I’m holding 250 contracts of the SPY Feb 27 '26 $730 Call for the "Supreme" trade. We are trapped in a time loop, trading at nearly the same level as Halloween and terrified of crossing S&P 7,000, but IV is cooked and the coil is tight. My thesis is that the Supreme Court strikes down tariffs this month (Polymarket odds: 77%), triggering a ~$200B refund that hits corporate balance sheets instantly. This liquidity injection is the "Triple-Bull" catalyst that lights the fuse for the Jan 28 cluster (Fed + Meta/MSFT Earnings) to finally smash through the $700 ceiling towards $730.
https://i.redd.it/8vyu7rfy4tbg1.jpeg
Posted by AdOnly627
7 Comments
There will be no instant refund, this topic was discussed in oral arguments and both sides agree that it will be a mess. So it will definitely take some time.
200B in the stock market is a drop of water in a bucket but good luck my man I support the play 👊
Sir, you know how much 200B is compared to the stock market?
I’ll take the large fries, thanks
I think you’d be better off betting on specific companies as opposed to the market as a whole. I personally like AMZN, WMT, W, LULU, and NKE
Do you have a price target in mind? If you sell that call you can decrease your cost basis and go up in volume.
Or they punt the question until later, they repeal the tariffs but don’t offer refunds (because companies will need to sue for that), they repeal tariffs and offer refund but long bonds spike and still cause a crash.
There is more than one outcome here where you lose and 730 seems a little high for this time of year with as many headwinds as we face. I expect a lot of failed ATHs this year.
So… we’re what? Less than $10 off of the $700 mark. I don’t think we need a special catalyst to get there. Today was probably yet another new all time high (I haven’t checked but seems about right).