Seeing a lot of hype around the impact of Venezuelan oil on oil markets and U.S. gulf coast refiners. I think folks need to temper down expectations.
Re-routing Venezuela’s 900k bpd from China to U.S. gulf coast refiners is simply a trade shuffle and won’t result in any supply/demand changes for a long time. China will simply buy barrels elsewhere but without the the steep discount they get from Venezuela.
Even optimistic estimates regarding Venezuela production increases put any additional barrels above 900k bpd 3 to 5 years out (Jeffries put out a note on this today).
Personally I am doubling down on safe haven assets such as gold due to the norm-busting stance of the Trump admin. I am adding exposure to gold via GDX and GDXJ. These always higher beta run GLD (I’ve actually never held GLD).
What do you guys think?
Venezuela headlines won’t move markets the way people think
byu/Portlog11 instocks
Posted by Portlog11
9 Comments
Gold is such a bubble
Futures have already opened, and indeed markets are unfazed.
Oil down 0.7%
Natural gas down 4%
isnt oil like 90% of its GDP? if they cut off china, dont someone else needs to buy before the whole country collapse economically
I’m thinking this is just general instability and short term we will see a dip in a lot of sectors.
There’s potential that this opens the door to retaliation. China already told the US to fuck around and find out, the US pulled back on tariffs and then pulled this. This could get get messy in tech hardware.
Disagree. DPRK said they might start testing hydrogen bombs in the ocean in response. Imo the situation is more volatile than people are crediting.
Silver is more attractive than gold imo.
Buying Chevron.
big energy & chevron blowing up…pretty predictable
I am getting a position in aerospace and defense sector this year, I think it can do well. Xar specifically,
Metals should be a decent play too,