US downfall will likely be its current swing towards authoritarianism and fascism.

Whether you agree with the current US admin or not, trying to keep politics out of this economy convo (as much as possible, at least,) it is undeniable the executive is making an active effort with their party’s and at least some populist support, to redefine key government and civilian control levers; military, customs, congressional funding, media, academia etc., as loyal to the executive above all, contrary to their original charters.

Again, passing no judgement on the morality and intentionality of this behavior, just an obvious factual reality that reasonable parties on both sides should agree is happening, whether or not they support it.

Back to apolitical opinion and speculation, historically this type of behavior leads either revolutionary/extreme changes to political structures, partial societal collapse/stagnation, or full scale internal conflict/foreign wars that drain the nations resources and upturn economic institutions.

These movements and crises are survivable and countries can come out the other side healthy, but they can also implode and collapse. Given precarious secular geopolitical climates, id say were leaning towards partial collapse.

I think the last time (and only times, really) an authoritarian shift happened on a scale close to the US would be the chinese communist revolution, before that russia. China faired better than russia and both ~survived~ long term, but in the short term both took significant hits to their global superpower status and faced economic stagnation.

The path of diminishing soft power trump put the us on, combined with poor economic policy and trade policy. Trump is also ensuring the us will no longer be the center of global trade.. Policy within the states is ensuring inflation, social safety nets have been cut which will reduce consumer demand. There’s risk of the trump admin not releasing accurate economic data. All the policies are adding more risk to the bond market and significantly impacting the strength of the dollar. Due to policy and deportations the supply of labor is down at its the demand for labor. Defunding science and education and research and development will ensure the united states is not a leader in innovation, so the US won’t be a leader of new innovation. The gutting of health will continue to reduce the labor supply.

Literally everything that’s been done is ensuring that outcome and the longer it’s not corrected the more solidified the outcome is and this could potentially not be fixed in our lifetime, or our children’s lifetime, or their children’s lifetime.. United States citizens will be learning to live with a lot less

Besides Donald trump? Probably Steven “the big freeze” miller.

Define how to measure loss of super power status. Is it perception or just an objective KPI?

What I foresee as “loss” is any of these:

* Dollar becomes just another currency in the world. Gold is the reserve currency.
* US trade represents 5% of world trade.
* US having problems to sell treasuries. Increased interest rates.
* Credit rating goes down, prime rate goes up.

War is a complete separate problem. War is consumption, and that every newbie strategist knows. War does not produce means of production, just ashes and rubble. So turning money and resources into ashes is not a sound business model to make an economy to grow. War only increases GDP temporarily when weapons are made. But it does not have a long lasting effect. And with all the entry barriers to small companies, there will be no trickle down effect on the economy for that increase of GDP.

Having deficit and debt funding war is like borrowing money from the bank to throw a party to get your friends drunk. The hangover will be the time to repay the loan.

I am not messing with current politics. It could happen if the nation makes war against middle Earth or the Galactic Empire. War is war.

Employment is the engine of economy. there are only 2 ways of creating employment:

* Promote and help startups to survive during the first 2 years with cheap loans and technical assistance.
* To offer companies a very attractive and welcoming picture for investing. Low crime, economic stability, tax incentives, cheap workers via exchange rates, etc. There are many ways to do so. Companies think about themselves, so you need to literally seduce them with ways that make their operations profitable and stable.

Current tariff strategy does not attract companies. It only makes foreign companies to look for new markets to place their products and reroute their exports elsewhere.

Moving manufacture has lots of costs, not only the cost of moving, but also the cost of training, the extra costs of shipping, taxes, delays, etc, as they take distance from suppliers by moving production elsewhere. It is not like moving a call center from a country to another. Moving manufacture is one of the most difficult things to do. There needs to be a very substancial gain in profit to move them. If increased revenue does not compensate the costs of moving, plus the costs of training, plus the costs of idle time during the moving process, plus the costs of having suppliers in the distance, it will not work. You may need to bring the entire supply chain.

Tariffs are not paid by countries. They are paid by local importers and consumers. Exporter companies and foreign nations only see a reduced demand and reduced exports due to tariffs. Costa Rica already tried tariffs from 1950 to 1974 and they failed. What they got was companies that were protected from foreign competitors, so local products and services became mediocre, and executives became lazy.

They had to revert policies to promote exports in 1974.

4 – Not being on the front lines and leaders of the next technological revolution in energy generation and storage.

because we’ve replaced any semblance of doing actual politics in the west with a ridiculous, farcical culture war straight out of pro-wrestling, and as a result, the united states has been electing progressively dumber and more incompetent governments in the service of that culture war for my entire life.

sure, we haven’t added any meaningful capacity to the electrical grid in 40 years, are getting completely lapped by china in every single STEM field, can’t update or replace our aging military equipment we barely even know how to use at this point, and are now seeing our currencies weaken among a host of other things, but at least we have some good laws in place about who can use what public bathrooms, right?

Lack of self awareness and overwhelming brainwashing of a population that has no real knowledge of recent history or gratitude for the hard fought benefits of the rule of law, government oversight of corporate power, and understanding that taking care of the least fortunate improves everyone’s life.

These are nearly all gone, and the republic is spiralling down towards a hard landing.

The US is destabilizing its economy and from that the US dollar as a world/fiat currency.

Investments are fraught with uncertainty.
Trade with other countries is stagnating and/or decreasing.
The US dollar is losing value.
The US has reached a point where it cannot be trusted with economic or trade policy.
The US also cannot be trusted militarily.

All problems when countries need stability and guarantees in their investments.

All empires end.

Conservatives