Over the last 5 years, analysts built 30+ different Bitcoin top indicators.
These tools were all explicitly designed to answer one question:
“Are we at or near a cycle top?”
Here’s the part that’s hard to ignore:
Not a single one triggered since 2021. Zero.
That leaves only two logical conclusions:
1. Every single one of those indicators is bullshit and useless
or
2. The top this cycle is not in
That’s it. There’s no third option.
Could this cycle behave differently? Yes, and by many metrics it has.
Could new market structure change timing? Absolutely, it becomes more and more likely by the day.
Could price chop or correct hard along the way? Of course. What else is new.
But the idea that we’re already at a macro top while none of the historical or newly designed top-detection systems have fired doesn’t hold up logically.
If you believe all indicators are useless, fair take.
But if you believe some signal eventually matters, then the data currently says one thing:
This doesn’t look like the end of the cycle.
30+ Bitcoin “cycle top” indicators. Zero triggered. That leaves only two possibilities.
byu/Whereas-Informal inBitcoin
Posted by Whereas-Informal
24 Comments
It’s probably option 1. With so few cycles, it’s difficult to have reliable signals.
How do the indicators track vs previous “cycle tops”?
I did see that 2 had triggered and then untriggered on cmc. Sorry but can’t remember which ones
This time IS different
I just don’t care about cycles or charts… if I feel btc is undervalued, I buy.
I just believe in btc so if I feel it’s undervalued, it’s getting bought by me.
BTC on a downtrend I buy. On an uptrend I hold and maybe buy more. If anyone could reliably predict the price they would be rich already
Most cycle tops are visible in sentiment, not in indicators. Indicators always lag.
It’s not as volatile as before; there have been large-scale purchases. Even if it falls, I think it will now fall more slowly over a longer period. at least thats what i think
The ETFs have changed everything regarding BTC pricing.
You are better off looking at IBIT option flows instead.
That’s the problem with using small data sets. So any good technical indicator, all you’re doing is compiling a lot of information and seeing how many hits you have. With all of those, you’ve only really had two cycles. 2013 didn’t count, that was 100% manipulated.
Some of the shorter term indicators were triggering though. You have the 1064 that kicked off. You had a lot of daily and weekly Macd signals. It was definitely a far harder cycle but then again a lot of people were expecting it and that’s the thing. When everybody is thinking about selling at 140 to 200, well you got a lot of sellers right under $130. People try to front run each other. We also don’t know just how bad what happened at binance was because it looks like they put in the top. That whole event in early October. Still isn’t completely known what took place or why
But it’s pretty easy to figure out if things are going to continue higher in 2026. You’re going to close above 108,000 on a weekly basis and start moving towards 116. You’re going to pick up a lot of longs if this happens. The more bearish view or what I think is most likely to happen is we’re going to rally up, break 94, head to 98 to 102 potentially as high as 106 short-term, get rejected and down it goes, somewhere around 69,000 by March or April, of course then you get your counter trend rally back up to 80 to 84 and start the next leg lower, probably 55, you start putting in these zones just making lower highs and lower lows until you eventually get to the low of the cycle which is hard to tell but normally lows are fairly easy to identify when they actually happen. 2018 was easy, 2022 was easy, so if we get something obvious this time like Michael saylor having to puke out a bunch of his bitcoin, absolute 100% buy if you’re in that retrace zone somewhere below 45,000 and or if that event causes a sell-off from a $55,000 support, something like that would make a lot of sense
Says: “There’s no third option”. Continues to describe the third option…
We’re not at the top. We’re two months past it
Ok, I’m getting back in the prediction game to see if I can get my first right guess, so far I’m 0 out of a hundred but I’m feeling lucky. It doesn’t feel like the end. Where’s the parabolic run with the epic dump at the end? 150K by mid 26.
Gotta say, option #1 is looking pretty darn convincing.
I mean, option 1 is definitely true. But that doesn’t mean option 2 is false
You ignore the indicator that says the cycle top occurs roughly 18 months after halving. That one actually played out, but the ones that are in denial choose to ignore it. Have fun sitting through another bear cycle.
Cost of living and QT drained retail investors from BTC and options hunters have been shaking out leverage over the past few months. Now that we’re officially back in QE, liquidity will find its way back to BTC in the coming months. Then we’ll see a bullish shift towards the cycle top.
I don’t think the top of the cycle is in either. It’s amazing how pessimistic people got about Bitcoin at times, even people on this sub
I disagree. The most powerful factor in the universe is Time. The time based cycle model says it should top in October 2025. Looks like it did.
Here is the better question “can interpretations of random historical data predict the future”?
No, no it can’t.
Orrrrr institutions are here, there are no more cycles.
Your conclusion is illogical
30+ indicators.
All we need is ONE that actually works. Lol
1 – Why we’re not seeing a rally in all markets except crypto? Likely because 1060 days cycle ended on 6th October 2025
2 – Out of 30 Bull Market Peak indicators, 3 of them are very close to get hit
Bitcoin Dominance: 97%
Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply: 95%
Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply(%): 98%
Source: [https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals](https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals)
3 – If you completely zoom out Bitcoin’s chart – you will see even if Bitcoin price reaches 100k to 110k, and stays there for a while, this would form “Head & Shoulders” text book pattern indicating a strong bearing formation.
Technical analysis and history tells us that we’re in a bear market which can take at least a year to find its bottom (25k to 35k range).
It’s better not to get in right now. Regretting on missed profits are way better than the regret of losing the capital.