2025 is sending a weird signal: gold is up about ~71% YoY, copper is up ~35% YoY, and Bitcoin is down ~6% YTD.[tradingeconomics +2]
Gold is being treated as a hedge against debt/fiscal stress, while copper is getting bought as a bet on electrification and infrastructure demand.[tradingeconomics +1]
Bitcoin sits in the middle—sold as “digital gold,” but not really embraced by sovereign buyers, and not priced like a core AI/infrastructure input either.[gold +1]
So the question is whether BTC is being rejected, or just lagging before a later move.
https://i.redd.it/hb47dqqzhx8g1.jpeg
Posted by sirbrow
8 Comments
Interesting signal, but I see it more as rotation than rejection.
Gold = fear / debt hedge, copper = real-world growth & electrification.
BTC usually lags in these phases, then reacts later when liquidity expectations shift.
Not adopted by sovereigns yet, but also not priced as infra — that “identity gap” is exactly why timing matters.
Feels early-cycle boring… until it suddenly isn’t.
Gold is held by Federal reserves all over the world.
BTC is a speculative asset that has slow adoption. Funds allocate 1-3% to it; it’s normal for funds to diversify. It’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of assets that are held.
Assets typically held by “institutions”:
– Equity
– Bonds
– Infrastructure
– Real estate
– NO BTC.
Portfolio managers make millions of dollars managing hundreds of billions of dollars. There is zero incentive for them to take on a speculative asset in which they can only take a tiny position in.
There’s no capital flow into BTC right now. When there is, BTC flies. But asset values are driven by people putting money into that industry. Just like what happened with real estate. Now it’s gold and silver.
If Pension funds, sovereign funds, and national banks start to hold BTC, of course that wll change the game.
You know that Federal Reserves hold assets, so they can borrow money against those assets right? A person holding BTC – nobody will lend money to this person, fearing that they will not be able to pay back. The reserve asset is not stable enough, the debtor will be rated a “D”, not “B+”.
That is why BTC isn’t worth much as a reserve asset. It has no leverage power. Meanwhile other assets have leverage power, and the reserve can borrow against it.
Bot
Bitcoin is a risk on asset, riskier than stocks. Fed balance sheet has been shrinking for years. Risk assets need lots of liquidity that’s just not there atm
Prob get downvoted for this in the Bitcoin sub— Bitcoin isn’t yet viewed as a “safe” asset class. Rather, it tracks liquidity pretty closely. Luckily, the Fed started printing again.
Cool
ur moms important
Younger generations are more likely to buy bitcoin. They have less money. Patience