Surprise Supreme Court tariff ruling - Which stocks pop or drop?

There is a expectation that the Supreme Court will rule against the Trump Administration even though there will be tariff workarounds which may or may not be the same as the existing tariffs. The new tariffs may also not be as high in some cases as they are now.
Many court Watchers are also expecting that because of the economic importance of this ruling that the ruling will come much sooner than other court rulings for this session.

Questions
1. Who out there is trying to time the ruling on a shorter timeline?
2. What stocks are you watching?

Surprise Supreme Court tariff ruling – Which stocks pop or drop?
byu/MinMadChi instocks

Posted by MinMadChi

mettaCA on January 5, 2026 6:24 am

Any corporation that imports most of their goods should benefit, especially from countries with the highest tariffs.

* **Brazil and India**: Both at **50%** on most imports, among the steepest in the world under the reciprocal tariff framework.
* Other high-rate countries include select nations like Lesotho (up to 50% in some references) and certain penalized partners facing 40–50% effective rates without bilateral deals.

For context:

* Many countries negotiated reductions (e.g., EU at ~15%, Vietnam reduced from 46% to lower via agreements, Switzerland to 15%).
* China faces layered tariffs: legacy Section 301 rates (often 7.5–25% on covered goods), plus additional IEEPA/fentanyl-related duties (reduced to 10% in late 2025 agreements), and potential reciprocal elements—resulting in high but variable effective rates (sometimes exceeding 50% on specific products, though not uniformly 50% baseline).
* Canada and Mexico have exemptions for much trade under USMCA, keeping effective rates lower despite threats.

India:
Major companies importing the highest volumes (based on category dominance and trade patterns):

* **Pharmaceuticals/generic drugs** — Large distributors and chains like CVS Health, Walgreens, McKesson, Cardinal Health, and AmerisourceBergen (now Cencora); they source affordable generics extensively from Indian manufacturers.
* **Textiles and apparel** — Retail giants such as Walmart, Target, Amazon, Gap, and PVH Corp.; they import significant clothing and fabrics.
* **Diamonds and gems** — Jewelry retailers and wholesalers like Signet Jewelers (Kay, Zales), Tiffany & Co. (LVMH), and independent importers; they handle polished diamonds.

Brazil:
Major companies importing the highest volumes:

* **Petroleum/crude oil** → Major refiners like Valero Energy, ExxonMobil, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Chevron.
* **Iron and steel (semi-finished products)** → Steel processors and manufacturers such as Nucor, U.S. Steel, ArcelorMittal USA, and Commercial Metals Company.
* **Coffee** → Roasters and distributors including Starbucks, J.M. Smucker (Folgers), Keurig Dr Pepper, and Nestlé USA.

Surprise Supreme Court tariff ruling – Which stocks pop or drop?

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