Seeing some product rumors today, Perhaps you can search for it yourselves.
That’s where I think the real debate is:
AAPL is still trading at a clear premium, yet revenue growth is slow, iPhone upgrades feel incremental, and services growth while solid isn’t exactly accelerating.
Bulls say:
It’s still the ultimate defensive tech
Massive buybacks ecosystem lock in justify the multiple
Bears say:
Too expensive for single digit growth
More of a “bond proxy” than a growth stock now
Personally, I’m torn. I don’t see a collapse scenario, but I also struggle to see what re-rates AAPL meaningfully higher from here without a new growth driver.
Are you holding AAPL as a core forever position, or is it slowly turning into dead money at these levels?
By the way, I'm a die-hard Apple fan. I've held Apple stock for a very long time. I'm posting this just to see what everyone else thinks.
AAPL price debate: still a “safe premium” or quietly becoming dead money?
byu/Over_Bison_1482 instocks
Posted by Over_Bison_1482
14 Comments
Dead money. Rotten AAPL. Tim Cook rather hangs out with Hollywood celebrities while other tech CEOs learn and study with other experts.
I bet tomorrow is another red day.
Apple has some of the best chip engineers on the planet. So far they’ve been exclusively focused on SoC for their devices, but I wonder what they could do if they branched out… Maybe to AI processing. Thing is, we don’t really know what they’re working on. Maybe they will just stick to their knitting until Tim Cook steps down. A good question is when that might be… would new leadership take them in some new directions?
Dead money. Not enough innovation. Mind you, MSFT went through this, and they brought in an engineer to run the company.
AAPL can come back, look at the history bringing back Steve Jobst.
Made it through the AI hype without going down, no reason for it to fall through now
First, thanks for a long post without the word “AI”.
Apple is the strongest out of the mag7, they will shock the ai world and reclaim the goat spot.
No growth ~40 pe, this market is a joke
Short to medium I wouldn’t say dead but nothing exciting. Long term, I think they’ll make good products with w.e comes out of whys currently going on. I think the risk consumer spending slowing down is still pretty high atm which plays a factor into my opinion. If you don’t think that’s the case, they make products people want and build good chips.
What the question and comments are ignoring is cagr and capital returned to shareholders.
AAPL doesnt need to be in massive growth mode if they’re able to continue to manage the biz with a compound annualized growth rate around 27%, which is the average for the last decade.
AAPL buys back stock. They bought back $110b last year which represent roughly 3.7% of total market cap and pay their .40% div. Last year they very deliberately returned 110% of free cash flow which is very impressive.
This is what entrenched, mature global market leaders with incredible moats, excellent biz execution, diverse pricing power and loyal customers do. AAPL is a COMPOUNDER
Be patient young ones.
PE of 35 for the best and stickiest consumer hardware ecosystem seems fine. It will find revenue in the future.
two upsides for apple right now are 1) foldable this year could drive a supercycle and 2) there is a lot of shakeup happening in leadership that could help push the company in new ways
the biggest risk atm imo is ram prices. if they stay elevated for longer it could become a problem for them.
If you know anyone who works at apple, you know it’s one of the most secretive companies out there. Even within the company, most employees don’t know what new products are being worked on.
One of the things that makes big tech so great is the embedded option on these new ventures. It’s hard to know or predict what they will do next, but they have so much world class and highly paid talent working on things.
So I think it’s very silly to evaluate any of the big tech companies purely on current state. They will ALWAYS be finding or acquiring the next big thing. It just so happens that Apple isn’t as clearly an early beneficiary of the new hot thing (AI) as some of the others. But trust me, they will have their day at some point.
In the world of AI, Apple is becoming a value play……
General rule is that you don‘t bet against the Apple. The ones that did always lost.