Moderna and why USD 200 isn’t as crazy as people think

Moderna has been trading like a one trick pony ever since COVID demand cooled off, but when you actually map out their pipeline and long term revenue potential, the current valuation starts to look disconnected from where the company is heading.

I tried to keep this simple and stick to conservative numbers that are already being talked about by analysts.

1. Cash balance gives them a legit floor
   Moderna still has roughly USD 6B in cash.
   For a biotech company that’s building multiple commercial franchises, that matters.
   It reduces dilution risk, lets them fund late stage trials, and buys them time.
   This alone is something the market tends to forget.

2. COVID revenue isn’t disappearing
   Right now Moderna is doing around USD 2B a year from COVID shots.
   Most forecasts I’ve read expect COVID vaccination to settle into something like flu: recurring, seasonal, and global.
   A steady state around USD 3B per year in the mid 2030s isn’t a stretch.
   It’s basically an annuity the market seems to be pricing like it’s fading to zero.

3. Flu vaccine is the next big commercial product
   The flu shot market is huge already and very sticky.
   Moderna’s flu vaccine is tracking toward approval around 2028.
   If it hits, a 5 year ramp to around USD 3B annually is pretty reasonable (the global flu market is already 7 to 10B and growing).
   This gives Moderna a second large and predictable seasonal business.

4. Oncology is the massive wildcard but very real
   Their personalized cancer vaccine program is the reason a lot of long term investors are paying attention.
   If the oncology platform gets approved on the 2028 timeline and ramps over the following few years, it could support USD 10B in recurring revenue.
   For context, existing immunotherapy drugs already generate tens of billions. Moderna doesn’t need to dominate the market just carve out a piece.
   This is the real “platform” upside.

5. So what does this mean for valuation?
   Long term annual revenue potential combining the steady state numbers:
   • COVID: USD 3B
   • Flu: USD 3B
   • Oncology: USD 10B
   • Cash today: USD 6B

Total potential: about USD 16B a year once everything is fully ramped.

Assume a 25 percent net margin, which is reasonable for a biotech platform with established manufacturing:
That’s USD 4B in net income.
Apply a normal 20 to 25 multiple and you’re easily in USD 80B to USD 100B market cap territory.

Moderna today is well below that.

Divide by shares outstanding, and you land in a range where USD 200 per share is actually just a logical consequence of the math if the pipeline hits its milestones.

Bottom line
The market is still treating Moderna like a fading pandemic stock.
But the combination of:
• a multi billion dollar oncology business,
• a flu franchise that could be another multi billion unit,
• a stabilized COVID business,
• and a strong cash position

makes the long term picture look very different from the narrative around it.
If even two out of the three big revenue streams work, USD 200 really isn’t that wild.