I seem to read these two depressing themes that never seen to address each other. On the one hand, a declining birthrate means reduction of a productive workforce and tax base, leaving a top heavy population using Social Security, Medicare, as well as other government programs. On the other hand, the growth of AI will render a mind-boggling number of sectors obsolete and maybe we should start looking into Universal Basic Income so humans can still consume in our capitalistic society. I haven't seen anyone marry these two concepts together. Maybe it is a good thing there will be less people if there aren't any jobs for them? But I'm not an economist so I'd love to hear from some.
If the coming AI explosion is going to eliminate entire job markets leaving millions of useless humans then doesn't that mean the declining birth rate is a good thing?
byu/nice_whitelady inAskEconomics
Posted by nice_whitelady
2 Comments
It is a big “if”. After a certain amount of time from the introduction of new automation, workers upskill and do more advanced work than before.
The mechanical loom didn’t eliminate the need for garment workers. It just reduced the need for that type of worker. Now the people who would have made garments in the past are doing some more sophisticated job.
> On the one hand, a declining birthrate means reduction of a productive workforce and tax base, leaving a top heavy population using Social Security, Medicare, as well as other government programs.
This is an argument made by people who understand economics. This is a legitimate threat to future economic growth.
> On the other hand, the growth of AI will render a mind-boggling number of sectors obsolete and maybe we should start looking into Universal Basic Income so humans can still consume in our capitalistic society.
This is an argument made by people who don’t understand economics. Technological change doesn’t work like that. We have an FAQ [on automation](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/wiki/faq_automation). These threads deal specifically with AI:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/1l8v3l2/if_all_white_collar_jobs_are_replaced_by_ai_can/
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/1mre7r5/what_happens_in_a_fully_automated_economy/
Of course this is not to say that there won’t be a recession soon and there won’t be high unemployment for that reason.