Yeah it really does feel like job growth will be barely up from what it is now and it seems like we’re approaching a low hire and low fire economy so those who are struggling to get jobs may still have issues next year. It’s just a mess and our government is afraid of telling the truth about it to avoid panic and finger pointing and laughing from the other world leaders because we can’t keep our economy under control. Just a nightmare we live in
teshh on
Job creation at the macro level is highly dependent on the economic environment. Today’s environment is dogshit. Between tariffs, trumps chaotic economic decisions, lack of competition, inflation, and fiscal policy, there’s just no reason for businesses to hire right now.
As national debt continues to skyrocket under republic policies, the government will hire less and less people as interest costs eat up revenues.
It’s reported over 1.2 million jobs have been lost this year, 250k of that is from the government alone. Despite cutting so many jobs, the budget deficit grew even more bc trump gave more tax cuts to the rich.
PT14_8 on
Canada went through a jobless recovery following the ’08 recession. At the time Stephen Harper and Jim Flaherty were struggling. Canadian companies were sitting on a hoard of cash and weren’t hiring. At one point Jim Flaherty was openly exasperated with Bay Street and rhetorically lamented that “steps” (a code word for legislative action) may have been necessary.
In 2025, you have US business sitting on a massive pile of cash – some $4 trillion dollars. I think you’ll see a spike in M&A activity in 2026 and as interest rates get cut and the economics of parking cash vs. investing will shift. That’ll move hiring.
One thing I have seen is a return to old form – from the Obama era to just post-COVID there was a shift away from credential hiring (MBA, certifications) and that’s returned with a vengeance. Even in my own hiring, we’ve had inexplicable changes. For PM roles that 3 years ago were a college diploma/certification requirement, we’re looking for MBA or graduate degree. It’s really shifted how we hire and really favored a certain segment.
Edit: fixed wording.
RIP_Soulja_Slim on
If there’s one single truth that will never die regarding anything remotely related to economics, it’s that every single “blah blah blah blah is going to define the next year” piece of commentary written at a given year end will be inevitably proven wrong in one direction or another.
We don’t have crystal balls, by the first quarter conditions could be radically different in any given direction.
ActualSpiders on
A “jobless boom” AKA the fuse burning down to the next massive recession, which will happen once everyone younger than the Boomers/Gen Xers start to hit their credit limits & the stuff they’re buying now gets repo’ed. How will cutting interest rates help when you’re trying to sell 20-somthings with no career path a 50-year mortgage on a $300k 2br starter home? Also, that home is at least 45 min out of town (and any decent-paying jobs), and even used cars are over $30k…
5 Comments
Yeah it really does feel like job growth will be barely up from what it is now and it seems like we’re approaching a low hire and low fire economy so those who are struggling to get jobs may still have issues next year. It’s just a mess and our government is afraid of telling the truth about it to avoid panic and finger pointing and laughing from the other world leaders because we can’t keep our economy under control. Just a nightmare we live in
Job creation at the macro level is highly dependent on the economic environment. Today’s environment is dogshit. Between tariffs, trumps chaotic economic decisions, lack of competition, inflation, and fiscal policy, there’s just no reason for businesses to hire right now.
As national debt continues to skyrocket under republic policies, the government will hire less and less people as interest costs eat up revenues.
It’s reported over 1.2 million jobs have been lost this year, 250k of that is from the government alone. Despite cutting so many jobs, the budget deficit grew even more bc trump gave more tax cuts to the rich.
Canada went through a jobless recovery following the ’08 recession. At the time Stephen Harper and Jim Flaherty were struggling. Canadian companies were sitting on a hoard of cash and weren’t hiring. At one point Jim Flaherty was openly exasperated with Bay Street and rhetorically lamented that “steps” (a code word for legislative action) may have been necessary.
In 2025, you have US business sitting on a massive pile of cash – some $4 trillion dollars. I think you’ll see a spike in M&A activity in 2026 and as interest rates get cut and the economics of parking cash vs. investing will shift. That’ll move hiring.
One thing I have seen is a return to old form – from the Obama era to just post-COVID there was a shift away from credential hiring (MBA, certifications) and that’s returned with a vengeance. Even in my own hiring, we’ve had inexplicable changes. For PM roles that 3 years ago were a college diploma/certification requirement, we’re looking for MBA or graduate degree. It’s really shifted how we hire and really favored a certain segment.
Edit: fixed wording.
If there’s one single truth that will never die regarding anything remotely related to economics, it’s that every single “blah blah blah blah is going to define the next year” piece of commentary written at a given year end will be inevitably proven wrong in one direction or another.
We don’t have crystal balls, by the first quarter conditions could be radically different in any given direction.
A “jobless boom” AKA the fuse burning down to the next massive recession, which will happen once everyone younger than the Boomers/Gen Xers start to hit their credit limits & the stuff they’re buying now gets repo’ed. How will cutting interest rates help when you’re trying to sell 20-somthings with no career path a 50-year mortgage on a $300k 2br starter home? Also, that home is at least 45 min out of town (and any decent-paying jobs), and even used cars are over $30k…