The State of Ethereum & Why the 4-Year Cycle Refuses to Die

Every cycle we hear the same thing: “This time is different.”

Different macro, different participants, different tech, different narratives. And yet… the market keeps rhyming.

Ethereum today is objectively stronger than at any point in its history — and paradoxically, price action still looks like it’s obeying the same old cycle logic.

Ethereum’s Fundamentals Have Never Been Better:

This isn’t 2017 ETH. This isn’t even 2021 ETH. This is about the be 2026 ETH and the ETH of the future.

Ethereum is now yield-bearing via staking

Net issuance is structurally lower post-Merge & EIP-1559

L2s are scaling usage without congesting L1

Ethereum has become infrastructure, not a narrative token

ETH is no longer a “hope trade.” It’s a settlement layer for DeFi, Stablecoins, RWAs, Rollups, On-chain finance.

And yet price hasn’t reflected that strength yet.

That disconnect is exactly why people are confused.

Why the 4-Year Cycle Still Appears

The cycle isn’t magic. It’s human behavior & liquidity timing.

Even in a more “mature” market, a few things remain constant:

Liquidity expands and contracts in waves

Risk assets don’t move until excess capital exists. Speculation always lags infrastructure

The tech improves first. The hype comes later.

Psychology resets every bear market

Capitulation then disbelief then boredom then re-risking

Same emotions, different year.

Ethereum doesn’t escape this just because it’s useful but it can somewhat become less shaky in a bear market over time.

ETH isn’t trying to be the fastest horse anymore.

It’s becoming the track. It’s becoming a solid foundation for many projects and useful features.

That changes how it moves: Less reflexive hype, more delayed repricing, more dependency on ecosystem demand.

Historically, ETH tends to underperform early cycle and strengthen once capital rotates from “beta” to “quality” and further catch up when utility starts to matter again

If that pattern holds, ETH isn’t early, it’s loading,

And right now whales are busy loading up their bags.

Meanwhile some People Keep Making the mistake that they expect linear appreciation in a cyclical system.

“ETH is stronger than ever… why isn’t price higher?”

Markets don’t price strength.

They price marginal demand.

And marginal demand shows up late.

But when we buy the dip we setup ETH for further strength, but keep in mind that markets sometimes swings hard and if you have buy orders ready that can pay off very well.

But all in all… Ethereum doesn’t need a new cycle theory.

It needs time for capital to catch up to reality.

The 4-year cycle isn’t only about Bitcoin halving and mining competition.

It’s also about when humans collectively decide risk is acceptable again.

That hasn’t changed and neither has Ethereum’s long-term trajectory. “Too the moon!” Well… I’m not going to the moon but I’m happy with the profits that ETH will bring me.

Hit the comment section with where you think we are right now:

Late disbelief? Early re-risking? Or still stuck in boredom?

And toss in your predictions for 2028!

Here is my guess: ETH $ 8690 Q3 2028