I manage a manufacturing business and I would say this report accurately summarizes what is happening from my perspective.
From the article and the actual ISM survey:
“American manufacturing contracted for the eighth month in a row, a new survey showed, and there appeared to be no end in sight because of high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.”
“”Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariff landscape.” (Chemical Products)”
“”Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.” (Machinery)”
Top_Revolution6788 on
So does the business cycle catch up to the market or does the market catch down to the business cycle this time around? Last three years have been an anomaly. I’ve entertained the idea for a couple of years that we’ve been in a pseudo-recession since the middle of 2022 as ISM numbers never consistently rebounded from the COVID crash.
3dsplinter on
I think part of the problem is that there shouldn’t of been tariffs on inputs, which drives prices up or profits down if US manufacturers ate the tariffs just to be competative in their market. Secondly beccause of the tariffs countries placed reciprocal tariffs on US goods, which lowered sales.
The only way this situation might have worked was if the dollar was devalued down to $0.75 relative to the Euro or slightly higher than the Canadian dollar.
I’m guessing that US interest rates realistically can’t go any lower to prompt a lower dollar, and maybe thats why Trump hates the federal reserve these days?
3 Comments
I manage a manufacturing business and I would say this report accurately summarizes what is happening from my perspective.
From the article and the actual ISM survey:
“American manufacturing contracted for the eighth month in a row, a new survey showed, and there appeared to be no end in sight because of high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.”
“”Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariff landscape.” (Chemical Products)”
“”Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.” (Machinery)”
So does the business cycle catch up to the market or does the market catch down to the business cycle this time around? Last three years have been an anomaly. I’ve entertained the idea for a couple of years that we’ve been in a pseudo-recession since the middle of 2022 as ISM numbers never consistently rebounded from the COVID crash.
I think part of the problem is that there shouldn’t of been tariffs on inputs, which drives prices up or profits down if US manufacturers ate the tariffs just to be competative in their market. Secondly beccause of the tariffs countries placed reciprocal tariffs on US goods, which lowered sales.
The only way this situation might have worked was if the dollar was devalued down to $0.75 relative to the Euro or slightly higher than the Canadian dollar.
I’m guessing that US interest rates realistically can’t go any lower to prompt a lower dollar, and maybe thats why Trump hates the federal reserve these days?