I seriously feel like we’re dancing on the edge of a cliff right now. Prof. Steve Hanke just gave everyone a massive reality check, and it’s cold: that $3.5 trillion surge in the M2 money supply is basically just physics what goes up has to come crashing down eventually.
The logic in this market is getting insane. We still have the inflation monster running loose, and yet the Fed is already cutting rates? That’s like throwing jet fuel on a house fire. It feels like Wall Street has completely ditched fundamentals for pure "AI hopium." It reminds me of those old cartoons: the Coyote has already run off the cliff, he’s just hovering there in mid-air, and the second he looks down and realizes there’s zero ground underneath him… it’s a straight up vertical drop.
Seeing TSLA hit these levels makes me feel sick, not excited. Are we really telling ourselves "this time is different," or is anyone else actually building a parachute?
Analyzing M2 Liquidity Overhang and the "Wile E. Coyote" Risk in Current Tech Valuations.
byu/LobsterInevitable980 instocks
Posted by LobsterInevitable980
8 Comments
What would be the catalyst for such a crash?
The economics of AI could be positive. Productivity increases could pay off from that massive upfront investment and it’s possible all the players could make it work economically. People talk about the debt and the circular financing but the hyperscalers are building these data centers because the demand isn’t there – it is.
Man, you’re reading my mind. I trimmed 30% of my TSLA position last week, thinking a correction was coming, and now watching it rip higher every single day is absolutely gut, wrenching. I’m terrified to jump back in, though. It feels exactly like the lead, up to the ARKK collapse in 2021. This constant tug, of war between the FOMO and the fear of being the ultimate bagholder is just too real
Everyone and their momma knows this market is overvalued but nobody gives a damn as long as that green line keeps heading up and to the right…until it doesn’t.
I’m genuinely concerned we will have a repeat of 1970’s inflation which resulted in rate increases to over 20%.
I will give some credit though. At least the tech companies with their high valuations are posting relatively good earnings atm (Tesla not included) but its already beginning to show that AI capex is not generating the ROI needed to justify the current rate of spending.
When there’s talk of launching data centers into orbit around the planet I think we can all agree we are no longer operating in reality.
The Fed has already started cutting rates. You’d have to be crazy to be bearish here. When liquidity comes in, boats naturally rise
You guys love to talk about nonsense! The market is up because dollars are weak, all assets are going to continue to move up ⬆️ 😝
I’ve read the same doom and gloom “america is fucked” during the tariffs dip. How did that turn out for the bears? there was legit one guy that made around one million from the way down then, every week, he got puts, thinking “This pump is fake, we have to go down, the economy is screwed” burning 10-30k per week until there was nothing left.
The market can remain illogical more than you can remain solvent.
We get these posts daily for the last 2 years. Just idiotic at this point.
m2 doesnt go down just like that, in fact the opposite