Polymarket Sentiment on ETH has turned bullish for the new year

Short-term is still neutral, but 4H + Daily have turned bullish going into Jan 1 for the first time in days.

15m / Hourly: Neutral

4H: bullish bias

Daily: bullish bias

That’s a noticeable change from Dec 30–31, when everything (15m, hourly, 4H, daily) was very bearish.

The crowd’s recent hit rate has been decent too: traders were “right” about ~60% of the time directionally (not a guarantee, but not noise either). Note: I only count the daily and 4-hour hit rates, not the short-term markets.

PM odds vs “fair” probabilities (edge / hedge angle)

The screenshot compares market-implied odds vs empirical probabilities (based on recent historical outcomes).

In several spots, the market odds are slightly below the empirical probabilities, which can create a small edge (and sometimes a hedging opportunity) if you believe the recent history is a useful baseline and a hedge against positioning.

For ETH > $3,000 the market is pricing:

22% chance at today’s close (Jan 1)

42% by tomorrow (Jan 2)

47% by Jan 5

For ETH > $3,500:

<1% through Jan 5

only a slight chance later:

~2% on Jan 6

~3% on Jan 7

So: Polymarket thinks, holding above $3k is plausible over the next few days, while $3.5k is still a long-shot until late in the week.

Weird pricing quirk (likely liquidity / launch noise)

Interesting Feature: for Jan 7, the probability ETH is above $3,400 is shown lower than the probability it’s above $3,500. That’s backwards logically, and usually happens when markets are thin, e.g., people are bidding 2¢ for 3400 but 3¢ for 3500. It’s common right after launch and typically corrects as trading fills in.

How to read the “probabilities” (for anyone new)

These “probabilities” are just implied by trading prices, on polymarket you buy shares (NFTs) of an outcome. If a YES share trades at $0.22, that’s 22% implied probability, because traders are literally pricing the outcome. Whatever resolves to true gets a 1$ payout; the rest gets nothing. You can sell your shares of course in the time between.