Major Events in U.S. Stocks This Week

Monday (December 1st)

Market Events:

• AWS re:Invent (Whole Week): Focused on Agentic AI, cloud computing, AI infrastructure, and continued support for technological networks.
• Earnings Reports: MongoDB (MDB)
• High Volatility Stocks: BMNR, CIFR
• Automobile Transaction Data: NIO, XPEV, LI, BYD
• IPO Quiet Period and Lockup Events: Impact on small-cap stocks
• Jerome Powell Speech (21:00): One of the most important speeches this week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Economic Data:

1. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 48.6)
   • Higher than expected: Improvement in manufacturing → Positive for industry and market.
   • Lower than expected: Ongoing contraction in manufacturing → Negative for the market.
2. ISM Manufacturing Employment (Forecast: 47)
3. Better than expected: Resilient employment → Hawkish interest rate expectations
4. Below Expectations: Employment Slowdown → Technology Stocks to Benefit
5. Overall: Manufacturing is weak, but the technology sector is more dominant due to the conference.

Tuesday (December 2nd)

Market Events:

• Core Tech Earnings: CRWD, MRVL, PSTG, OKTA
• NVDA Attends NeurIPS Conference: (AI Chips, Autonomous Driving, Modeling and Promotion)
• Salesforce (CRM): Announces Cyber Monday Data
• Fed Bowman Speech
• Tech Sector Beta: Relatively strong, sector likely to outperform the market due to high correlation with trends.

Crude Oil Data:

• API Crude Oil Inventory (Forecast: -1.9M)
• Declining inventories are positive for oil prices, while rising inventories are negative.

Wednesday (December 3)

Market events

Financial Reports: CRM, SNOW, DLTR (the two most crucial companies in the cloud computing sector)

DealBook Summit: Featuring numerous CEOs from the technology, crypto, automotive, and finance sectors, this summit is likely to trigger significant fluctuations in news coverage throughout the day.

GlobalFoundries (GFS) Investor Day: Impact on Semiconductor Supply Chain Sentiment

Economic data (numerous, far-reaching)

① ADP Employment (Expected: 20K)

Better than expected: Upside risks to interest rates

Lower than expected: Technology benefits

② Industrial output (expected: 0.1%)

③ Export/Import Prices (Expected: 0% / 0.1%)

④ISM Services PMI (Expected: 52.1)

(The most important data this week besides PCE)

Better than expected: Strong service sector performance may lead to higher long-term interest rates.

Below Expectations: Easing Interest Rate Expectations Benefit Technology

⑤Crude oil + gasoline inventory

The direction of the energy sector is determined by this

Overall: With a dense mix of macroeconomic data and key technology earnings reports, this was one of the most volatile days of the week.

Thursday (December 4)

Market events

Financial Reports: HPE (Key), ULTA, DG

Rio Tinto (RIO) Capital Day: Impact on Metals and Commodities

mood

IMAX and DNLI Investor Day

Bowman speaks again
Economic data

① Initial jobless claims (expected: 218K)

Lower-than-expected results → Strong employment → Risk of rising interest rates

Higher-than-expected rates → Expectations for interest rate cuts intensify

② Trade deficit (expected: -65.5B)

Limited impact on the overall market

Overall: The events were relatively mild, with many days marked by lingering emotions.

Friday (December 5th)

Friday's macroeconomic data is the most important, especially the PCE.

Market events

ServiceNow (NOW) stock split vote (5:1): Sentiment-driven for the Cloud sector

FAO Food Price Index and Monthly Grain Report: Impact on Commodities and Inflation Expectations

11:00 AM – Key Macroeconomic Data (All released at the same time)
① Core PCE (Expected: 0.2%)

→ The indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve

Higher than expected: Negative for the stock market

Below Expectations: Strong Positive Factors Support Technology and Growth Stocks

② PCE (Expected: 0.3%)

Higher than expected → Increased inflation stickiness

Lower-than-expected → Positive for risk assets

③ Personal income (expected: 0.4%)

Higher than expected→support consumption

Lower-than-expected → Discretionary consumption under pressure

④ Personal expenditures (expected: 0.4%)

Higher than expected (>0.6%) → Showing consumer resilience

Lower than expected → Slower consumer momentum

⑤ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Expected: 52)

⑥ Factory orders (expected: 0.2%)

Overall: Friday will determine the final direction of interest rate expectations for the week, making it "the day with the greatest macroeconomic impact."