Although this outcome isn't guaranteed, it's absolutely certain that markets would react swiftly to this announcement, which is due within the next few months (possibly even days or weeks).
It stands to reason that if tariffs are overturned, importers would benefit significantly. This is because they won't be subject to import fees and will be able to either lower their prices and gain market share, or keep current maintain market share and lower their overhead costs. This includes retailers like Walmart (WMT), Best Buy (BBY), as well as tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Similarly, domestic manufacturing like Nucor steel (NUE) and United States Steel (X) would suffer from this ruling. This is because they will suffer from higher operating costs and will loose profit margins, or ultimately loose market share due to these higher costs.
Others I think will vary over time. For example, Caterpillar (CAT) might suffer initially since they manufature in the US, but they might gain long term due to lower capital overhead.
I think these are all reasonable bets, but who do you think stands to benefit or loose the most? Which stocks would be the most timely to purchase based on other factors? I'm interested mostly in purchasing rather than shorting, but would enjoy takes on both long term and short term gains.
If the Supreme Court rules against Trump and overturnes existing tarriffs, which stocks will benefit the most?
byu/Beneficial_Passage_8 ininvesting
Posted by Beneficial_Passage_8
13 Comments
Probably Nike or elf
They would only strike down the IEEPA tariffs and not the section 232 which deal with metals.
So there would likely be no impact or lesser impact on Nucor and US Steel.
If it’s important enough for Costco to file the lawsuit, I’m pretty sure they would greatly benefit from the refund. I have a feeling they are the few who have been absorbing a lot of the increases.
*lose
TQQQ
Trump owns the Supreme Court
I’m not sure why you think domestic manufacturers would suffer.
Higher imports impact them as well as input costs rise unless all of their supply chain is in the U.S.. The stocks you mentioned all tanked on liberation day as well when the tariffs were announced.
Vladivostock
VNDI – Vandelay Industries
Reverse the stocks that fell the most on “liberation day”
easy answerer. All stocks will benefit. The tariffs are effectively a big tax on all consumers. Once they are lifted consumers will willl see lowe reprices spend less and recover. Once most people recover from this they will have money that can spend.
The market’s already priced this in… they’re illegal, period. There shouldn’t be any major action once the ruling is announced unless – god forbid – the court rules IN FAVOR of Trump. Then it’ll be a bloodbath. But the likelihood of this happening is infinitesimal due to the devastation it would cause.
Well … foreign exporters obviously. I’d bet big on those who have been hit by tariffs the most as those products are the most likely to benefit from a price recuction