KSPI: WeChat / MELI style. Super-app in Kazakhstan, expanding in Turkey

Kaspi (KSPI) is Kazakhstan’s “super app”.

It's similar to WeChat or to Amazon, Klarna bundled with other services (like messaging and Uber Eat) combined. The app is made of three components:

• Payments: payment processing + analytics for consumers/merchants. Ex: 1.1M of transactions for restaurant (73x from 4Q'24 to 3Q'25).
• Marketplace: connects buyers/sellers with omni-channel commerce. Like Amzn, they are also growing their advertising revenues rapidly on the marketplace (+56% from 3Q'24 to 3Q'25). The marketplace itself saw 83.7M purchases (+36% from 3Q'24 to 3Q'25)
• Fintech: BNPL, finance, savings inside the Kaspi app. Other than innovations like pay with palm, financing (micro credit) is their fastest growing product (+17%) with 40% being Buy Now Pay Later. Both Savings and Revenues are increasing (double digits).

Kaspi also has an e-Grocery line (1.3M consumers. +53% YoY) and recently integrated Glovo.

They use AI to enrich content, which translates into improved profitability. Kaspi Ai creates more attractive descriptions and they track the impact with CTR and sales.

In short, Kaspi innovates and executes brilliantly. They have a clear dominant position, and given the network effects, I would qualify it as a moat.

In terms of profitability vs price. Metrics appear exceptional for a consumer-facing platform:

• Operating margin: 51.3%
• ROE: 66.9%
• FCF yield: 9.5%
• P/E: 6.9 (market cap ~15B)

+ Kaspi just approved a $100M buyback in November 2025.

In terms of governance, the company is still cofounder-led with:

• Mikheil Lomtadze (CEO) 22.51%
• Vyacheslav Kim (Chairman) 21.2%
• Management has 3.9%

Most importantly, the culture was built from the ground up with an obsession on the NPS (customer focus) – a bit like Amazon.

What brought the stock price down? Mostly two reasons:

1. There was a short report made by Culper Research a bit more than a year ago. In brief, it ties Kaspi to Russia, suggests dealmaking and possible sanctions from the US. Kaspi has replied to the claims. Stock went from ~$120 before the report to ~$77 today.
2. Macro + Sector: The local interest rates are very high (base rate is ~16%), smartphones sales are decreasing, and like with all banks, there are concerns with their loans health.

Uncertainty: Kapsi expanded into Turkey with the acquisition of a local e-commerce player (Hepsiburada 2025). Kaspi appears to replicate what it did in Kazakhstan and is in the process of getting a local bank license. Their Q3 report indicates successes with UX redesign (higher CTR) and continued growth, but M&A + new market means risk.

Finally, KZ regulatory/tax risks are real, and geopolitical uncertainty exists.

I believe the president (Kassym-Jomart Tokayev) is a tailwind for increased transparency, liberalism, and a balanced relationship with Russia. In addition, despite some Russian rhetoric that questions the Kazakh's claim to nationhood, I doubt Russia can afford another military front – especially under a new narrative. On the other hand, FDI are positive again.

I am bullish on Kaspi's development in Turkey and continued success in Kazakhstan and Central Asia.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. I opened a long position on 19/12/2025.