Still holding Meta Platforms.
Not gonna lie, I’m a bit torn.
The business works.
Ads still print.
Margins surprised me (in a good way).
So I get the bull case.
But at the same time…
they’re spending a lot.
Capex keeps going up.
Data centers everywhere.
AI spend isn’t small anymore.
And yeah, AI helps ads.
But right now it feels more like “making the old machine run better” than unlocking something totally new.
That’s the part I’m stuck on.
I’m not bearish.
I’m not selling.
I’m just not adding either.
Feels like we’re paying today for benefits that might take a while to really show up.
Curious how other holders feel
are you comfortable just letting this ride, or are you also sitting on your hands here?
Holding META… but honestly conflicted
byu/Ok_Acadia_1177 instocks
Posted by Ok_Acadia_1177
25 Comments
Horrible company
Meta is quite certainly the best value play currently with the MAG7
Every single time people bet against Meta, the company has prevailed. Personally, I have been adding.
Edit: I think people tend to forget how massive of a user base Meta truly has. How easy it is for them to deploy AI products to said users. How easy it is to test these products across users.
Stop being emotional woman and hold through the capex spend. META is an A tier business with a huge moat.
I have some meta share but yesterday I spent 15 min on Facebook and now I’m seriously reconsidering
What a cesspool…
In my opinion, to be bullish on Meta, you have to believe one of two things:
A) Something major is going to come from Reality Labs
B) Something major is going to come from their AI spending
Major meaning ~$10B+ annual net income driver. The good news is that if A or B do come true, Meta’s going to be the best Mag 7 stock over the next 5-10 years. But I don’t see hundreds of billions in capex paying off just to have more efficient ads. The business is fundamentally more capital intensive than it used to be. Margins will compress.
So I think you need something. A new product or a new service that drives new, meaningfully profitable lines of business. If not, I don’t see things going well for Meta.
I’m super conflicted on American tech. I think there’s a hidden risk with tech. They are being used by Trump admin and are participating in some pretty significant geopolitical fuckery and I think it’s only a matter of time until countries come down hard on them over it.
I bought more recently. It’s a great company to own a piece of.
My rationalization for holding Meta: Strong financials and a company positioned in future growth markets.
Why I’m really holding Meta: I wouldn’t bet against Zuck and his ambitions.
This is why value investors mess up in the market they don’t like companies investing in growth for some reason unless meta wants to get left behind this is the right choice
It’s the only stock in my portfolio that’s consistently down. My financial advisor basically told me I’m leaving money on the table not adding this to complete my MAG7 subset.
I don’t think Facebook has the long term play that those others have. It’s the one most universally loathed of the bunch. Its valuation is predicated on what its positioned to be versus what it is. I also think it’s one of the least trusted companies by general consumers period.
I was saying that about Tesla not long ago and finally realizing great gains on that one. Facebook Meta to me is vapor and I really wish I didn’t dump $10k into it.
Sell your shares so I can buy more for cheaper
It’s something to keep an eye on but they can afford it. I think that Meta is one of the more dangerous mag 7 stocks, but far from one of the most risky AI stocks in the market. Even after this pullback the stock is up 460% over the past 3 years so there’s no harm in taking profits at this level.
They’re essentially at 2023 levels of Free Cash Flow. In the Trailing Twelve Months compared to FY 2023 their OCF grew from $71B to $107B ($36B) and their Capex grew from $27B to $62B ($35B). Their OCF is growing rapidly (averaging 22% per year since 2020) so they likely are seeing effects of AI, but I always assume that the company will earn 0% return on their AI spend. Would you be happy owning Meta producing $45B in FCF after earning $23B in 2020, $39B in 2021, $19B in 2022, $43B in 2023, $54B in 2024, and $45B in TTM which is close to FY 2025? 37x FCF is too expensive for me to pay especially considering that FCF will likely be lower next year due to increased capex. It’s not something I would want to own, but $45B FCF companies aren’t everywhere and they won’t go out of business if they get no return on their AI spending.
Good poem.
You got to spend a lot to maintain your spot at the top. Meta will rule vr when vr becomes the norm (and it will)
Sell!! Going nowhere but down. Minimize your loses before they get worse. You’re just throwing more and more of your money away, with each day you wait.
Welp. Meta is tied in with Google and Amazon at this point. If you google about a product, th results show Facebook posts now, and then the Facebook shows the Amazon ad. This isn’t by accident. Meta is in the boat. And cheaper than the other two
Reddit said same about Google up until 6 months ago
AI doesn’t need to be sci-fi to be insanely lucrative. Improving their core ad business with AI justifies the expenditure alone.
What’s the difference for meta cash if they invest in Capex o pay dividends? I mean they decide to pay dividends with the cash they earn. After the dividends are paid, logically, the cash amount decreases. If the invest in capex, for the company cash effect, is the same, but they have the opportunity to have returns over it
Im actually expecting a revisit to 600, maybe lower…
!remindme 1 year
Their core platforms print money, that about it
**TL;DR**- Meta is still a safe enough hold, but if you want to change it up and roll the dice, head over to Google for a infinitely better multi-pronged attack in the Ai space.
**main body of rambling**
But their new product development is poor:-
1) rayban displays : predicting failure if they ever reveal numbers next quarter. Even by modest targets.
2) ai models – ***zero*** retail customer traction or business customer traction by Meta.
*bonus* – people’s perception of Meta and the brand, along with Ai surveillance concerns growing, I’d imagine very people really want to explore anything they have to offer in this space.
Number 2 is most worrying. They can definitely use the Ai inference to build new internal tools to improve their main revenue source, but I think the leadership is spending capex & opex like they’re going to be Ai infrastructure, with no indication of such (unlike Google & MSFT’s Azure)
In my opinion (basically worthless, as it’s ‘vibes’ based — but anyway…)
At each of their P/E levels (META / GOOG / MSFT), Goog has the biggest potential upside from their pricing for growth.
At 30:1 for Meta and Google, it’s a *mild* ‘SELL’ for Meta, but a ‘BUY’ for Google. 35:1 for MSFT is a ‘HOLD’.
This is based on what they’re currently generating revenue on and what they ‘might’:
META: Meta’s reasonably achievable future growth is basically turning the crank on existing revenue streams; which are VERY ROBUST revenue streams mind you.
GOOG: has the largest opportunities in productive Ai (*either inference for businesses, or products for retail — AND potential competition in the TPU space with nvidia.
MSFT: has Azure business ***already*** cooking.
Meta is spending like they’re competing for business with Goog and MSFT, but they’re absolutely not, and Zuck is behaving like a child CEO like it’s 2010 again. The better internal inference will definitely net value for them, but given where else you can put your money…
Yeah tbh meta proves itself time and time again in a good way for investors.
I’ve owned it in the past, but i just dont like any of their products, therefore it conflicts me investing in them. Generally it’s a safe move though, and im probably a dummy for it.
How in the world they missed the prediction market? Robinhood is kicking ass rn and world cup is coming
Not touching Meta because I don’t like anything they make or do.