Below is my thought process for stock selection for CSP.
I. First step is to filter stocks – based on fundamental and technical analysis – that I am fine holding for a long time.
II. I analyze PUTs to sell that have a strike price about 5% under the current market price.
E.g., GOOG market price is now $317.01
5% less is about $300.00
III. I calculate annualized ROI (or ROC) like this:
premium / strike price x 365 / option's Days
Because I lock in the whole capital: strike price x 100. I do have margin, but I prefer to disregard it as I also have to keep extra cash on hand.
JAN 30 '26 GOOG (37 Days) @ strike $300.00 has a bid of 4.50
Giving an annualized ROI of 14.8%
Questions:
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I see many stocks only have monthly options. And you'd choose DCE of 23 or 58 days. Do you also invest in this options? Do you pick 58 days?
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Is 5% strike price under current market price appropriate? How about volatile vs steady stocks? How do you choose it?
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14.8% ROI is pretty low for the risk and a lot of stocks have an even lower ROI. I have found only one with about 20% ROI.
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Am I calculating the ROI wrongly? It is under the assumption that I keep the CSP to expire, which I won't. Does the non-linear theta makes for a better ROI when you get rid of the CSP early?
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Do you calculate ROI differently?
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What are the ROI ranges you condider a acceptable?
Thank you and have a jolly Christmas!
Stock selection for the wheel based on option ROI
byu/StunningBluebird1439 inoptions
Posted by StunningBluebird1439