As we all know, MU has been doing exceptionally well this last year and the outlook so far is only up. I've kept almost all of my RSU's and ESPP that I've gotten from MU for the last year or two and needless to say it's grown significantly in size and now I'm not sure what to do with them. Option 1 is just keep them all and ride the wave for as long as I can, but historically MU is very cyclical and when it goes down, it goes down hard. The AI revolution helps with this, but it isn't a cure. Option 2 is sell and diversify into other stuff. Outside of this I follow a typical boglehead strategy and it's worked well for me. I would only sell RSUs first and wait until ESPPs become long term for tax advantages (~6 months for 1 group, 1 year for another).
My holdup is since MU has done so well over the last year, keeping until the new fab(s) come online could have some insane gains that I don't want to miss out on. On the other hand, selling and diversifying gets me all the compounded gains up until the same point, it's a question of which one is likely to make more. I suppose option 3 could be to sell half and keep half to get a piece of both cakes? Not sure, looking for some advice. Thanks.
I kept MU RSU's and ESPP for a few years now, ride the wave or diversify?
byu/Bread_Cactus instocks
Posted by Bread_Cactus
4 Comments
On the one hand, MU, as you state, has always been very cyclical and monster gains have always preceded monster pullbacks. On the other hand, some point out it’s only 7x. As for what you should obviously depends on your assessment but also your overall financial picture. Myself, when considering things will sometimes ask myself if I would put new money into the scenario that I’m considering holding or selling. If I say sure I would or hell no I wouldn’t, that can help.
My own bias and history has been in selling too quickly. It has kept me out of some multibaggers however I like to lock in gains when they’re available and has worked as a get rich slow strategy. Maybe holding MU will give you life changing gains so the rest won’t matter.
Depends on what share it is of your obverall protfolio. In case it’s over 20% I personally would sell, can’t take that kind of risk even if I work and really bellieve in the company.
It’s no different than if you had been buying micron shares for the last couple years you were working. Some analysts are saying it could reach 500. Most say 300 still. There is no way of knowing without a crystal ball.
If you need the cash now, sell and enjoy the profits. If you don’t need the cash now but believe that the price will drop and ~285 is the highest it’s going to go, sell now and move the money into index funds or something. If you think it’s going to go higher, wait.
Everyone is correct here except for one key question and opinion I have. MU is no longer cyclical.
NVDA used to be. It no longer will be. MU has a massive cycle and replacement path ahead of it. Its PE should be commensurate.
Id talk to coworkers and get their opinions.